As it turns out, only the top three teams are seeded when they draw for the UEFA playoffs. Spain ended up drawing Slovakia, dashing my hopes of a Czech-Slovak clash. The Czechs will face Norway; Switzerland and Turkey meet in the third pairing.
It's kind of hard to imagine the higher seeds (the Czechs, Spain, and Turkey) losing here; Spain hasn't missed a World Cup since 1974, the Czechs are top five in the world, and Turkey finished third place overall last time out. The three lower-rated sides have less overall pedigree, both currently and historically. On the other hand, that's why they play the games; the home-and-home ties give anyone a chance. In 2001, the Czechs were ranked tenth in the world and lost out to a Belgium side rated #33; #27 Slovenia took out #15 Romania as well. So let's not book the plane tickets just yet.
According to ESPN.com, the top eight seeds for the Cup (i.e. the "anchor teams," so to speak, of each group) would be Brazil, Spain, Mexico, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, and England, if FIFA uses the same formula they used to seed teams in the last two World Cups. It's funny to think that Spain would be an anchor team if they made it but could potentially still miss; the Netherlands, currently #2 in the world, would take over as an anchor team if Spain blows it.
Friday, October 14, 2005
Thursday, October 13, 2005
World Cup would be the last update but it's not
It almost is.
UEFA
Group One: The Czech Republic took down Finland 3-0 to move into second with 27 points, two ahead of Romania. I guess no one's going to be driving on Mikael Forssell Boulevard anytime soon.
Group Two: Turkey, Denmark, and Greece all won - giving Turkey the spot in the playoffs by one point and bouncing both the Danes and the defending European champs.
Group Three: Slovakia and Russia drew 0-0. The Slovak coach called it the "worst 90 minutes of my life," which is funny since it meant his team qualified for the playoffs on goal difference. Could they meet the Czechs? Would that not be totally awesome?
Group Four: France's no-duh win over Cyprus (4-0 despite a lack of Henry and Trezeguet) gave them the group as Switzerland and Ireland played to a goalless draw at Lansdowne Road. The Swiss move into the playoffs.
Group Five: Was already sealed, but a 3-0 win by Scotland over Slovenia, coupled with a Norwegian defeat of Belarus, ensured that Norway's place in the playoffs would not resort to tiebreakers. The Scots moved into third place, which doesn't help them now but could come in handy for the next European qualifying.
Group Six: England finally looked good and won the group by taking down Poland 2-1. The Poles go through as one of the two best runners-up anyway.
Group Seven: Serbia's defeat of Bosnia meant even a 6-0 trouncing of San Marino left Spain in the playoffs. With just a single goal allowed in ten qualifying games - even if this wasn't the strongest group - the Serbians could be a scary sleeper in Germany.
Group Eight: Sweden won and Croatia drew but it didn't matter. Croatia wins the group on tiebreaker, and both go through as Sweden's 8-0-2 record makes them one of the two best runners-up.
So the playoffs are based on the FIFA World Rankings and are seeded. Though new rankings come out on the 19th, September's will apparently be used, giving us this:
#4 Czech Republic vs. #45 Slovakia
#8 Spain vs. #38 Switzerland
#12 Turkey vs. #37 Norway
Czechs-Slovaks! Can you imagine the atmosphere for this game? And if the Slovaks win? Sign me up to watch. Please let a non-PPV channel carry this one.
AFRICA
Settled on Saturday.
ASIA
Well, guess what. A 0-0 draw sends Bahrain through on away goals. Think Uzbekistan is wishing they never said anything? Bahrain will play...
CONCACAF
...Trinidad and Tobago. In an exciting final day, Guatemala pounced on Costa Rica 3-1, but two goals from Stern John sent T&T past Mexico 2-1 and into a playoff for a spot in Germany. The U.S. topped the group by beating Panama, as they beat Mexico 3-2 on goal differential in the two games played between the sides.
CONMEBOL
A 1-0 win over Argentina kept Uruguay a point ahead of Colombia and sent them into a playoff for the second straight time. Uruguay's opponent in 2001? Australia. Uruguay's opponent in 2005? You guessed it.
A mere five spots left, meaning 27 are clinched. And they are!
Europe (14 bids, 11 set)
Ukraine
The Netherlands
England
France
Poland
Sweden
Serbia and Montenegro
Croatia
Italy
Germany
Portugal
Africa (5 bids, 5 set)
Togo
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Angola
Tunisia
Asia (4.5 bids, 4 set)
Iran
Japan
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
CONCACAF (3.5 bids, 3 set)
United States
Mexico
Costa Rica
CONMEBOL (4.5 bids, 4 set)
Brazil
Argentina
Ecuador
Paraguay
Interesting indeed. Man, I can't wait for the draw. But first, the playoffs!
UEFA
Group One: The Czech Republic took down Finland 3-0 to move into second with 27 points, two ahead of Romania. I guess no one's going to be driving on Mikael Forssell Boulevard anytime soon.
