In the 2011-12 title-winning season, Manchester City lost their fourth league game of the year on March 11. In 2012-13, they lost their fourth league game on March 16. In neither season did they lose their first league game until December.
This season, Man City just lost their fourth league game of the year. All have been on the road. It's November 10.
Over the past several years, City have been more reliable at home than on the road, but that's hardly surprising - most clubs play better at home (occasional oddities like this year's West Ham excepted). This year, though, their road form has been woeful. It's one thing to cough up a few over the course of the year - City have played six road games so far this campaign and have managed a single win (at Upton Park against the aforementioned West Ham, a 3-1 victory in a battle of the Resistible Force and the Movable Object based on the clubs' respective forms). They're 1-1-4 on the road. More troubling still, three of the four losses can be chalked up to shocking defensive breakdowns - City led 1-0 at Cardiff before conceding three times in the space of half an hour, twice on headers to the same player; they led 1-0 and 2-1 at Villa Park before giving up two goals in three minutes; and they were in line for a hard-fought and well-deserved point at Chelsea before a shocking miscommunication between Joe Hart and Matija Nastasic in stoppage time gifted Fernando Torres the winning goal and resulted in Hart getting dropped as the #1 keeper. Regular service appeared to have been restored with a win at Newcastle in the Capital One Cup (albeit one that took extra time to get resolved), and dominant performances at home against Norwich (7-0) and CSKA Moscow (5-2) made everyone feel better.
And then came today's game, the fourth consecutive 1-0 loss at Sunderland, the goal again owed to a defensive miscue. The Stadium of Light has proven to be a bogey location in recent years for City, but this year's Sunderland team is worse than those past; currently sitting 19th, they had one win coming into today and had scored seven goals while conceding 22. There's generally no shame in a narrow road loss against a team that has set up to defend, but this City team just scored 12 goals in their last two games. Yet this was already their second road shutout of the season (after a 0-0 draw at Stoke in September that at least earned a point), and to a club currently anchored in the relegation zone. In fact, only one of City's four losses this year has come to a club in the top ten - and that was against Chelsea, arguably the least deserved loss of the four.
The season is by no means over. With 19 points, City sit in eighth - but there are 27 games, well over two-thirds of the season, yet to be played, and they are a mere three points behind third-place Southampton (and you will forgive me for not feeling that Southampton are a real threat to finish the year in Champions League position). Too, City are into the knockout stages of the Champions League for the first time, and rather comfortably at that - but having been embarrassed by Bayern Munich in their first group meeting (and that at home), they have yet to really look like a threat to actually win the competition as pundits have been predicting for years.
Frankly, first-year manager Manuel Pellegrini must be heaving a sigh of relief at the ease with which City have qualified for the CL knockouts, because his head would quite likely be on the chopping block already were they once again in danger of failing to progress - the failure to move out of the group stage was undoubtedly a key contribution to the sacking of Roberto Mancini at the end of last season, and Pellegrini's historical overachievement with teams possessing considerably less raw talent than City was equally undoubtedly a key reason why he was hired.
Yet that raw talent has only fitfully been on display. City's home form - 6-0-1 in all competitions, with a scoring record of 31 for and 7 against - has, with the notable exception of the Bayern loss, been stellar. Then there's the road form - 4-1-4 in all competitions, with a scoring record of just 15 goals for and 11 against. City are averaging nearly five goals a game at home (and exactly five if you throw out the Bayern game); on the road, they average less than two. Playing on the road is harder, but is it THAT much harder?
Some of the issue has surely come through injury; the back line seems to shift from game to game, hardly giving the players a chance to get used to each other, and this lack of familiarity has clearly been exposed at times. (Of course, there's no reason why Hart and Nastasic shouldn't have been able to be on the same page against Chelsea.) Counting the keeper, the City defense has been the same in back to back league games just once this season, and Vincent Kompany - the team captain in addition to its best defender, though he bore significant culpability for the Villa loss - has missed most of the games so far. The central defense has at times included Javi Garcia, a holding midfielder woefully unqualified for the role into which he was forced. Martin Demichelis, snapped up late in the transfer window in an attempt to add depth at the back, has only recently come back into the team, and he has not looked especially good so far. For all of City's offensive weapons, for all the money spent on players over the past several years, the defense has really failed at times - despite the fact that it is fundamentally the same defense that has led the league in fewest goals conceded for three years running. The injuries haven't helped. But the depth has not been there.
The last time City lost its fourth game this early in the season, it was 2008-09, and City lost a 3-2 heartbreaker at home to Liverpool. The only player who started that day and today was Micah Richards; the only other players on the team then who are still employed by City are Hart, Zabaleta, and Kompany. This was during the first few months of the Mark Hughes era; the goal scorers for City were Stephen Ireland (now with Hughes at Stoke, three clubs later) and Javier Garrido (currently at Norwich after a stop at Lazio in Serie A). None of those three men have been employed by the club since the 2009-10 season.
So what happened in the 2008-09 season? City lost a total of 18 games that year, finishing in tenth place. It's hard to see the same thing happening with this year's City squad - they have way more talent (even with a few names in common, the list of players who started for City that year includes almost no one who could get into this year's team - Richard Dunne might be useful at the back, and Nigel De Jong is probably capable of playing the Javi Garcia role, and Robinho would surely get some games, but that's about it aside from the four already mentioned), and although this looks like the most balanced Premier League table for a while, I don't see how superior talent won't rise to the top. On the other hand, City's MO over the past few years has been to start like a house on fire, slump a bit over the winter, and then finish strong (not so much last year on that last part, but certainly the previous two). There's not much room to slump over the winter when you've already slumped in the fall.
It's too early to panic, for sure. But it's not too early to start wondering about why this is happening and what exactly needs to change. Perhaps some strengthening of the defense is called for during the January window, but that alone doesn't explain City's road form. They looked sloppy and tired for the first hour-plus against Sunderland today. Some of that is the loss of David Silva, but again, there's way too much money involved for this to be a team so wounded by the loss of one player (though it's noteworthy that he also missed the Stoke game - but then again he didn't play in the 4-1 win over United either, as comprehensive a victory as City have had this year). If Pellegrini thought he was just going to show up and the machine was going to run itself to victory, he's clearly been proven wrong. Now is the time to prove that he's the brilliant tactician who led small-money clubs like Malaga and Villarreal to deep runs in the Champions League and won 96 points (though not the league) in his one year at Real Madrid.
City's next five league matches will tell us a fair amount. They face both Spurs and Arsenal at home (along with Swansea), and have road matches against West Brom (who have already claimed one big scalp this year at Old Trafford and should have had another at Stamford Bridge) and current high-flyers Southampton (who lead the league in fewest goals conceded with just five in their first eleven games). Silva will miss most or all of those games; Kompany may be back for them (but he then needs to stay healthy). City simply cannot afford to lose more games right now. If they drop another two or three of those five (or, God forbid, more), Pellegrini's head will be on the block no matter how the Champions League is going, and it will surely be deserved.
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Carlosing it
So, on Monday, December 6, the Manchester City official club website posted a video interview with Carlos Tevez in which he said all the right things, playing down his supposedly stormy relationship with Roberto Mancini, claiming to be happy in Manchester, and suggesting that the press have blown things like his supposed desire to retire from football soon out of proportion.
Then, this morning, after Tevez missed Saturday's game against West Ham (a 3-1 win) because of suspension related to an accumulation of yellow cards, news started trickling out that Tevez had submitted a transfer request to City which the club had rejected. ESPN Soccernet is now suggesting that Tevez will talk to the press and "blow the lid off" the behind-the-scenes at City and reveal that the club is in fact in the turmoil that the press has been claiming, even as recent wins had seemingly tempered those fears.
To which I would say: GTFO.
Tevez is, undoubtedly, a vital part of the City offense, as he would be at most clubs. But if all the news that's coming out is true - that Tevez, already on one of the richest contracts in England, demanded still more money just to see out the season; that after accepting the captain's armband and insisting in every actual interview that the issues attributed to him were being blown out of proportion, he apparently can't stand being at the club any more - I say dump him. It would be a pain for the rest of the season, for sure. But if this is the behavior of the man chosen as captain of the squad... how can the rest of the players avoid falling into line behind him? If this is leading by example, the club is destined to fracture from the inside, and the owners and Mancini should take pains to stop that happening. (Of course, if the trouble with Tevez is attributable to his relationship with Mancini, one suspects that Mancini will be deemed more expendable.)
Here's my problem. Let's assume that everything coming out today is true. This means that either (a) when Tevez gave the interview last week he was lying through his teeth, or (b) that somehow within the space of a week he changed his mind (perhaps again) and decided that his situation at City was, far from being a happy and successful one, completely unworkable. To which I would say: how is that possible?
