So, on Monday, December 6, the Manchester City official club website posted a video interview with Carlos Tevez in which he said all the right things, playing down his supposedly stormy relationship with Roberto Mancini, claiming to be happy in Manchester, and suggesting that the press have blown things like his supposed desire to retire from football soon out of proportion.
Then, this morning, after Tevez missed Saturday's game against West Ham (a 3-1 win) because of suspension related to an accumulation of yellow cards, news started trickling out that Tevez had submitted a transfer request to City which the club had rejected. ESPN Soccernet is now suggesting that Tevez will talk to the press and "blow the lid off" the behind-the-scenes at City and reveal that the club is in fact in the turmoil that the press has been claiming, even as recent wins had seemingly tempered those fears.
To which I would say: GTFO.
Tevez is, undoubtedly, a vital part of the City offense, as he would be at most clubs. But if all the news that's coming out is true - that Tevez, already on one of the richest contracts in England, demanded still more money just to see out the season; that after accepting the captain's armband and insisting in every actual interview that the issues attributed to him were being blown out of proportion, he apparently can't stand being at the club any more - I say dump him. It would be a pain for the rest of the season, for sure. But if this is the behavior of the man chosen as captain of the squad... how can the rest of the players avoid falling into line behind him? If this is leading by example, the club is destined to fracture from the inside, and the owners and Mancini should take pains to stop that happening. (Of course, if the trouble with Tevez is attributable to his relationship with Mancini, one suspects that Mancini will be deemed more expendable.)
Here's my problem. Let's assume that everything coming out today is true. This means that either (a) when Tevez gave the interview last week he was lying through his teeth, or (b) that somehow within the space of a week he changed his mind (perhaps again) and decided that his situation at City was, far from being a happy and successful one, completely unworkable. To which I would say: how is that possible?
Also, okay, Tevez misses his family and this probably informs some of his behavior. The guy is a multi-millionaire. Even if they don't want to or can't live in England, couldn't he afford to fly them over at least occasionally, so he isn't going months without seeing his family? And if they can't or won't leave Argentina for even a few days, maybe he shouldn't have gone to England in the first damn place. Sleep in the bed you made, Carlos. You want to be one of the best players in the world and be paid like it? This is how it goes down. If you don't, I'm sure Boca Juniors would be happy to have you.
It's also possible that the infamous Kia Joorabchian has his fingerprints all over this. City's statement on the transfer request certainly implied as much. The question, though, is what does Joorabchian have to gain? It's highly doubtful that Tevez could make more money anywhere else and City supposedly offered a raise to 250,000 pounds a week which was rejected. With no obvious motive from the agent side, I'm forced to conclude that Tevez is just an utter head case who simply can't deal without having whatever he wants whenever he wants it, no matter how it affects anyone else. To which I say, again, fine: GTFO.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
City 3-0 Liverpool
Quite the coming-out party. I was unsure of what to expect following the Spurs game; Spurs are good, of course, and the game was at White Hart Lane where they rarely lose (only seven times over the last two seasons, and they seem to step it up for big games; of the three losses last year, two came to Stoke and Wolves, and they beat Arsenal and Chelsea in a four-day span to set up the win over City at CoMS to clinch fourth). But even with that in mind, City looked disjointed, a rare offensive threat, and their defense resembled matadors; but for the heroics of Joe Hart, surely the game would have finished 3-0 or 4-0 like so many this season already have. And City had not defeated Liverpool in the last four Premiership campaigns; 0-0 draws were something of a regularity. I thought, in spite of the game being at home where City are usually much better, that a draw would be a good result; the next three games are against more or less bottom-half sides, and it seemed that so long as City could stay unbeaten against the upper-echelon sides while their team gelled, this would bode well for the future.
Well, either Liverpool are just not very good this year, or the future truly is now. A City side that looked like it had never played together before (and probably hadn't) in the first game suddenly looked composed and assured, having the lion's share of possession thanks to crisp passing and largely excellent midfield defense that snuffed out most Liverpool attacks before they had a chance to go anywhere. The formation was interesting - a 4-3-3 that played more like a Tower of Hanoi, 4-3-2-1, with Lescott, Kompany, Kolo Toure and Richards across the back, Barry, De Jong and Yaya Toure in the middle, Johnson and the recently-arrived Milner as attacking wingers and Tevez up front as the lone true striker. Tevez returned to his previous form, scoring twice, the first a bit of a poach off Richards' 52nd-minute header that Tevez barely got a touch on (if he even did; I'll be interested to see if the FA bother altering the ruling) and the second a well-struck penalty in the 68th. Barry had opened the scoring after some nice buildup, with Johnson springing Milner along the right side of the area and Milner's cross falling right to the feet of a charging Barry. Joe Hart also had his second straight highlight-reel cluster of saves as he twice denied Liverpool from close range near the hour mark to preserve the 2-0 lead.
Johnson, to me, confirmed that he should not only be starting but should probably be playing every minute for which he is fit and able, at least within the league. His play was outstanding and he's a constant threat to create. Milner likewise had an impressive debut that suggests he should be in the side on a regular basis, as he was a force to be reckoned with at both ends, creating chances but also flying back on defense when needed.
All this does have me a little nervous in terms of the squad's depth, however. Given how good the team looked playing together in this game, how could you make changes? But with players like Adebayor, Balotelli, Wright-Phillips and David Silva on the bench... how can you not? If you want to keep these guys, they have to play. I'll be curious to see who starts the return leg against FC Timisoara this Thursday; with a Sunday game at Sunderland looming, I wouldn't be surprised to see Adebayor or Balotelli (assuming his knee is okay) get a start, and possibly even Given, who desperately needs to be placated with playing time if there's to be any hope of keeping him around.
Nevertheless, I suppose "too many good players" is not the worst problem one can have. City have set the marker, and now they have to keep meeting that expectation. Falling asleep against lesser sides, as they sometimes did under Mark Hughes in the first half of last season, will not be tolerated. And with the next two months of matches providing a real combination of strong home tests (Chelsea and Arsenal) and road games that should be still be easily winnable (at Wigan, at Sunderland, at Blackpool, at Wolves), City have a chance to declare their intention to take a real shot at the title. The Chelsea game, in particular, an early-morning kickoff in the US on September 25, will tell us a lot. Beating Liverpool is good. But beating Chelsea - as City actually did twice last season - means that the blue side of Manchester is likely here to stay.
Well, either Liverpool are just not very good this year, or the future truly is now. A City side that looked like it had never played together before (and probably hadn't) in the first game suddenly looked composed and assured, having the lion's share of possession thanks to crisp passing and largely excellent midfield defense that snuffed out most Liverpool attacks before they had a chance to go anywhere. The formation was interesting - a 4-3-3 that played more like a Tower of Hanoi, 4-3-2-1, with Lescott, Kompany, Kolo Toure and Richards across the back, Barry, De Jong and Yaya Toure in the middle, Johnson and the recently-arrived Milner as attacking wingers and Tevez up front as the lone true striker. Tevez returned to his previous form, scoring twice, the first a bit of a poach off Richards' 52nd-minute header that Tevez barely got a touch on (if he even did; I'll be interested to see if the FA bother altering the ruling) and the second a well-struck penalty in the 68th. Barry had opened the scoring after some nice buildup, with Johnson springing Milner along the right side of the area and Milner's cross falling right to the feet of a charging Barry. Joe Hart also had his second straight highlight-reel cluster of saves as he twice denied Liverpool from close range near the hour mark to preserve the 2-0 lead.
Johnson, to me, confirmed that he should not only be starting but should probably be playing every minute for which he is fit and able, at least within the league. His play was outstanding and he's a constant threat to create. Milner likewise had an impressive debut that suggests he should be in the side on a regular basis, as he was a force to be reckoned with at both ends, creating chances but also flying back on defense when needed.
All this does have me a little nervous in terms of the squad's depth, however. Given how good the team looked playing together in this game, how could you make changes? But with players like Adebayor, Balotelli, Wright-Phillips and David Silva on the bench... how can you not? If you want to keep these guys, they have to play. I'll be curious to see who starts the return leg against FC Timisoara this Thursday; with a Sunday game at Sunderland looming, I wouldn't be surprised to see Adebayor or Balotelli (assuming his knee is okay) get a start, and possibly even Given, who desperately needs to be placated with playing time if there's to be any hope of keeping him around.
Nevertheless, I suppose "too many good players" is not the worst problem one can have. City have set the marker, and now they have to keep meeting that expectation. Falling asleep against lesser sides, as they sometimes did under Mark Hughes in the first half of last season, will not be tolerated. And with the next two months of matches providing a real combination of strong home tests (Chelsea and Arsenal) and road games that should be still be easily winnable (at Wigan, at Sunderland, at Blackpool, at Wolves), City have a chance to declare their intention to take a real shot at the title. The Chelsea game, in particular, an early-morning kickoff in the US on September 25, will tell us a lot. Beating Liverpool is good. But beating Chelsea - as City actually did twice last season - means that the blue side of Manchester is likely here to stay.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Spurs 0-0 City
First game of the new season, first real City game for a lot of new boys... and it sure looked like it. The first half was a real high-wire act, with Joe Hart (perhaps cemented as the #1 keeper by virtue of being picked today) saving City's bacon on several occasions. Good job by Vincent Kompany at the back as well.
The outfield started in a 4-5-1, with Richards, Kolo Toure, Kompany and Kolarov across the back. The crowded midfield started De Jong, Yaya Toure, Barry, Silva and Wright-Phillips, with Tevez a lone striker up top. While a strong lineup by most standards, it was clear from the outset that these guys simply had not spent much time playing together. In the first half, a sprightly Tottenham side went on blazing runs, intercepted passes, and probably should have scored at least three or four times but for some outstanding work from Hart and one save by the post. The City back four at least played well (a much more impressive showing than they delivered in the preseason, as a unit), but the stacked midfield just seemed disjointed. It didn't help when Micah Richards came flying forward, as is his wont, although David Silva seemed almost to be moving into a striking position at times as well.
The second half was an improvement. City moved the ball better and had a lot more possession, but they still gave away some big chances and really never looked seriously like scoring themselves. Things improved a bit after the introduction of Adam Johnson for Wright-Phillips with 25 minutes or so to play, and while Emmanuel Adebayor will probably not be thrilled that he was only on for the last ten minutes, he was probably more threatening in that short span than Tevez was for most of the game. (Tevez was playing as though Gonzalo Higuain were still waiting in the box. Not sure he can keep playing as a lone striker if he remains so deep.)
Not the worst start overall considering that the side clearly will need to gain cohesion as the season goes along and considering City's recent lack of success against Spurs. Still, you'd have to admit that City were fairly lucky to come away with a draw.
Stray thoughts:
* Now that it seems Joe Hart has been selected as City's #1, whither Shay Given? Will he indeed force his way out? Could Mancini possibly throw just enough starts - between a few off-days for Hart and ideally deep runs in the Europa League and the two cups - Given's way to keep him happy? Is he sold or loaned out? Does he go to Arsenal? Could City possibly justify letting a viable #1 keeper go to a theoretical rival for top-four places?
* Will Mancini stay in a 4-5-1? Especially if Tevez isn't going to be as aggressive into the box, I don't know if you can play him alone. The problem with a 4-4-2 is how overstocked that midfield is. I think Johnson should be starting, but assuming that Yaya Toure and David Silva have to start pretty much every game, that only leaves room for one defensive midfielder (De Jong or Barry). Of course, when you assemble this much offensive talent, that's sort of what happens. With Balotelli now signed, I don't know how you can't play 4-4-2; with the money spent and his potentially volatile personality - and the presumption that he didn't leave his home country of Italy just to keep sitting on the bench - it seems like he has to get a fair number of starts, but at only 20 years old and fairly unproven I don't know how you play him as a lone striker. On the other hand, if you look at the forwards likely to be in City's final 25, it seems like it will be pretty much just three - Tevez, Adebayor, and Balotelli. You might be able to get away with only playing one at a time - start one, bring the second on for fresh legs late, start the third in the next game, or something like that. But all three seem like guys who have to be playing. Mancini asked for this problem, so hopefully he can manage it.
* It's amazing how much has changed since I started following this team. My first full season was 2005-06. Joey Barton was probably the best player on that team; the big offensive weapons brought in before the season were Darius Vassell and an aging Andrew Cole. They finished 15th in the league and fell at the first Carling Cup hurdle to Doncaster in a game I listened to live on the radio which, perversely, cemented my nascent City fandom. Since then, City are on their fourth manager and have had two major changes of ownership. I believe there's only one player in the squad who was with the '05-'06 squad - Micah Richards, and he was 17 at the time. (There is also Stephen Ireland, but he is quite clearly on the way out.)
In some respects this can make it harder to be a fan. On the other hand, would I rather follow a team that spends big and has a shot at winning trophies, or a team that barely spends at all, whose big signings are older guys pulled off the scrap heap or second- and third-tier players considered surplus to requirements at competing clubs? I certainly didn't pick City expecting them to turn into what they have, but what fan doesn't want their club to have the best chance of winning all its games? I just hope Mancini can keep harmony in the team as they reach for trophies, because I will say that the one thing that could make a winning season much less fun is constant tabloid speculation about the players. I suppose at this point that kind of comes with the territory, though.
The outfield started in a 4-5-1, with Richards, Kolo Toure, Kompany and Kolarov across the back. The crowded midfield started De Jong, Yaya Toure, Barry, Silva and Wright-Phillips, with Tevez a lone striker up top. While a strong lineup by most standards, it was clear from the outset that these guys simply had not spent much time playing together. In the first half, a sprightly Tottenham side went on blazing runs, intercepted passes, and probably should have scored at least three or four times but for some outstanding work from Hart and one save by the post. The City back four at least played well (a much more impressive showing than they delivered in the preseason, as a unit), but the stacked midfield just seemed disjointed. It didn't help when Micah Richards came flying forward, as is his wont, although David Silva seemed almost to be moving into a striking position at times as well.
The second half was an improvement. City moved the ball better and had a lot more possession, but they still gave away some big chances and really never looked seriously like scoring themselves. Things improved a bit after the introduction of Adam Johnson for Wright-Phillips with 25 minutes or so to play, and while Emmanuel Adebayor will probably not be thrilled that he was only on for the last ten minutes, he was probably more threatening in that short span than Tevez was for most of the game. (Tevez was playing as though Gonzalo Higuain were still waiting in the box. Not sure he can keep playing as a lone striker if he remains so deep.)
Not the worst start overall considering that the side clearly will need to gain cohesion as the season goes along and considering City's recent lack of success against Spurs. Still, you'd have to admit that City were fairly lucky to come away with a draw.
Stray thoughts:
* Now that it seems Joe Hart has been selected as City's #1, whither Shay Given? Will he indeed force his way out? Could Mancini possibly throw just enough starts - between a few off-days for Hart and ideally deep runs in the Europa League and the two cups - Given's way to keep him happy? Is he sold or loaned out? Does he go to Arsenal? Could City possibly justify letting a viable #1 keeper go to a theoretical rival for top-four places?
* Will Mancini stay in a 4-5-1? Especially if Tevez isn't going to be as aggressive into the box, I don't know if you can play him alone. The problem with a 4-4-2 is how overstocked that midfield is. I think Johnson should be starting, but assuming that Yaya Toure and David Silva have to start pretty much every game, that only leaves room for one defensive midfielder (De Jong or Barry). Of course, when you assemble this much offensive talent, that's sort of what happens. With Balotelli now signed, I don't know how you can't play 4-4-2; with the money spent and his potentially volatile personality - and the presumption that he didn't leave his home country of Italy just to keep sitting on the bench - it seems like he has to get a fair number of starts, but at only 20 years old and fairly unproven I don't know how you play him as a lone striker. On the other hand, if you look at the forwards likely to be in City's final 25, it seems like it will be pretty much just three - Tevez, Adebayor, and Balotelli. You might be able to get away with only playing one at a time - start one, bring the second on for fresh legs late, start the third in the next game, or something like that. But all three seem like guys who have to be playing. Mancini asked for this problem, so hopefully he can manage it.
* It's amazing how much has changed since I started following this team. My first full season was 2005-06. Joey Barton was probably the best player on that team; the big offensive weapons brought in before the season were Darius Vassell and an aging Andrew Cole. They finished 15th in the league and fell at the first Carling Cup hurdle to Doncaster in a game I listened to live on the radio which, perversely, cemented my nascent City fandom. Since then, City are on their fourth manager and have had two major changes of ownership. I believe there's only one player in the squad who was with the '05-'06 squad - Micah Richards, and he was 17 at the time. (There is also Stephen Ireland, but he is quite clearly on the way out.)
In some respects this can make it harder to be a fan. On the other hand, would I rather follow a team that spends big and has a shot at winning trophies, or a team that barely spends at all, whose big signings are older guys pulled off the scrap heap or second- and third-tier players considered surplus to requirements at competing clubs? I certainly didn't pick City expecting them to turn into what they have, but what fan doesn't want their club to have the best chance of winning all its games? I just hope Mancini can keep harmony in the team as they reach for trophies, because I will say that the one thing that could make a winning season much less fun is constant tabloid speculation about the players. I suppose at this point that kind of comes with the territory, though.
Monday, July 05, 2010
Semifinal predictions
7/6/10, 1:30 pm CT: Netherlands vs. Uruguay
The Netherlands have to be heavy favorites here. Uruguay, for my money, have defeated what were probably the worst teams available to play in each round; only Slovakia could give South Korea a run for worst Round of 16 qualifier and Paraguay - who had a much more impressive defense - are the only team that fall into Ghana's category in the quarters, with the remainder of the bunch (bar Uruguay) being top ten sides. At the same time, I'm still not convinced we know just how good the Dutch are; even in beating Brazil, they looked mediocre in the first half and their second half surge came via some slack Brazilian defending and then an utter mental collapse on the part of the Brazilians. But the Dutch are clearly better than Uruguay, especially since Uruguay - the only South American side still standing; who would have thought? - will be without attacking threat Luis Suarez due to his red card against Ghana.
Prediction: Netherlands 2, Uruguay 1
7/7/10, 1:30 pm CT: Germany vs. Spain
We all thought Germany/Argentina would be the game of the tournament, and it was a rout. This game shows promise to take the mantle, but I'm a bit worried for Spain here. They haven't been a high-flying offense in the tournament - blanked by Switzerland, two goals each against Honduras and Chile, a goal each against Portugal and Paraguay - and while that may be due in part to the defense of their opponents, how convincing can you be winning your games 1-0 and 1-0 while Germany have won 4-1 and 4-0? We know Germany can be shut down by the right defense - Serbia blanked them - but is Spain that defense? The Germans are confident, they have pace, they won't be intimidated by Spanish possession. Spain have to score more than one goal this time out, or it's into the third-place game for them, and we get our rematch of the 1974 final. I want Spain to win, but my head is finding it hard to pick them right now.