Group Two: Turkey, Denmark, and Greece all won - giving Turkey the spot in the playoffs by one point and bouncing both the Danes and the defending European champs.
Group Three: Slovakia and Russia drew 0-0. The Slovak coach called it the "worst 90 minutes of my life," which is funny since it meant his team qualified for the playoffs on goal difference. Could they meet the Czechs? Would that not be totally awesome?
Group Four: France's no-duh win over Cyprus (4-0 despite a lack of Henry and Trezeguet) gave them the group as Switzerland and Ireland played to a goalless draw at Lansdowne Road. The Swiss move into the playoffs.
Group Five: Was already sealed, but a 3-0 win by Scotland over Slovenia, coupled with a Norwegian defeat of Belarus, ensured that Norway's place in the playoffs would not resort to tiebreakers. The Scots moved into third place, which doesn't help them now but could come in handy for the next European qualifying.
Group Six: England finally looked good and won the group by taking down Poland 2-1. The Poles go through as one of the two best runners-up anyway.
Group Seven: Serbia's defeat of Bosnia meant even a 6-0 trouncing of San Marino left Spain in the playoffs. With just a single goal allowed in ten qualifying games - even if this wasn't the strongest group - the Serbians could be a scary sleeper in Germany.
Group Eight: Sweden won and Croatia drew but it didn't matter. Croatia wins the group on tiebreaker, and both go through as Sweden's 8-0-2 record makes them one of the two best runners-up.
So the playoffs are based on the FIFA World Rankings and are seeded. Though new rankings come out on the 19th, September's will apparently be used, giving us this:
#4 Czech Republic vs. #45 Slovakia
#8 Spain vs. #38 Switzerland
#12 Turkey vs. #37 Norway
Czechs-Slovaks! Can you imagine the atmosphere for this game? And if the Slovaks win? Sign me up to watch. Please let a non-PPV channel carry this one.
AFRICA
Settled on Saturday.
ASIA
Well, guess what. A 0-0 draw sends Bahrain through on away goals. Think Uzbekistan is wishing they never said anything? Bahrain will play...
CONCACAF
...Trinidad and Tobago. In an exciting final day, Guatemala pounced on Costa Rica 3-1, but two goals from Stern John sent T&T past Mexico 2-1 and into a playoff for a spot in Germany. The U.S. topped the group by beating Panama, as they beat Mexico 3-2 on goal differential in the two games played between the sides.
CONMEBOL
A 1-0 win over Argentina kept Uruguay a point ahead of Colombia and sent them into a playoff for the second straight time. Uruguay's opponent in 2001? Australia. Uruguay's opponent in 2005? You guessed it.
A mere five spots left, meaning 27 are clinched. And they are!
Europe (14 bids, 11 set)
Ukraine
The Netherlands
England
France
Poland
Sweden
Serbia and Montenegro
Croatia
Italy
Germany
Portugal
Africa (5 bids, 5 set)
Togo
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Angola
Tunisia
Asia (4.5 bids, 4 set)
Iran
Japan
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
CONCACAF (3.5 bids, 3 set)
United States
Mexico
Costa Rica
CONMEBOL (4.5 bids, 4 set)
Brazil
Argentina
Ecuador
Paraguay
Interesting indeed. Man, I can't wait for the draw. But first, the playoffs!
Jump back, what's that sound?
It's the sound of the U.S. topping CONCACAF's final round of qualifying, that's what it is.
Pretty good game against Panama considering who was starting - a young team with two players getting their first caps (Mapp and Carroll), and few real veterans of the 2002 team (Eddie Pope was the only player on tonight's roster who actually played in the Germany game, and he stayed on the bench). Kyle Martino and Taylor Twellman got their first international goals, and just a handful of minutes apart - Martino's was a great first-time shot out of the air that snuck past the near post, while Twellman did well to finish when the Panamanian keeper came off his line and misplayed the ball.
As good an outing as it was for Martino, Twellman, Mapp and Carroll (the latter two of whom got specific postgame praise from Arena for their performances in their first caps), it must have been disappointing for Brian Ching, another possible candidate for second striker in Germany. (There's also Landon Donovan, but he can play attacking midfield just as well, as he mostly did in 2002.) He didn't get in until the 74th minute and had an awkward handball in the box - while under exactly no pressure - lead to a penalty kick that was fortunately pushed wide left.
The U.S. did look pretty good, though. The team seemed to take a while to get cohesive on offense, but Panama rarely was able to pose a significant threat in the other direction, and considering the third-string U.S. team thrown out there, that's pretty good. (Especially since Panama is much improved recently.)