Also, okay, Tevez misses his family and this probably informs some of his behavior. The guy is a multi-millionaire. Even if they don't want to or can't live in England, couldn't he afford to fly them over at least occasionally, so he isn't going months without seeing his family? And if they can't or won't leave Argentina for even a few days, maybe he shouldn't have gone to England in the first damn place. Sleep in the bed you made, Carlos. You want to be one of the best players in the world and be paid like it? This is how it goes down. If you don't, I'm sure Boca Juniors would be happy to have you.
It's also possible that the infamous Kia Joorabchian has his fingerprints all over this. City's statement on the transfer request certainly implied as much. The question, though, is what does Joorabchian have to gain? It's highly doubtful that Tevez could make more money anywhere else and City supposedly offered a raise to 250,000 pounds a week which was rejected. With no obvious motive from the agent side, I'm forced to conclude that Tevez is just an utter head case who simply can't deal without having whatever he wants whenever he wants it, no matter how it affects anyone else. To which I say, again, fine: GTFO.
Then, this morning, after Tevez missed Saturday's game against West Ham (a 3-1 win) because of suspension related to an accumulation of yellow cards, news started trickling out that Tevez had submitted a transfer request to City which the club had rejected. ESPN Soccernet is now suggesting that Tevez will talk to the press and "blow the lid off" the behind-the-scenes at City and reveal that the club is in fact in the turmoil that the press has been claiming, even as recent wins had seemingly tempered those fears.
To which I would say: GTFO.
Tevez is, undoubtedly, a vital part of the City offense, as he would be at most clubs. But if all the news that's coming out is true - that Tevez, already on one of the richest contracts in England, demanded still more money just to see out the season; that after accepting the captain's armband and insisting in every actual interview that the issues attributed to him were being blown out of proportion, he apparently can't stand being at the club any more - I say dump him. It would be a pain for the rest of the season, for sure. But if this is the behavior of the man chosen as captain of the squad... how can the rest of the players avoid falling into line behind him? If this is leading by example, the club is destined to fracture from the inside, and the owners and Mancini should take pains to stop that happening. (Of course, if the trouble with Tevez is attributable to his relationship with Mancini, one suspects that Mancini will be deemed more expendable.)
Here's my problem. Let's assume that everything coming out today is true. This means that either (a) when Tevez gave the interview last week he was lying through his teeth, or (b) that somehow within the space of a week he changed his mind (perhaps again) and decided that his situation at City was, far from being a happy and successful one, completely unworkable. To which I would say: how is that possible?
Also, okay, Tevez misses his family and this probably informs some of his behavior. The guy is a multi-millionaire. Even if they don't want to or can't live in England, couldn't he afford to fly them over at least occasionally, so he isn't going months without seeing his family? And if they can't or won't leave Argentina for even a few days, maybe he shouldn't have gone to England in the first damn place. Sleep in the bed you made, Carlos. You want to be one of the best players in the world and be paid like it? This is how it goes down. If you don't, I'm sure Boca Juniors would be happy to have you.
It's also possible that the infamous Kia Joorabchian has his fingerprints all over this. City's statement on the transfer request certainly implied as much. The question, though, is what does Joorabchian have to gain? It's highly doubtful that Tevez could make more money anywhere else and City supposedly offered a raise to 250,000 pounds a week which was rejected. With no obvious motive from the agent side, I'm forced to conclude that Tevez is just an utter head case who simply can't deal without having whatever he wants whenever he wants it, no matter how it affects anyone else. To which I say, again, fine: GTFO.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
City 3-0 Liverpool
Quite the coming-out party. I was unsure of what to expect following the Spurs game; Spurs are good, of course, and the game was at White Hart Lane where they rarely lose (only seven times over the last two seasons, and they seem to step it up for big games; of the three losses last year, two came to Stoke and Wolves, and they beat Arsenal and Chelsea in a four-day span to set up the win over City at CoMS to clinch fourth). But even with that in mind, City looked disjointed, a rare offensive threat, and their defense resembled matadors; but for the heroics of Joe Hart, surely the game would have finished 3-0 or 4-0 like so many this season already have. And City had not defeated Liverpool in the last four Premiership campaigns; 0-0 draws were something of a regularity. I thought, in spite of the game being at home where City are usually much better, that a draw would be a good result; the next three games are against more or less bottom-half sides, and it seemed that so long as City could stay unbeaten against the upper-echelon sides while their team gelled, this would bode well for the future.
Well, either Liverpool are just not very good this year, or the future truly is now. A City side that looked like it had never played together before (and probably hadn't) in the first game suddenly looked composed and assured, having the lion's share of possession thanks to crisp passing and largely excellent midfield defense that snuffed out most Liverpool attacks before they had a chance to go anywhere. The formation was interesting - a 4-3-3 that played more like a Tower of Hanoi, 4-3-2-1, with Lescott, Kompany, Kolo Toure and Richards across the back, Barry, De Jong and Yaya Toure in the middle, Johnson and the recently-arrived Milner as attacking wingers and Tevez up front as the lone true striker. Tevez returned to his previous form, scoring twice, the first a bit of a poach off Richards' 52nd-minute header that Tevez barely got a touch on (if he even did; I'll be interested to see if the FA bother altering the ruling) and the second a well-struck penalty in the 68th. Barry had opened the scoring after some nice buildup, with Johnson springing Milner along the right side of the area and Milner's cross falling right to the feet of a charging Barry. Joe Hart also had his second straight highlight-reel cluster of saves as he twice denied Liverpool from close range near the hour mark to preserve the 2-0 lead.
Johnson, to me, confirmed that he should not only be starting but should probably be playing every minute for which he is fit and able, at least within the league. His play was outstanding and he's a constant threat to create. Milner likewise had an impressive debut that suggests he should be in the side on a regular basis, as he was a force to be reckoned with at both ends, creating chances but also flying back on defense when needed.
All this does have me a little nervous in terms of the squad's depth, however. Given how good the team looked playing together in this game, how could you make changes? But with players like Adebayor, Balotelli, Wright-Phillips and David Silva on the bench... how can you not? If you want to keep these guys, they have to play. I'll be curious to see who starts the return leg against FC Timisoara this Thursday; with a Sunday game at Sunderland looming, I wouldn't be surprised to see Adebayor or Balotelli (assuming his knee is okay) get a start, and possibly even Given, who desperately needs to be placated with playing time if there's to be any hope of keeping him around.
Nevertheless, I suppose "too many good players" is not the worst problem one can have. City have set the marker, and now they have to keep meeting that expectation. Falling asleep against lesser sides, as they sometimes did under Mark Hughes in the first half of last season, will not be tolerated. And with the next two months of matches providing a real combination of strong home tests (Chelsea and Arsenal) and road games that should be still be easily winnable (at Wigan, at Sunderland, at Blackpool, at Wolves), City have a chance to declare their intention to take a real shot at the title. The Chelsea game, in particular, an early-morning kickoff in the US on September 25, will tell us a lot. Beating Liverpool is good. But beating Chelsea - as City actually did twice last season - means that the blue side of Manchester is likely here to stay.
Well, either Liverpool are just not very good this year, or the future truly is now. A City side that looked like it had never played together before (and probably hadn't) in the first game suddenly looked composed and assured, having the lion's share of possession thanks to crisp passing and largely excellent midfield defense that snuffed out most Liverpool attacks before they had a chance to go anywhere. The formation was interesting - a 4-3-3 that played more like a Tower of Hanoi, 4-3-2-1, with Lescott, Kompany, Kolo Toure and Richards across the back, Barry, De Jong and Yaya Toure in the middle, Johnson and the recently-arrived Milner as attacking wingers and Tevez up front as the lone true striker. Tevez returned to his previous form, scoring twice, the first a bit of a poach off Richards' 52nd-minute header that Tevez barely got a touch on (if he even did; I'll be interested to see if the FA bother altering the ruling) and the second a well-struck penalty in the 68th. Barry had opened the scoring after some nice buildup, with Johnson springing Milner along the right side of the area and Milner's cross falling right to the feet of a charging Barry. Joe Hart also had his second straight highlight-reel cluster of saves as he twice denied Liverpool from close range near the hour mark to preserve the 2-0 lead.
Johnson, to me, confirmed that he should not only be starting but should probably be playing every minute for which he is fit and able, at least within the league. His play was outstanding and he's a constant threat to create. Milner likewise had an impressive debut that suggests he should be in the side on a regular basis, as he was a force to be reckoned with at both ends, creating chances but also flying back on defense when needed.
All this does have me a little nervous in terms of the squad's depth, however. Given how good the team looked playing together in this game, how could you make changes? But with players like Adebayor, Balotelli, Wright-Phillips and David Silva on the bench... how can you not? If you want to keep these guys, they have to play. I'll be curious to see who starts the return leg against FC Timisoara this Thursday; with a Sunday game at Sunderland looming, I wouldn't be surprised to see Adebayor or Balotelli (assuming his knee is okay) get a start, and possibly even Given, who desperately needs to be placated with playing time if there's to be any hope of keeping him around.