Prediction: Germany 3, Spain 1
The Netherlands have to be heavy favorites here. Uruguay, for my money, have defeated what were probably the worst teams available to play in each round; only Slovakia could give South Korea a run for worst Round of 16 qualifier and Paraguay - who had a much more impressive defense - are the only team that fall into Ghana's category in the quarters, with the remainder of the bunch (bar Uruguay) being top ten sides. At the same time, I'm still not convinced we know just how good the Dutch are; even in beating Brazil, they looked mediocre in the first half and their second half surge came via some slack Brazilian defending and then an utter mental collapse on the part of the Brazilians. But the Dutch are clearly better than Uruguay, especially since Uruguay - the only South American side still standing; who would have thought? - will be without attacking threat Luis Suarez due to his red card against Ghana.
Prediction: Netherlands 2, Uruguay 1
7/7/10, 1:30 pm CT: Germany vs. Spain
We all thought Germany/Argentina would be the game of the tournament, and it was a rout. This game shows promise to take the mantle, but I'm a bit worried for Spain here. They haven't been a high-flying offense in the tournament - blanked by Switzerland, two goals each against Honduras and Chile, a goal each against Portugal and Paraguay - and while that may be due in part to the defense of their opponents, how convincing can you be winning your games 1-0 and 1-0 while Germany have won 4-1 and 4-0? We know Germany can be shut down by the right defense - Serbia blanked them - but is Spain that defense? The Germans are confident, they have pace, they won't be intimidated by Spanish possession. Spain have to score more than one goal this time out, or it's into the third-place game for them, and we get our rematch of the 1974 final. I want Spain to win, but my head is finding it hard to pick them right now.
Prediction: Germany 3, Spain 1
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Quarterfinal recap
Uruguay 1-1 Ghana (Uruguay 4-2 pens)
Oh, the controversy in the wake of this one. Ghana took a 1-0 lead just before halftime via a Sulley Muntari blast from distance that caught Fernando Muslera napping in the Uruguay goal; Diego Forlan tied things up in the 55th with a perfect free kick. And then the game went on... and on... and on... and finally, things seemed to be going Ghana's way late. They were chasing a goal, and they were pushing into the Uruguayan box, and the ball was headed over the line... and Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez, who amazingly was back defending the goal line, reached up and swatted the ball away with his hands. It was, of course, a red card and a penalty kick... but Asamoah Gyan, the hero of the US game and a man who had already scored twice from the penalty spot during the World Cup with the winning goal against Serbia and the tying goal against Australia - both penalties the result of handballs in the box as well, and one on the line though not as definitely deliberate as Suarez's, missed the kick. Gyan stepped up and had Muslera, diving to his left, fooled; at least two-thirds of the goal gaped for Gyan to virtually tap home. And instead, he blasted it off the crossbar. We were headed for a shootout.
There is, of course, nothing quite as poetically unfair as the penalty shootout in soccer. You don't need to be the best team on the day - if you can manage to get it to a shootout, you basically have as good a chance to win as the other team does. In 2005, Man City lost in a shootout to Doncaster Rovers, then in League One (the third division of English football), when Doncaster's backup goalie got insanely hot out of nowhere and stopped every penalty City took, even though they had by no means been the better team on the day. Whether Uruguay had played better than Ghana is arguable; the Ghanaians certainly had more shots, although Uruguay had more corner kicks (suggesting better shot quality and/or more attacking pressure), and the possession was fairly even. And to say that the team that is better at shooting penalties deserves to win isn't really the way to go, in my opinion. But with that said, Uruguay were unquestionably better at shooting penalties. Gyan stepped up for Ghan and slotted home, placing the ball in an unsaveable location in the top right corner, presumably what he had been hoping to do in the first place. Steven Appiah, second up for Ghana, also converted. But John Mensah went third and took one of the worst penalty attempts you will ever see. Muslera saved it; I suspect I could have saved it. It was awful. Uruguay missed their fourth kick, Maxi Pereira hitting the ball into about the 20th row, but Dominic Adiyiah - who had been denied the winning goal by Suarez's handball - hit a shot that was little better than Mensah's, and Muslera saved that too. Uruguay made their next kick (a vicious little chip from Sebastian Abreu) and that was that.
The topic of debate then centered on Suarez's handball. He was decried as a cheat; people screamed about how Ghana were robbed of a rightful win by his actions. This was, of course, true in some ways. But it's been my position that to call Suarez a cheat completely overlooks the fact that everything that happened was in complete accordance with the rules of the game. According to the rules of the game, an intentional handball in the box means a red card for the offender and a penalty kick to the aggrieved team. If you assume that Suarez was thinking at all - personally, I think it was simply an instinctive reaction that probably didn't spend much time in his brain at all - presumably he was thinking that by stopping the ball, he was momentarily preserving his team's chances. By forcing Ghana to make a penalty kick instead, he was at least leaving the door open; by simply stepping aside because he could not reach the ball with a legal part of his body, he was dooming his team to defeat.
This, it is claimed, is cheating. But I don't really agree. It is, it seems to me, gamesmanship. What Suarez did was completely within the rules - in the sense that, yes, he made an illegal play, but he was also thoroughly punished for it in the way the rules of the game prescribe. He was ejected; Ghana were given a free shot at the goal. As it happens, Asamoah Gyan completely blew the kick. If Gyan makes it, are we talking about Suarez? Doubtful. Would we be talking about this if Suarez had brought Adiyiah down from behind on a breakaway? No; he'd probably be praised for denying the sure goal and forcing Ghana to make the spot kick. The only real difference here is that we can all say with certainty that if Suarez isn't standing there, the ball goes in. But, again, what happened fell within the rules, and Ghana blew it. Should the rules be changed? Maybe, although I think that that's an overreaction to a single episode in the first place and gives the referee a dangerous amount of subjective power to award "clear goals" in the second. Ultimately, Ghana really have no one to blame for their exit but themselves; while penalty kicks are by no means gimmes, they had two-thirds of a gaping net from twelve yards to win the game and couldn't hit it.
Netherlands 2-1 Brazil
A pretty shocking result, all told. I only saw part of this game, and it was in the first half with Brazil up 1-0 and looking more or less in control. Things unraveled in the second, with severe miscommunication between defender Felipe Melo and keeper Julio Cesar leading to a rather hopeful Wesley Sneijder ball finding its way into the back of the net to equalize, and Sneijder knocking in a header on which the Brazilian defenders seemed completely unprepared and Cesar barely moved. Melo compounded his woes by getting sent off for stamping on Arjen Robben, and the Brazilians completely fell apart. Suddenly the Dutch must be favorites to get to the finals... where a 1974 revenge match could await them.
Germany 4-0 Argentina
I'm honestly not sure whether this result is more or less shocking than the Netherlands winning, though ultimately I would say less because Germany so dominated the entire game that it would have been incredible if they hadn't won. Argentina's defense finally showed its true colors; facing a quick offense packed with clinical finishers, the back line had no chance. Germany's own defense, which some had questioned, certainly showed up; while Argentina had more shots on goal than the Germans, not one of the seven gave Manuel Neuer any real trouble - the Argentinians didn't have a single shot from inside the German six-yard box, while three of the four German goals were inside the six-yard box and the fourth only about two yards beyond. Messi and Tevez, whose pace had so devastated the other teams they'd faced, were largely non-factors in this game. After seeing this result, one begins to wonder how the Germans can be stopped.
Spain 1-0 Paraguay
As weird a game as you're going to see. Spain, typically, dominated possession but had a hard time cracking Paraguay's defense. Paraguay, less typically, had some good chances to score and perhaps should have in the first half, an effort called back for what seemed to be a fairly dodgy offsides. In the second half, Paraguay earned a penalty, which Iker Casillas saved; almost immediately, Spain earned a penalty at the other end. Xabi Alonso scored, but it was called back for encroachment (which probably should have happened on the Paraguayan PK, necessitating a retake as well); on the second attempt, Alonso's kick - a much poorer attempt than his first - was saved by Justo Villar (who then may have gotten away with a penalty-worthy takedown of Cesc Fabregas as the two went for the rebound). And then when Spain finally scored, in the 83rd minute, it was only after Pedro hit the post; David Villa's rebound bounced off both posts before finally deciding to settle into the net. Ultimately you have to say the better team won, but Paraguay were certainly game. Perhaps they all had Larissa Riquelme in mind.
Oh, the controversy in the wake of this one. Ghana took a 1-0 lead just before halftime via a Sulley Muntari blast from distance that caught Fernando Muslera napping in the Uruguay goal; Diego Forlan tied things up in the 55th with a perfect free kick. And then the game went on... and on... and on... and finally, things seemed to be going Ghana's way late. They were chasing a goal, and they were pushing into the Uruguayan box, and the ball was headed over the line... and Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez, who amazingly was back defending the goal line, reached up and swatted the ball away with his hands. It was, of course, a red card and a penalty kick... but Asamoah Gyan, the hero of the US game and a man who had already scored twice from the penalty spot during the World Cup with the winning goal against Serbia and the tying goal against Australia - both penalties the result of handballs in the box as well, and one on the line though not as definitely deliberate as Suarez's, missed the kick. Gyan stepped up and had Muslera, diving to his left, fooled; at least two-thirds of the goal gaped for Gyan to virtually tap home. And instead, he blasted it off the crossbar. We were headed for a shootout.
There is, of course, nothing quite as poetically unfair as the penalty shootout in soccer. You don't need to be the best team on the day - if you can manage to get it to a shootout, you basically have as good a chance to win as the other team does. In 2005, Man City lost in a shootout to Doncaster Rovers, then in League One (the third division of English football), when Doncaster's backup goalie got insanely hot out of nowhere and stopped every penalty City took, even though they had by no means been the better team on the day. Whether Uruguay had played better than Ghana is arguable; the Ghanaians certainly had more shots, although Uruguay had more corner kicks (suggesting better shot quality and/or more attacking pressure), and the possession was fairly even. And to say that the team that is better at shooting penalties deserves to win isn't really the way to go, in my opinion. But with that said, Uruguay were unquestionably better at shooting penalties. Gyan stepped up for Ghan and slotted home, placing the ball in an unsaveable location in the top right corner, presumably what he had been hoping to do in the first place. Steven Appiah, second up for Ghana, also converted. But John Mensah went third and took one of the worst penalty attempts you will ever see. Muslera saved it; I suspect I could have saved it. It was awful. Uruguay missed their fourth kick, Maxi Pereira hitting the ball into about the 20th row, but Dominic Adiyiah - who had been denied the winning goal by Suarez's handball - hit a shot that was little better than Mensah's, and Muslera saved that too. Uruguay made their next kick (a vicious little chip from Sebastian Abreu) and that was that.
The topic of debate then centered on Suarez's handball. He was decried as a cheat; people screamed about how Ghana were robbed of a rightful win by his actions. This was, of course, true in some ways. But it's been my position that to call Suarez a cheat completely overlooks the fact that everything that happened was in complete accordance with the rules of the game. According to the rules of the game, an intentional handball in the box means a red card for the offender and a penalty kick to the aggrieved team. If you assume that Suarez was thinking at all - personally, I think it was simply an instinctive reaction that probably didn't spend much time in his brain at all - presumably he was thinking that by stopping the ball, he was momentarily preserving his team's chances. By forcing Ghana to make a penalty kick instead, he was at least leaving the door open; by simply stepping aside because he could not reach the ball with a legal part of his body, he was dooming his team to defeat.
This, it is claimed, is cheating. But I don't really agree. It is, it seems to me, gamesmanship. What Suarez did was completely within the rules - in the sense that, yes, he made an illegal play, but he was also thoroughly punished for it in the way the rules of the game prescribe. He was ejected; Ghana were given a free shot at the goal. As it happens, Asamoah Gyan completely blew the kick. If Gyan makes it, are we talking about Suarez? Doubtful. Would we be talking about this if Suarez had brought Adiyiah down from behind on a breakaway? No; he'd probably be praised for denying the sure goal and forcing Ghana to make the spot kick. The only real difference here is that we can all say with certainty that if Suarez isn't standing there, the ball goes in. But, again, what happened fell within the rules, and Ghana blew it. Should the rules be changed? Maybe, although I think that that's an overreaction to a single episode in the first place and gives the referee a dangerous amount of subjective power to award "clear goals" in the second. Ultimately, Ghana really have no one to blame for their exit but themselves; while penalty kicks are by no means gimmes, they had two-thirds of a gaping net from twelve yards to win the game and couldn't hit it.
Netherlands 2-1 Brazil
A pretty shocking result, all told. I only saw part of this game, and it was in the first half with Brazil up 1-0 and looking more or less in control. Things unraveled in the second, with severe miscommunication between defender Felipe Melo and keeper Julio Cesar leading to a rather hopeful Wesley Sneijder ball finding its way into the back of the net to equalize, and Sneijder knocking in a header on which the Brazilian defenders seemed completely unprepared and Cesar barely moved. Melo compounded his woes by getting sent off for stamping on Arjen Robben, and the Brazilians completely fell apart. Suddenly the Dutch must be favorites to get to the finals... where a 1974 revenge match could await them.
Germany 4-0 Argentina
I'm honestly not sure whether this result is more or less shocking than the Netherlands winning, though ultimately I would say less because Germany so dominated the entire game that it would have been incredible if they hadn't won. Argentina's defense finally showed its true colors; facing a quick offense packed with clinical finishers, the back line had no chance. Germany's own defense, which some had questioned, certainly showed up; while Argentina had more shots on goal than the Germans, not one of the seven gave Manuel Neuer any real trouble - the Argentinians didn't have a single shot from inside the German six-yard box, while three of the four German goals were inside the six-yard box and the fourth only about two yards beyond. Messi and Tevez, whose pace had so devastated the other teams they'd faced, were largely non-factors in this game. After seeing this result, one begins to wonder how the Germans can be stopped.
Spain 1-0 Paraguay
As weird a game as you're going to see. Spain, typically, dominated possession but had a hard time cracking Paraguay's defense. Paraguay, less typically, had some good chances to score and perhaps should have in the first half, an effort called back for what seemed to be a fairly dodgy offsides. In the second half, Paraguay earned a penalty, which Iker Casillas saved; almost immediately, Spain earned a penalty at the other end. Xabi Alonso scored, but it was called back for encroachment (which probably should have happened on the Paraguayan PK, necessitating a retake as well); on the second attempt, Alonso's kick - a much poorer attempt than his first - was saved by Justo Villar (who then may have gotten away with a penalty-worthy takedown of Cesc Fabregas as the two went for the rebound). And then when Spain finally scored, in the 83rd minute, it was only after Pedro hit the post; David Villa's rebound bounced off both posts before finally deciding to settle into the net. Ultimately you have to say the better team won, but Paraguay were certainly game. Perhaps they all had Larissa Riquelme in mind.
Thursday, July 01, 2010
World Cup 2010: Quarterfinal Predictions
I didn't talk about any of the Round of 16 games aside from the US loss, but I didn't really have much to say, in large part because the only other one I saw was Uruguay/South Korea and that one finished exactly as I predicted. (As did Argentina/Mexico, for that matter.) Let's jump to the quarterfinal predictions; I'll get to watch at least two and a half of these games, including all of what's likely to be the best one, Germany/Argentina on Saturday.
7/2/10, 9 am CT: Netherlands vs. Brazil
This match seems likely to me to go one of two ways. It will be either (a) a classic match that could go either way or (b) a Brazilian blowout. The Netherlands, while they've looked good, have yet to be tested, particularly at the back. Their group was not amazing from an offensive standpoint and they drew probably the worst team to make the knockouts, Slovakia, in the round of 16. So while the Dutch have pretty much had their way so far, I don't know of anyone who would suggest they've totally hit their stride. Brazil, meanwhile, seem to be firing on all cylinders. While they did settle for a lousy 0-0 draw with Portugal, they handle a chippy Ivory Coast team and then romped past a Chile team that most people seemed to think had at least a puncher's chance of springing the upset. (Which just goes to show that not many people really pay attention to World Cup qualifying. Chile had no chance.) The Dutch may be shakier at the back than we realize, and if so, count on Brazil to exploit that. I'm hopeful that this is a free-flowing, high-scoring game after the complaints that scoring has been too low so far; the last time these two teams met in the World Cup was the '98 semis, with Brazil winning on penalties after full time ended at 1-1, but the time before that, in the 1994 quarters, saw a five-goal second half with the Brazilians prevailing 3-2 on the way to the title. Of course, these teams are not those teams, but a 3-2 scoreline hardly seems out of the realm of possibility. Honestly, though, the only hope the Dutch have is not to have to score with Brazil. If the final is 3-2 I have a hard time picturing them on the right side of it. I'd like to see the Dutch win here - while Brazil plays attractive football I just can't root for them to get closer to yet another title - but I don't think I'll believe they have it in them until I actually see them do it.
Prediction: Brazil 3, Netherlands 1
7/2/10, 1:30 pm CT: Uruguay vs. Ghana
Hard to care about this game. In the abstract, I think it would be great if an African team advanced to the semifinals at the African World Cup. In reality, since that team is Ghana, I can't root for them - not so much because they beat the US as because of the embarrassing way they played out, or rather tried their best to avoid actually playing out, the last half of extra time. Screw 'em. Fortunately I'd be rather surprised if they did win here; Uruguay have been playing well, and while they, like Ghana, seemed to take their foot off the gas in their round of 16 game with a 1-0 lead, they turned it back on much more quickly after South Korea equalized than Ghana did after Donovan's penalty. Uruguay also seems like they'd be much more able to create a goal out of nothing, which may be needed to win a game that promises to be the most defensive of the four in this set.
Prediction: Uruguay 1, Ghana 0
7/3/10, 9 am CT: Argentina vs. Germany
If this game lives up to the hype, it could be the game of the tournament, although I think going into it expecting a 4-3 final or something would be a mistake. Given the bad blood brewing between the two camps, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be a more physical affair and to go to extra time at 1-1 or maybe 2-2. Neither team looks totally solid at the back, but I feel like I would give the Germans better odds of buckling down, though Argentina also has the more potent attack. I predict Messi still will not score - the Germans will key on him - but that Argentina will sneak out a contentious match anyway.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Germany 2
7/3/10, 1:30 pm CT: Spain vs. Paraguay
While Spain have not always been on top of their game, this looks on paper like the biggest walkover of the bunch, and if Spain can play at top level, there's no way they don't win this game going away. It doesn't hurt that Spain have only conceded two goals at the tournament and Paraguay have not had the easiest time scoring. Spain will make their first ever semifinal* and, if nothing else, will be sure to deny CONMEBOL a clean sweep of the semis.
Prediction: Spain 2, Paraguay 0
*Spain finished fourth place in 1950, but there were no knockout stages that year; the four group stage winners played a round robin for the title, with Uruguay winning the title on points following their defeat of heavily-favored Brazil on the last match day.