Combine the win with a Mexico loss and the U.S. tops the group for the first time since the final round expanded to six teams in 1994. Eddie Lewis' goal at Azteca looks pretty huge now, doesn't it? Of course, before we get too excited, remember: Costa Rica's "reward" for topping the group in 2001 was a place in the same group as Brazil and Turkey, the eventual champions and third-place finishers respectively. On the other hand, it's not clear whether seeding is actually based on group finish or world ranking (though said ranking can be affected by the same things group finish is - namely, wins, draws and losses), which might better explain 2002 from a Costa Rican perspective. As long as the U.S. doesn't end up in a Group of Death I'll probably be happy enough, though. There's no reason why this team shouldn't be able to hang with most of the world.
Pretty good game against Panama considering who was starting - a young team with two players getting their first caps (Mapp and Carroll), and few real veterans of the 2002 team (Eddie Pope was the only player on tonight's roster who actually played in the Germany game, and he stayed on the bench). Kyle Martino and Taylor Twellman got their first international goals, and just a handful of minutes apart - Martino's was a great first-time shot out of the air that snuck past the near post, while Twellman did well to finish when the Panamanian keeper came off his line and misplayed the ball.
As good an outing as it was for Martino, Twellman, Mapp and Carroll (the latter two of whom got specific postgame praise from Arena for their performances in their first caps), it must have been disappointing for Brian Ching, another possible candidate for second striker in Germany. (There's also Landon Donovan, but he can play attacking midfield just as well, as he mostly did in 2002.) He didn't get in until the 74th minute and had an awkward handball in the box - while under exactly no pressure - lead to a penalty kick that was fortunately pushed wide left.
The U.S. did look pretty good, though. The team seemed to take a while to get cohesive on offense, but Panama rarely was able to pose a significant threat in the other direction, and considering the third-string U.S. team thrown out there, that's pretty good. (Especially since Panama is much improved recently.)
Combine the win with a Mexico loss and the U.S. tops the group for the first time since the final round expanded to six teams in 1994. Eddie Lewis' goal at Azteca looks pretty huge now, doesn't it? Of course, before we get too excited, remember: Costa Rica's "reward" for topping the group in 2001 was a place in the same group as Brazil and Turkey, the eventual champions and third-place finishers respectively. On the other hand, it's not clear whether seeding is actually based on group finish or world ranking (though said ranking can be affected by the same things group finish is - namely, wins, draws and losses), which might better explain 2002 from a Costa Rican perspective. As long as the U.S. doesn't end up in a Group of Death I'll probably be happy enough, though. There's no reason why this team shouldn't be able to hang with most of the world.
Sunday, October 09, 2005
The field is nearly set
Saturday's slate of games hardly set the entire World Cup field, but by the end of Wednesday everything will be decided except for the handful of playoff spots. Then it's an agonizing two-month wait for the draw, followed by another half-year before we actually get to watch the whole thing play out. World Cup years - and the ones preceding them because of the qualifying - are actually terrible times to be a fan of club soccer, because your team's players are frequently taking off to play in international games and sometimes return from them hurt, an aggrieving problem that's becoming so common that the G14, a group of Europe's biggest clubs including Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, AC and Inter Milan, Juventus, Real Madrid, Ajax, Bayern Munich, and Barcelona, is threatening to start withholding its players from international matches if compensation for the clubs isn't arranged, especially for when a player gets injured during international duty and has to miss time with his club.
(When you think about it, this makes a lot of sense - clubs shell out most of the money, then the national squads step in, wear the players down, and toss them back. I'm one of the people who thinks that playing for one's country should trump any club obligations, not least because players shuttle between clubs in international soccer more than in any of the North American pro sports. But it's not really fair for the national associations to shrug their shoulders when injuries happen, leaving the clubs on the hook for a player who didn't even get hurt while playing for them.)
On the other hand, they're great times to be a fan of world soccer, and since I don't have the energy to follow more than one premier league regularly (the EPL, natch), it's nice to be able to keep track of what everyone in every corner of the globe is doing without feeling like you're overstepping your bounds. With that said, let's take a look at how qualifying is shaking out as it rumbles to a close.
UEFA
Group One: With 31 points, and seven clear of the Czechs with one game to go, the Netherlands have wrapped up the top spot in this group, doing so with a 2-0 win over the Czechs in Prague yesterday. The second spot is still up for grabs; Romania claimed it with a 1-0 defeat of Finland, but they don't play another game, whereas the Czechs, just a point behind, head to Helsinki on Wednesday. Presumably this is a win for them and a spot in Germany (at 9-0-3, the Czechs would be at a .750 winning percentage, a mark that only England and Sweden, among second place teams, could challenge), but the difficulty of sorting out the tiebreakers here when not all teams play the same number of games is enough that I'm not going to bother calculating it.
