World Cup 2010: Group Analysis, first set of games

Group A

Since South Africa and Uruguay have played their second games already, this will be slightly more concrete than the others.

1. Uruguay, 1-1-0, 4 points
2. Mexico, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
3. France, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. South Africa, 0-1-1, 1 point, -3 GD

Let's assume France and Mexico draw tomorrow. For South Africa to advance, they would need to beat France in their final game, and have Mexico fail to win. Fortunately for South Africa, Uruguay aren't likely to punt the final game knowing that they need at least a draw to top the group. Unfortunately for South Africa, beating France isn't exactly the easiest ask. At this point, Uruguay seem the likely bet to top the group, and advancement is almost certain. The only way Uruguay would fail to advance is if Mexico and France draw and then both win in the third set of games; as long as Uruguay don't lose to Mexico, they'll move on. Who advances with them will depend on the Mexico/France result; the winner there certainly takes control, but a draw leaves every team in play. If I had to guess, I'd say it should be France, especially since they're probably more like to beat South Africa than Mexico are to beat Uruguay.

Group B

1. South Korea, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Argentina, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Nigeria, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Greece, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD

Based on the first games, tomorrow's Argentina-South Korea tilt has real potential. I still expect Argentina to top the group, but we'll see. Nigeria have to hope for a win over Greece and Argentina defeating South Korea, leading to a win-or-go-home game between South Korea and Nigeria in the third set. While Greece were surprisingly poor in the first game, this still has potential to be perhaps our most exciting group overall.

Group C

1. Slovenia, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. England, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
2t. USA, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
4. Algeria, 0-0-1, 0 points

While the second set of games is massive in most if not all of the groups, it is particularly so here, especially where the Americans are concerned. A win over Slovenia is a virtual must for the US; while a draw would not cripple their chances, a loss would be devastating. Losing to Slovenia (combined with an expected England win over Algeria) means the only American hope would be a comfortable win over Algeria and, less likely, Slovenia going on to take all nine points; a draw, while it would make things uncomfortable, would still enable the US to advance with merely a win over Algeria and a Slovenia loss to England. A win, on the other hand, would make the US masters of their own destinies, requiring just a further win or draw with Algeria to advance regardless of the England/Slovenia outcome. If the hope is to avoid Germany, of course, the US will want to win both, by as many goals as possible.

Group D

1. Germany, 1-0-0, 3 points, 4 GD
2. Ghana, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Serbia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Australia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -4 GD

Germany look set to take all nine points, meaning the only question is who comes second. Ghana are obviously in pole position; because of Australia's awful GD, the Black Stars need only draw the Socceroos on Saturday to feel pretty comfortable about advancing. Assuming Germany beat Serbia, Ghana could lose to Germany and have Australia win and still advance easily, so long as neither game was a blowout. Australia, of course, absolutely must win over Ghana to have any confidence that they can progress with a result in the Serbia game, due to that goal differential.

Group E

1. Netherlands, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Japan, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Cameroon, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Denmark, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD

Saturday's Denmark-Cameroon game is probably the key matchup here. I fully expect the Netherlands to defeat Japan, meaning that the Denmark-Cameroon winner - assuming we get one - moves into good position to advance. Denmark, having played the Dutch first, are almost masters of their own destiny at this point; assuming the Dutch will probably beat both Japan and Cameroon, Denmark need only do the same to move on. For Japan, the key will be a result in the Netherlands game; even a draw there means that a result in their tilt with Denmark promises advancement. Cameroon desperately need a win over Denmark, but they may be in trouble regardless with a final matchup against the Dutch.

Group F

1t. Italy, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. New Zealand, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Paraguay, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Slovakia, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD

Winston Reid's late header really shook things up, making the entire group completely level as it did. It also makes the Paraguay-Slovakia game perhaps the most important of the entire group stage. Had Slovakia won the first game, a draw here would have been okay; now, with Italy looming for the Slovaks in their final game, a win is vital if they hope to advance. Even the minnows are in with a shout, but New Zealand need to pull out a win somewhere and I don't really see that happening. Italy and Paraguay are still my likely bets to advance.

Group G

1. Brazil, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. Ivory Coast, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
2t. Portugal, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. North Korea, 0-0-1, 0 points

Ivory Coast pretty much played Portugal for a draw, and you have to imagine they'll do the same with Brazil. After all, two draws and a win over North Korea - or even a loss to Brazil and a win over North Korea - are likely to put the Elephants through. However, losing to Brazil is both the most likely proposition and a bit risky; assuming Portugal also defeat North Korea, it's possible that Brazil and Portugal might then be happy to play for a draw in their final game, not unlike West Germany and Austria in 1982. Sunday's Ivory Coast-Brazil game thus threatens to be as dull as Ivory Coast-Portugal was with the Ivorians potentially desperate not to lose. However, their defense isn't as stout as North Korea's and Brazil still got two goals in that game.

Group H

1t. Chile, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
1t. Switzerland, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
3t. Honduras, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD
3t. Spain, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD

Spain and Honduras play Monday in a game I'm fully expecting Spain to win about 5-0 now. Chile and Switzerland meet on the same day in a crucial game. If they draw, both can advance at the expense of Spain so long as neither lose their last game. Because Spain will almost certainly beat Honduras, and I expect them to do so comfortably, a Chile-Switzerland winner is not guaranteed advancement. A win by Chile would put them on six points with Switzerland and (presumably) Spain on three, but Switzerland could beat Honduras and Spain beat Chile in the third set of games, risking Chile getting dumped out depending on differentials. Ditto Switzerland; a win over Chile puts them on six points, but they would still need to get a result from the Honduras game or have Spain not win against Chile. Spain are still perfectly capable of going through if they can defeat Honduras and Chile, but things would be easier for them if Chile do not win the Switzerland game, as a Chile win over Switzerland and a Swiss win over Honduras combined with two wins by Spain leads to a three-way tie that could still always see the Spanish eliminated on GD. Of course, thumping Honduras would limit that likelihood.