Saturday, June 26, 2010

World Cup 2010: Round of Sixteen Predictions

Saturday, 6/26/10, 9 am CDT: Uruguay vs. South Korea

There seems to be some consensus that Uruguay was one of the more impressive teams in the first round. Having not managed to catch any of their three games - one of the few teams of whom that was true - I'm not a real position to disagree, but I would note that they drew 0-0 with France and beat Mexico 1-0, both pretty tepid/standard results. Yes, they beat South Africa 3-0, but South Africa had a man sent off in that game and, their other results notwithstanding, were one of the five weakest sides in the competition. Of course, I can't say any better for South Korea, who looked outstanding in beating Greece in their first game but were subsequently thumped by Argentina and held by a Nigeria side that missed at least two sitters. Plus this tournament isn't being played in South Korea.

Prediction: Uruguay 2, South Korea 1

Saturday, 6/26/10, 1:30 pm CDT: United States vs. Ghana

As you might guess, this game terrifies me. On the one hand, I feel fairly confident that Ghana will have trouble scoring - they've got two goals in this tournament and both were on penalty kicks resulting from handballs in the box. But they're a young, physical team, and the game comes on just two days' rest for the US (for Ghana as well, of course), and - most crucially - Ghana are the sole African side left and will probably have the full force of the crowd behind them barring a few thousand American fans. It's also worth noting that the US haven't exactly had an easy time scoring, although if they ever started banging home all the chances they were ringing up against Algeria I don't know if anyone could beat them. As usual, the key will be not giving up an early goal. Just don't touch any balls in the box, people who aren't Tim Howard.

Prediction: United States 2, Ghana 0 (*gulp*)

Sunday, 6/27/10, 9:00 am CDT: England vs. Germany

Not clear which team will show up for either side. Did England put it together against Slovenia, or were they just facing a side which had expended most of its energy clawing to the top of its group? Is Germany the team that destroyed Australia or the team that limped through games with Serbia and Ghana? England had better make sure its defense is up to snuff, as Miroslav Klose is rested and no doubt ready to go. England's offense, meanwhile, may still be a bit suspect if Wayne Rooney doesn't wake up soon.

Prediction: Germany 1, England 1 (Germany 5-3 on penalties)

Sunday, 6/27/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Argentina vs. Mexico

The Mexicans gave Argentina quite a game four years ago before falling, but I'm just not convinced this Mexican team is all that good. They barely drew 1-1 with South Africa - admittedly in front of a vocal home crowd in the tournament's first match - then coasted past an imploding France before only sort of showing up to face Uruguay. Have they really had to seriously perform yet in this tournament? Argentina hasn't been much tested, of course, and their defense can be suspect, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to score on Mexico pretty much whenever they want.

Prediction: Argentina 3, Mexico 1

Monday, 6/28/10, 9:00 am CDT: Netherlands vs. Slovakia

Slovakia's 3-2 win over Italy was a revelation, but after lackluster performances in a 1-1 draw with New Zealand and 2-0 loss to Paraguay, are they really that good or did they just catch lightning in a bottle? (Or, perhaps, are Italy just that bad?) The Dutch haven't really been tested yet, but it's a big advantage for them to have what amounts to a tune-up game to start the knockouts, rather than their battle with Portugal from 2006.

Prediction: Netherlands 3, Slovakia 0

Monday, 6/28/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Brazil vs. Chile

Based on what we've seen from Chile in the tournament, this should be good, right? Well, until you realize that Chile have actually only scored three goals and were helped greatly by games against two of the tournament's weakest offenses in Switzerland and Honduras. Also, Brazil beat Chile handily in qualifying, twice, both home and away.

Prediction: Brazil 4, Chile 1

Tuesday, 6/29/10, 9:00 am CDT: Paraguay vs. Japan

Paraguay looked decent in the group stage, but don't sleep on Japan after their 3-1 demolition of Denmark. Paraguay have yet to face a potent offense, and while no one would have called Japan that three days ago, their ability to strike on setpieces cannot be questioned, and they'll be tough to beat if they get a lead.

Prediction: Japan 2, Paraguay 1

Tuesday, 6/29/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Spain vs. Portugal

Fitting that the marquee matchup of the round of 16 should also be its final game. Unfortunate that it falls in the middle of a workday. Portugal are a total enigma at this point; they played to a 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast, ostensibly because the two teams were feeling each other out, and then to a 0-0 draw with Brazil, ostensibly because they had no need to go for the win, and in between that they rolled up a 7-0 win, but against the worst team in the field. So can this team score goals when it's not facing North Korea? And what about Spain, which won its test against Chile but didn't always look comfortable in doing so? I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go to penalty kicks because both sides will be terrified of losing so early and will play defensively, although for the sake of fans everywhere I hope I'm wrong. Don't worry - I usually am with stuff like this.

Prediction: Spain 2, Portugal 1 (a.e.t.)

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