Group Two: This one's been settled for a while, with Ukraine walking away with it. However, the second spot is very much up for grabs. Denmark surged into third on 19 points with a 1-0 defeat of Greece yesterday; Turkey is on 20 and the Euro 2004 champs are stuck on 18. All three face the group's bottom dwellers on Wednesday; Turkey has the hardest test, taking on four-win Albania in Albania (where the Albanians beat Greece, fresh off their Euro 2004 win, a year-plus ago), while Denmark gets woeful 0-1-10 Kazakhstan. Greece gets Georgia. A win by Turkey puts them through, likely to a playoff; a loss by Turkey and Denmark can get through with a win or draw; a loss by Turkey and a loss or draw by Denmark and Greece can get through with a win. A Turkish draw, Greek win and Danish loss would result in yet another scenario; having played to two goalless draws with Turkey, Greece would be out on goal differential unless they beat Georgia by eight goals.
Group Three: Portugal clinched their spot with a no-kidding win over Liechtenstein, though they actually had to come back to do it, trailing 1-0 at halftime at home before equalizing shortly into the second half and sealing the win on Nuno Gomes' goal at 86 minutes. Slovakia and Russia both won to stay deadlocked in second at 22 points - one game left and guess what? They meet in Slovakia on Wednesday, one of a handful of do-or-die games that make qualifying so great. If the teams manage to draw, the score would matter - 0-0 sends the Slovaks through, anything at 2-2 or higher sends the Russians through, and 1-1 means we head for goal differential, with Slovakia holding a decisive edge. If I'm Russia, I worry about scoring two goals first and then just hope the rest takes care of itself.
Group Four: As much of a mess as ever. Israel now lead the group on 18 points, but Switzerland and France both have 17 and the Irish have 16. The Israelis are done, meaning they need a ton of help. France and Switzerland both hold tiebreakers with Israel on away goals, leaving the only option for the Israelis to advance a scenario in which Ireland defeats Switzerland at Lansdowne Road to win the group and, at the same time, 1-1-7 Cyprus manages to stun an injury-decimated France squad in Paris. Even with their injuries, France is most likely going through (a 1-1 draw on Saturday gives them the away goal tiebreaker with the Swiss); it's second place that is more likely to be decided in the Switzerland-Ireland clash, another winner-takes-all battle that almost certainly means the difference between second and fourth. Since a draw would be enough for the Swiss to advance, look for them to play conservatively. My best guess is that France and Switzerland come out of this group, since wins among the top four have been at a premium all year.
Group Five: Italy, on 20 points, wrapped up the top spot after putting Slovenia away late. With Scotland's loss to Belarus, combined with Norway's win over Moldova, eliminating the Scots' slim hopes, Norway wrapped up the second spot, as Slovenia is the only team that could catch the Norwegians - but they can at best tie, and Norway has defeated Slovenia twice in qualifying. That makes Group Five the only group that is resolved going into the final day.
Group Six: England may not have looked great, but they took care of business by beating Austria, making the final day's showdown against Poland another winner-take-all match. The Poles are on 24 points and two clear of England, so only a win will send the English through, though even a loss or tie will earn them a spot in the field because of their gaudy 7-1-1 record. So actually, the last match here doesn't mean much - though it will determine the winner of the group, the loser is going to Germany without a playoff regardless.
Group Seven: Serbia, Spain, and Bosnia all won on Saturday to stay close - on 19, 17, and 16 points respectively. Serbia and Bosnia face off on Wednesday, while Spain get minnows San Marino. Spain will clearly top the group if Serbia fail to win; a win by Bosnia would send them through and leave the Serbs out, which would be a shocking result for a team that has only conceded a single goal - away to Spain in a 1-1 draw - in qualifying so far.
Group Eight: Croatia's 1-0 win in their head-to-head match yesterday was huge, putting the Croats top of the group on 23 points (at 7-2-0, they are in a select group of unbeaten teams). The last day's results could still swing the group, but they would require not only Sweden to defeat Iceland at home (the likely outcome), but Croatia to lose their first of qualifying at Hungary. This is possible, but not likely. The Swedes should take heart, however, as a win would leave them at 8-0-2 and should send them through as the second automatic qualifier of the second-place clubs.
AFRICA
Group One: Togo clinched the group in sensational fashion on Saturday, coming back from a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 over Congo in Brazzaville. The win kept them two ahead of Senegal, the feel-good story of the 2002 Cup, who won 3-0 over Mali in classic too-little, too-late fashion. Of Africa's five qualifiers, four are first-timers; Togo is one of those.
Group Two: Ghana needed only a draw against lowly Cape Verde to go through, and did so in fine 4-0 fashion. Congo DR, the only squad that could even mathematically catch Ghana, gained only a draw with South Africa.
Group Three: A month after a debilitating 3-2 home loss put Ivory Coast a point behind Cameroon for the group title, the Elephants won 3-1 at Sudan while the Indomitable Lions stumbled to a 1-1 home draw with Egypt thanks to a missed penalty in stoppage time. Talk about a reversal of fortune.
Group Four: Angola's head-to-head edge over Nigeria meant the Super Eagles needed a win and for Angola not to win to make it back to the World Cup. However, while Nigeria were pounding Zimbabwe 5-1, Angola slipped past Rwanda 1-0 in Kigali on a header by captain Fabrice Akwa in the 80th minute.