Nevertheless, I suppose "too many good players" is not the worst problem one can have. City have set the marker, and now they have to keep meeting that expectation. Falling asleep against lesser sides, as they sometimes did under Mark Hughes in the first half of last season, will not be tolerated. And with the next two months of matches providing a real combination of strong home tests (Chelsea and Arsenal) and road games that should be still be easily winnable (at Wigan, at Sunderland, at Blackpool, at Wolves), City have a chance to declare their intention to take a real shot at the title. The Chelsea game, in particular, an early-morning kickoff in the US on September 25, will tell us a lot. Beating Liverpool is good. But beating Chelsea - as City actually did twice last season - means that the blue side of Manchester is likely here to stay.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Spurs 0-0 City
First game of the new season, first real City game for a lot of new boys... and it sure looked like it. The first half was a real high-wire act, with Joe Hart (perhaps cemented as the #1 keeper by virtue of being picked today) saving City's bacon on several occasions. Good job by Vincent Kompany at the back as well.
The outfield started in a 4-5-1, with Richards, Kolo Toure, Kompany and Kolarov across the back. The crowded midfield started De Jong, Yaya Toure, Barry, Silva and Wright-Phillips, with Tevez a lone striker up top. While a strong lineup by most standards, it was clear from the outset that these guys simply had not spent much time playing together. In the first half, a sprightly Tottenham side went on blazing runs, intercepted passes, and probably should have scored at least three or four times but for some outstanding work from Hart and one save by the post. The City back four at least played well (a much more impressive showing than they delivered in the preseason, as a unit), but the stacked midfield just seemed disjointed. It didn't help when Micah Richards came flying forward, as is his wont, although David Silva seemed almost to be moving into a striking position at times as well.
The second half was an improvement. City moved the ball better and had a lot more possession, but they still gave away some big chances and really never looked seriously like scoring themselves. Things improved a bit after the introduction of Adam Johnson for Wright-Phillips with 25 minutes or so to play, and while Emmanuel Adebayor will probably not be thrilled that he was only on for the last ten minutes, he was probably more threatening in that short span than Tevez was for most of the game. (Tevez was playing as though Gonzalo Higuain were still waiting in the box. Not sure he can keep playing as a lone striker if he remains so deep.)
Not the worst start overall considering that the side clearly will need to gain cohesion as the season goes along and considering City's recent lack of success against Spurs. Still, you'd have to admit that City were fairly lucky to come away with a draw.
Stray thoughts:
* Now that it seems Joe Hart has been selected as City's #1, whither Shay Given? Will he indeed force his way out? Could Mancini possibly throw just enough starts - between a few off-days for Hart and ideally deep runs in the Europa League and the two cups - Given's way to keep him happy? Is he sold or loaned out? Does he go to Arsenal? Could City possibly justify letting a viable #1 keeper go to a theoretical rival for top-four places?
* Will Mancini stay in a 4-5-1? Especially if Tevez isn't going to be as aggressive into the box, I don't know if you can play him alone. The problem with a 4-4-2 is how overstocked that midfield is. I think Johnson should be starting, but assuming that Yaya Toure and David Silva have to start pretty much every game, that only leaves room for one defensive midfielder (De Jong or Barry). Of course, when you assemble this much offensive talent, that's sort of what happens. With Balotelli now signed, I don't know how you can't play 4-4-2; with the money spent and his potentially volatile personality - and the presumption that he didn't leave his home country of Italy just to keep sitting on the bench - it seems like he has to get a fair number of starts, but at only 20 years old and fairly unproven I don't know how you play him as a lone striker. On the other hand, if you look at the forwards likely to be in City's final 25, it seems like it will be pretty much just three - Tevez, Adebayor, and Balotelli. You might be able to get away with only playing one at a time - start one, bring the second on for fresh legs late, start the third in the next game, or something like that. But all three seem like guys who have to be playing. Mancini asked for this problem, so hopefully he can manage it.
* It's amazing how much has changed since I started following this team. My first full season was 2005-06. Joey Barton was probably the best player on that team; the big offensive weapons brought in before the season were Darius Vassell and an aging Andrew Cole. They finished 15th in the league and fell at the first Carling Cup hurdle to Doncaster in a game I listened to live on the radio which, perversely, cemented my nascent City fandom. Since then, City are on their fourth manager and have had two major changes of ownership. I believe there's only one player in the squad who was with the '05-'06 squad - Micah Richards, and he was 17 at the time. (There is also Stephen Ireland, but he is quite clearly on the way out.)
In some respects this can make it harder to be a fan. On the other hand, would I rather follow a team that spends big and has a shot at winning trophies, or a team that barely spends at all, whose big signings are older guys pulled off the scrap heap or second- and third-tier players considered surplus to requirements at competing clubs? I certainly didn't pick City expecting them to turn into what they have, but what fan doesn't want their club to have the best chance of winning all its games? I just hope Mancini can keep harmony in the team as they reach for trophies, because I will say that the one thing that could make a winning season much less fun is constant tabloid speculation about the players. I suppose at this point that kind of comes with the territory, though.
The outfield started in a 4-5-1, with Richards, Kolo Toure, Kompany and Kolarov across the back. The crowded midfield started De Jong, Yaya Toure, Barry, Silva and Wright-Phillips, with Tevez a lone striker up top. While a strong lineup by most standards, it was clear from the outset that these guys simply had not spent much time playing together. In the first half, a sprightly Tottenham side went on blazing runs, intercepted passes, and probably should have scored at least three or four times but for some outstanding work from Hart and one save by the post. The City back four at least played well (a much more impressive showing than they delivered in the preseason, as a unit), but the stacked midfield just seemed disjointed. It didn't help when Micah Richards came flying forward, as is his wont, although David Silva seemed almost to be moving into a striking position at times as well.
The second half was an improvement. City moved the ball better and had a lot more possession, but they still gave away some big chances and really never looked seriously like scoring themselves. Things improved a bit after the introduction of Adam Johnson for Wright-Phillips with 25 minutes or so to play, and while Emmanuel Adebayor will probably not be thrilled that he was only on for the last ten minutes, he was probably more threatening in that short span than Tevez was for most of the game. (Tevez was playing as though Gonzalo Higuain were still waiting in the box. Not sure he can keep playing as a lone striker if he remains so deep.)
Not the worst start overall considering that the side clearly will need to gain cohesion as the season goes along and considering City's recent lack of success against Spurs. Still, you'd have to admit that City were fairly lucky to come away with a draw.
Stray thoughts:
* Now that it seems Joe Hart has been selected as City's #1, whither Shay Given? Will he indeed force his way out? Could Mancini possibly throw just enough starts - between a few off-days for Hart and ideally deep runs in the Europa League and the two cups - Given's way to keep him happy? Is he sold or loaned out? Does he go to Arsenal? Could City possibly justify letting a viable #1 keeper go to a theoretical rival for top-four places?
* Will Mancini stay in a 4-5-1? Especially if Tevez isn't going to be as aggressive into the box, I don't know if you can play him alone. The problem with a 4-4-2 is how overstocked that midfield is. I think Johnson should be starting, but assuming that Yaya Toure and David Silva have to start pretty much every game, that only leaves room for one defensive midfielder (De Jong or Barry). Of course, when you assemble this much offensive talent, that's sort of what happens. With Balotelli now signed, I don't know how you can't play 4-4-2; with the money spent and his potentially volatile personality - and the presumption that he didn't leave his home country of Italy just to keep sitting on the bench - it seems like he has to get a fair number of starts, but at only 20 years old and fairly unproven I don't know how you play him as a lone striker. On the other hand, if you look at the forwards likely to be in City's final 25, it seems like it will be pretty much just three - Tevez, Adebayor, and Balotelli. You might be able to get away with only playing one at a time - start one, bring the second on for fresh legs late, start the third in the next game, or something like that. But all three seem like guys who have to be playing. Mancini asked for this problem, so hopefully he can manage it.
* It's amazing how much has changed since I started following this team. My first full season was 2005-06. Joey Barton was probably the best player on that team; the big offensive weapons brought in before the season were Darius Vassell and an aging Andrew Cole. They finished 15th in the league and fell at the first Carling Cup hurdle to Doncaster in a game I listened to live on the radio which, perversely, cemented my nascent City fandom. Since then, City are on their fourth manager and have had two major changes of ownership. I believe there's only one player in the squad who was with the '05-'06 squad - Micah Richards, and he was 17 at the time. (There is also Stephen Ireland, but he is quite clearly on the way out.)
In some respects this can make it harder to be a fan. On the other hand, would I rather follow a team that spends big and has a shot at winning trophies, or a team that barely spends at all, whose big signings are older guys pulled off the scrap heap or second- and third-tier players considered surplus to requirements at competing clubs? I certainly didn't pick City expecting them to turn into what they have, but what fan doesn't want their club to have the best chance of winning all its games? I just hope Mancini can keep harmony in the team as they reach for trophies, because I will say that the one thing that could make a winning season much less fun is constant tabloid speculation about the players. I suppose at this point that kind of comes with the territory, though.