7/2/10, 9 am CT: Netherlands vs. Brazil
This match seems likely to me to go one of two ways. It will be either (a) a classic match that could go either way or (b) a Brazilian blowout. The Netherlands, while they've looked good, have yet to be tested, particularly at the back. Their group was not amazing from an offensive standpoint and they drew probably the worst team to make the knockouts, Slovakia, in the round of 16. So while the Dutch have pretty much had their way so far, I don't know of anyone who would suggest they've totally hit their stride. Brazil, meanwhile, seem to be firing on all cylinders. While they did settle for a lousy 0-0 draw with Portugal, they handle a chippy Ivory Coast team and then romped past a Chile team that most people seemed to think had at least a puncher's chance of springing the upset. (Which just goes to show that not many people really pay attention to World Cup qualifying. Chile had no chance.) The Dutch may be shakier at the back than we realize, and if so, count on Brazil to exploit that. I'm hopeful that this is a free-flowing, high-scoring game after the complaints that scoring has been too low so far; the last time these two teams met in the World Cup was the '98 semis, with Brazil winning on penalties after full time ended at 1-1, but the time before that, in the 1994 quarters, saw a five-goal second half with the Brazilians prevailing 3-2 on the way to the title. Of course, these teams are not those teams, but a 3-2 scoreline hardly seems out of the realm of possibility. Honestly, though, the only hope the Dutch have is not to have to score with Brazil. If the final is 3-2 I have a hard time picturing them on the right side of it. I'd like to see the Dutch win here - while Brazil plays attractive football I just can't root for them to get closer to yet another title - but I don't think I'll believe they have it in them until I actually see them do it.
Prediction: Brazil 3, Netherlands 1
7/2/10, 1:30 pm CT: Uruguay vs. Ghana
Hard to care about this game. In the abstract, I think it would be great if an African team advanced to the semifinals at the African World Cup. In reality, since that team is Ghana, I can't root for them - not so much because they beat the US as because of the embarrassing way they played out, or rather tried their best to avoid actually playing out, the last half of extra time. Screw 'em. Fortunately I'd be rather surprised if they did win here; Uruguay have been playing well, and while they, like Ghana, seemed to take their foot off the gas in their round of 16 game with a 1-0 lead, they turned it back on much more quickly after South Korea equalized than Ghana did after Donovan's penalty. Uruguay also seems like they'd be much more able to create a goal out of nothing, which may be needed to win a game that promises to be the most defensive of the four in this set.
Prediction: Uruguay 1, Ghana 0
7/3/10, 9 am CT: Argentina vs. Germany
If this game lives up to the hype, it could be the game of the tournament, although I think going into it expecting a 4-3 final or something would be a mistake. Given the bad blood brewing between the two camps, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be a more physical affair and to go to extra time at 1-1 or maybe 2-2. Neither team looks totally solid at the back, but I feel like I would give the Germans better odds of buckling down, though Argentina also has the more potent attack. I predict Messi still will not score - the Germans will key on him - but that Argentina will sneak out a contentious match anyway.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Germany 2
7/3/10, 1:30 pm CT: Spain vs. Paraguay
While Spain have not always been on top of their game, this looks on paper like the biggest walkover of the bunch, and if Spain can play at top level, there's no way they don't win this game going away. It doesn't hurt that Spain have only conceded two goals at the tournament and Paraguay have not had the easiest time scoring. Spain will make their first ever semifinal* and, if nothing else, will be sure to deny CONMEBOL a clean sweep of the semis.
Prediction: Spain 2, Paraguay 0
*Spain finished fourth place in 1950, but there were no knockout stages that year; the four group stage winners played a round robin for the title, with Uruguay winning the title on points following their defeat of heavily-favored Brazil on the last match day.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Deja vu all over a-Ghana
Ghana 2-1 USA (a.e.t.)
What, really, can you say? The US were burned by everything that plagued them in this tournament: tendency to give up the early goal; inability to finish good chances; shaky back line; tendency to allow the other team to control midfield possession. Ghana - in spite of their shameful diving and time-wasting in the second half of extra time, as if they lacked confidence in their ability to see the game out honestly - outhustled, outmuscled, and outplayed the US, barring about a 15-minute stretch between halftime and Donovan's penalty equalizer.
So who or what is to blame?
1) The letdown
After John Isner won his marathon three-day match by taking the fifth set 70-68, he promptly exited the tournament, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the next round. This wasn't surprising, of course. Similarly, it's not totally surprising that the US couldn't pull this one out - first of all, there are only so many times you can go down and be forced to chase the game relentlessly, but the team were also coming off what must have been an exhausting (both emotionally and physically) game with Algeria just to make the knockouts. Ghana only had two days' rest too, but they barely showed up for their game with Germany, knowing that they didn't have to play their hardest to advance. For all the talk of how the Americans would benefit from their superior fitness, they simply looked spent by the middle of extra time. At some point you just can't chase a game any more. I don't know that I would have liked them from the spot even had they avoided conceding Gyan's goal; they had nothing behind their kicks in the second extra session.
2) The lineup
Facing a lineup that worked - Altidore and Dempsey up high, Feilhaber and Edu in the middle with Donovan and Bradley - coach Bob Bradley rather oddly decided to start Ricardo Clark and Robbie Findley in spite of the fact that neither had done anything in the tournament so far. Clark's error contributed to Ghana's opening goal, and after picking up a yellow card as well he was subbed off after 30 minutes for Edu. Findley had one good shot at goal and delivered a ball straight into the keeper's lap, then was gone for Feilhaber at halftime. Dempsey moved back up top and subsequently drew the tying penalty shot. Credit to Bradley for knowing when he was wrong... but why did he choose to go that way in the first place? My assumption is that he figured Clark and Findley would be fresh legs and someone had to be fresh after the Algeria game. But Clark and Findley couldn't pull their weight earlier in the tournament. Suddenly throwing them back into a must-win game never made sense.
3) The back line
While he did make some good plays, Jay DeMerit struggled once more on both of Ghana's goals. I have no idea what his health status is, but you can tell the team really missed Oguchi Onyewu, whose big, physical presence might have been better equipped to go shoulder to shoulder with Asamoah Gyan, who simply outmuscled Carlos Bocanegra for the extra time winner.
4) The midfield
Ghana mostly seemed to do what they wanted, when they wanted. As I noted above, they were the better team for all but about 15 minutes, and this started in the midfield, where the Ghanaians closed fast on the US and didn't allow much space. The US, by comparison, gave Ghana loads of room to run, as if scared to get passed in a foot race. The American inability to pass crisply also came back to haunt them. Michael Bradley alone had at least three soft giveaways, and he actually played fairly well. Ghana were also much better at keeping their shape as a side; there was always someone out wide for Ghana, sometimes coming into surprise view of the camera at the near side because the US had themselves been so packed into the middle.
5) The lack of a killer offensive threat
Donovan and Dempsey are both very good players, but neither is really a striker by trade. Altidore had a decent Cup, I thought, but you have to say: he should probably be scoring goals. Right? Findley's inability to finish was embarrassing and as far as I'm concerned he should never play for this team again, at least until he's more seasoned in international play - I mean, the guy doesn't even have ten caps. Brian Ching isn't exactly Carlos Tevez and I know he's older, but why wasn't he on the squad? Bottom line, the US need to figure out a way to manufacture a great striker. Maybe a fully fit Altidore matures into that role, but he wasn't ready for it yet. Maybe when Charlie Davies returns, he's that guy. You have to say he was probably missed given the general struggles of the US to put the ball in the back of net from the striker position.
All in all, a devastating disappointment for American soccer after Wednesday's high. Where do we go from here? CONCACAF qualifying doesn't even start until 2012, and the key matches likely won't be played until 2013. There's another Gold Cup next year, but the US didn't even take the last one seriously, sending a third-string team to get obliterated by Mexico in the final. (Although I guess you'd have to be fair and note that the US A-team had been in the Confederations Cup just a few weeks earlier and clearly wasn't going to play both.) The MLS might get a little boost out of this. I don't know.
What I do know is we've got a long way to go. And in the next four years, it's time to find some better defenders, it's time to work on not conceding early, and it's time to show the rest of the world that we have the talent to compete with its best. American soccer seems to surge forward by the year; it's time to really take that next step. The country has shown it will be ready to respond.
What, really, can you say? The US were burned by everything that plagued them in this tournament: tendency to give up the early goal; inability to finish good chances; shaky back line; tendency to allow the other team to control midfield possession. Ghana - in spite of their shameful diving and time-wasting in the second half of extra time, as if they lacked confidence in their ability to see the game out honestly - outhustled, outmuscled, and outplayed the US, barring about a 15-minute stretch between halftime and Donovan's penalty equalizer.
So who or what is to blame?
1) The letdown
After John Isner won his marathon three-day match by taking the fifth set 70-68, he promptly exited the tournament, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the next round. This wasn't surprising, of course. Similarly, it's not totally surprising that the US couldn't pull this one out - first of all, there are only so many times you can go down and be forced to chase the game relentlessly, but the team were also coming off what must have been an exhausting (both emotionally and physically) game with Algeria just to make the knockouts. Ghana only had two days' rest too, but they barely showed up for their game with Germany, knowing that they didn't have to play their hardest to advance. For all the talk of how the Americans would benefit from their superior fitness, they simply looked spent by the middle of extra time. At some point you just can't chase a game any more. I don't know that I would have liked them from the spot even had they avoided conceding Gyan's goal; they had nothing behind their kicks in the second extra session.
2) The lineup
Facing a lineup that worked - Altidore and Dempsey up high, Feilhaber and Edu in the middle with Donovan and Bradley - coach Bob Bradley rather oddly decided to start Ricardo Clark and Robbie Findley in spite of the fact that neither had done anything in the tournament so far. Clark's error contributed to Ghana's opening goal, and after picking up a yellow card as well he was subbed off after 30 minutes for Edu. Findley had one good shot at goal and delivered a ball straight into the keeper's lap, then was gone for Feilhaber at halftime. Dempsey moved back up top and subsequently drew the tying penalty shot. Credit to Bradley for knowing when he was wrong... but why did he choose to go that way in the first place? My assumption is that he figured Clark and Findley would be fresh legs and someone had to be fresh after the Algeria game. But Clark and Findley couldn't pull their weight earlier in the tournament. Suddenly throwing them back into a must-win game never made sense.
3) The back line
While he did make some good plays, Jay DeMerit struggled once more on both of Ghana's goals. I have no idea what his health status is, but you can tell the team really missed Oguchi Onyewu, whose big, physical presence might have been better equipped to go shoulder to shoulder with Asamoah Gyan, who simply outmuscled Carlos Bocanegra for the extra time winner.
4) The midfield
Ghana mostly seemed to do what they wanted, when they wanted. As I noted above, they were the better team for all but about 15 minutes, and this started in the midfield, where the Ghanaians closed fast on the US and didn't allow much space. The US, by comparison, gave Ghana loads of room to run, as if scared to get passed in a foot race. The American inability to pass crisply also came back to haunt them. Michael Bradley alone had at least three soft giveaways, and he actually played fairly well. Ghana were also much better at keeping their shape as a side; there was always someone out wide for Ghana, sometimes coming into surprise view of the camera at the near side because the US had themselves been so packed into the middle.
5) The lack of a killer offensive threat
Donovan and Dempsey are both very good players, but neither is really a striker by trade. Altidore had a decent Cup, I thought, but you have to say: he should probably be scoring goals. Right? Findley's inability to finish was embarrassing and as far as I'm concerned he should never play for this team again, at least until he's more seasoned in international play - I mean, the guy doesn't even have ten caps. Brian Ching isn't exactly Carlos Tevez and I know he's older, but why wasn't he on the squad? Bottom line, the US need to figure out a way to manufacture a great striker. Maybe a fully fit Altidore matures into that role, but he wasn't ready for it yet. Maybe when Charlie Davies returns, he's that guy. You have to say he was probably missed given the general struggles of the US to put the ball in the back of net from the striker position.
All in all, a devastating disappointment for American soccer after Wednesday's high. Where do we go from here? CONCACAF qualifying doesn't even start until 2012, and the key matches likely won't be played until 2013. There's another Gold Cup next year, but the US didn't even take the last one seriously, sending a third-string team to get obliterated by Mexico in the final. (Although I guess you'd have to be fair and note that the US A-team had been in the Confederations Cup just a few weeks earlier and clearly wasn't going to play both.) The MLS might get a little boost out of this. I don't know.
What I do know is we've got a long way to go. And in the next four years, it's time to find some better defenders, it's time to work on not conceding early, and it's time to show the rest of the world that we have the talent to compete with its best. American soccer seems to surge forward by the year; it's time to really take that next step. The country has shown it will be ready to respond.
World Cup 2010: Round of Sixteen Predictions
Saturday, 6/26/10, 9 am CDT: Uruguay vs. South Korea
There seems to be some consensus that Uruguay was one of the more impressive teams in the first round. Having not managed to catch any of their three games - one of the few teams of whom that was true - I'm not a real position to disagree, but I would note that they drew 0-0 with France and beat Mexico 1-0, both pretty tepid/standard results. Yes, they beat South Africa 3-0, but South Africa had a man sent off in that game and, their other results notwithstanding, were one of the five weakest sides in the competition. Of course, I can't say any better for South Korea, who looked outstanding in beating Greece in their first game but were subsequently thumped by Argentina and held by a Nigeria side that missed at least two sitters. Plus this tournament isn't being played in South Korea.
Prediction: Uruguay 2, South Korea 1
Saturday, 6/26/10, 1:30 pm CDT: United States vs. Ghana
As you might guess, this game terrifies me. On the one hand, I feel fairly confident that Ghana will have trouble scoring - they've got two goals in this tournament and both were on penalty kicks resulting from handballs in the box. But they're a young, physical team, and the game comes on just two days' rest for the US (for Ghana as well, of course), and - most crucially - Ghana are the sole African side left and will probably have the full force of the crowd behind them barring a few thousand American fans. It's also worth noting that the US haven't exactly had an easy time scoring, although if they ever started banging home all the chances they were ringing up against Algeria I don't know if anyone could beat them. As usual, the key will be not giving up an early goal. Just don't touch any balls in the box, people who aren't Tim Howard.
Prediction: United States 2, Ghana 0 (*gulp*)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 9:00 am CDT: England vs. Germany
Not clear which team will show up for either side. Did England put it together against Slovenia, or were they just facing a side which had expended most of its energy clawing to the top of its group? Is Germany the team that destroyed Australia or the team that limped through games with Serbia and Ghana? England had better make sure its defense is up to snuff, as Miroslav Klose is rested and no doubt ready to go. England's offense, meanwhile, may still be a bit suspect if Wayne Rooney doesn't wake up soon.
Prediction: Germany 1, England 1 (Germany 5-3 on penalties)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Argentina vs. Mexico
The Mexicans gave Argentina quite a game four years ago before falling, but I'm just not convinced this Mexican team is all that good. They barely drew 1-1 with South Africa - admittedly in front of a vocal home crowd in the tournament's first match - then coasted past an imploding France before only sort of showing up to face Uruguay. Have they really had to seriously perform yet in this tournament? Argentina hasn't been much tested, of course, and their defense can be suspect, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to score on Mexico pretty much whenever they want.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Mexico 1
Monday, 6/28/10, 9:00 am CDT: Netherlands vs. Slovakia
Slovakia's 3-2 win over Italy was a revelation, but after lackluster performances in a 1-1 draw with New Zealand and 2-0 loss to Paraguay, are they really that good or did they just catch lightning in a bottle? (Or, perhaps, are Italy just that bad?) The Dutch haven't really been tested yet, but it's a big advantage for them to have what amounts to a tune-up game to start the knockouts, rather than their battle with Portugal from 2006.
Prediction: Netherlands 3, Slovakia 0
Monday, 6/28/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Brazil vs. Chile
Based on what we've seen from Chile in the tournament, this should be good, right? Well, until you realize that Chile have actually only scored three goals and were helped greatly by games against two of the tournament's weakest offenses in Switzerland and Honduras. Also, Brazil beat Chile handily in qualifying, twice, both home and away.
Prediction: Brazil 4, Chile 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 9:00 am CDT: Paraguay vs. Japan
Paraguay looked decent in the group stage, but don't sleep on Japan after their 3-1 demolition of Denmark. Paraguay have yet to face a potent offense, and while no one would have called Japan that three days ago, their ability to strike on setpieces cannot be questioned, and they'll be tough to beat if they get a lead.
Prediction: Japan 2, Paraguay 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Spain vs. Portugal
Fitting that the marquee matchup of the round of 16 should also be its final game. Unfortunate that it falls in the middle of a workday. Portugal are a total enigma at this point; they played to a 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast, ostensibly because the two teams were feeling each other out, and then to a 0-0 draw with Brazil, ostensibly because they had no need to go for the win, and in between that they rolled up a 7-0 win, but against the worst team in the field. So can this team score goals when it's not facing North Korea? And what about Spain, which won its test against Chile but didn't always look comfortable in doing so? I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go to penalty kicks because both sides will be terrified of losing so early and will play defensively, although for the sake of fans everywhere I hope I'm wrong. Don't worry - I usually am with stuff like this.
Prediction: Spain 2, Portugal 1 (a.e.t.)
There seems to be some consensus that Uruguay was one of the more impressive teams in the first round. Having not managed to catch any of their three games - one of the few teams of whom that was true - I'm not a real position to disagree, but I would note that they drew 0-0 with France and beat Mexico 1-0, both pretty tepid/standard results. Yes, they beat South Africa 3-0, but South Africa had a man sent off in that game and, their other results notwithstanding, were one of the five weakest sides in the competition. Of course, I can't say any better for South Korea, who looked outstanding in beating Greece in their first game but were subsequently thumped by Argentina and held by a Nigeria side that missed at least two sitters. Plus this tournament isn't being played in South Korea.
Prediction: Uruguay 2, South Korea 1
Saturday, 6/26/10, 1:30 pm CDT: United States vs. Ghana
As you might guess, this game terrifies me. On the one hand, I feel fairly confident that Ghana will have trouble scoring - they've got two goals in this tournament and both were on penalty kicks resulting from handballs in the box. But they're a young, physical team, and the game comes on just two days' rest for the US (for Ghana as well, of course), and - most crucially - Ghana are the sole African side left and will probably have the full force of the crowd behind them barring a few thousand American fans. It's also worth noting that the US haven't exactly had an easy time scoring, although if they ever started banging home all the chances they were ringing up against Algeria I don't know if anyone could beat them. As usual, the key will be not giving up an early goal. Just don't touch any balls in the box, people who aren't Tim Howard.