Group Five: The only African qualifier to have appeared in a previous World Cup final, Tunisia drew Morocco 2-2 to remain a point ahead at the top of the group and assure qualification.
CONMEBOL
Paraguay and Ecuador sealed their spots in the field with, respectively, a 1-0 win over Venezuela and a 0-0 draw with Uruguay. With one game left, the playoff spot - the right to face Australia in a two-legged playoff - is all that remains. Uruguay hold the spot on 22 points but must host Argentina on Wednesday. Chasers Colombia and Chile, on 21 points each, travel to Paraguay and host Ecuador, respectively. Various outcomes remain possible for the final spot.
CONCACAF
Costa Rica's 3-0 triumph over an uncoordinated U.S. side puts them through to the Finals once more. The playoff spot, which goes up against the Asian playoff winner, is currently held by Trinidad and Tobago on ten points. Guatemala, on eight, are still alive; both teams have tough but winnable matches coming up. Guatemala host Costa Rica, while Trinidad host Mexico; the Mexicans need at least a point to clinch overall first place (whether they think that matters remains to be seen), while Costa Rica cannot move up unless the U.S. lose to winless Panama (an unlikely turn of events). If Guatemala win, Trinidad must win to get through; if Guatemala do anything else, T&T are through no matter what.
ASIA
In what was not quite the worst-case scenario, Uzbekistan managed only a 1-1 draw with Bahrain in the controversial replay of their match last month that was declared void due to a refereeing mistake. Uzbekistan now head to Bahrain for the reverse needing a win; a 2-2 (or greater) draw would also be enough for the Uzbeks; 1-1 would lead to a shootout.
Wednesday's going to be fun in Europe, huh?
(When you think about it, this makes a lot of sense - clubs shell out most of the money, then the national squads step in, wear the players down, and toss them back. I'm one of the people who thinks that playing for one's country should trump any club obligations, not least because players shuttle between clubs in international soccer more than in any of the North American pro sports. But it's not really fair for the national associations to shrug their shoulders when injuries happen, leaving the clubs on the hook for a player who didn't even get hurt while playing for them.)
On the other hand, they're great times to be a fan of world soccer, and since I don't have the energy to follow more than one premier league regularly (the EPL, natch), it's nice to be able to keep track of what everyone in every corner of the globe is doing without feeling like you're overstepping your bounds. With that said, let's take a look at how qualifying is shaking out as it rumbles to a close.
UEFA
Group One: With 31 points, and seven clear of the Czechs with one game to go, the Netherlands have wrapped up the top spot in this group, doing so with a 2-0 win over the Czechs in Prague yesterday. The second spot is still up for grabs; Romania claimed it with a 1-0 defeat of Finland, but they don't play another game, whereas the Czechs, just a point behind, head to Helsinki on Wednesday. Presumably this is a win for them and a spot in Germany (at 9-0-3, the Czechs would be at a .750 winning percentage, a mark that only England and Sweden, among second place teams, could challenge), but the difficulty of sorting out the tiebreakers here when not all teams play the same number of games is enough that I'm not going to bother calculating it.
Group Two: This one's been settled for a while, with Ukraine walking away with it. However, the second spot is very much up for grabs. Denmark surged into third on 19 points with a 1-0 defeat of Greece yesterday; Turkey is on 20 and the Euro 2004 champs are stuck on 18. All three face the group's bottom dwellers on Wednesday; Turkey has the hardest test, taking on four-win Albania in Albania (where the Albanians beat Greece, fresh off their Euro 2004 win, a year-plus ago), while Denmark gets woeful 0-1-10 Kazakhstan. Greece gets Georgia. A win by Turkey puts them through, likely to a playoff; a loss by Turkey and Denmark can get through with a win or draw; a loss by Turkey and a loss or draw by Denmark and Greece can get through with a win. A Turkish draw, Greek win and Danish loss would result in yet another scenario; having played to two goalless draws with Turkey, Greece would be out on goal differential unless they beat Georgia by eight goals.
Group Three: Portugal clinched their spot with a no-kidding win over Liechtenstein, though they actually had to come back to do it, trailing 1-0 at halftime at home before equalizing shortly into the second half and sealing the win on Nuno Gomes' goal at 86 minutes. Slovakia and Russia both won to stay deadlocked in second at 22 points - one game left and guess what? They meet in Slovakia on Wednesday, one of a handful of do-or-die games that make qualifying so great. If the teams manage to draw, the score would matter - 0-0 sends the Slovaks through, anything at 2-2 or higher sends the Russians through, and 1-1 means we head for goal differential, with Slovakia holding a decisive edge. If I'm Russia, I worry about scoring two goals first and then just hope the rest takes care of itself.