Monday, July 05, 2010
Semifinal predictions
7/6/10, 1:30 pm CT: Netherlands vs. Uruguay
The Netherlands have to be heavy favorites here. Uruguay, for my money, have defeated what were probably the worst teams available to play in each round; only Slovakia could give South Korea a run for worst Round of 16 qualifier and Paraguay - who had a much more impressive defense - are the only team that fall into Ghana's category in the quarters, with the remainder of the bunch (bar Uruguay) being top ten sides. At the same time, I'm still not convinced we know just how good the Dutch are; even in beating Brazil, they looked mediocre in the first half and their second half surge came via some slack Brazilian defending and then an utter mental collapse on the part of the Brazilians. But the Dutch are clearly better than Uruguay, especially since Uruguay - the only South American side still standing; who would have thought? - will be without attacking threat Luis Suarez due to his red card against Ghana.
Prediction: Netherlands 2, Uruguay 1
7/7/10, 1:30 pm CT: Germany vs. Spain
We all thought Germany/Argentina would be the game of the tournament, and it was a rout. This game shows promise to take the mantle, but I'm a bit worried for Spain here. They haven't been a high-flying offense in the tournament - blanked by Switzerland, two goals each against Honduras and Chile, a goal each against Portugal and Paraguay - and while that may be due in part to the defense of their opponents, how convincing can you be winning your games 1-0 and 1-0 while Germany have won 4-1 and 4-0? We know Germany can be shut down by the right defense - Serbia blanked them - but is Spain that defense? The Germans are confident, they have pace, they won't be intimidated by Spanish possession. Spain have to score more than one goal this time out, or it's into the third-place game for them, and we get our rematch of the 1974 final. I want Spain to win, but my head is finding it hard to pick them right now.
Prediction: Germany 3, Spain 1
The Netherlands have to be heavy favorites here. Uruguay, for my money, have defeated what were probably the worst teams available to play in each round; only Slovakia could give South Korea a run for worst Round of 16 qualifier and Paraguay - who had a much more impressive defense - are the only team that fall into Ghana's category in the quarters, with the remainder of the bunch (bar Uruguay) being top ten sides. At the same time, I'm still not convinced we know just how good the Dutch are; even in beating Brazil, they looked mediocre in the first half and their second half surge came via some slack Brazilian defending and then an utter mental collapse on the part of the Brazilians. But the Dutch are clearly better than Uruguay, especially since Uruguay - the only South American side still standing; who would have thought? - will be without attacking threat Luis Suarez due to his red card against Ghana.
Prediction: Netherlands 2, Uruguay 1
7/7/10, 1:30 pm CT: Germany vs. Spain
We all thought Germany/Argentina would be the game of the tournament, and it was a rout. This game shows promise to take the mantle, but I'm a bit worried for Spain here. They haven't been a high-flying offense in the tournament - blanked by Switzerland, two goals each against Honduras and Chile, a goal each against Portugal and Paraguay - and while that may be due in part to the defense of their opponents, how convincing can you be winning your games 1-0 and 1-0 while Germany have won 4-1 and 4-0? We know Germany can be shut down by the right defense - Serbia blanked them - but is Spain that defense? The Germans are confident, they have pace, they won't be intimidated by Spanish possession. Spain have to score more than one goal this time out, or it's into the third-place game for them, and we get our rematch of the 1974 final. I want Spain to win, but my head is finding it hard to pick them right now.
Prediction: Germany 3, Spain 1
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Quarterfinal recap
Uruguay 1-1 Ghana (Uruguay 4-2 pens)
Oh, the controversy in the wake of this one. Ghana took a 1-0 lead just before halftime via a Sulley Muntari blast from distance that caught Fernando Muslera napping in the Uruguay goal; Diego Forlan tied things up in the 55th with a perfect free kick. And then the game went on... and on... and on... and finally, things seemed to be going Ghana's way late. They were chasing a goal, and they were pushing into the Uruguayan box, and the ball was headed over the line... and Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez, who amazingly was back defending the goal line, reached up and swatted the ball away with his hands. It was, of course, a red card and a penalty kick... but Asamoah Gyan, the hero of the US game and a man who had already scored twice from the penalty spot during the World Cup with the winning goal against Serbia and the tying goal against Australia - both penalties the result of handballs in the box as well, and one on the line though not as definitely deliberate as Suarez's, missed the kick. Gyan stepped up and had Muslera, diving to his left, fooled; at least two-thirds of the goal gaped for Gyan to virtually tap home. And instead, he blasted it off the crossbar. We were headed for a shootout.
There is, of course, nothing quite as poetically unfair as the penalty shootout in soccer. You don't need to be the best team on the day - if you can manage to get it to a shootout, you basically have as good a chance to win as the other team does. In 2005, Man City lost in a shootout to Doncaster Rovers, then in League One (the third division of English football), when Doncaster's backup goalie got insanely hot out of nowhere and stopped every penalty City took, even though they had by no means been the better team on the day. Whether Uruguay had played better than Ghana is arguable; the Ghanaians certainly had more shots, although Uruguay had more corner kicks (suggesting better shot quality and/or more attacking pressure), and the possession was fairly even. And to say that the team that is better at shooting penalties deserves to win isn't really the way to go, in my opinion. But with that said, Uruguay were unquestionably better at shooting penalties. Gyan stepped up for Ghan and slotted home, placing the ball in an unsaveable location in the top right corner, presumably what he had been hoping to do in the first place. Steven Appiah, second up for Ghana, also converted. But John Mensah went third and took one of the worst penalty attempts you will ever see. Muslera saved it; I suspect I could have saved it. It was awful. Uruguay missed their fourth kick, Maxi Pereira hitting the ball into about the 20th row, but Dominic Adiyiah - who had been denied the winning goal by Suarez's handball - hit a shot that was little better than Mensah's, and Muslera saved that too. Uruguay made their next kick (a vicious little chip from Sebastian Abreu) and that was that.
The topic of debate then centered on Suarez's handball. He was decried as a cheat; people screamed about how Ghana were robbed of a rightful win by his actions. This was, of course, true in some ways. But it's been my position that to call Suarez a cheat completely overlooks the fact that everything that happened was in complete accordance with the rules of the game. According to the rules of the game, an intentional handball in the box means a red card for the offender and a penalty kick to the aggrieved team. If you assume that Suarez was thinking at all - personally, I think it was simply an instinctive reaction that probably didn't spend much time in his brain at all - presumably he was thinking that by stopping the ball, he was momentarily preserving his team's chances. By forcing Ghana to make a penalty kick instead, he was at least leaving the door open; by simply stepping aside because he could not reach the ball with a legal part of his body, he was dooming his team to defeat.
This, it is claimed, is cheating. But I don't really agree. It is, it seems to me, gamesmanship. What Suarez did was completely within the rules - in the sense that, yes, he made an illegal play, but he was also thoroughly punished for it in the way the rules of the game prescribe. He was ejected; Ghana were given a free shot at the goal. As it happens, Asamoah Gyan completely blew the kick. If Gyan makes it, are we talking about Suarez? Doubtful. Would we be talking about this if Suarez had brought Adiyiah down from behind on a breakaway? No; he'd probably be praised for denying the sure goal and forcing Ghana to make the spot kick. The only real difference here is that we can all say with certainty that if Suarez isn't standing there, the ball goes in. But, again, what happened fell within the rules, and Ghana blew it. Should the rules be changed? Maybe, although I think that that's an overreaction to a single episode in the first place and gives the referee a dangerous amount of subjective power to award "clear goals" in the second. Ultimately, Ghana really have no one to blame for their exit but themselves; while penalty kicks are by no means gimmes, they had two-thirds of a gaping net from twelve yards to win the game and couldn't hit it.
Netherlands 2-1 Brazil
A pretty shocking result, all told. I only saw part of this game, and it was in the first half with Brazil up 1-0 and looking more or less in control. Things unraveled in the second, with severe miscommunication between defender Felipe Melo and keeper Julio Cesar leading to a rather hopeful Wesley Sneijder ball finding its way into the back of the net to equalize, and Sneijder knocking in a header on which the Brazilian defenders seemed completely unprepared and Cesar barely moved. Melo compounded his woes by getting sent off for stamping on Arjen Robben, and the Brazilians completely fell apart. Suddenly the Dutch must be favorites to get to the finals... where a 1974 revenge match could await them.
Germany 4-0 Argentina
I'm honestly not sure whether this result is more or less shocking than the Netherlands winning, though ultimately I would say less because Germany so dominated the entire game that it would have been incredible if they hadn't won. Argentina's defense finally showed its true colors; facing a quick offense packed with clinical finishers, the back line had no chance. Germany's own defense, which some had questioned, certainly showed up; while Argentina had more shots on goal than the Germans, not one of the seven gave Manuel Neuer any real trouble - the Argentinians didn't have a single shot from inside the German six-yard box, while three of the four German goals were inside the six-yard box and the fourth only about two yards beyond. Messi and Tevez, whose pace had so devastated the other teams they'd faced, were largely non-factors in this game. After seeing this result, one begins to wonder how the Germans can be stopped.