Prediction: United States 2, Ghana 0 (*gulp*)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 9:00 am CDT: England vs. Germany
Not clear which team will show up for either side. Did England put it together against Slovenia, or were they just facing a side which had expended most of its energy clawing to the top of its group? Is Germany the team that destroyed Australia or the team that limped through games with Serbia and Ghana? England had better make sure its defense is up to snuff, as Miroslav Klose is rested and no doubt ready to go. England's offense, meanwhile, may still be a bit suspect if Wayne Rooney doesn't wake up soon.
Prediction: Germany 1, England 1 (Germany 5-3 on penalties)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Argentina vs. Mexico
The Mexicans gave Argentina quite a game four years ago before falling, but I'm just not convinced this Mexican team is all that good. They barely drew 1-1 with South Africa - admittedly in front of a vocal home crowd in the tournament's first match - then coasted past an imploding France before only sort of showing up to face Uruguay. Have they really had to seriously perform yet in this tournament? Argentina hasn't been much tested, of course, and their defense can be suspect, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to score on Mexico pretty much whenever they want.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Mexico 1
Monday, 6/28/10, 9:00 am CDT: Netherlands vs. Slovakia
Slovakia's 3-2 win over Italy was a revelation, but after lackluster performances in a 1-1 draw with New Zealand and 2-0 loss to Paraguay, are they really that good or did they just catch lightning in a bottle? (Or, perhaps, are Italy just that bad?) The Dutch haven't really been tested yet, but it's a big advantage for them to have what amounts to a tune-up game to start the knockouts, rather than their battle with Portugal from 2006.
Prediction: Netherlands 3, Slovakia 0
Monday, 6/28/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Brazil vs. Chile
Based on what we've seen from Chile in the tournament, this should be good, right? Well, until you realize that Chile have actually only scored three goals and were helped greatly by games against two of the tournament's weakest offenses in Switzerland and Honduras. Also, Brazil beat Chile handily in qualifying, twice, both home and away.
Prediction: Brazil 4, Chile 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 9:00 am CDT: Paraguay vs. Japan
Paraguay looked decent in the group stage, but don't sleep on Japan after their 3-1 demolition of Denmark. Paraguay have yet to face a potent offense, and while no one would have called Japan that three days ago, their ability to strike on setpieces cannot be questioned, and they'll be tough to beat if they get a lead.
Prediction: Japan 2, Paraguay 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Spain vs. Portugal
Fitting that the marquee matchup of the round of 16 should also be its final game. Unfortunate that it falls in the middle of a workday. Portugal are a total enigma at this point; they played to a 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast, ostensibly because the two teams were feeling each other out, and then to a 0-0 draw with Brazil, ostensibly because they had no need to go for the win, and in between that they rolled up a 7-0 win, but against the worst team in the field. So can this team score goals when it's not facing North Korea? And what about Spain, which won its test against Chile but didn't always look comfortable in doing so? I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go to penalty kicks because both sides will be terrified of losing so early and will play defensively, although for the sake of fans everywhere I hope I'm wrong. Don't worry - I usually am with stuff like this.
Prediction: Spain 2, Portugal 1 (a.e.t.)
Friday, June 25, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Fifteen
The first round concluded today, and did so in expected fashion. Let's wrap it up quick-like.
Ivory Coast 3-0 North Korea
Not a shock. Ivory Coast scored two goals in the first twenty minutes, spurring a bit of "Maybe they can actually score nine goals!" talk before things settled down. The Elephants go home despite probably being the best team in Africa, but is anyone really surprised? Their group contained Brazil and Portugal, for crying out loud.
Brazil 0-0 Portugal
Sorry to anyone who was expecting a good game, but once Portugal loaded up on goals against North Korea you should have known better. Weird but true: Portugal's three games included a 7-0 win and two scoreless draws. What can we expect out of them going forward?
Switzerland 0-0 Honduras
Whatever.
Spain 2-1 Chile
Villa's goal: remarkable. We've talked about Maicon, Quagliarella, and whoever else, but understand this: Villa hit a clearance first-time into the net from 45 yards away down the left side. It's funny, Spain losing was the huge story of the first set of games, but they ended up progressing quite comfortably, while France and Italy - world powers that drew their opening games - ended up becoming the real embarrassments of the tournament.
Ivory Coast 3-0 North Korea
Not a shock. Ivory Coast scored two goals in the first twenty minutes, spurring a bit of "Maybe they can actually score nine goals!" talk before things settled down. The Elephants go home despite probably being the best team in Africa, but is anyone really surprised? Their group contained Brazil and Portugal, for crying out loud.
Brazil 0-0 Portugal
Sorry to anyone who was expecting a good game, but once Portugal loaded up on goals against North Korea you should have known better. Weird but true: Portugal's three games included a 7-0 win and two scoreless draws. What can we expect out of them going forward?
Switzerland 0-0 Honduras
Whatever.
Spain 2-1 Chile
Villa's goal: remarkable. We've talked about Maicon, Quagliarella, and whoever else, but understand this: Villa hit a clearance first-time into the net from 45 yards away down the left side. It's funny, Spain losing was the huge story of the first set of games, but they ended up progressing quite comfortably, while France and Italy - world powers that drew their opening games - ended up becoming the real embarrassments of the tournament.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Fourteen
Paraguay 0-0 New Zealand
New Zealand's plan was pretty clearly to put the game on lockdown and try to nick a goal late, which was virtually the only way they were going through (a draw would only have helped in the event of an Italy draw, but Italy would have gone through on goals scored in that event). And it almost worked, except for the fact that New Zealand have no offense whatsoever, managing just four shots in the game and none on target. They exit the World Cup without a loss, the first team to do so since Belgium in 1998 (which was also the last year that a team managed to progress without winning a game). The Kiwis can hold their heads high; as the 78th-ranked team in the world, nothing was expected out of them, and yet they didn't lose a game and didn't finish last in their group.
Slovakia 3-2 Italy
No, that honor belonged to the Italians. The defending champs bowed out, not in as ignominious a manner as the French in 2002 - at least Italy scored a few times - but in pretty ugly fashion. The Italians had not given up three goals in a World Cup match since losing 4-1 to Brazil in the 1970 final; three goals matched their high allowed in an entire group stage since 1986. The defense was never all there for them, and while Fabio Quagliarella chipped in what would probably be the goal of the tournament so far if not for Maicon's physics-defying strike against North Korea, the offense was clearly lacking overall. All they needed was to beat New Zealand, for crying out loud. Instead, they're going home.
Netherlands 2-1 Cameroon
Whatever. This was a friendly.
Japan 3-1 Denmark
A fairly shocking result, as the Japanese had shown very little inclination to score goals prior to this point in the tournament. Keisuke Honda and Yasuhito Endo both struck from free kicks, the first time since Yugoslavia drubbed Zaire 9-0 in 1974 that one team had put in two free kick goals in the same match, and Denmark were just lost. Even the goal they grabbed back came on a penalty kick - and even then, it was on the rebound of the kick, which had been saved at first. Paraguay had better not sleep on Japan; it suddenly looks like they can make some noise.
Tomorrow! The shocking conclusion to Group G. Will Ivory Coast stay alive? (No.) Will Brazil and Portugal really care who wins their game? (Doubtful.) Will all the North Koreans defect after the game to avoid execution? (Maybe.) Plus, the legitimately interesting finish to Group H, which will most likely see Spain either go out or top the group. We're due for an awesome round of 16 match between either Brazil and Spain (top two teams in the world) or Spain and Portugal (2 and 3 teams, plus Iberian neighbors). With all due respect to Switzerland, I think I'd prefer it if they didn't deny us that.
New Zealand's plan was pretty clearly to put the game on lockdown and try to nick a goal late, which was virtually the only way they were going through (a draw would only have helped in the event of an Italy draw, but Italy would have gone through on goals scored in that event). And it almost worked, except for the fact that New Zealand have no offense whatsoever, managing just four shots in the game and none on target. They exit the World Cup without a loss, the first team to do so since Belgium in 1998 (which was also the last year that a team managed to progress without winning a game). The Kiwis can hold their heads high; as the 78th-ranked team in the world, nothing was expected out of them, and yet they didn't lose a game and didn't finish last in their group.
Slovakia 3-2 Italy
No, that honor belonged to the Italians. The defending champs bowed out, not in as ignominious a manner as the French in 2002 - at least Italy scored a few times - but in pretty ugly fashion. The Italians had not given up three goals in a World Cup match since losing 4-1 to Brazil in the 1970 final; three goals matched their high allowed in an entire group stage since 1986. The defense was never all there for them, and while Fabio Quagliarella chipped in what would probably be the goal of the tournament so far if not for Maicon's physics-defying strike against North Korea, the offense was clearly lacking overall. All they needed was to beat New Zealand, for crying out loud. Instead, they're going home.
Netherlands 2-1 Cameroon
Whatever. This was a friendly.
Japan 3-1 Denmark
A fairly shocking result, as the Japanese had shown very little inclination to score goals prior to this point in the tournament. Keisuke Honda and Yasuhito Endo both struck from free kicks, the first time since Yugoslavia drubbed Zaire 9-0 in 1974 that one team had put in two free kick goals in the same match, and Denmark were just lost. Even the goal they grabbed back came on a penalty kick - and even then, it was on the rebound of the kick, which had been saved at first. Paraguay had better not sleep on Japan; it suddenly looks like they can make some noise.
Tomorrow! The shocking conclusion to Group G. Will Ivory Coast stay alive? (No.) Will Brazil and Portugal really care who wins their game? (Doubtful.) Will all the North Koreans defect after the game to avoid execution? (Maybe.) Plus, the legitimately interesting finish to Group H, which will most likely see Spain either go out or top the group. We're due for an awesome round of 16 match between either Brazil and Spain (top two teams in the world) or Spain and Portugal (2 and 3 teams, plus Iberian neighbors). With all due respect to Switzerland, I think I'd prefer it if they didn't deny us that.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Landon Opportunity
USA 1-0 Algeria
What a game. I must confess, I came very close to turning it off at various points in the second half. The Americans couldn't buy a goal, it seemed, and as the minutes dragged on I felt worse and worse, a bundle of nerves, feeling almost physically ill. The worst part was that every five minutes or so, the tension seemed ready to erupt into joy and relief, and then it never quite happened, which only made that tension worse. Finally it came, in injury time, as Tim Howard made a save and flung the ball to a streaking Landon Donovan, who found Jozy Altidore, who crossed it to Clint Dempsey, who once again was denied by the keeper... but Donovan, running in on goal, cleaned up the rebound and then was off to the left corner flag to be mobbed.
The US topped their group for the first time since 1930 and won a game they were not leading for the first time ever at the World Cup. It's tempting to ascribe great things to the US team following this win, but I think we should probably keep in mind that Algeria didn't score a single goal at the World Cup and nearly got yet another early goal were it not for the crossbar. The defense played well overall, I thought, or at least better than they did against Slovenia, but I don't know if this is the defense of a team that can really make a run in the knockouts. If a team that doesn't score goals can create 19 shots (even if only four were on goal), what will Ghana do? What would (potentially) Diego Forlan and Uruguay do? It's easy to look at the side of the bracket the US are on and salivate - we avoided Germany, we avoided Argentina, we won't face a top ten team until the semis (when the survivor of what could be a loaded Netherlands-Italy-Brazil-Spain bracket arrives) - but we're talking about a team that barely drew Slovenia and were two minutes from leaving the tournament against one of its worst teams.
I thought the attack looked pretty good, along with the play in midfield. The US still lacks great finishing as a team (US strikers do not have a goal in this tournament and Altidore missed a gift-wrapped chance today) and they still aren't great passers. Against Algeria these things were more easily swept under the rug; I doubt that'll be the case against Ghana, much less even stronger teams that the US could run into in later stages of the competition. The defense continues to be suspect. For as exciting as this game was, you can't really look at it and say the US played a great game. They played a good game and were helped by not facing top-shelf opposition. Rafik Djebbour rattles the woodwork. Diego Forlan scores.
Am I excited to get to keep watching the US? Of course. And the Donovan goal is one of the greatest sports moments of my life. But I think we need to be measured in our response here. Even in what will probably be the easiest - or anyway least imposing - of the four quarterfinal brackets, we can take nothing for granted with this team.
England 1-0 Slovenia
Even in finally getting a victory and dragging themselves into the round of 16, it still seems like England are not all there. To make the semis they would have to go through Germany and Argentina - and while both games, if they were to happen, would make for very interesting stories, it's hard to imagine England coming close to doing that the way they've been playing.
Germany 1-0 Ghana
A perfect result because it means the US avoid Germany. Part of me was paranoid that the Germans would rather have played us than England and would leak a late goal, but it didn't happen - Ghana were probably fine facing us instead of England and weren't chasing it. I would rather not have faced a team that's going to be the Pride of Africa here in the round of 16, but given the alternative of facing Germany, it's cool.
Australia 2-1 Serbia
Both teams go out. For a little while - with Australia up 2-0 and Germany up 1-0 - it looked like what failed to happen in Group A would happen here. And then the exact same thing came to pass - Germany never really looked like getting a second, Australia gave a goal back, and that was pretty much it. The Socceroos end their World Cup with a win, and with the core of their team so old, who knows if they're going to be back in four years.
Interesting, if not massive, games tomorrow. Netherlands-Cameroon is basically a friendly, but Denmark-Japan is winner-take-all, and Group F has all to play for, with New Zealand holding out hope that they can earn a matchup with the Dutch and Italy trying to avoid being the second defending champion in three Cups to go out at the group stage.
What a game. I must confess, I came very close to turning it off at various points in the second half. The Americans couldn't buy a goal, it seemed, and as the minutes dragged on I felt worse and worse, a bundle of nerves, feeling almost physically ill. The worst part was that every five minutes or so, the tension seemed ready to erupt into joy and relief, and then it never quite happened, which only made that tension worse. Finally it came, in injury time, as Tim Howard made a save and flung the ball to a streaking Landon Donovan, who found Jozy Altidore, who crossed it to Clint Dempsey, who once again was denied by the keeper... but Donovan, running in on goal, cleaned up the rebound and then was off to the left corner flag to be mobbed.
The US topped their group for the first time since 1930 and won a game they were not leading for the first time ever at the World Cup. It's tempting to ascribe great things to the US team following this win, but I think we should probably keep in mind that Algeria didn't score a single goal at the World Cup and nearly got yet another early goal were it not for the crossbar. The defense played well overall, I thought, or at least better than they did against Slovenia, but I don't know if this is the defense of a team that can really make a run in the knockouts. If a team that doesn't score goals can create 19 shots (even if only four were on goal), what will Ghana do? What would (potentially) Diego Forlan and Uruguay do? It's easy to look at the side of the bracket the US are on and salivate - we avoided Germany, we avoided Argentina, we won't face a top ten team until the semis (when the survivor of what could be a loaded Netherlands-Italy-Brazil-Spain bracket arrives) - but we're talking about a team that barely drew Slovenia and were two minutes from leaving the tournament against one of its worst teams.
I thought the attack looked pretty good, along with the play in midfield. The US still lacks great finishing as a team (US strikers do not have a goal in this tournament and Altidore missed a gift-wrapped chance today) and they still aren't great passers. Against Algeria these things were more easily swept under the rug; I doubt that'll be the case against Ghana, much less even stronger teams that the US could run into in later stages of the competition. The defense continues to be suspect. For as exciting as this game was, you can't really look at it and say the US played a great game. They played a good game and were helped by not facing top-shelf opposition. Rafik Djebbour rattles the woodwork. Diego Forlan scores.
Am I excited to get to keep watching the US? Of course. And the Donovan goal is one of the greatest sports moments of my life. But I think we need to be measured in our response here. Even in what will probably be the easiest - or anyway least imposing - of the four quarterfinal brackets, we can take nothing for granted with this team.
England 1-0 Slovenia
Even in finally getting a victory and dragging themselves into the round of 16, it still seems like England are not all there. To make the semis they would have to go through Germany and Argentina - and while both games, if they were to happen, would make for very interesting stories, it's hard to imagine England coming close to doing that the way they've been playing.
Germany 1-0 Ghana
A perfect result because it means the US avoid Germany. Part of me was paranoid that the Germans would rather have played us than England and would leak a late goal, but it didn't happen - Ghana were probably fine facing us instead of England and weren't chasing it. I would rather not have faced a team that's going to be the Pride of Africa here in the round of 16, but given the alternative of facing Germany, it's cool.
Australia 2-1 Serbia
Both teams go out. For a little while - with Australia up 2-0 and Germany up 1-0 - it looked like what failed to happen in Group A would happen here. And then the exact same thing came to pass - Germany never really looked like getting a second, Australia gave a goal back, and that was pretty much it. The Socceroos end their World Cup with a win, and with the core of their team so old, who knows if they're going to be back in four years.
Interesting, if not massive, games tomorrow. Netherlands-Cameroon is basically a friendly, but Denmark-Japan is winner-take-all, and Group F has all to play for, with New Zealand holding out hope that they can earn a matchup with the Dutch and Italy trying to avoid being the second defending champion in three Cups to go out at the group stage.
World Cup 2010: Day Twelve
Our first advancements to the knockouts, and they went about how I expected.
Uruguay 1-0 Mexico
I don't expect much out of Mexico in the round of 16, as usual. They made it that far, but no further, in each of the last four World Cups, and for the second straight Cup they'll be facing Argentina, who I don't see them beating. 2006's matchup was reasonably entertaining - two goals in the first ten minutes, then nothing until Maxi Rodriguez's insane volley in extra time.
South Africa 2-1 France
It actually looked for a while - when it was 2-0 South Africa and 1-0 Uruguay - that the hosts might progress miraculously. Then France caught up with the game a bit and the dream was gone. However, I'm happy for South Africa that they got a win on home soil, and against a world power, albeit one in total disarray.
Argentina 2-0 Greece
Had Greece been any other team, they might have won this game. They're not.
South Korea 2-2 Nigeria
One of the more exciting games of the tournament so far. Yakubu's miss was simply astounding - as the announcers exclaimed on the radio call, it was easier to make than to miss - and with the Nigerians going home as the result of the draw, that's one that could haunt. At least he made the tying penalty shot and saved some face. South Korea went through as a result of this game and will face Uruguay; I'm inclined to say Uruguay wins that one considering how shambolic South Korea's defense looked in this game.
With South Africa and Nigeria joining Cameroon on the rubbish heap, there are three African teams left carrying the banner. Ivory Coast, while still technically alive, are basically done because of goal differential. That leaves Algeria and Ghana, who can both advance with wins tomorrow. Of course, I'm certainly going to be rooting for Algeria not to win. So really it just leaves Ghana. Let's go Black Stars! This would also be good because it potentially dumps Germany out of the tournament.
I'm not sure I've ever been as nervous for a soccer game as for US-Algeria. A loss here could set back soccer in this country 12 years.