Group Four: As much of a mess as ever. Israel now lead the group on 18 points, but Switzerland and France both have 17 and the Irish have 16. The Israelis are done, meaning they need a ton of help. France and Switzerland both hold tiebreakers with Israel on away goals, leaving the only option for the Israelis to advance a scenario in which Ireland defeats Switzerland at Lansdowne Road to win the group and, at the same time, 1-1-7 Cyprus manages to stun an injury-decimated France squad in Paris. Even with their injuries, France is most likely going through (a 1-1 draw on Saturday gives them the away goal tiebreaker with the Swiss); it's second place that is more likely to be decided in the Switzerland-Ireland clash, another winner-takes-all battle that almost certainly means the difference between second and fourth. Since a draw would be enough for the Swiss to advance, look for them to play conservatively. My best guess is that France and Switzerland come out of this group, since wins among the top four have been at a premium all year.
Group Five: Italy, on 20 points, wrapped up the top spot after putting Slovenia away late. With Scotland's loss to Belarus, combined with Norway's win over Moldova, eliminating the Scots' slim hopes, Norway wrapped up the second spot, as Slovenia is the only team that could catch the Norwegians - but they can at best tie, and Norway has defeated Slovenia twice in qualifying. That makes Group Five the only group that is resolved going into the final day.
Group Six: England may not have looked great, but they took care of business by beating Austria, making the final day's showdown against Poland another winner-take-all match. The Poles are on 24 points and two clear of England, so only a win will send the English through, though even a loss or tie will earn them a spot in the field because of their gaudy 7-1-1 record. So actually, the last match here doesn't mean much - though it will determine the winner of the group, the loser is going to Germany without a playoff regardless.
Group Seven: Serbia, Spain, and Bosnia all won on Saturday to stay close - on 19, 17, and 16 points respectively. Serbia and Bosnia face off on Wednesday, while Spain get minnows San Marino. Spain will clearly top the group if Serbia fail to win; a win by Bosnia would send them through and leave the Serbs out, which would be a shocking result for a team that has only conceded a single goal - away to Spain in a 1-1 draw - in qualifying so far.
Group Eight: Croatia's 1-0 win in their head-to-head match yesterday was huge, putting the Croats top of the group on 23 points (at 7-2-0, they are in a select group of unbeaten teams). The last day's results could still swing the group, but they would require not only Sweden to defeat Iceland at home (the likely outcome), but Croatia to lose their first of qualifying at Hungary. This is possible, but not likely. The Swedes should take heart, however, as a win would leave them at 8-0-2 and should send them through as the second automatic qualifier of the second-place clubs.
AFRICA
Group One: Togo clinched the group in sensational fashion on Saturday, coming back from a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 over Congo in Brazzaville. The win kept them two ahead of Senegal, the feel-good story of the 2002 Cup, who won 3-0 over Mali in classic too-little, too-late fashion. Of Africa's five qualifiers, four are first-timers; Togo is one of those.
Group Two: Ghana needed only a draw against lowly Cape Verde to go through, and did so in fine 4-0 fashion. Congo DR, the only squad that could even mathematically catch Ghana, gained only a draw with South Africa.
Group Three: A month after a debilitating 3-2 home loss put Ivory Coast a point behind Cameroon for the group title, the Elephants won 3-1 at Sudan while the Indomitable Lions stumbled to a 1-1 home draw with Egypt thanks to a missed penalty in stoppage time. Talk about a reversal of fortune.
Group Four: Angola's head-to-head edge over Nigeria meant the Super Eagles needed a win and for Angola not to win to make it back to the World Cup. However, while Nigeria were pounding Zimbabwe 5-1, Angola slipped past Rwanda 1-0 in Kigali on a header by captain Fabrice Akwa in the 80th minute.
Group Five: The only African qualifier to have appeared in a previous World Cup final, Tunisia drew Morocco 2-2 to remain a point ahead at the top of the group and assure qualification.
CONMEBOL
Paraguay and Ecuador sealed their spots in the field with, respectively, a 1-0 win over Venezuela and a 0-0 draw with Uruguay. With one game left, the playoff spot - the right to face Australia in a two-legged playoff - is all that remains. Uruguay hold the spot on 22 points but must host Argentina on Wednesday. Chasers Colombia and Chile, on 21 points each, travel to Paraguay and host Ecuador, respectively. Various outcomes remain possible for the final spot.
CONCACAF
Costa Rica's 3-0 triumph over an uncoordinated U.S. side puts them through to the Finals once more. The playoff spot, which goes up against the Asian playoff winner, is currently held by Trinidad and Tobago on ten points. Guatemala, on eight, are still alive; both teams have tough but winnable matches coming up. Guatemala host Costa Rica, while Trinidad host Mexico; the Mexicans need at least a point to clinch overall first place (whether they think that matters remains to be seen), while Costa Rica cannot move up unless the U.S. lose to winless Panama (an unlikely turn of events). If Guatemala win, Trinidad must win to get through; if Guatemala do anything else, T&T are through no matter what.