Spain 1-0 Paraguay
As weird a game as you're going to see. Spain, typically, dominated possession but had a hard time cracking Paraguay's defense. Paraguay, less typically, had some good chances to score and perhaps should have in the first half, an effort called back for what seemed to be a fairly dodgy offsides. In the second half, Paraguay earned a penalty, which Iker Casillas saved; almost immediately, Spain earned a penalty at the other end. Xabi Alonso scored, but it was called back for encroachment (which probably should have happened on the Paraguayan PK, necessitating a retake as well); on the second attempt, Alonso's kick - a much poorer attempt than his first - was saved by Justo Villar (who then may have gotten away with a penalty-worthy takedown of Cesc Fabregas as the two went for the rebound). And then when Spain finally scored, in the 83rd minute, it was only after Pedro hit the post; David Villa's rebound bounced off both posts before finally deciding to settle into the net. Ultimately you have to say the better team won, but Paraguay were certainly game. Perhaps they all had Larissa Riquelme in mind.
Oh, the controversy in the wake of this one. Ghana took a 1-0 lead just before halftime via a Sulley Muntari blast from distance that caught Fernando Muslera napping in the Uruguay goal; Diego Forlan tied things up in the 55th with a perfect free kick. And then the game went on... and on... and on... and finally, things seemed to be going Ghana's way late. They were chasing a goal, and they were pushing into the Uruguayan box, and the ball was headed over the line... and Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez, who amazingly was back defending the goal line, reached up and swatted the ball away with his hands. It was, of course, a red card and a penalty kick... but Asamoah Gyan, the hero of the US game and a man who had already scored twice from the penalty spot during the World Cup with the winning goal against Serbia and the tying goal against Australia - both penalties the result of handballs in the box as well, and one on the line though not as definitely deliberate as Suarez's, missed the kick. Gyan stepped up and had Muslera, diving to his left, fooled; at least two-thirds of the goal gaped for Gyan to virtually tap home. And instead, he blasted it off the crossbar. We were headed for a shootout.
There is, of course, nothing quite as poetically unfair as the penalty shootout in soccer. You don't need to be the best team on the day - if you can manage to get it to a shootout, you basically have as good a chance to win as the other team does. In 2005, Man City lost in a shootout to Doncaster Rovers, then in League One (the third division of English football), when Doncaster's backup goalie got insanely hot out of nowhere and stopped every penalty City took, even though they had by no means been the better team on the day. Whether Uruguay had played better than Ghana is arguable; the Ghanaians certainly had more shots, although Uruguay had more corner kicks (suggesting better shot quality and/or more attacking pressure), and the possession was fairly even. And to say that the team that is better at shooting penalties deserves to win isn't really the way to go, in my opinion. But with that said, Uruguay were unquestionably better at shooting penalties. Gyan stepped up for Ghan and slotted home, placing the ball in an unsaveable location in the top right corner, presumably what he had been hoping to do in the first place. Steven Appiah, second up for Ghana, also converted. But John Mensah went third and took one of the worst penalty attempts you will ever see. Muslera saved it; I suspect I could have saved it. It was awful. Uruguay missed their fourth kick, Maxi Pereira hitting the ball into about the 20th row, but Dominic Adiyiah - who had been denied the winning goal by Suarez's handball - hit a shot that was little better than Mensah's, and Muslera saved that too. Uruguay made their next kick (a vicious little chip from Sebastian Abreu) and that was that.
The topic of debate then centered on Suarez's handball. He was decried as a cheat; people screamed about how Ghana were robbed of a rightful win by his actions. This was, of course, true in some ways. But it's been my position that to call Suarez a cheat completely overlooks the fact that everything that happened was in complete accordance with the rules of the game. According to the rules of the game, an intentional handball in the box means a red card for the offender and a penalty kick to the aggrieved team. If you assume that Suarez was thinking at all - personally, I think it was simply an instinctive reaction that probably didn't spend much time in his brain at all - presumably he was thinking that by stopping the ball, he was momentarily preserving his team's chances. By forcing Ghana to make a penalty kick instead, he was at least leaving the door open; by simply stepping aside because he could not reach the ball with a legal part of his body, he was dooming his team to defeat.
This, it is claimed, is cheating. But I don't really agree. It is, it seems to me, gamesmanship. What Suarez did was completely within the rules - in the sense that, yes, he made an illegal play, but he was also thoroughly punished for it in the way the rules of the game prescribe. He was ejected; Ghana were given a free shot at the goal. As it happens, Asamoah Gyan completely blew the kick. If Gyan makes it, are we talking about Suarez? Doubtful. Would we be talking about this if Suarez had brought Adiyiah down from behind on a breakaway? No; he'd probably be praised for denying the sure goal and forcing Ghana to make the spot kick. The only real difference here is that we can all say with certainty that if Suarez isn't standing there, the ball goes in. But, again, what happened fell within the rules, and Ghana blew it. Should the rules be changed? Maybe, although I think that that's an overreaction to a single episode in the first place and gives the referee a dangerous amount of subjective power to award "clear goals" in the second. Ultimately, Ghana really have no one to blame for their exit but themselves; while penalty kicks are by no means gimmes, they had two-thirds of a gaping net from twelve yards to win the game and couldn't hit it.
Netherlands 2-1 Brazil
A pretty shocking result, all told. I only saw part of this game, and it was in the first half with Brazil up 1-0 and looking more or less in control. Things unraveled in the second, with severe miscommunication between defender Felipe Melo and keeper Julio Cesar leading to a rather hopeful Wesley Sneijder ball finding its way into the back of the net to equalize, and Sneijder knocking in a header on which the Brazilian defenders seemed completely unprepared and Cesar barely moved. Melo compounded his woes by getting sent off for stamping on Arjen Robben, and the Brazilians completely fell apart. Suddenly the Dutch must be favorites to get to the finals... where a 1974 revenge match could await them.
Germany 4-0 Argentina
I'm honestly not sure whether this result is more or less shocking than the Netherlands winning, though ultimately I would say less because Germany so dominated the entire game that it would have been incredible if they hadn't won. Argentina's defense finally showed its true colors; facing a quick offense packed with clinical finishers, the back line had no chance. Germany's own defense, which some had questioned, certainly showed up; while Argentina had more shots on goal than the Germans, not one of the seven gave Manuel Neuer any real trouble - the Argentinians didn't have a single shot from inside the German six-yard box, while three of the four German goals were inside the six-yard box and the fourth only about two yards beyond. Messi and Tevez, whose pace had so devastated the other teams they'd faced, were largely non-factors in this game. After seeing this result, one begins to wonder how the Germans can be stopped.
Spain 1-0 Paraguay
As weird a game as you're going to see. Spain, typically, dominated possession but had a hard time cracking Paraguay's defense. Paraguay, less typically, had some good chances to score and perhaps should have in the first half, an effort called back for what seemed to be a fairly dodgy offsides. In the second half, Paraguay earned a penalty, which Iker Casillas saved; almost immediately, Spain earned a penalty at the other end. Xabi Alonso scored, but it was called back for encroachment (which probably should have happened on the Paraguayan PK, necessitating a retake as well); on the second attempt, Alonso's kick - a much poorer attempt than his first - was saved by Justo Villar (who then may have gotten away with a penalty-worthy takedown of Cesc Fabregas as the two went for the rebound). And then when Spain finally scored, in the 83rd minute, it was only after Pedro hit the post; David Villa's rebound bounced off both posts before finally deciding to settle into the net. Ultimately you have to say the better team won, but Paraguay were certainly game. Perhaps they all had Larissa Riquelme in mind.
Thursday, July 01, 2010
World Cup 2010: Quarterfinal Predictions
I didn't talk about any of the Round of 16 games aside from the US loss, but I didn't really have much to say, in large part because the only other one I saw was Uruguay/South Korea and that one finished exactly as I predicted. (As did Argentina/Mexico, for that matter.) Let's jump to the quarterfinal predictions; I'll get to watch at least two and a half of these games, including all of what's likely to be the best one, Germany/Argentina on Saturday.
7/2/10, 9 am CT: Netherlands vs. Brazil
This match seems likely to me to go one of two ways. It will be either (a) a classic match that could go either way or (b) a Brazilian blowout. The Netherlands, while they've looked good, have yet to be tested, particularly at the back. Their group was not amazing from an offensive standpoint and they drew probably the worst team to make the knockouts, Slovakia, in the round of 16. So while the Dutch have pretty much had their way so far, I don't know of anyone who would suggest they've totally hit their stride. Brazil, meanwhile, seem to be firing on all cylinders. While they did settle for a lousy 0-0 draw with Portugal, they handle a chippy Ivory Coast team and then romped past a Chile team that most people seemed to think had at least a puncher's chance of springing the upset. (Which just goes to show that not many people really pay attention to World Cup qualifying. Chile had no chance.) The Dutch may be shakier at the back than we realize, and if so, count on Brazil to exploit that. I'm hopeful that this is a free-flowing, high-scoring game after the complaints that scoring has been too low so far; the last time these two teams met in the World Cup was the '98 semis, with Brazil winning on penalties after full time ended at 1-1, but the time before that, in the 1994 quarters, saw a five-goal second half with the Brazilians prevailing 3-2 on the way to the title. Of course, these teams are not those teams, but a 3-2 scoreline hardly seems out of the realm of possibility. Honestly, though, the only hope the Dutch have is not to have to score with Brazil. If the final is 3-2 I have a hard time picturing them on the right side of it. I'd like to see the Dutch win here - while Brazil plays attractive football I just can't root for them to get closer to yet another title - but I don't think I'll believe they have it in them until I actually see them do it.