Monday, June 21, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Eleven
Today was the final day of early morning games (6:30 Central kickoffs), and while this means that my ability to watch the rest of the tournament will be restricted to weekends and my ability to slip out of work for a couple hours if it's not that busy, I'm also kind of relieved. I could barely stay awake for Portugal-North Korea, although to be fair I had very little investment in that game and it was only exciting if you like goals and the last time you'll see eleven North Koreans alive.
Portugal 7-0 North Korea
Biggest blowout since Germany 8-0 Saudi Arabia in 2002, which I also watched live. Amazingly, this game was only 1-0 at halftime (Germany was already up 4-0 at the break), but the Koreans fell apart in the second half. Tommy Smyth on ESPN Radio speculated that the Koreans were simply not a very fit team and had expended most of the effort reserves they had in holding Brazil to a 2-1 win. Portugal got into the North Korean box pretty much whenever they wanted to in the second half, scoring all of their goals from close range. My particular favorite was Cristiano Ronaldo's goal, his first for Portugal since 2008 - he tried to flip it over the onrushing keeper, and ended up bouncing the ball off his head and neck back down to his feet, at which point he poked it into the open net. Then he just had this look on his face like, "That's how I break my streak of not scoring? Okay." It almost made me like him until I remembered he's a whiny flopper.
Chile 1-0 Switzerland
Another bad game for the refs. I want to like Chile, because I think they're an interesting team that has the potential to surprise in the knockouts, but they're such awful divers that it really just makes me hate them. Switzerland's Valon Behrami made some contact with Arturo Vidal, and Vidal made an absolute meal of it; the ref was too far away to know how BS it was and ran over with the straight red. While it's obvious that there has to be a way to maintain discipline in games, I think that the straight red card should be reserved for the roughest, most deliberate of challenges. Some guys bring it out far too easily (Tim Cahill's was one such) considering the impact it's likely to have on a game. You basically cannot win if you're down to ten men before halftime. Given that it still took Chile until the 75th minute to score, you'd have to say it would have made a difference in this game.
Spain 2-0 Honduras
Another convincing-yet-unconvincing performance from Spain, but at least they got the win this time. David Villa scored twice, one a remarkable individual performance in which he dribbled into the area from 30 yards out and fired home while falling over, but also missed a penalty kick by wrong-footing the goalie and then pushing the ball just right of the post. I feel the same way about Spain right now as I feel about the Netherlands - I believe they're good and I think they can do well, but I'd like to see a little more out of them than I have to this point. At least Spain were tested by Switzerland; the Dutch could be in for a rude awakening if they suddenly have to face Italy in the round of 16.
Speaking of which, now that we're down to the third set of games only, let's quickly go over each group. I know I did the first six yesterday. We're doing them again. I'll give my actual picks this time to sweeten the deal.
Group A: Mexico and Uruguay both swear they aren't going to play for a draw. This is good news for France, or at least it would be if they weren't fighting, so maybe it's good news for South Africa. It's unlikely that the combined margins are going to turn over the goal differential that exists, however. I say Mexico and Uruguay go through.
Group B: With only a Greece side that I really think are terrible standing in their way, I think Argentina are taking all nine points and topping the group. Assuming they romp, second place will go to the winner of South Korea/Nigeria, but Nigeria has to win by two goals to overturn the existing goal differential. In other words, go with South Korea.
Group C: I'm terrified for Wednesday, of course, but hopeful that the US can get the win they need to go through, in whatever fashion. You also get the feeling that England will suddenly show up and torch Slovenia, but then I was sure they'd beat Algeria and look how that turned out. I still say US and England make it out.
Group D: Ghana lead the group and are pretty much Africa's last, best hope. But they get Germany, which I'm thinking means they desperately need Serbia to lose. Ghana's GD is +1, but if they lose that reduces at least to zero, which is where Serbia's sits, so a draw by Serbia and a Ghana loss by more than a goal risks dumping Ghana from the tournament. On the other hand, Australia's GD is so woeful that while they can tie Ghana on points with a win and a Ghana loss, Ghana would almost certainly go through anyway on GD. My pick here is Germany and Serbia - sorry, Africa.
Group E: The Netherlands are through, so it's a winner-take-all match between Denmark and Japan. Japan go through in the event of a draw, so expect Denmark to push for a win. I'm going to go out on a slight limb here and say the Danes pull it off, but it should be a fairly exciting game, although if Japan go into a defensive shell maybe a bit less so.
Group F: Paraguay need only draw New Zealand to advance, so they seem like a fairly safe bet - while I like the Kiwis and would love to see them move on, it's pretty hard to imagine lightning striking three times. While Italy have struggled, I still think they're going to beat Slovakia and advance as well.
Group G: Brazil and Portugal are going to go through after Portugal hung that 7-spot on the North Koreans, putting fully nine goals between themselves and the Ivory Coast. While the Ivorians will probably beat North Korea, they would need to do so by five goals and hope that Brazil beat Portugal by five goals... and as unlikely as that is with both teams trying, it's even more unlikely when Brazil could very well be resting some of its stars for the knockouts.
Group H: Group C is probably the most interesting group on the final day, but this one is up there. Chile and Spain are the likely bets - but if Chile beat Spain, the Swiss can go through with a win or draw. I think Spain will beat Chile and both will advance, however.
What second round matchups are we looking at if things go down the way I expect them to?
Uruguay vs. South Korea
Mexico vs. Argentina
USA vs. Serbia
England vs. Germany
Netherlands vs. Italy
Paraguay vs. Denmark
Brazil vs. Chile
Spain vs. Portugal
Holy crap is that an exciting-looking second round. Mexico/Argentina is a rematch of a great second round game from 2006; England/Germany is a massive historical rivalry (and rematch of the 1966 final); Netherlands/Italy matches two major European powers; Spain/Portugal does the same and they're neighbors to boot; Brazil/Chile is an intriguing continental matchup (although the Brazilians won both games during qualifying somewhat handily). If things turn out like this, we are in for a pretty great knockout phase.
Portugal 7-0 North Korea
Biggest blowout since Germany 8-0 Saudi Arabia in 2002, which I also watched live. Amazingly, this game was only 1-0 at halftime (Germany was already up 4-0 at the break), but the Koreans fell apart in the second half. Tommy Smyth on ESPN Radio speculated that the Koreans were simply not a very fit team and had expended most of the effort reserves they had in holding Brazil to a 2-1 win. Portugal got into the North Korean box pretty much whenever they wanted to in the second half, scoring all of their goals from close range. My particular favorite was Cristiano Ronaldo's goal, his first for Portugal since 2008 - he tried to flip it over the onrushing keeper, and ended up bouncing the ball off his head and neck back down to his feet, at which point he poked it into the open net. Then he just had this look on his face like, "That's how I break my streak of not scoring? Okay." It almost made me like him until I remembered he's a whiny flopper.
Chile 1-0 Switzerland
Another bad game for the refs. I want to like Chile, because I think they're an interesting team that has the potential to surprise in the knockouts, but they're such awful divers that it really just makes me hate them. Switzerland's Valon Behrami made some contact with Arturo Vidal, and Vidal made an absolute meal of it; the ref was too far away to know how BS it was and ran over with the straight red. While it's obvious that there has to be a way to maintain discipline in games, I think that the straight red card should be reserved for the roughest, most deliberate of challenges. Some guys bring it out far too easily (Tim Cahill's was one such) considering the impact it's likely to have on a game. You basically cannot win if you're down to ten men before halftime. Given that it still took Chile until the 75th minute to score, you'd have to say it would have made a difference in this game.
Spain 2-0 Honduras
Another convincing-yet-unconvincing performance from Spain, but at least they got the win this time. David Villa scored twice, one a remarkable individual performance in which he dribbled into the area from 30 yards out and fired home while falling over, but also missed a penalty kick by wrong-footing the goalie and then pushing the ball just right of the post. I feel the same way about Spain right now as I feel about the Netherlands - I believe they're good and I think they can do well, but I'd like to see a little more out of them than I have to this point. At least Spain were tested by Switzerland; the Dutch could be in for a rude awakening if they suddenly have to face Italy in the round of 16.
Speaking of which, now that we're down to the third set of games only, let's quickly go over each group. I know I did the first six yesterday. We're doing them again. I'll give my actual picks this time to sweeten the deal.
Group A: Mexico and Uruguay both swear they aren't going to play for a draw. This is good news for France, or at least it would be if they weren't fighting, so maybe it's good news for South Africa. It's unlikely that the combined margins are going to turn over the goal differential that exists, however. I say Mexico and Uruguay go through.
Group B: With only a Greece side that I really think are terrible standing in their way, I think Argentina are taking all nine points and topping the group. Assuming they romp, second place will go to the winner of South Korea/Nigeria, but Nigeria has to win by two goals to overturn the existing goal differential. In other words, go with South Korea.
Group C: I'm terrified for Wednesday, of course, but hopeful that the US can get the win they need to go through, in whatever fashion. You also get the feeling that England will suddenly show up and torch Slovenia, but then I was sure they'd beat Algeria and look how that turned out. I still say US and England make it out.
Group D: Ghana lead the group and are pretty much Africa's last, best hope. But they get Germany, which I'm thinking means they desperately need Serbia to lose. Ghana's GD is +1, but if they lose that reduces at least to zero, which is where Serbia's sits, so a draw by Serbia and a Ghana loss by more than a goal risks dumping Ghana from the tournament. On the other hand, Australia's GD is so woeful that while they can tie Ghana on points with a win and a Ghana loss, Ghana would almost certainly go through anyway on GD. My pick here is Germany and Serbia - sorry, Africa.
Group E: The Netherlands are through, so it's a winner-take-all match between Denmark and Japan. Japan go through in the event of a draw, so expect Denmark to push for a win. I'm going to go out on a slight limb here and say the Danes pull it off, but it should be a fairly exciting game, although if Japan go into a defensive shell maybe a bit less so.
Group F: Paraguay need only draw New Zealand to advance, so they seem like a fairly safe bet - while I like the Kiwis and would love to see them move on, it's pretty hard to imagine lightning striking three times. While Italy have struggled, I still think they're going to beat Slovakia and advance as well.
Group G: Brazil and Portugal are going to go through after Portugal hung that 7-spot on the North Koreans, putting fully nine goals between themselves and the Ivory Coast. While the Ivorians will probably beat North Korea, they would need to do so by five goals and hope that Brazil beat Portugal by five goals... and as unlikely as that is with both teams trying, it's even more unlikely when Brazil could very well be resting some of its stars for the knockouts.
Group H: Group C is probably the most interesting group on the final day, but this one is up there. Chile and Spain are the likely bets - but if Chile beat Spain, the Swiss can go through with a win or draw. I think Spain will beat Chile and both will advance, however.
What second round matchups are we looking at if things go down the way I expect them to?
Uruguay vs. South Korea
Mexico vs. Argentina
USA vs. Serbia
England vs. Germany
Netherlands vs. Italy
Paraguay vs. Denmark
Brazil vs. Chile
Spain vs. Portugal
Holy crap is that an exciting-looking second round. Mexico/Argentina is a rematch of a great second round game from 2006; England/Germany is a massive historical rivalry (and rematch of the 1966 final); Netherlands/Italy matches two major European powers; Spain/Portugal does the same and they're neighbors to boot; Brazil/Chile is an intriguing continental matchup (although the Brazilians won both games during qualifying somewhat handily). If things turn out like this, we are in for a pretty great knockout phase.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Ten
I didn't actually watch much today, but let's talk about it anyway.
Paraguay 2-0 Slovakia
This group always looked like Italy and Paraguay, and it seems that Paraguay has advancement pretty much sewn up following their comfortable victory. After dominating large stretches of their opening game but losing the win at the death, Slovakia were thoroughly outplayed by Paraguay (in spite of their slight edge in possession), getting just one shot on goal, and that two minutes from time already down 2-0. Slovakia's defense broke down on both goals; the first saw Lucas Barrios thread a pass right between the legs of Kornel Salata to be poked home by Enrique Vera, while the second was a strike from Cristian Riveros after Slovakia allowed Paraguay to have as many attackers in the box as they had defenders. With just one point, Slovakia's World Cup isn't over yet, but it's hard to see how they can beat Italy - which they must do to advance - when they've managed just one goal in their first two games. Paraguay need only take a point from their game with New Zealand to move on, regardless of other results.
Italy 1-1 New Zealand
Possibly a bigger shock than Switzerland beating Spain. While the FIFA rankings are questionable, Italy and New Zealand are separated by 774 points, while Spain and Switzerland are only separated by 699. New Zealand didn't win, of course, but holding on for the draw while being thoroughly dominated in most aspects of the game is an impressive showing by a country that just got its first ever point last week. Italy had 72% of the possession. Italy took 15 corners to New Zealand's none. Italy took 23 shots, with five on target; New Zealand took three shots, and the only one on target found the back of the net. I should probably note that the officiating in this game was also a bit shambolic; New Zealand's goal was probably offsides, and the penalty kick on which Italy tied it came from a very soft foul call (perhaps it was intended as some sort of makeup call for missing the offsides?). Still, New Zealand have to be thrilled with this result. On the other hand, it's difficult to see how they progress; a draw with Paraguay would only be enough to advance them if Italy and Slovakia draw and Italy score fewer goals than New Zealand in doing so, which seems unlikely. As much as I'd love to see New Zealand progress, I simply can't imagine they have beating Paraguay in them. Of course, if you're New Zealand it might be a moral victory simply to leave the World Cup without a loss.
Brazil 3-1 Ivory Coast
It only gets worse for African teams. I like Sven-Goran Eriksson, but in the wake of this result his apparent decision to play Portugal for a draw from the start becomes more suspect. At this point Ivory Coast really need North Korea to get a result off Portugal, and then to beat North Korea themselves in the final group of games while Portugal fails to win against Brazil. All of these are moderately reasonable outcomes, to be fair, but Ivory Coast would be in much better shape had they been able to take Portugal in the opening game, and it just never seemed like they were really trying to. This particular game is also noteworthy because it featured Luis Fabiano scoring after handling the ball twice, which somehow the officials missed even though I could spot it at full speed and with Fabiano only an inch or two high on a computer screen. I doubt removing that goal from Brazil's books would have made much difference, but sheesh, do you really need to make things easier for Brazil?
The final round of games begins Tuesday, and I'm excited, as most groups either still have all to play for or feature a do-or-die game. Consider the following:
Group A: This one would have been a snoozer, but suddenly maybe the hosts aren't quite dead - France are clearly in shambles, so what if South Africa can capitalize and flatten them 3-0? If Uruguay defeated Mexico 2-0 at the same time, South Africa would advance. Sure, it's completely unlikely... but let's throw Africa a bone here. They don't have a lot going on.
Group B: I fully expect Argentina to wallop Greece, and assuming that happens it makes South Korea and Nigeria into an elimination game, albeit one that Nigeria would have to win by two goals to advance. Still, everyone still having a shot to move on on the last day makes for an exciting finish.
Group C: Well, obviously. All four teams can still move on. It'll be interesting to see exactly how these games play out, as I can't help but think Slovenia will be happy to play for a draw with England, while the US and Algeria will both be playing for the win.
Group D: Anyone can still move on here as well, though obviously some scenarios are likelier than others. Serbia advance with a win. Ghana advance with a win - or, if Serbia don't win, with a draw. Germany advance with a win, or probably with a draw if Serbia lose. Australia needs to win and for Ghana to win; alternately, the Aussies will be hoping to win by several goals and for Ghana to get thumped in hopes of turning around a significant five-goal differential.
Group E: The Dutch are in and Cameroon are out, but that makes Japan/Denmark a for-sure elimination game. The Japanese have a one-goal edge in GD, so one wonders if they might just play for the draw, especially since a situation that involves them having to score more than one goal is not going to be to their liking.
Group F: As discussed above, all four teams advance with a win, regardless of other results - the one exception being Slovakia, who need to win and have New Zealand not win. Paraguay and Italy still seem like the obvious call, but who knows? If both games end in draws, New Zealand could still squeak this one out without even having to win.
Groups G and H: Still a lot of scenarios. Things will likely be a little clearer after Monday.
Paraguay 2-0 Slovakia
This group always looked like Italy and Paraguay, and it seems that Paraguay has advancement pretty much sewn up following their comfortable victory. After dominating large stretches of their opening game but losing the win at the death, Slovakia were thoroughly outplayed by Paraguay (in spite of their slight edge in possession), getting just one shot on goal, and that two minutes from time already down 2-0. Slovakia's defense broke down on both goals; the first saw Lucas Barrios thread a pass right between the legs of Kornel Salata to be poked home by Enrique Vera, while the second was a strike from Cristian Riveros after Slovakia allowed Paraguay to have as many attackers in the box as they had defenders. With just one point, Slovakia's World Cup isn't over yet, but it's hard to see how they can beat Italy - which they must do to advance - when they've managed just one goal in their first two games. Paraguay need only take a point from their game with New Zealand to move on, regardless of other results.
Italy 1-1 New Zealand
Possibly a bigger shock than Switzerland beating Spain. While the FIFA rankings are questionable, Italy and New Zealand are separated by 774 points, while Spain and Switzerland are only separated by 699. New Zealand didn't win, of course, but holding on for the draw while being thoroughly dominated in most aspects of the game is an impressive showing by a country that just got its first ever point last week. Italy had 72% of the possession. Italy took 15 corners to New Zealand's none. Italy took 23 shots, with five on target; New Zealand took three shots, and the only one on target found the back of the net. I should probably note that the officiating in this game was also a bit shambolic; New Zealand's goal was probably offsides, and the penalty kick on which Italy tied it came from a very soft foul call (perhaps it was intended as some sort of makeup call for missing the offsides?). Still, New Zealand have to be thrilled with this result. On the other hand, it's difficult to see how they progress; a draw with Paraguay would only be enough to advance them if Italy and Slovakia draw and Italy score fewer goals than New Zealand in doing so, which seems unlikely. As much as I'd love to see New Zealand progress, I simply can't imagine they have beating Paraguay in them. Of course, if you're New Zealand it might be a moral victory simply to leave the World Cup without a loss.
Brazil 3-1 Ivory Coast
It only gets worse for African teams. I like Sven-Goran Eriksson, but in the wake of this result his apparent decision to play Portugal for a draw from the start becomes more suspect. At this point Ivory Coast really need North Korea to get a result off Portugal, and then to beat North Korea themselves in the final group of games while Portugal fails to win against Brazil. All of these are moderately reasonable outcomes, to be fair, but Ivory Coast would be in much better shape had they been able to take Portugal in the opening game, and it just never seemed like they were really trying to. This particular game is also noteworthy because it featured Luis Fabiano scoring after handling the ball twice, which somehow the officials missed even though I could spot it at full speed and with Fabiano only an inch or two high on a computer screen. I doubt removing that goal from Brazil's books would have made much difference, but sheesh, do you really need to make things easier for Brazil?