ASIA
In what was not quite the worst-case scenario, Uzbekistan managed only a 1-1 draw with Bahrain in the controversial replay of their match last month that was declared void due to a refereeing mistake. Uzbekistan now head to Bahrain for the reverse needing a win; a 2-2 (or greater) draw would also be enough for the Uzbeks; 1-1 would lead to a shootout.
Wednesday's going to be fun in Europe, huh?
Washed away
Ugly game for the U.S., there's no doubt about it. Obviously it wasn't a game we needed to win, and Saprissa isn't the easiest place to play, especially in the rain, and Arena was trying out some new players. But it wasn't a performance that's going to inspire anyone, at least not on the defensive end - the first two Costa Rican goals were created by incredibly ineffective defense on the part of the U.S.
I didn't see the whole thing because I wasn't at home, and my girlfriend insisted on flipping back and forth between the game and a painful Saturday Night Live featuring the unwatchable tag team of host Jon Heder and musical guest Ashlee Simpson. What I did see mostly spoke for itself - the Americans had a few opportunities but never really threatened to finish, except for when they had a goal called back on an offsides, and on one shot in the second half the ball was cleared off the line by the last Costa Rican defender. Neither team played great in the conditions, but Costa Rica were quick to pounce on their opponents' mistakes at the back. Factor in the fact that Costa Rica needed the win and you've got all the ingredients. (Technically they didn't need the win, as Mexico beat Guatemala, but you always want to get in on your own terms if you can. Anyway, they may or may not have known the result of Mexico/Guatemala when they took the field.)
Really, I don't have much else to say about this one. There weren't many positives for the U.S. that wouldn't just have come from how a certain player played, but since I couldn't watch it as closely as I might have, it was hard to notice. I'll try to pay more attention when Panama comes to town.
I didn't see the whole thing because I wasn't at home, and my girlfriend insisted on flipping back and forth between the game and a painful Saturday Night Live featuring the unwatchable tag team of host Jon Heder and musical guest Ashlee Simpson. What I did see mostly spoke for itself - the Americans had a few opportunities but never really threatened to finish, except for when they had a goal called back on an offsides, and on one shot in the second half the ball was cleared off the line by the last Costa Rican defender. Neither team played great in the conditions, but Costa Rica were quick to pounce on their opponents' mistakes at the back. Factor in the fact that Costa Rica needed the win and you've got all the ingredients. (Technically they didn't need the win, as Mexico beat Guatemala, but you always want to get in on your own terms if you can. Anyway, they may or may not have known the result of Mexico/Guatemala when they took the field.)
Really, I don't have much else to say about this one. There weren't many positives for the U.S. that wouldn't just have come from how a certain player played, but since I couldn't watch it as closely as I might have, it was hard to notice. I'll try to pay more attention when Panama comes to town.
Saturday, October 01, 2005
Maybe the critics are right
People have been griping lately about the lack of scoring in the Premiership making it less interesting overall. And maybe they're right. I don't think you have to have goals for a particular game to be exciting or interesting, but it's usually better if there are. Wednesday's Chelsea-Liverpool game - the latest in a string of CL games between the two that has seen virtually no scoring - was one example of a game that was still reasonably exciting: plenty of good end-to-end football found its way onto the pitch, even if the goals didn't. But despite that, there weren't many good chances. When the best team in England doesn't even look in real danger of finding the net - or of having it found against them - that isn't the most exciting stuff. The EPL needs some more goals.
Man U at least got some scoring in the 2-1 win over Benfica, but aside from the goals it was kind of a dull game, though maybe that's just because I don't really care for Man U.
The question is, what would you do about this problem? Arsene Wenger suggests an extra point for wins by three goals or more, but this seems like a "rich get richer" situation that isn't going to help many teams. I mean, how many three-goal blowouts do you see a year in the entire EPL? A few dozen. Last year there were 50 all year, 2.5 per team. Not a very high number. Some teams, naturally, didn't have any (a couple finished on neither end of such a blowout), but even a Manchester United only had four. Plus, proving my rich get richer point, with ten and eight respectively, Arsenal and Chelsea combined for more than a third of the total. And of course they were the top two teams.
Of course, what you don't want is "more blowouts," and obviously that's not what Wenger is suggesting - he's suggesting that the extra points would produce more attacking football as teams try for the blowout. What you really want, I guess, are high-scoring games. In how many games last season did the clubs combine for five goals or more and it wasn't a three-goal blowout? The answer is twenty-five. Barely more than one per team. And certainly some teams never had any, especially when you note that Norwich City was responsible for seven of them.
