World Cup 2010: Day Ten

I didn't actually watch much today, but let's talk about it anyway.

Paraguay 2-0 Slovakia

This group always looked like Italy and Paraguay, and it seems that Paraguay has advancement pretty much sewn up following their comfortable victory. After dominating large stretches of their opening game but losing the win at the death, Slovakia were thoroughly outplayed by Paraguay (in spite of their slight edge in possession), getting just one shot on goal, and that two minutes from time already down 2-0. Slovakia's defense broke down on both goals; the first saw Lucas Barrios thread a pass right between the legs of Kornel Salata to be poked home by Enrique Vera, while the second was a strike from Cristian Riveros after Slovakia allowed Paraguay to have as many attackers in the box as they had defenders. With just one point, Slovakia's World Cup isn't over yet, but it's hard to see how they can beat Italy - which they must do to advance - when they've managed just one goal in their first two games. Paraguay need only take a point from their game with New Zealand to move on, regardless of other results.

Italy 1-1 New Zealand

Possibly a bigger shock than Switzerland beating Spain. While the FIFA rankings are questionable, Italy and New Zealand are separated by 774 points, while Spain and Switzerland are only separated by 699. New Zealand didn't win, of course, but holding on for the draw while being thoroughly dominated in most aspects of the game is an impressive showing by a country that just got its first ever point last week. Italy had 72% of the possession. Italy took 15 corners to New Zealand's none. Italy took 23 shots, with five on target; New Zealand took three shots, and the only one on target found the back of the net. I should probably note that the officiating in this game was also a bit shambolic; New Zealand's goal was probably offsides, and the penalty kick on which Italy tied it came from a very soft foul call (perhaps it was intended as some sort of makeup call for missing the offsides?). Still, New Zealand have to be thrilled with this result. On the other hand, it's difficult to see how they progress; a draw with Paraguay would only be enough to advance them if Italy and Slovakia draw and Italy score fewer goals than New Zealand in doing so, which seems unlikely. As much as I'd love to see New Zealand progress, I simply can't imagine they have beating Paraguay in them. Of course, if you're New Zealand it might be a moral victory simply to leave the World Cup without a loss.

Brazil 3-1 Ivory Coast

It only gets worse for African teams. I like Sven-Goran Eriksson, but in the wake of this result his apparent decision to play Portugal for a draw from the start becomes more suspect. At this point Ivory Coast really need North Korea to get a result off Portugal, and then to beat North Korea themselves in the final group of games while Portugal fails to win against Brazil. All of these are moderately reasonable outcomes, to be fair, but Ivory Coast would be in much better shape had they been able to take Portugal in the opening game, and it just never seemed like they were really trying to. This particular game is also noteworthy because it featured Luis Fabiano scoring after handling the ball twice, which somehow the officials missed even though I could spot it at full speed and with Fabiano only an inch or two high on a computer screen. I doubt removing that goal from Brazil's books would have made much difference, but sheesh, do you really need to make things easier for Brazil?

The final round of games begins Tuesday, and I'm excited, as most groups either still have all to play for or feature a do-or-die game. Consider the following:

Group A: This one would have been a snoozer, but suddenly maybe the hosts aren't quite dead - France are clearly in shambles, so what if South Africa can capitalize and flatten them 3-0? If Uruguay defeated Mexico 2-0 at the same time, South Africa would advance. Sure, it's completely unlikely... but let's throw Africa a bone here. They don't have a lot going on.

Group B: I fully expect Argentina to wallop Greece, and assuming that happens it makes South Korea and Nigeria into an elimination game, albeit one that Nigeria would have to win by two goals to advance. Still, everyone still having a shot to move on on the last day makes for an exciting finish.

Group C: Well, obviously. All four teams can still move on. It'll be interesting to see exactly how these games play out, as I can't help but think Slovenia will be happy to play for a draw with England, while the US and Algeria will both be playing for the win.

Group D: Anyone can still move on here as well, though obviously some scenarios are likelier than others. Serbia advance with a win. Ghana advance with a win - or, if Serbia don't win, with a draw. Germany advance with a win, or probably with a draw if Serbia lose. Australia needs to win and for Ghana to win; alternately, the Aussies will be hoping to win by several goals and for Ghana to get thumped in hopes of turning around a significant five-goal differential.

Group E: The Dutch are in and Cameroon are out, but that makes Japan/Denmark a for-sure elimination game. The Japanese have a one-goal edge in GD, so one wonders if they might just play for the draw, especially since a situation that involves them having to score more than one goal is not going to be to their liking.

Group F: As discussed above, all four teams advance with a win, regardless of other results - the one exception being Slovakia, who need to win and have New Zealand not win. Paraguay and Italy still seem like the obvious call, but who knows? If both games end in draws, New Zealand could still squeak this one out without even having to win.

Groups G and H: Still a lot of scenarios. Things will likely be a little clearer after Monday.