The final round of games begins Tuesday, and I'm excited, as most groups either still have all to play for or feature a do-or-die game. Consider the following:
Group A: This one would have been a snoozer, but suddenly maybe the hosts aren't quite dead - France are clearly in shambles, so what if South Africa can capitalize and flatten them 3-0? If Uruguay defeated Mexico 2-0 at the same time, South Africa would advance. Sure, it's completely unlikely... but let's throw Africa a bone here. They don't have a lot going on.
Group B: I fully expect Argentina to wallop Greece, and assuming that happens it makes South Korea and Nigeria into an elimination game, albeit one that Nigeria would have to win by two goals to advance. Still, everyone still having a shot to move on on the last day makes for an exciting finish.
Group C: Well, obviously. All four teams can still move on. It'll be interesting to see exactly how these games play out, as I can't help but think Slovenia will be happy to play for a draw with England, while the US and Algeria will both be playing for the win.
Group D: Anyone can still move on here as well, though obviously some scenarios are likelier than others. Serbia advance with a win. Ghana advance with a win - or, if Serbia don't win, with a draw. Germany advance with a win, or probably with a draw if Serbia lose. Australia needs to win and for Ghana to win; alternately, the Aussies will be hoping to win by several goals and for Ghana to get thumped in hopes of turning around a significant five-goal differential.
Group E: The Dutch are in and Cameroon are out, but that makes Japan/Denmark a for-sure elimination game. The Japanese have a one-goal edge in GD, so one wonders if they might just play for the draw, especially since a situation that involves them having to score more than one goal is not going to be to their liking.
Group F: As discussed above, all four teams advance with a win, regardless of other results - the one exception being Slovakia, who need to win and have New Zealand not win. Paraguay and Italy still seem like the obvious call, but who knows? If both games end in draws, New Zealand could still squeak this one out without even having to win.
Groups G and H: Still a lot of scenarios. Things will likely be a little clearer after Monday.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Nine
I don't know if it's ironic or just kind of sad, but this is really starting to look like it will be the worst World Cup for African teams since 1982, the year West Germany and Austria colluded to deny Algeria a place in the second round, and the last time no African team advanced past the first.
Netherlands 1-0 Japan
Japan played fairly well defensively in this game - the Dutch goal was a rocket from Wesley Sneijder that the keeper could do pretty much nothing about - and nearly tied it when Shinji Okazaki fired maybe a yard over the bar on the stroke of 90 minutes. Japan now go into a winner-take-all match with Denmark and the only question is this: can Japan score enough to win? Will one goal be enough? A draw would actually be sufficient to progress Japan, so maybe they won't even need one goal provided they can keep another clean sheet; they're quite close to not having conceded in the World Cup at all. The Netherlands seem bored, like they're just waiting for the knockouts to start; they dominated possession as usual, but only took ten shots, although you can chalk some of that up to Japan's defense.
Australia 1-1 Ghana
The Socceroos are alive by just the slimmest of margins, but had it not been for Harry Kewell's ejection for a handball on the goal line - the resulting penalty from Asamoah Gyan providing Ghana's lone goal, as well - they could have taken this one. Australia went up 1-0 in the eleventh minute and then were successful at holding off a rampaging Ghana until the ball hit Kewell's arm. Oddly, Ghana shut down for much of the second half as if playing for a draw; the Black Stars didn't take a shot between the 60th and 88th minutes, while Australia surged forward as if they were the ones who had an extra man. Ghana's center backs were woeful and very nearly gave the game away, with Australia coming closer to the winning goal than Ghana really ever did. Ghana suddenly came alive in the last few minutes, but it was too little, too late. The real question is why they didn't attack more strongly against a team down a man, something known only to Ghana themselves.
Denmark 2-1 Cameroon
I only saw the last few minutes of this one, in which Cameroon tried for an equalizer but were clearly gassed. It sounds like there was some slack defending on both sides, with Cameroon taking an early lead through Samuel Eto'o but proceeding to give it back and then some.
So how are the African teams doing? Well, only Cameroon have been officially eliminated, but it's not looking great. South Africa are almost certain to be eliminated, the first hosts ever to miss the second round. Nigeria are bottom of Group B, though they could advance with a win over South Korea and a little help from the Argentinians. Algeria are bottom of Group C, though a win over the US combined with a Slovenia win over England would advance them. Ghana do top Group D at the moment, but they may well need a win over Germany to advance, something I'm not lining up to bet on. Ivory Coast have a chance; we'll know more after their game with Brazil and perhaps more specifically after Portugal's game with North Korea. But I'm not convinced by them either, especially with Didier Drogba not fully fit.
Two African teams have never advanced in the same year, so if one moves on, Africa has merely lived up to usual expectations. But with this Cup being in Africa, obviously so much more was expected. And without a lot of help, it's entirely possible that no African team will move on. For the sake of the continent and this Cup, I hope that doesn't happen.
Netherlands 1-0 Japan
Japan played fairly well defensively in this game - the Dutch goal was a rocket from Wesley Sneijder that the keeper could do pretty much nothing about - and nearly tied it when Shinji Okazaki fired maybe a yard over the bar on the stroke of 90 minutes. Japan now go into a winner-take-all match with Denmark and the only question is this: can Japan score enough to win? Will one goal be enough? A draw would actually be sufficient to progress Japan, so maybe they won't even need one goal provided they can keep another clean sheet; they're quite close to not having conceded in the World Cup at all. The Netherlands seem bored, like they're just waiting for the knockouts to start; they dominated possession as usual, but only took ten shots, although you can chalk some of that up to Japan's defense.
Australia 1-1 Ghana
The Socceroos are alive by just the slimmest of margins, but had it not been for Harry Kewell's ejection for a handball on the goal line - the resulting penalty from Asamoah Gyan providing Ghana's lone goal, as well - they could have taken this one. Australia went up 1-0 in the eleventh minute and then were successful at holding off a rampaging Ghana until the ball hit Kewell's arm. Oddly, Ghana shut down for much of the second half as if playing for a draw; the Black Stars didn't take a shot between the 60th and 88th minutes, while Australia surged forward as if they were the ones who had an extra man. Ghana's center backs were woeful and very nearly gave the game away, with Australia coming closer to the winning goal than Ghana really ever did. Ghana suddenly came alive in the last few minutes, but it was too little, too late. The real question is why they didn't attack more strongly against a team down a man, something known only to Ghana themselves.
Denmark 2-1 Cameroon
I only saw the last few minutes of this one, in which Cameroon tried for an equalizer but were clearly gassed. It sounds like there was some slack defending on both sides, with Cameroon taking an early lead through Samuel Eto'o but proceeding to give it back and then some.
So how are the African teams doing? Well, only Cameroon have been officially eliminated, but it's not looking great. South Africa are almost certain to be eliminated, the first hosts ever to miss the second round. Nigeria are bottom of Group B, though they could advance with a win over South Korea and a little help from the Argentinians. Algeria are bottom of Group C, though a win over the US combined with a Slovenia win over England would advance them. Ghana do top Group D at the moment, but they may well need a win over Germany to advance, something I'm not lining up to bet on. Ivory Coast have a chance; we'll know more after their game with Brazil and perhaps more specifically after Portugal's game with North Korea. But I'm not convinced by them either, especially with Didier Drogba not fully fit.
Two African teams have never advanced in the same year, so if one moves on, Africa has merely lived up to usual expectations. But with this Cup being in Africa, obviously so much more was expected. And without a lot of help, it's entirely possible that no African team will move on. For the sake of the continent and this Cup, I hope that doesn't happen.
Friday, June 18, 2010
A tale of two halves
USA 2-2 Slovenia
The way I felt at the end of each half in this game really mirrored the way I felt at the end of the USA's first two games in 2006.
At the end of the first half I was morose, deflated, angry at the team for conceding goals so easily, trying desperately to think of a silver lining - much like I was at the end of the 3-0 defeat to the Czech Republic that opened the 2006 Cup.
At the end of the second half I was drained, exhilarated, thrilled to have a point but furious at the officials for stealing two more - much like I was at the end of the 1-1 draw with Italy.
It's obviously the main part of the story, so let's get the officiating out of the way first. First of all: it was a goal. Of course it was a goal. Unlike DaMarcus Beasley's "game-winning goal" in the Italy game, which was called back for a tough but legitimate offsides on Brian McBride, there is simply no way to defend the whistle blowing in this situation. This wasn't even a case of a guy being too quick to call a foul; any foul was quite clearly on Slovenia. The ref - Koman Coulibaly of Mali, officiating his first ever World Cup game - wasn't trigger-happy, he was incompetent. Or crooked. Given that he didn't even blow the full-time whistle properly, I lean toward the former, but an awful lot of questionable calls went against the US in the first half (including a ludicrous yellow card on Robbie Findley for having the temerity to take a ball off the face in the Slovenian box, though this does spare us having to watch Findley refuse to shoot from five yards out in the Algeria game, for which he's now suspended). It's ironic that we'd spent the first week of the tournament talking about how good the officiating had been - with the red card on Tim Cahill in the Germany/Australia game the only really poor decision of note - and then we got, in one day, Alberto Undiano Mallenco doing his best impersonation of Valentin Ivanov (and potentially submarining Germany's tournament in the process) and Coulibaly's performance, one of the worst from an all-around standpoint that I can remember seeing in a football game. Even Graham Poll's three-yellow-card game (Croatia/Australia 2006) wasn't as bad back to front as this one was.
But with that out of the way, let's face it: we can say what we want about Coulibaly - and I have - but he didn't cost the US the win. Bad refereeing decisions, sadly, are part of football - part of sports - and they're just going to happen. The trick is not to put yourself in a position where they can cost you a game. And by going down 2-0 in the first half thanks to yet more shoddy defending, the Americans put themselves in a position where Coulibaly's decision could cost them the game. Leaving Valter Birsa unchallenged from 24 yards in the thirteenth minute cost them a win. Letting Zlatan Ljubljankic get completely behind the defense in the 42nd minute cost them a win. Coulibaly's awful call cost them the win, yes. They were absolutely cheated. But ultimately, what they could control were those two goals, neither of which should have been given away as easily as they were. And if they don't give those goals away, the bad call never gets a chance to matter.
And really, that's what the US need to focus on going forward. You can't fix the refereeing going into the next game (though I would figure it couldn't be this bad). But you can at least try to fix your own poor defense (more so in first halves) and inability to keep from conceding in the first fifteen minutes of games. We're all mad about the call, but that's not going to solve anything. They've got to go forward and figure out how to beat Algeria, without worrying about what the refs might do. Play well enough and you don't give the refs a chance to ruin it.
In some ways, I'm glad the US didn't get the win here. A win basically vindicates their propensity for going behind - well, hey, you can never count the Americans out! - even though their recent results prove that it need not be that way. I don't want to see the team that showed up in this first half against Algeria. I want to see the team that needed to beat Egypt 3-0 to advance in the Confederations Cup and did. I want to see the team that beat Spain 2-0, or that jumped out to a 2-0 lead on Brazil after 27 minutes. That's the team that needs to show up, and that's the team that had better show up. Because here's a prediction I will make for you: if the US trail Algeria 2-0 at halftime on Wednesday, their tournament will be over.
Serbia 1-0 Germany
Weird game. Germany never looked like the side that showed up to stomp Australia until after a few soft yellow cards (apparently any foul from behind deserved a card?) that culminated in Miroslav Klose being sent off and Serbia putting in a goal just two minutes later. Even down a man, Germany looked the better side for much of the second half - gaining a penalty that could have tied it only to see Lukas Podolski miss - and I found myself, bizarrely, rooting for the Germans to find an equalizer simply because I felt it was no less than they deserved. It wasn't to be, which is a shame, but on the other hand it blows Group D wide open and makes tomorrow's Ghana-Australia tilt a lot more fascinating.
England 0-0 Algeria
You really wonder what the final day of Group C - Wednesday the 23rd - has in store for us. When discussing the scenarios that could see the US advance, I had always assumed England beating Algeria as a given. Now things are all screwed up. I didn't see this game, but from what I've heard England looked pretty awful offensively, thanks in part to a stout Algerian defense. That kind of terrifies me for Wednesday, but hey - we only need one goal. (Just so long as we don't freaking give up any.)
The most amazing thing about this result is it means it is entirely possible - though of course you would not want to count on this - that the US can advance to the second round simply by drawing Algeria, which would make them the first team to advance to the second round of the World Cup without getting a win since Chile in 1998. Here are the possible scenarios:
US defeat Algeria
Obviously preferable. A win over Algeria advances the US automatically. If it comes along with a draw in England/Slovenia, the US and Slovenia advance, with the US coming first in the group if they win by two goals or more, or win by one goal but score more total goals than Slovenia. If Slovenia win, they top the group and the US come second. If England win, the US and England advance, with first place in the group determined by who won by more goals; if they won by the same number of goals, it's reasonably likely that the US would win the second tiebreaker as they currently have a two-goal edge on England in total goals scored in the group.
US draw Algeria
This would be annoying, and yet if England don't win (which looks more possible by the second) it would almost certainly advance the US anyway. If the US and Algeria draw, that gives the US three points and Algeria two; an England loss to Slovenia would leave the English on two points, and the Americans would advance in second place. An England/Slovenia draw would also see Slovenia win the group, with the US and England tied for second, but the US come into Wednesday with a two-goal advantage in total goals scored, which presumably would be difficult for England to overturn - if the US drew 1-1, England would have to draw 3-3 just to force the next tiebreaker, an unlikely result. However, if that did happen, advancement would be determined by the drawing of lots. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
US lose to Algeria
Obviously the US are out if this happens. Amazingly, Algeria are still in with a pretty good shout - if they win and England don't, Algeria advance. Pray this doesn't happen.
The way I felt at the end of each half in this game really mirrored the way I felt at the end of the USA's first two games in 2006.
At the end of the first half I was morose, deflated, angry at the team for conceding goals so easily, trying desperately to think of a silver lining - much like I was at the end of the 3-0 defeat to the Czech Republic that opened the 2006 Cup.
At the end of the second half I was drained, exhilarated, thrilled to have a point but furious at the officials for stealing two more - much like I was at the end of the 1-1 draw with Italy.
It's obviously the main part of the story, so let's get the officiating out of the way first. First of all: it was a goal. Of course it was a goal. Unlike DaMarcus Beasley's "game-winning goal" in the Italy game, which was called back for a tough but legitimate offsides on Brian McBride, there is simply no way to defend the whistle blowing in this situation. This wasn't even a case of a guy being too quick to call a foul; any foul was quite clearly on Slovenia. The ref - Koman Coulibaly of Mali, officiating his first ever World Cup game - wasn't trigger-happy, he was incompetent. Or crooked. Given that he didn't even blow the full-time whistle properly, I lean toward the former, but an awful lot of questionable calls went against the US in the first half (including a ludicrous yellow card on Robbie Findley for having the temerity to take a ball off the face in the Slovenian box, though this does spare us having to watch Findley refuse to shoot from five yards out in the Algeria game, for which he's now suspended). It's ironic that we'd spent the first week of the tournament talking about how good the officiating had been - with the red card on Tim Cahill in the Germany/Australia game the only really poor decision of note - and then we got, in one day, Alberto Undiano Mallenco doing his best impersonation of Valentin Ivanov (and potentially submarining Germany's tournament in the process) and Coulibaly's performance, one of the worst from an all-around standpoint that I can remember seeing in a football game. Even Graham Poll's three-yellow-card game (Croatia/Australia 2006) wasn't as bad back to front as this one was.
But with that out of the way, let's face it: we can say what we want about Coulibaly - and I have - but he didn't cost the US the win. Bad refereeing decisions, sadly, are part of football - part of sports - and they're just going to happen. The trick is not to put yourself in a position where they can cost you a game. And by going down 2-0 in the first half thanks to yet more shoddy defending, the Americans put themselves in a position where Coulibaly's decision could cost them the game. Leaving Valter Birsa unchallenged from 24 yards in the thirteenth minute cost them a win. Letting Zlatan Ljubljankic get completely behind the defense in the 42nd minute cost them a win. Coulibaly's awful call cost them the win, yes. They were absolutely cheated. But ultimately, what they could control were those two goals, neither of which should have been given away as easily as they were. And if they don't give those goals away, the bad call never gets a chance to matter.
And really, that's what the US need to focus on going forward. You can't fix the refereeing going into the next game (though I would figure it couldn't be this bad). But you can at least try to fix your own poor defense (more so in first halves) and inability to keep from conceding in the first fifteen minutes of games. We're all mad about the call, but that's not going to solve anything. They've got to go forward and figure out how to beat Algeria, without worrying about what the refs might do. Play well enough and you don't give the refs a chance to ruin it.
In some ways, I'm glad the US didn't get the win here. A win basically vindicates their propensity for going behind - well, hey, you can never count the Americans out! - even though their recent results prove that it need not be that way. I don't want to see the team that showed up in this first half against Algeria. I want to see the team that needed to beat Egypt 3-0 to advance in the Confederations Cup and did. I want to see the team that beat Spain 2-0, or that jumped out to a 2-0 lead on Brazil after 27 minutes. That's the team that needs to show up, and that's the team that had better show up. Because here's a prediction I will make for you: if the US trail Algeria 2-0 at halftime on Wednesday, their tournament will be over.
Serbia 1-0 Germany
Weird game. Germany never looked like the side that showed up to stomp Australia until after a few soft yellow cards (apparently any foul from behind deserved a card?) that culminated in Miroslav Klose being sent off and Serbia putting in a goal just two minutes later. Even down a man, Germany looked the better side for much of the second half - gaining a penalty that could have tied it only to see Lukas Podolski miss - and I found myself, bizarrely, rooting for the Germans to find an equalizer simply because I felt it was no less than they deserved. It wasn't to be, which is a shame, but on the other hand it blows Group D wide open and makes tomorrow's Ghana-Australia tilt a lot more fascinating.
England 0-0 Algeria
You really wonder what the final day of Group C - Wednesday the 23rd - has in store for us. When discussing the scenarios that could see the US advance, I had always assumed England beating Algeria as a given. Now things are all screwed up. I didn't see this game, but from what I've heard England looked pretty awful offensively, thanks in part to a stout Algerian defense. That kind of terrifies me for Wednesday, but hey - we only need one goal. (Just so long as we don't freaking give up any.)
The most amazing thing about this result is it means it is entirely possible - though of course you would not want to count on this - that the US can advance to the second round simply by drawing Algeria, which would make them the first team to advance to the second round of the World Cup without getting a win since Chile in 1998. Here are the possible scenarios:
US defeat Algeria
Obviously preferable. A win over Algeria advances the US automatically. If it comes along with a draw in England/Slovenia, the US and Slovenia advance, with the US coming first in the group if they win by two goals or more, or win by one goal but score more total goals than Slovenia. If Slovenia win, they top the group and the US come second. If England win, the US and England advance, with first place in the group determined by who won by more goals; if they won by the same number of goals, it's reasonably likely that the US would win the second tiebreaker as they currently have a two-goal edge on England in total goals scored in the group.