Yes, 1-0 and 2-1 games, if not 0-0 and 1-1 games, are far more likely than, say, a game like Norwich-Boro on January 22, in which Norwich went up 1-0 in the 18th, gave up four goals in the next hour, scored one in the 80th to pull within 4-2, and then somehow scored two in stoppage time to steal a point. Even without a winner that's dramatic as hell. Not that a 1-1 game in which the tying goal is scored late isn't, but it's far more likely. 84 games last year finished either 0-0 or 1-1, meaning that every team in the league had an average of four games that were probably fairly boring. There were 30 0-0 draws total, which is five more than the number of games that finished 3-2, 4-3, 4-2, 5-3, or 5-4, though at least both are relative outliers. In perhaps the worst example of a team being rather boring on the whole, West Brom had 11 1-1 draws and three more that finished 0-0, meaning that more than a third of their season was taken up with generally bland football, though at least they made up for it by staying up on the last day in dramatic fashion.
But 30 out of 380 0-0 draws is a fairly small percentage. (Less than a twelfth, in fact; about .08, which won't even get you arrested.) On the other hand, that was last year - the bigger problem is this year, which has already seen nine games finish 0-0 out of just 66 played, a percentage of .14, creeping up on twice last year's number. Seven more games have finished 1-1; only three so far have seen four goals scored by one team. (One each for Chelsea and Arsenal.)
Maybe an even bigger problem is the number of shutouts, though. In 66 matches, the losing team was blanked in fully 32 of them! Adding the 0-0 draws on to that gives you a horrifying total of 41 games out of 66 - 62% of the games played - in which at least one team did not score. Last year, that figure was 188 out of 380 - plenty, but still less than half. In 2002/2003, though, it was 185 out of 380. Not much less. And this year's figure does have a small sample size.
In other words, the stats suggest that it's probably just alarmist stuff. I'm guessing some teams haven't hit their strides yet, but in the end I think we'll be about where we've been, goal-wise. Let's not hit the panic button just yet over one-sixth of a season. But by all means, let's root for the English teams to be involved in some more exciting CL games, because so far the ones I've gotten to watch haven't been great.
Man U at least got some scoring in the 2-1 win over Benfica, but aside from the goals it was kind of a dull game, though maybe that's just because I don't really care for Man U.
The question is, what would you do about this problem? Arsene Wenger suggests an extra point for wins by three goals or more, but this seems like a "rich get richer" situation that isn't going to help many teams. I mean, how many three-goal blowouts do you see a year in the entire EPL? A few dozen. Last year there were 50 all year, 2.5 per team. Not a very high number. Some teams, naturally, didn't have any (a couple finished on neither end of such a blowout), but even a Manchester United only had four. Plus, proving my rich get richer point, with ten and eight respectively, Arsenal and Chelsea combined for more than a third of the total. And of course they were the top two teams.
Of course, what you don't want is "more blowouts," and obviously that's not what Wenger is suggesting - he's suggesting that the extra points would produce more attacking football as teams try for the blowout. What you really want, I guess, are high-scoring games. In how many games last season did the clubs combine for five goals or more and it wasn't a three-goal blowout? The answer is twenty-five. Barely more than one per team. And certainly some teams never had any, especially when you note that Norwich City was responsible for seven of them.
Yes, 1-0 and 2-1 games, if not 0-0 and 1-1 games, are far more likely than, say, a game like Norwich-Boro on January 22, in which Norwich went up 1-0 in the 18th, gave up four goals in the next hour, scored one in the 80th to pull within 4-2, and then somehow scored two in stoppage time to steal a point. Even without a winner that's dramatic as hell. Not that a 1-1 game in which the tying goal is scored late isn't, but it's far more likely. 84 games last year finished either 0-0 or 1-1, meaning that every team in the league had an average of four games that were probably fairly boring. There were 30 0-0 draws total, which is five more than the number of games that finished 3-2, 4-3, 4-2, 5-3, or 5-4, though at least both are relative outliers. In perhaps the worst example of a team being rather boring on the whole, West Brom had 11 1-1 draws and three more that finished 0-0, meaning that more than a third of their season was taken up with generally bland football, though at least they made up for it by staying up on the last day in dramatic fashion.
But 30 out of 380 0-0 draws is a fairly small percentage. (Less than a twelfth, in fact; about .08, which won't even get you arrested.) On the other hand, that was last year - the bigger problem is this year, which has already seen nine games finish 0-0 out of just 66 played, a percentage of .14, creeping up on twice last year's number. Seven more games have finished 1-1; only three so far have seen four goals scored by one team. (One each for Chelsea and Arsenal.)
Maybe an even bigger problem is the number of shutouts, though. In 66 matches, the losing team was blanked in fully 32 of them! Adding the 0-0 draws on to that gives you a horrifying total of 41 games out of 66 - 62% of the games played - in which at least one team did not score. Last year, that figure was 188 out of 380 - plenty, but still less than half. In 2002/2003, though, it was 185 out of 380. Not much less. And this year's figure does have a small sample size.
In other words, the stats suggest that it's probably just alarmist stuff. I'm guessing some teams haven't hit their strides yet, but in the end I think we'll be about where we've been, goal-wise. Let's not hit the panic button just yet over one-sixth of a season. But by all means, let's root for the English teams to be involved in some more exciting CL games, because so far the ones I've gotten to watch haven't been great.
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