Prediction: Brazil 3, Netherlands 1
7/2/10, 1:30 pm CT: Uruguay vs. Ghana
Hard to care about this game. In the abstract, I think it would be great if an African team advanced to the semifinals at the African World Cup. In reality, since that team is Ghana, I can't root for them - not so much because they beat the US as because of the embarrassing way they played out, or rather tried their best to avoid actually playing out, the last half of extra time. Screw 'em. Fortunately I'd be rather surprised if they did win here; Uruguay have been playing well, and while they, like Ghana, seemed to take their foot off the gas in their round of 16 game with a 1-0 lead, they turned it back on much more quickly after South Korea equalized than Ghana did after Donovan's penalty. Uruguay also seems like they'd be much more able to create a goal out of nothing, which may be needed to win a game that promises to be the most defensive of the four in this set.
Prediction: Uruguay 1, Ghana 0
7/3/10, 9 am CT: Argentina vs. Germany
If this game lives up to the hype, it could be the game of the tournament, although I think going into it expecting a 4-3 final or something would be a mistake. Given the bad blood brewing between the two camps, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be a more physical affair and to go to extra time at 1-1 or maybe 2-2. Neither team looks totally solid at the back, but I feel like I would give the Germans better odds of buckling down, though Argentina also has the more potent attack. I predict Messi still will not score - the Germans will key on him - but that Argentina will sneak out a contentious match anyway.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Germany 2
7/3/10, 1:30 pm CT: Spain vs. Paraguay
While Spain have not always been on top of their game, this looks on paper like the biggest walkover of the bunch, and if Spain can play at top level, there's no way they don't win this game going away. It doesn't hurt that Spain have only conceded two goals at the tournament and Paraguay have not had the easiest time scoring. Spain will make their first ever semifinal* and, if nothing else, will be sure to deny CONMEBOL a clean sweep of the semis.
Prediction: Spain 2, Paraguay 0
*Spain finished fourth place in 1950, but there were no knockout stages that year; the four group stage winners played a round robin for the title, with Uruguay winning the title on points following their defeat of heavily-favored Brazil on the last match day.
7/2/10, 9 am CT: Netherlands vs. Brazil
This match seems likely to me to go one of two ways. It will be either (a) a classic match that could go either way or (b) a Brazilian blowout. The Netherlands, while they've looked good, have yet to be tested, particularly at the back. Their group was not amazing from an offensive standpoint and they drew probably the worst team to make the knockouts, Slovakia, in the round of 16. So while the Dutch have pretty much had their way so far, I don't know of anyone who would suggest they've totally hit their stride. Brazil, meanwhile, seem to be firing on all cylinders. While they did settle for a lousy 0-0 draw with Portugal, they handle a chippy Ivory Coast team and then romped past a Chile team that most people seemed to think had at least a puncher's chance of springing the upset. (Which just goes to show that not many people really pay attention to World Cup qualifying. Chile had no chance.) The Dutch may be shakier at the back than we realize, and if so, count on Brazil to exploit that. I'm hopeful that this is a free-flowing, high-scoring game after the complaints that scoring has been too low so far; the last time these two teams met in the World Cup was the '98 semis, with Brazil winning on penalties after full time ended at 1-1, but the time before that, in the 1994 quarters, saw a five-goal second half with the Brazilians prevailing 3-2 on the way to the title. Of course, these teams are not those teams, but a 3-2 scoreline hardly seems out of the realm of possibility. Honestly, though, the only hope the Dutch have is not to have to score with Brazil. If the final is 3-2 I have a hard time picturing them on the right side of it. I'd like to see the Dutch win here - while Brazil plays attractive football I just can't root for them to get closer to yet another title - but I don't think I'll believe they have it in them until I actually see them do it.
Prediction: Brazil 3, Netherlands 1
7/2/10, 1:30 pm CT: Uruguay vs. Ghana
Hard to care about this game. In the abstract, I think it would be great if an African team advanced to the semifinals at the African World Cup. In reality, since that team is Ghana, I can't root for them - not so much because they beat the US as because of the embarrassing way they played out, or rather tried their best to avoid actually playing out, the last half of extra time. Screw 'em. Fortunately I'd be rather surprised if they did win here; Uruguay have been playing well, and while they, like Ghana, seemed to take their foot off the gas in their round of 16 game with a 1-0 lead, they turned it back on much more quickly after South Korea equalized than Ghana did after Donovan's penalty. Uruguay also seems like they'd be much more able to create a goal out of nothing, which may be needed to win a game that promises to be the most defensive of the four in this set.
Prediction: Uruguay 1, Ghana 0
7/3/10, 9 am CT: Argentina vs. Germany
If this game lives up to the hype, it could be the game of the tournament, although I think going into it expecting a 4-3 final or something would be a mistake. Given the bad blood brewing between the two camps, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be a more physical affair and to go to extra time at 1-1 or maybe 2-2. Neither team looks totally solid at the back, but I feel like I would give the Germans better odds of buckling down, though Argentina also has the more potent attack. I predict Messi still will not score - the Germans will key on him - but that Argentina will sneak out a contentious match anyway.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Germany 2
7/3/10, 1:30 pm CT: Spain vs. Paraguay
While Spain have not always been on top of their game, this looks on paper like the biggest walkover of the bunch, and if Spain can play at top level, there's no way they don't win this game going away. It doesn't hurt that Spain have only conceded two goals at the tournament and Paraguay have not had the easiest time scoring. Spain will make their first ever semifinal* and, if nothing else, will be sure to deny CONMEBOL a clean sweep of the semis.
Prediction: Spain 2, Paraguay 0
*Spain finished fourth place in 1950, but there were no knockout stages that year; the four group stage winners played a round robin for the title, with Uruguay winning the title on points following their defeat of heavily-favored Brazil on the last match day.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Deja vu all over a-Ghana
Ghana 2-1 USA (a.e.t.)
What, really, can you say? The US were burned by everything that plagued them in this tournament: tendency to give up the early goal; inability to finish good chances; shaky back line; tendency to allow the other team to control midfield possession. Ghana - in spite of their shameful diving and time-wasting in the second half of extra time, as if they lacked confidence in their ability to see the game out honestly - outhustled, outmuscled, and outplayed the US, barring about a 15-minute stretch between halftime and Donovan's penalty equalizer.
So who or what is to blame?
1) The letdown
After John Isner won his marathon three-day match by taking the fifth set 70-68, he promptly exited the tournament, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the next round. This wasn't surprising, of course. Similarly, it's not totally surprising that the US couldn't pull this one out - first of all, there are only so many times you can go down and be forced to chase the game relentlessly, but the team were also coming off what must have been an exhausting (both emotionally and physically) game with Algeria just to make the knockouts. Ghana only had two days' rest too, but they barely showed up for their game with Germany, knowing that they didn't have to play their hardest to advance. For all the talk of how the Americans would benefit from their superior fitness, they simply looked spent by the middle of extra time. At some point you just can't chase a game any more. I don't know that I would have liked them from the spot even had they avoided conceding Gyan's goal; they had nothing behind their kicks in the second extra session.
2) The lineup
Facing a lineup that worked - Altidore and Dempsey up high, Feilhaber and Edu in the middle with Donovan and Bradley - coach Bob Bradley rather oddly decided to start Ricardo Clark and Robbie Findley in spite of the fact that neither had done anything in the tournament so far. Clark's error contributed to Ghana's opening goal, and after picking up a yellow card as well he was subbed off after 30 minutes for Edu. Findley had one good shot at goal and delivered a ball straight into the keeper's lap, then was gone for Feilhaber at halftime. Dempsey moved back up top and subsequently drew the tying penalty shot. Credit to Bradley for knowing when he was wrong... but why did he choose to go that way in the first place? My assumption is that he figured Clark and Findley would be fresh legs and someone had to be fresh after the Algeria game. But Clark and Findley couldn't pull their weight earlier in the tournament. Suddenly throwing them back into a must-win game never made sense.
3) The back line
While he did make some good plays, Jay DeMerit struggled once more on both of Ghana's goals. I have no idea what his health status is, but you can tell the team really missed Oguchi Onyewu, whose big, physical presence might have been better equipped to go shoulder to shoulder with Asamoah Gyan, who simply outmuscled Carlos Bocanegra for the extra time winner.