US draw Algeria
This would be annoying, and yet if England don't win (which looks more possible by the second) it would almost certainly advance the US anyway. If the US and Algeria draw, that gives the US three points and Algeria two; an England loss to Slovenia would leave the English on two points, and the Americans would advance in second place. An England/Slovenia draw would also see Slovenia win the group, with the US and England tied for second, but the US come into Wednesday with a two-goal advantage in total goals scored, which presumably would be difficult for England to overturn - if the US drew 1-1, England would have to draw 3-3 just to force the next tiebreaker, an unlikely result. However, if that did happen, advancement would be determined by the drawing of lots. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
US lose to Algeria
Obviously the US are out if this happens. Amazingly, Algeria are still in with a pretty good shout - if they win and England don't, Algeria advance. Pray this doesn't happen.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Seven
It's starting to get serious.
Argentina 4-1 South Korea
The score line flatters the South Americans; it was 2-1 at halftime, although South Korea had never really looked like scoring until a defensive miscue by Argentina right before the half. As good as South Korea had looked against Greece, they couldn't get much going today except for a period midway through the second half where it briefly looked like they were seizing control - and then Argentina got their third and fourth goals just four minutes apart and put the game away. Argentina dominated the possession, with more than 60% of it, and they kind of have to; while they set up in a 4-3-3, they play more like a 2-5-3, dominating possession in the midfield, and both Messi and Tevez are killers with the ball at their feet. Higuain made the most of their distribution, scoring a hat trick that killed off the game after South Korea had opened the scoring with an own goal.
The real question is how Argentina will do in the knockouts. I fully expect them to breeze past Greece (more on them in a minute), but what happens when they run into a team like Germany that defends pretty well and has the offensive skills to expose a shaky defense?
Greece 2-1 Nigeria
I know they just got their first ever win at the World Cup, and I hate to be a buzzkill, but Greece: you're still terrible. I didn't see the game, but everything I've read suggests that Nigeria were in control of the game until Sani Kaita's Beckham-'98-esque red card that left the Super Eagles with an hour to defend a one-goal lead with ten men. Not surprisingly, they couldn't - although even then, both of Greece's goals were fairly weak. The first came via a huge deflection off a Nigerian defender, and the second was off a rare mistake by Vincent Enyeama, who let a standard shot bounce off him and right onto the feet of Vasilis Torosidis. Even then, Nigeria might have managed a draw had not Chinedu Ogbuke missed an open net from eight yards away.
Oddly, Nigeria still have a perfectly reasonable chance to win the group. With Argentina at six points and likely to beat Greece, and South Korea and Greece both at 3, Nigeria need only defeat South Korea to advance. That could be a very good game assuming South Korea don't count on Argentina beating Greece and play for a draw.
Mexico 2-0 France
Players who prominently appear in Nike's "Write the Future" ad: Didier Drogba, Fabio Cannavaro, Franck Ribery, Wayne Rooney, Ronaldinho, Cristiano Ronaldo. Total record of those players at the World Cup so far: 0-5-1 (Ronaldinho, of course, is not even on the Brazil squad this year). Ribery now becomes the first of the group to suffer a loss, and it becomes clear how much Zinedine Zidane meant to the French. With Zidane, the French won the 1998 World Cup, as well as Euro 2000, and made the final game in 2006; without him, they crashed out of the 2002 World Cup without scoring a goal (he did play in the third game but was never fully fit). And here we are again - while they may score against South Africa, France are almost certain to crash out of the World Cup, thus cementing an impressive alternation of win, crash out, make the final, crash out, in four straight Cups. Hard to do.
Meanwhile, the Mexican win means Mexico and Uruguay are almost certain to advance; both would move on with a draw in their final game, while even a loss by one would require a significant shift in goal differential to allow either France or South Africa to pass through instead. This sets up one of two intriguing rematches in the second round - either a rematch of Mexico/Argentina, one of the better games of the 2006 second round and ended on Maxi Rodriguez's wonder goal, or Uruguay/Argentina, a tantalizing border war as well as a rematch of the first ever World Cup final from 1930.
Tomorrow: the moment of truth for the Americans. Outside of CONCACAF qualifying, the US are pretty unaccustomed to being the favorites, and while neither a draw nor even a loss would completely end things, it would certainly leave us needing help. It's a must-win. Shudder.
Argentina 4-1 South Korea
The score line flatters the South Americans; it was 2-1 at halftime, although South Korea had never really looked like scoring until a defensive miscue by Argentina right before the half. As good as South Korea had looked against Greece, they couldn't get much going today except for a period midway through the second half where it briefly looked like they were seizing control - and then Argentina got their third and fourth goals just four minutes apart and put the game away. Argentina dominated the possession, with more than 60% of it, and they kind of have to; while they set up in a 4-3-3, they play more like a 2-5-3, dominating possession in the midfield, and both Messi and Tevez are killers with the ball at their feet. Higuain made the most of their distribution, scoring a hat trick that killed off the game after South Korea had opened the scoring with an own goal.
The real question is how Argentina will do in the knockouts. I fully expect them to breeze past Greece (more on them in a minute), but what happens when they run into a team like Germany that defends pretty well and has the offensive skills to expose a shaky defense?
Greece 2-1 Nigeria
I know they just got their first ever win at the World Cup, and I hate to be a buzzkill, but Greece: you're still terrible. I didn't see the game, but everything I've read suggests that Nigeria were in control of the game until Sani Kaita's Beckham-'98-esque red card that left the Super Eagles with an hour to defend a one-goal lead with ten men. Not surprisingly, they couldn't - although even then, both of Greece's goals were fairly weak. The first came via a huge deflection off a Nigerian defender, and the second was off a rare mistake by Vincent Enyeama, who let a standard shot bounce off him and right onto the feet of Vasilis Torosidis. Even then, Nigeria might have managed a draw had not Chinedu Ogbuke missed an open net from eight yards away.
Oddly, Nigeria still have a perfectly reasonable chance to win the group. With Argentina at six points and likely to beat Greece, and South Korea and Greece both at 3, Nigeria need only defeat South Korea to advance. That could be a very good game assuming South Korea don't count on Argentina beating Greece and play for a draw.
Mexico 2-0 France
Players who prominently appear in Nike's "Write the Future" ad: Didier Drogba, Fabio Cannavaro, Franck Ribery, Wayne Rooney, Ronaldinho, Cristiano Ronaldo. Total record of those players at the World Cup so far: 0-5-1 (Ronaldinho, of course, is not even on the Brazil squad this year). Ribery now becomes the first of the group to suffer a loss, and it becomes clear how much Zinedine Zidane meant to the French. With Zidane, the French won the 1998 World Cup, as well as Euro 2000, and made the final game in 2006; without him, they crashed out of the 2002 World Cup without scoring a goal (he did play in the third game but was never fully fit). And here we are again - while they may score against South Africa, France are almost certain to crash out of the World Cup, thus cementing an impressive alternation of win, crash out, make the final, crash out, in four straight Cups. Hard to do.
Meanwhile, the Mexican win means Mexico and Uruguay are almost certain to advance; both would move on with a draw in their final game, while even a loss by one would require a significant shift in goal differential to allow either France or South Africa to pass through instead. This sets up one of two intriguing rematches in the second round - either a rematch of Mexico/Argentina, one of the better games of the 2006 second round and ended on Maxi Rodriguez's wonder goal, or Uruguay/Argentina, a tantalizing border war as well as a rematch of the first ever World Cup final from 1930.
Tomorrow: the moment of truth for the Americans. Outside of CONCACAF qualifying, the US are pretty unaccustomed to being the favorites, and while neither a draw nor even a loss would completely end things, it would certainly leave us needing help. It's a must-win. Shudder.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
World Cup 2010: Group Analysis, first set of games
Group A
Since South Africa and Uruguay have played their second games already, this will be slightly more concrete than the others.
1. Uruguay, 1-1-0, 4 points
2. Mexico, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
3. France, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. South Africa, 0-1-1, 1 point, -3 GD
Let's assume France and Mexico draw tomorrow. For South Africa to advance, they would need to beat France in their final game, and have Mexico fail to win. Fortunately for South Africa, Uruguay aren't likely to punt the final game knowing that they need at least a draw to top the group. Unfortunately for South Africa, beating France isn't exactly the easiest ask. At this point, Uruguay seem the likely bet to top the group, and advancement is almost certain. The only way Uruguay would fail to advance is if Mexico and France draw and then both win in the third set of games; as long as Uruguay don't lose to Mexico, they'll move on. Who advances with them will depend on the Mexico/France result; the winner there certainly takes control, but a draw leaves every team in play. If I had to guess, I'd say it should be France, especially since they're probably more like to beat South Africa than Mexico are to beat Uruguay.
Group B
1. South Korea, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Argentina, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Nigeria, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Greece, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD
Based on the first games, tomorrow's Argentina-South Korea tilt has real potential. I still expect Argentina to top the group, but we'll see. Nigeria have to hope for a win over Greece and Argentina defeating South Korea, leading to a win-or-go-home game between South Korea and Nigeria in the third set. While Greece were surprisingly poor in the first game, this still has potential to be perhaps our most exciting group overall.
Group C
1. Slovenia, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. England, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
2t. USA, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
4. Algeria, 0-0-1, 0 points
While the second set of games is massive in most if not all of the groups, it is particularly so here, especially where the Americans are concerned. A win over Slovenia is a virtual must for the US; while a draw would not cripple their chances, a loss would be devastating. Losing to Slovenia (combined with an expected England win over Algeria) means the only American hope would be a comfortable win over Algeria and, less likely, Slovenia going on to take all nine points; a draw, while it would make things uncomfortable, would still enable the US to advance with merely a win over Algeria and a Slovenia loss to England. A win, on the other hand, would make the US masters of their own destinies, requiring just a further win or draw with Algeria to advance regardless of the England/Slovenia outcome. If the hope is to avoid Germany, of course, the US will want to win both, by as many goals as possible.
Group D
1. Germany, 1-0-0, 3 points, 4 GD
2. Ghana, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Serbia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Australia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -4 GD
Germany look set to take all nine points, meaning the only question is who comes second. Ghana are obviously in pole position; because of Australia's awful GD, the Black Stars need only draw the Socceroos on Saturday to feel pretty comfortable about advancing. Assuming Germany beat Serbia, Ghana could lose to Germany and have Australia win and still advance easily, so long as neither game was a blowout. Australia, of course, absolutely must win over Ghana to have any confidence that they can progress with a result in the Serbia game, due to that goal differential.
Group E
1. Netherlands, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Japan, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Cameroon, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Denmark, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD
Saturday's Denmark-Cameroon game is probably the key matchup here. I fully expect the Netherlands to defeat Japan, meaning that the Denmark-Cameroon winner - assuming we get one - moves into good position to advance. Denmark, having played the Dutch first, are almost masters of their own destiny at this point; assuming the Dutch will probably beat both Japan and Cameroon, Denmark need only do the same to move on. For Japan, the key will be a result in the Netherlands game; even a draw there means that a result in their tilt with Denmark promises advancement. Cameroon desperately need a win over Denmark, but they may be in trouble regardless with a final matchup against the Dutch.
Group F
1t. Italy, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. New Zealand, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Paraguay, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Slovakia, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
Winston Reid's late header really shook things up, making the entire group completely level as it did. It also makes the Paraguay-Slovakia game perhaps the most important of the entire group stage. Had Slovakia won the first game, a draw here would have been okay; now, with Italy looming for the Slovaks in their final game, a win is vital if they hope to advance. Even the minnows are in with a shout, but New Zealand need to pull out a win somewhere and I don't really see that happening. Italy and Paraguay are still my likely bets to advance.
Group G
1. Brazil, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. Ivory Coast, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
2t. Portugal, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. North Korea, 0-0-1, 0 points
Ivory Coast pretty much played Portugal for a draw, and you have to imagine they'll do the same with Brazil. After all, two draws and a win over North Korea - or even a loss to Brazil and a win over North Korea - are likely to put the Elephants through. However, losing to Brazil is both the most likely proposition and a bit risky; assuming Portugal also defeat North Korea, it's possible that Brazil and Portugal might then be happy to play for a draw in their final game, not unlike West Germany and Austria in 1982. Sunday's Ivory Coast-Brazil game thus threatens to be as dull as Ivory Coast-Portugal was with the Ivorians potentially desperate not to lose. However, their defense isn't as stout as North Korea's and Brazil still got two goals in that game.
Group H
1t. Chile, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
1t. Switzerland, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
3t. Honduras, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD
3t. Spain, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD
Spain and Honduras play Monday in a game I'm fully expecting Spain to win about 5-0 now. Chile and Switzerland meet on the same day in a crucial game. If they draw, both can advance at the expense of Spain so long as neither lose their last game. Because Spain will almost certainly beat Honduras, and I expect them to do so comfortably, a Chile-Switzerland winner is not guaranteed advancement. A win by Chile would put them on six points with Switzerland and (presumably) Spain on three, but Switzerland could beat Honduras and Spain beat Chile in the third set of games, risking Chile getting dumped out depending on differentials. Ditto Switzerland; a win over Chile puts them on six points, but they would still need to get a result from the Honduras game or have Spain not win against Chile. Spain are still perfectly capable of going through if they can defeat Honduras and Chile, but things would be easier for them if Chile do not win the Switzerland game, as a Chile win over Switzerland and a Swiss win over Honduras combined with two wins by Spain leads to a three-way tie that could still always see the Spanish eliminated on GD. Of course, thumping Honduras would limit that likelihood.
Since South Africa and Uruguay have played their second games already, this will be slightly more concrete than the others.
1. Uruguay, 1-1-0, 4 points
2. Mexico, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
3. France, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. South Africa, 0-1-1, 1 point, -3 GD
Let's assume France and Mexico draw tomorrow. For South Africa to advance, they would need to beat France in their final game, and have Mexico fail to win. Fortunately for South Africa, Uruguay aren't likely to punt the final game knowing that they need at least a draw to top the group. Unfortunately for South Africa, beating France isn't exactly the easiest ask. At this point, Uruguay seem the likely bet to top the group, and advancement is almost certain. The only way Uruguay would fail to advance is if Mexico and France draw and then both win in the third set of games; as long as Uruguay don't lose to Mexico, they'll move on. Who advances with them will depend on the Mexico/France result; the winner there certainly takes control, but a draw leaves every team in play. If I had to guess, I'd say it should be France, especially since they're probably more like to beat South Africa than Mexico are to beat Uruguay.
Group B
1. South Korea, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Argentina, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Nigeria, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Greece, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD
Based on the first games, tomorrow's Argentina-South Korea tilt has real potential. I still expect Argentina to top the group, but we'll see. Nigeria have to hope for a win over Greece and Argentina defeating South Korea, leading to a win-or-go-home game between South Korea and Nigeria in the third set. While Greece were surprisingly poor in the first game, this still has potential to be perhaps our most exciting group overall.
Group C
1. Slovenia, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. England, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
2t. USA, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
4. Algeria, 0-0-1, 0 points
While the second set of games is massive in most if not all of the groups, it is particularly so here, especially where the Americans are concerned. A win over Slovenia is a virtual must for the US; while a draw would not cripple their chances, a loss would be devastating. Losing to Slovenia (combined with an expected England win over Algeria) means the only American hope would be a comfortable win over Algeria and, less likely, Slovenia going on to take all nine points; a draw, while it would make things uncomfortable, would still enable the US to advance with merely a win over Algeria and a Slovenia loss to England. A win, on the other hand, would make the US masters of their own destinies, requiring just a further win or draw with Algeria to advance regardless of the England/Slovenia outcome. If the hope is to avoid Germany, of course, the US will want to win both, by as many goals as possible.
Group D
1. Germany, 1-0-0, 3 points, 4 GD
2. Ghana, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Serbia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Australia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -4 GD
Germany look set to take all nine points, meaning the only question is who comes second. Ghana are obviously in pole position; because of Australia's awful GD, the Black Stars need only draw the Socceroos on Saturday to feel pretty comfortable about advancing. Assuming Germany beat Serbia, Ghana could lose to Germany and have Australia win and still advance easily, so long as neither game was a blowout. Australia, of course, absolutely must win over Ghana to have any confidence that they can progress with a result in the Serbia game, due to that goal differential.
Group E
1. Netherlands, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Japan, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Cameroon, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Denmark, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD
Saturday's Denmark-Cameroon game is probably the key matchup here. I fully expect the Netherlands to defeat Japan, meaning that the Denmark-Cameroon winner - assuming we get one - moves into good position to advance. Denmark, having played the Dutch first, are almost masters of their own destiny at this point; assuming the Dutch will probably beat both Japan and Cameroon, Denmark need only do the same to move on. For Japan, the key will be a result in the Netherlands game; even a draw there means that a result in their tilt with Denmark promises advancement. Cameroon desperately need a win over Denmark, but they may be in trouble regardless with a final matchup against the Dutch.
Group F
1t. Italy, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. New Zealand, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Paraguay, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Slovakia, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
Winston Reid's late header really shook things up, making the entire group completely level as it did. It also makes the Paraguay-Slovakia game perhaps the most important of the entire group stage. Had Slovakia won the first game, a draw here would have been okay; now, with Italy looming for the Slovaks in their final game, a win is vital if they hope to advance. Even the minnows are in with a shout, but New Zealand need to pull out a win somewhere and I don't really see that happening. Italy and Paraguay are still my likely bets to advance.
Group G
1. Brazil, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. Ivory Coast, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
2t. Portugal, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. North Korea, 0-0-1, 0 points
Ivory Coast pretty much played Portugal for a draw, and you have to imagine they'll do the same with Brazil. After all, two draws and a win over North Korea - or even a loss to Brazil and a win over North Korea - are likely to put the Elephants through. However, losing to Brazil is both the most likely proposition and a bit risky; assuming Portugal also defeat North Korea, it's possible that Brazil and Portugal might then be happy to play for a draw in their final game, not unlike West Germany and Austria in 1982. Sunday's Ivory Coast-Brazil game thus threatens to be as dull as Ivory Coast-Portugal was with the Ivorians potentially desperate not to lose. However, their defense isn't as stout as North Korea's and Brazil still got two goals in that game.
Group H
1t. Chile, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
1t. Switzerland, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
3t. Honduras, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD
3t. Spain, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD
Spain and Honduras play Monday in a game I'm fully expecting Spain to win about 5-0 now. Chile and Switzerland meet on the same day in a crucial game. If they draw, both can advance at the expense of Spain so long as neither lose their last game. Because Spain will almost certainly beat Honduras, and I expect them to do so comfortably, a Chile-Switzerland winner is not guaranteed advancement. A win by Chile would put them on six points with Switzerland and (presumably) Spain on three, but Switzerland could beat Honduras and Spain beat Chile in the third set of games, risking Chile getting dumped out depending on differentials. Ditto Switzerland; a win over Chile puts them on six points, but they would still need to get a result from the Honduras game or have Spain not win against Chile. Spain are still perfectly capable of going through if they can defeat Honduras and Chile, but things would be easier for them if Chile do not win the Switzerland game, as a Chile win over Switzerland and a Swiss win over Honduras combined with two wins by Spain leads to a three-way tie that could still always see the Spanish eliminated on GD. Of course, thumping Honduras would limit that likelihood.
