World Cup 2010: Day Five

New Zealand 1-1 Slovakia

If this game isn't a testimony to playing until the whistle sounds, I don't know what is. (I originally wrote "playing all 90 minutes," but of course New Zealand's equalizer came in stoppage time.) The Kiwis looked the better side for the first 10 or 15 minutes, but after that Slovakia mostly dominated the game - albeit the kind of domination that results in two total shots on goal and getting your only score via a header from a player who was almost certainly offsides. (I watched this game live and while it was not the snoozefest of Algeria-Slovenia, it was rarely very exciting.) For whatever reason, be it Slovakia feeling they had the game won or the Kiwis reaching for a second gear, New Zealand came to life in the final few minutes, and they snatched an equalizer mere seconds from time, courtesy of a header from embarrassingly-unmarked 21-year-old defender Winston Reid, one of only seven All Whites who play their club football in Europe.

An exciting moment for New Zealand, surely - it was their first-ever point in a World Cup and just their third goal scored. The question now becomes what we make of this group, which is technically a four-way draw at the moment. Italy and Paraguay seem like the class of it and I'd be surprised if they don't advance; while New Zealand probably deserved their draw here I must say they were pretty poor for large stretches of the game and I'd be stunned if Italy don't thump them. While a win would have given Slovakia a decent chance to advance, they now need to actually beat either Italy or Paraguay and I'm just not sure they're up to it based on what I saw, although it can of course be difficult to judge a team fully on its opening game.

Portugal 0-0 Ivory Coast

Speaking of which. Yeesh. I didn't see this one live, though I listened to most of the second half on ESPN Radio, but it doesn't appear there was much to see; ESPN's Gamecast commentator noted darkly after the final whistle, "That is 90 minutes of my life I can't get back." Portugal, the third-ranked team in the world, managed just a single shot on goal; perhaps the most noteworthy part of the entire game was a hilarious moment when Cristiano Ronaldo, about to be fouled by a sliding Guy Demel, flung himself up and over Demel's legs rather than making contact with him and was subsequently booked for diving on what would otherwise have absolutely been a legitimate foul on Demel. Guess you just can't teach an old dog new tricks. The most exciting moment of the game was surely the entrance of Didier Drogba, although he didn't manage to do much of anything until finding himself directly in front of goal in the 91st minute, only to cross the ball to absolutely no one.

The real question is what we know about either team following this match. It may have been a dreary, goalless affair, but that could just have been fear. Think about it this way: both sides, while surely confident in public, probably expect that they will not beat Brazil, or at least consider a loss to Brazil a relatively likely outcome. Assuming a win over North Korea and a loss to Brazil, that's three points each... and assuming that that's the most likely outcome for both, this game was absolutely critical not to lose. A loss here would have required a win over Brazil, most likely. Instead, the advancing team will probably come down to who can beat North Korea by more and/or lose to Brazil by less. I'm sure either side would have taken a win, but it's pretty clear that both were far more comfortable playing conservatively, not to lose.

Brazil 2-1 North Korea

A stunning result in more ways than one. First of all, Brazil's two goals were among the nicest you'll see, started by Maicon's in the 55th minute, a crazy shot fired in from such an angle that (a) it almost looks like the ball was CGIed into the video and (b) a debate ensued over whether or not Maicon was actually attempting a cross. (I'll say this: it would have been one of the least effective crosses of all-time, so he may as well say he was shooting for it.) Brazil also got off fully 26 shots, including ten on goal - the eight saves credited to North Korean keeper Ri Myong-Guk were two more than all five other goalies today combined - yet could only manage a narrow win in a game that was scoreless for nearly an hour. The Koreans pulled back a goal in the 89th which, astonishingly, could yet prove crucial to their own advancement to the second round. Perhaps most bizarrely, this became the first game of the tournament in which both teams scored not to end in a 1-1 draw.

Group G is suddenly very weird. North Korea sits at the bottom, and their goal differential is -1, but they also have a goal to their credit, which the Portuguese and Ivorians do not. Here is one not especially far-fetched scenario, particularly if Portugal and Ivory Coast also struggle to break down the North Korean defense:

Brazil def. North Korea 2-1
Portugal t. Ivory Coast 0-0

Portugal t. North Korea 1-1
Brazil def. Ivory Coast 3-1

North Korea def. Ivory Coast 1-0
Brazil def. Portugal 2-1

Obviously I just made up the second two sets of results, but based on today's games, North Korea scraping out a low-scoring win and tie in their next two games is not the most unrealistic thing in the world, right? And four points would be enough to get them through assuming Brazil will in fact take all nine. I will say this - the Brazil-Portugal game on June 25 gets a lot more interesting if Portugal need a win to ensure the North Koreans can't pass them.

Tomorrow! Honduras-Chile, possibly along with my first live blog (which I'm sure no one will follow live and so which I may just post all at once when the game is over, if I even do it); Spain-Switzerland; and a huge game for the hosts as they kick off the second set of matches with a tilt against Uruguay. A win for South Africa tomorrow puts them on the brink of advancing.