4) The midfield
Ghana mostly seemed to do what they wanted, when they wanted. As I noted above, they were the better team for all but about 15 minutes, and this started in the midfield, where the Ghanaians closed fast on the US and didn't allow much space. The US, by comparison, gave Ghana loads of room to run, as if scared to get passed in a foot race. The American inability to pass crisply also came back to haunt them. Michael Bradley alone had at least three soft giveaways, and he actually played fairly well. Ghana were also much better at keeping their shape as a side; there was always someone out wide for Ghana, sometimes coming into surprise view of the camera at the near side because the US had themselves been so packed into the middle.
5) The lack of a killer offensive threat
Donovan and Dempsey are both very good players, but neither is really a striker by trade. Altidore had a decent Cup, I thought, but you have to say: he should probably be scoring goals. Right? Findley's inability to finish was embarrassing and as far as I'm concerned he should never play for this team again, at least until he's more seasoned in international play - I mean, the guy doesn't even have ten caps. Brian Ching isn't exactly Carlos Tevez and I know he's older, but why wasn't he on the squad? Bottom line, the US need to figure out a way to manufacture a great striker. Maybe a fully fit Altidore matures into that role, but he wasn't ready for it yet. Maybe when Charlie Davies returns, he's that guy. You have to say he was probably missed given the general struggles of the US to put the ball in the back of net from the striker position.
All in all, a devastating disappointment for American soccer after Wednesday's high. Where do we go from here? CONCACAF qualifying doesn't even start until 2012, and the key matches likely won't be played until 2013. There's another Gold Cup next year, but the US didn't even take the last one seriously, sending a third-string team to get obliterated by Mexico in the final. (Although I guess you'd have to be fair and note that the US A-team had been in the Confederations Cup just a few weeks earlier and clearly wasn't going to play both.) The MLS might get a little boost out of this. I don't know.
What I do know is we've got a long way to go. And in the next four years, it's time to find some better defenders, it's time to work on not conceding early, and it's time to show the rest of the world that we have the talent to compete with its best. American soccer seems to surge forward by the year; it's time to really take that next step. The country has shown it will be ready to respond.
What, really, can you say? The US were burned by everything that plagued them in this tournament: tendency to give up the early goal; inability to finish good chances; shaky back line; tendency to allow the other team to control midfield possession. Ghana - in spite of their shameful diving and time-wasting in the second half of extra time, as if they lacked confidence in their ability to see the game out honestly - outhustled, outmuscled, and outplayed the US, barring about a 15-minute stretch between halftime and Donovan's penalty equalizer.
So who or what is to blame?
1) The letdown
After John Isner won his marathon three-day match by taking the fifth set 70-68, he promptly exited the tournament, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the next round. This wasn't surprising, of course. Similarly, it's not totally surprising that the US couldn't pull this one out - first of all, there are only so many times you can go down and be forced to chase the game relentlessly, but the team were also coming off what must have been an exhausting (both emotionally and physically) game with Algeria just to make the knockouts. Ghana only had two days' rest too, but they barely showed up for their game with Germany, knowing that they didn't have to play their hardest to advance. For all the talk of how the Americans would benefit from their superior fitness, they simply looked spent by the middle of extra time. At some point you just can't chase a game any more. I don't know that I would have liked them from the spot even had they avoided conceding Gyan's goal; they had nothing behind their kicks in the second extra session.
2) The lineup
Facing a lineup that worked - Altidore and Dempsey up high, Feilhaber and Edu in the middle with Donovan and Bradley - coach Bob Bradley rather oddly decided to start Ricardo Clark and Robbie Findley in spite of the fact that neither had done anything in the tournament so far. Clark's error contributed to Ghana's opening goal, and after picking up a yellow card as well he was subbed off after 30 minutes for Edu. Findley had one good shot at goal and delivered a ball straight into the keeper's lap, then was gone for Feilhaber at halftime. Dempsey moved back up top and subsequently drew the tying penalty shot. Credit to Bradley for knowing when he was wrong... but why did he choose to go that way in the first place? My assumption is that he figured Clark and Findley would be fresh legs and someone had to be fresh after the Algeria game. But Clark and Findley couldn't pull their weight earlier in the tournament. Suddenly throwing them back into a must-win game never made sense.
3) The back line
While he did make some good plays, Jay DeMerit struggled once more on both of Ghana's goals. I have no idea what his health status is, but you can tell the team really missed Oguchi Onyewu, whose big, physical presence might have been better equipped to go shoulder to shoulder with Asamoah Gyan, who simply outmuscled Carlos Bocanegra for the extra time winner.
4) The midfield
Ghana mostly seemed to do what they wanted, when they wanted. As I noted above, they were the better team for all but about 15 minutes, and this started in the midfield, where the Ghanaians closed fast on the US and didn't allow much space. The US, by comparison, gave Ghana loads of room to run, as if scared to get passed in a foot race. The American inability to pass crisply also came back to haunt them. Michael Bradley alone had at least three soft giveaways, and he actually played fairly well. Ghana were also much better at keeping their shape as a side; there was always someone out wide for Ghana, sometimes coming into surprise view of the camera at the near side because the US had themselves been so packed into the middle.
5) The lack of a killer offensive threat
Donovan and Dempsey are both very good players, but neither is really a striker by trade. Altidore had a decent Cup, I thought, but you have to say: he should probably be scoring goals. Right? Findley's inability to finish was embarrassing and as far as I'm concerned he should never play for this team again, at least until he's more seasoned in international play - I mean, the guy doesn't even have ten caps. Brian Ching isn't exactly Carlos Tevez and I know he's older, but why wasn't he on the squad? Bottom line, the US need to figure out a way to manufacture a great striker. Maybe a fully fit Altidore matures into that role, but he wasn't ready for it yet. Maybe when Charlie Davies returns, he's that guy. You have to say he was probably missed given the general struggles of the US to put the ball in the back of net from the striker position.
All in all, a devastating disappointment for American soccer after Wednesday's high. Where do we go from here? CONCACAF qualifying doesn't even start until 2012, and the key matches likely won't be played until 2013. There's another Gold Cup next year, but the US didn't even take the last one seriously, sending a third-string team to get obliterated by Mexico in the final. (Although I guess you'd have to be fair and note that the US A-team had been in the Confederations Cup just a few weeks earlier and clearly wasn't going to play both.) The MLS might get a little boost out of this. I don't know.
What I do know is we've got a long way to go. And in the next four years, it's time to find some better defenders, it's time to work on not conceding early, and it's time to show the rest of the world that we have the talent to compete with its best. American soccer seems to surge forward by the year; it's time to really take that next step. The country has shown it will be ready to respond.
World Cup 2010: Round of Sixteen Predictions
Saturday, 6/26/10, 9 am CDT: Uruguay vs. South Korea
There seems to be some consensus that Uruguay was one of the more impressive teams in the first round. Having not managed to catch any of their three games - one of the few teams of whom that was true - I'm not a real position to disagree, but I would note that they drew 0-0 with France and beat Mexico 1-0, both pretty tepid/standard results. Yes, they beat South Africa 3-0, but South Africa had a man sent off in that game and, their other results notwithstanding, were one of the five weakest sides in the competition. Of course, I can't say any better for South Korea, who looked outstanding in beating Greece in their first game but were subsequently thumped by Argentina and held by a Nigeria side that missed at least two sitters. Plus this tournament isn't being played in South Korea.
Prediction: Uruguay 2, South Korea 1
Saturday, 6/26/10, 1:30 pm CDT: United States vs. Ghana
As you might guess, this game terrifies me. On the one hand, I feel fairly confident that Ghana will have trouble scoring - they've got two goals in this tournament and both were on penalty kicks resulting from handballs in the box. But they're a young, physical team, and the game comes on just two days' rest for the US (for Ghana as well, of course), and - most crucially - Ghana are the sole African side left and will probably have the full force of the crowd behind them barring a few thousand American fans. It's also worth noting that the US haven't exactly had an easy time scoring, although if they ever started banging home all the chances they were ringing up against Algeria I don't know if anyone could beat them. As usual, the key will be not giving up an early goal. Just don't touch any balls in the box, people who aren't Tim Howard.
Prediction: United States 2, Ghana 0 (*gulp*)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 9:00 am CDT: England vs. Germany
Not clear which team will show up for either side. Did England put it together against Slovenia, or were they just facing a side which had expended most of its energy clawing to the top of its group? Is Germany the team that destroyed Australia or the team that limped through games with Serbia and Ghana? England had better make sure its defense is up to snuff, as Miroslav Klose is rested and no doubt ready to go. England's offense, meanwhile, may still be a bit suspect if Wayne Rooney doesn't wake up soon.
Prediction: Germany 1, England 1 (Germany 5-3 on penalties)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Argentina vs. Mexico
The Mexicans gave Argentina quite a game four years ago before falling, but I'm just not convinced this Mexican team is all that good. They barely drew 1-1 with South Africa - admittedly in front of a vocal home crowd in the tournament's first match - then coasted past an imploding France before only sort of showing up to face Uruguay. Have they really had to seriously perform yet in this tournament? Argentina hasn't been much tested, of course, and their defense can be suspect, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to score on Mexico pretty much whenever they want.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Mexico 1
Monday, 6/28/10, 9:00 am CDT: Netherlands vs. Slovakia
Slovakia's 3-2 win over Italy was a revelation, but after lackluster performances in a 1-1 draw with New Zealand and 2-0 loss to Paraguay, are they really that good or did they just catch lightning in a bottle? (Or, perhaps, are Italy just that bad?) The Dutch haven't really been tested yet, but it's a big advantage for them to have what amounts to a tune-up game to start the knockouts, rather than their battle with Portugal from 2006.
Prediction: Netherlands 3, Slovakia 0
Monday, 6/28/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Brazil vs. Chile
Based on what we've seen from Chile in the tournament, this should be good, right? Well, until you realize that Chile have actually only scored three goals and were helped greatly by games against two of the tournament's weakest offenses in Switzerland and Honduras. Also, Brazil beat Chile handily in qualifying, twice, both home and away.
Prediction: Brazil 4, Chile 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 9:00 am CDT: Paraguay vs. Japan
Paraguay looked decent in the group stage, but don't sleep on Japan after their 3-1 demolition of Denmark. Paraguay have yet to face a potent offense, and while no one would have called Japan that three days ago, their ability to strike on setpieces cannot be questioned, and they'll be tough to beat if they get a lead.
Prediction: Japan 2, Paraguay 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Spain vs. Portugal
Fitting that the marquee matchup of the round of 16 should also be its final game. Unfortunate that it falls in the middle of a workday. Portugal are a total enigma at this point; they played to a 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast, ostensibly because the two teams were feeling each other out, and then to a 0-0 draw with Brazil, ostensibly because they had no need to go for the win, and in between that they rolled up a 7-0 win, but against the worst team in the field. So can this team score goals when it's not facing North Korea? And what about Spain, which won its test against Chile but didn't always look comfortable in doing so? I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go to penalty kicks because both sides will be terrified of losing so early and will play defensively, although for the sake of fans everywhere I hope I'm wrong. Don't worry - I usually am with stuff like this.
Prediction: Spain 2, Portugal 1 (a.e.t.)
There seems to be some consensus that Uruguay was one of the more impressive teams in the first round. Having not managed to catch any of their three games - one of the few teams of whom that was true - I'm not a real position to disagree, but I would note that they drew 0-0 with France and beat Mexico 1-0, both pretty tepid/standard results. Yes, they beat South Africa 3-0, but South Africa had a man sent off in that game and, their other results notwithstanding, were one of the five weakest sides in the competition. Of course, I can't say any better for South Korea, who looked outstanding in beating Greece in their first game but were subsequently thumped by Argentina and held by a Nigeria side that missed at least two sitters. Plus this tournament isn't being played in South Korea.
Prediction: Uruguay 2, South Korea 1
Saturday, 6/26/10, 1:30 pm CDT: United States vs. Ghana
As you might guess, this game terrifies me. On the one hand, I feel fairly confident that Ghana will have trouble scoring - they've got two goals in this tournament and both were on penalty kicks resulting from handballs in the box. But they're a young, physical team, and the game comes on just two days' rest for the US (for Ghana as well, of course), and - most crucially - Ghana are the sole African side left and will probably have the full force of the crowd behind them barring a few thousand American fans. It's also worth noting that the US haven't exactly had an easy time scoring, although if they ever started banging home all the chances they were ringing up against Algeria I don't know if anyone could beat them. As usual, the key will be not giving up an early goal. Just don't touch any balls in the box, people who aren't Tim Howard.
Prediction: United States 2, Ghana 0 (*gulp*)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 9:00 am CDT: England vs. Germany
Not clear which team will show up for either side. Did England put it together against Slovenia, or were they just facing a side which had expended most of its energy clawing to the top of its group? Is Germany the team that destroyed Australia or the team that limped through games with Serbia and Ghana? England had better make sure its defense is up to snuff, as Miroslav Klose is rested and no doubt ready to go. England's offense, meanwhile, may still be a bit suspect if Wayne Rooney doesn't wake up soon.
Prediction: Germany 1, England 1 (Germany 5-3 on penalties)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Argentina vs. Mexico
The Mexicans gave Argentina quite a game four years ago before falling, but I'm just not convinced this Mexican team is all that good. They barely drew 1-1 with South Africa - admittedly in front of a vocal home crowd in the tournament's first match - then coasted past an imploding France before only sort of showing up to face Uruguay. Have they really had to seriously perform yet in this tournament? Argentina hasn't been much tested, of course, and their defense can be suspect, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to score on Mexico pretty much whenever they want.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Mexico 1
Monday, 6/28/10, 9:00 am CDT: Netherlands vs. Slovakia
Slovakia's 3-2 win over Italy was a revelation, but after lackluster performances in a 1-1 draw with New Zealand and 2-0 loss to Paraguay, are they really that good or did they just catch lightning in a bottle? (Or, perhaps, are Italy just that bad?) The Dutch haven't really been tested yet, but it's a big advantage for them to have what amounts to a tune-up game to start the knockouts, rather than their battle with Portugal from 2006.
Prediction: Netherlands 3, Slovakia 0
Monday, 6/28/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Brazil vs. Chile
Based on what we've seen from Chile in the tournament, this should be good, right? Well, until you realize that Chile have actually only scored three goals and were helped greatly by games against two of the tournament's weakest offenses in Switzerland and Honduras. Also, Brazil beat Chile handily in qualifying, twice, both home and away.
Prediction: Brazil 4, Chile 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 9:00 am CDT: Paraguay vs. Japan
Paraguay looked decent in the group stage, but don't sleep on Japan after their 3-1 demolition of Denmark. Paraguay have yet to face a potent offense, and while no one would have called Japan that three days ago, their ability to strike on setpieces cannot be questioned, and they'll be tough to beat if they get a lead.
Prediction: Japan 2, Paraguay 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Spain vs. Portugal
Fitting that the marquee matchup of the round of 16 should also be its final game. Unfortunate that it falls in the middle of a workday. Portugal are a total enigma at this point; they played to a 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast, ostensibly because the two teams were feeling each other out, and then to a 0-0 draw with Brazil, ostensibly because they had no need to go for the win, and in between that they rolled up a 7-0 win, but against the worst team in the field. So can this team score goals when it's not facing North Korea? And what about Spain, which won its test against Chile but didn't always look comfortable in doing so? I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go to penalty kicks because both sides will be terrified of losing so early and will play defensively, although for the sake of fans everywhere I hope I'm wrong. Don't worry - I usually am with stuff like this.
Prediction: Spain 2, Portugal 1 (a.e.t.)
Friday, June 25, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Fifteen
The first round concluded today, and did so in expected fashion. Let's wrap it up quick-like.
Ivory Coast 3-0 North Korea
Not a shock. Ivory Coast scored two goals in the first twenty minutes, spurring a bit of "Maybe they can actually score nine goals!" talk before things settled down. The Elephants go home despite probably being the best team in Africa, but is anyone really surprised? Their group contained Brazil and Portugal, for crying out loud.
Brazil 0-0 Portugal
Sorry to anyone who was expecting a good game, but once Portugal loaded up on goals against North Korea you should have known better. Weird but true: Portugal's three games included a 7-0 win and two scoreless draws. What can we expect out of them going forward?
Switzerland 0-0 Honduras
Whatever.
Spain 2-1 Chile
Villa's goal: remarkable. We've talked about Maicon, Quagliarella, and whoever else, but understand this: Villa hit a clearance first-time into the net from 45 yards away down the left side. It's funny, Spain losing was the huge story of the first set of games, but they ended up progressing quite comfortably, while France and Italy - world powers that drew their opening games - ended up becoming the real embarrassments of the tournament.
Ivory Coast 3-0 North Korea
Not a shock. Ivory Coast scored two goals in the first twenty minutes, spurring a bit of "Maybe they can actually score nine goals!" talk before things settled down. The Elephants go home despite probably being the best team in Africa, but is anyone really surprised? Their group contained Brazil and Portugal, for crying out loud.
Brazil 0-0 Portugal
Sorry to anyone who was expecting a good game, but once Portugal loaded up on goals against North Korea you should have known better. Weird but true: Portugal's three games included a 7-0 win and two scoreless draws. What can we expect out of them going forward?
Switzerland 0-0 Honduras
Whatever.
Spain 2-1 Chile
Villa's goal: remarkable. We've talked about Maicon, Quagliarella, and whoever else, but understand this: Villa hit a clearance first-time into the net from 45 yards away down the left side. It's funny, Spain losing was the huge story of the first set of games, but they ended up progressing quite comfortably, while France and Italy - world powers that drew their opening games - ended up becoming the real embarrassments of the tournament.
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