World Cup 2010: Day Six
What a day, huh?
Chile 1-0 Honduras
I already covered this in the live blog, so I won't add much except to say that with the other Group H result, Chile's three points go a long way toward their advancement.
Switzerland 1-0 Spain
Enormous stunner, of course. I didn't see it live, but I did go back and watch the replay to see if I could get a sense for what happened, and what it comes down to is this: Switzerland set up for a draw from the start. Even in the first few minutes they were playing with eight men behind the ball. They knew they couldn't hang with Spain if the game were wide open, so they didn't even try. In many ways I was reminded of the US upset of England in 1950 - Spain dominated possession (74%), had a ton of shots (25, though only 5 on goal), and spent much more time in the attacking third... but they just could not put a shot in. Swiss keeper Diego Benaglio deserves a lot of credit for this, although so does the crossbar, which helped deny a Xabi Alonso bullet in the 70th minute. Meanwhile, a long kick from Benaglio started the play which led to Switzerland's goal, a bit of a messy affair that came completely against the run of play. Spain tried to push, but in the last few minutes the Swiss put all ten men behind the ball and the Spanish just couldn't break through.
So what does this do to the group? We'll address that, along with the other groups after one set of games, in a follow-up post.
Uruguay 3-0 South Africa
Whatever hope was generated by South Africa drawing Mexico in the first game was pretty well extinguished by the foot of Diego Forlan. I listened to this game on the radio and Uruguay seemed to be the better team rather easily; while the South Africans had a significant possession edge, this was mostly in midfield; Uruguay had 19 shots, six on goal, to South Africa's 11 shots, of which three were on goal.
The critical moment of the game, of course, came in the 76th minute, when Uruguay's Luis Suarez broke for goal. South African keeper Itumeleng Khune came out to challenge the ball, but ended up tripping Suarez - or at least, he ended up making contact with Suarez and Suarez went to ground. The referee called a penalty, which was reasonable, and then showed Khune a red card, which was probably extreme. Forlan converted the penalty, and at 2-0 and South Africa down to ten men the game was effectively over. So, for that matter, is South Africa's World Cup.
Chile 1-0 Honduras
I already covered this in the live blog, so I won't add much except to say that with the other Group H result, Chile's three points go a long way toward their advancement.
Switzerland 1-0 Spain
Enormous stunner, of course. I didn't see it live, but I did go back and watch the replay to see if I could get a sense for what happened, and what it comes down to is this: Switzerland set up for a draw from the start. Even in the first few minutes they were playing with eight men behind the ball. They knew they couldn't hang with Spain if the game were wide open, so they didn't even try. In many ways I was reminded of the US upset of England in 1950 - Spain dominated possession (74%), had a ton of shots (25, though only 5 on goal), and spent much more time in the attacking third... but they just could not put a shot in. Swiss keeper Diego Benaglio deserves a lot of credit for this, although so does the crossbar, which helped deny a Xabi Alonso bullet in the 70th minute. Meanwhile, a long kick from Benaglio started the play which led to Switzerland's goal, a bit of a messy affair that came completely against the run of play. Spain tried to push, but in the last few minutes the Swiss put all ten men behind the ball and the Spanish just couldn't break through.
So what does this do to the group? We'll address that, along with the other groups after one set of games, in a follow-up post.
Uruguay 3-0 South Africa
Whatever hope was generated by South Africa drawing Mexico in the first game was pretty well extinguished by the foot of Diego Forlan. I listened to this game on the radio and Uruguay seemed to be the better team rather easily; while the South Africans had a significant possession edge, this was mostly in midfield; Uruguay had 19 shots, six on goal, to South Africa's 11 shots, of which three were on goal.
The critical moment of the game, of course, came in the 76th minute, when Uruguay's Luis Suarez broke for goal. South African keeper Itumeleng Khune came out to challenge the ball, but ended up tripping Suarez - or at least, he ended up making contact with Suarez and Suarez went to ground. The referee called a penalty, which was reasonable, and then showed Khune a red card, which was probably extreme. Forlan converted the penalty, and at 2-0 and South Africa down to ten men the game was effectively over. So, for that matter, is South Africa's World Cup.
World Cup 2010: Day Six - Honduras/Chile Live Blog!
FULL TIME: That's it for now. Will I try this again? Maybe for one or both of the US games, but probably not for any more of the neutral games unless it's a particularly scintillating matchup. We'll see, I guess.
FULL TIME: Chile have won it 1-0. Well deserved, certainly, but Honduras were extremely poor and Chile should have scored more goals. Fortunately for them, the most likely situation in which GD will matter for them would be up against Switzerland, and the Swiss are not exactly known for their high-powered offense.
94': Gonzalez pushes the ball to goal again, and the whistle blows as Valladares collects it.
93': Honduras take a quick corner and nothing comes of it. Chile break and have 4-on-3 for a minute before Gonzalez curls it over the bar.
92': Just like that, it's finally given: three minutes. Meaning Honduras has one more.
92': Was it ever announced how much added time there was?
91': Gonzalez fires wide left. Honduras might want to try getting the ball at some point.
91': Harkes notes that we can't totally judge Chile based on this because "it is against Honduras." Yeah, pretty much.
90': Welcome takes a shot from the top of the box but it's not especially close. Honduras have about three minutes to somehow find an equalizer.
89': Fernandez is unmarked at the top of the box but the ball runs off his foot.
88': Sanchez goes down under contact, looks up at the ref, winces and grabs himself, then looks up again to make sure there was a whistle. This is why people hate soccer, you guys. Knock it off.
87': Valdivia finally comes off for a sub.
86': Healey and Harkes invoke New Zealand's late goal to draw Slovakia. Honduras, inspired by this pep talk, get the ball into the box but Bravo collects easily.
84': A Honduran fan in the crowd clasps her hands together and rocks back and forth. Sorry, lady; Chile's fans already prayed and you can't both win.
83': A header from Medel is just wide, but he's offsides anyway. Chile have hardly dropped back, possibly because Honduras have never shown a reason to worry about their attack.
81': Chile have more than 30 touches in the Honduran box and Honduras have one in the Chilean box, according to Healey. Sounds about right. Chile actually make a substitution.
80': Anyway, that would be 48 years between World Cup wins for Chile, which would pass the old record of 44 years by the United States. Sanchez goes for goal but his shot from 20+ yards goes well wide.
79': I don't think Honduras has spent more than a few minutes even in the Chilean half since the break.
78': Honduras put in Walter Martinez as their final sub. ESPN lists him at 5'5".
77': A free kick bounces around but Valladares is able to collect.
75': Chile almost score again, but Valladares makes a save, Sanchez appears to handle the rebound, and then Valdivia puts it in but is offsides.
75': Chile hasn't won a World Cup game since 1962, the year they hosted.
73': Usually this stuff evens up a bit, but with less than 20 minutes to play, Chile still has two-thirds of the possession. Chile has another couple chances, but a shot is blocked and Isla's header goes well wide.
72': Valdivia limps off but doesn't seem to be getting substituted just yet. Honduras attempt to build on the man advantage but a header into the box is collected by Bravo. Still don't think Honduras have touched the ball in the Chilean box.
71': I still don't think Honduras touched that one in the box. The ball deflects off Ponce's elbow, but no handball call, which I think is right. Jorge Valdivia picks up a random cramp and we get a break in the action.
70': After a nice move, Palacios wins a corner.
69': Chile almost score again but for a last-second tackle by Hendry Thomas. Honduras almost touch it in the Chilean box 30 seconds later, but it's cleared.
68': Healey and Harkes talk about the US-Slovenia game, and how Slovenia's win over Algeria makes the US feel they have to beat Slovenia. Sure, but they really should have felt that way already. You don't want to go into a game like that thinking a draw is cool. In a related story, I had a dream last night that Slovenia won all three games in the group. Let's hope it was something I ate.
67': Honduras control the ball for about 20 seconds and then lose it out of bounds. I could probably just copy and paste this.
65': English football-ism: "asking questions." As in, "Chile have been asking most of the questions today." The main question being "Man, how much does Honduras suck?"
64': Valladares makes an incredible save on a header from about six feet. Ponce is kicking himself that he couldn't bang that in.
63': Welcome flops goofily by stumbling backwards over a Chilean but gets the foul call. Does this count as getting into the Chilean box? Honduras gets right to the edge but it's an offsides call.
62': Taking bets on the next time Honduras actually gets the ball into the Chilean box. Meanwhile, Sanchez makes a run and then rolls it just wide left of the Honduran goal.
61': Not only is Chile much more threatening, their attacks are a lot prettier.
60': Pavon is substituted, with Georgie Welcome coming on. That's a fun name.
58': Healey says of a Chilean player, "It's a real mystery why he hasn't reproduced his South American form in Europe." I don't even know who he's talking about, but I promise you it is not that much of a mystery.
57': Sanchez gets stepped on in the box, but the ref misses it. It was probably unintentional anyway.
56': Nothing doing on the header, but Chile regroup yet again.
55': Sanchez abuses Espinoza and then gets taken down, earning a free kick from the right side, maybe 24 yards out.
54': Healey references Honduras' MLS connections yet again. Given how bad they've looked, I probably wouldn't keep talking about that.
53': Valladares must have an awful goal kick, as Figueroa takes another.
52': Another good chance from Chile, though it's eventually called for offsides as it falls to the last man.
50': Chile take the corner shot but can't fire the ball through a scrum. Pavon ends up on the ground in the box, apparently hurting himself on the clearance. Chile are forced to start over from back in their end.
48': Beausejour almost has an open shot at goal, but Figueroa just gets in the way with a challenge that sends Beausejour sprawling. There's going to be a penalty at some point if this keeps up. Sanchez then gets the ball taken away in the box but wins a corner for Chile.
47': Honduras seem to want a penalty, but Medel does get a touch on the ball. Very risky challenge but it paid off, as another Honduran attack is stifled.
46': Honduras, like New Zealand, are making their second appearance and first since 1982. Right now they look a lot worse than New Zealand.
HALF: I make it back from the shower with a couple minutes to spare, as the Chilean team comes back out to the field. Are soccer halftimes short or do I just spend that much time in the shower? On second thought, don't answer that.
HALF: Certainly a deserved 1-0 lead for Chile. For CONCACAF's sake, I'd love to see Honduras do anything in the second half, as the team that showed up in the first half is going out of this tournament without a point.
45': Not a bad kick from Nunez; Bravo has to tip it over. After the ensuing corner is deflected away, the first half whistle blows. Figures that it would happen right as Honduras was getting anything going.
45': A goal kick is taken by someone other than a goalie, as Figueroa boots it out for Honduras. Once again, I don't think I've ever seen that happen before. Honduras end up with a free kick 30ish yards out.
43': A graphic shows us that Chile has a 63-37 possession edge, and Healey confirms that Honduras have not touched the ball in the Chilean box yet. Chile get into Honduras' box again, and Honduras gets lucky with an inadvertent handball that is not called.
42': Honduras yet again gets something going, but can't get it into the box as a pass in Pavon's direction falls short and Chile goes back the other way. Valdivia springs Beausejour but Honduras clear his cross for a throw-in.
40': Beausejour's father is Haitian, and was in Haiti for the earthquake. Lots of earthquakes in that family.
39': Nunez takes a shot from outside the box, but it's not particularly close. Honduras have yet to really get a good chance.
38': A deep ball, but the Chilean forward is just a little offsides.
37': Chile nearly score another. Honduras' defense is starting to break down a bit.
34': GOAL! The ball is sent across the face of goal, and Beausejour is credited with it although the replay makes it look like Mendoza, the Honduran defender, had a lot to do with the ball going in. Still, Chile deserve the lead here.
33': Wilson Palacios is booked despite not seeming to do anything. The ref is not having the greatest of games, it must be said.
32': Chile break, then are stopped; Honduras break in response and are stopped; Chile break again. Somewhat exciting even if none of the breaks do so much as get into the area.
30': The South African fans have organized some sort of vuvuzela-playing conga line.
29': Ramon Nunez of Honduras dives horribly and gets the foul call. He sort of looks like a young Sammy Sosa.
27': Chile kick the ball out of bounds while Pavon rolls around on the ground. After throwing it in, Honduras look for a second like they aren't just going to give it back, which I don't think I've ever seen. The Chilean defender blocks the ball and then Honduras push it to Chile.
25': US defender Jonathan Bornstein is apparently a huge fan favorite in Honduras because he scored the goal against Costa Rica that allowed Honduras to qualify for the World Cup ahead of the Costa Ricans. Meanwhile, Vidal blasts a header over the goal off a corner.
23': Adrian Healey says the game has "the aroma of goals about it" despite being so far goalless. I guess?
22': Claudio Bravo grabs the corner easily and then sets up an attack with a long punt. Valdivia eventually gets a shot off that deflects out for a Chilean corner. Sanchez falls down while attempt to shoot from 20 yards and the ball goes out for a goal kick.
20': Honduras again manage to organize a counterattack and earn a corner after a long shot goes off the back of a Chilean defender.
19': Chile's Fernandez gets booked for a slightly rash challenge.
18': ...and nothing doing. It's a bit high/long. Honduras get on the break and then Pavon finds himself wide open about 25 yards from goal, but he hits it weakly wide left.
17': Chile win a corner...
16': Good tackle by Mendoza of Honduras to take the ball away from Beausejour near the touchline.
15': Honduras get the ball through the box for the first time, but it's not threatening.
14': Adrian Healey informs us that there is an iPhone app that makes the vuvuzela sound, just in case you're trying to figure out a way to be a complete asshole to everyone you know.
13': Valdivia overhits a slotted pass into the area and Beausejour can't catch up with it. Again, we've seen this a lot, although I'm not sure you can blame the ball when the pass is along the ground.
12': Honduras start to come forward, then lose the ball after kicking it around the midfield. They look pretty bad so far.
11': Another long ball by Chile goes well past its intended target. Honduras gives it back to them rather quickly.
10': Fact of the day: Chile calls their coach "The Madman."
9': A couple of nice backheel passes between the Chileans, but the ball goes out off Honduras. Seconds later, Vidal fires a shot from distance that Valladares juggles, but no other Chilean was nearby.
6': Chile gets a free kick from the right side of the field about ten yards out. They're dominating the game early; Honduras hasn't had the ball for more than about 15 seconds at a time. The kick fails, but Chile get a shot on goal out of it, albeit a weak one.
4': Chile gets its first corner but nothing much comes of it. Honduras attempts to break, but Carlos Carmona trips the Honduran and gets a yellow card for his trouble.
3': Fernandez comes close to putting the free kick in; the crowd cheers as it looks for a second like it goes in.
2': Valdivia is challenged by Wilson Palacios and goes down clutching his face after being nudged in the back. Oh good.
1': Chile starts with a long ball that, of course, overruns everyone and goes out for a Honduran goal kick. If the Jabulani is really having an effect, this is it, for me.
6:30 am: The captains greet each other warmly. ESPN shows us the formations; Chile appears to be in a 4-3-3, while Honduras looks to be in something like a 4-2-3-1.
6:28 am: Let's do this.
FULL TIME: Chile have won it 1-0. Well deserved, certainly, but Honduras were extremely poor and Chile should have scored more goals. Fortunately for them, the most likely situation in which GD will matter for them would be up against Switzerland, and the Swiss are not exactly known for their high-powered offense.
94': Gonzalez pushes the ball to goal again, and the whistle blows as Valladares collects it.
93': Honduras take a quick corner and nothing comes of it. Chile break and have 4-on-3 for a minute before Gonzalez curls it over the bar.
92': Just like that, it's finally given: three minutes. Meaning Honduras has one more.
92': Was it ever announced how much added time there was?
91': Gonzalez fires wide left. Honduras might want to try getting the ball at some point.
91': Harkes notes that we can't totally judge Chile based on this because "it is against Honduras." Yeah, pretty much.
90': Welcome takes a shot from the top of the box but it's not especially close. Honduras have about three minutes to somehow find an equalizer.
89': Fernandez is unmarked at the top of the box but the ball runs off his foot.
88': Sanchez goes down under contact, looks up at the ref, winces and grabs himself, then looks up again to make sure there was a whistle. This is why people hate soccer, you guys. Knock it off.
87': Valdivia finally comes off for a sub.
86': Healey and Harkes invoke New Zealand's late goal to draw Slovakia. Honduras, inspired by this pep talk, get the ball into the box but Bravo collects easily.
84': A Honduran fan in the crowd clasps her hands together and rocks back and forth. Sorry, lady; Chile's fans already prayed and you can't both win.
83': A header from Medel is just wide, but he's offsides anyway. Chile have hardly dropped back, possibly because Honduras have never shown a reason to worry about their attack.
81': Chile have more than 30 touches in the Honduran box and Honduras have one in the Chilean box, according to Healey. Sounds about right. Chile actually make a substitution.
80': Anyway, that would be 48 years between World Cup wins for Chile, which would pass the old record of 44 years by the United States. Sanchez goes for goal but his shot from 20+ yards goes well wide.
79': I don't think Honduras has spent more than a few minutes even in the Chilean half since the break.
78': Honduras put in Walter Martinez as their final sub. ESPN lists him at 5'5".
77': A free kick bounces around but Valladares is able to collect.
75': Chile almost score again, but Valladares makes a save, Sanchez appears to handle the rebound, and then Valdivia puts it in but is offsides.
75': Chile hasn't won a World Cup game since 1962, the year they hosted.
73': Usually this stuff evens up a bit, but with less than 20 minutes to play, Chile still has two-thirds of the possession. Chile has another couple chances, but a shot is blocked and Isla's header goes well wide.
72': Valdivia limps off but doesn't seem to be getting substituted just yet. Honduras attempt to build on the man advantage but a header into the box is collected by Bravo. Still don't think Honduras have touched the ball in the Chilean box.
71': I still don't think Honduras touched that one in the box. The ball deflects off Ponce's elbow, but no handball call, which I think is right. Jorge Valdivia picks up a random cramp and we get a break in the action.
70': After a nice move, Palacios wins a corner.
69': Chile almost score again but for a last-second tackle by Hendry Thomas. Honduras almost touch it in the Chilean box 30 seconds later, but it's cleared.
68': Healey and Harkes talk about the US-Slovenia game, and how Slovenia's win over Algeria makes the US feel they have to beat Slovenia. Sure, but they really should have felt that way already. You don't want to go into a game like that thinking a draw is cool. In a related story, I had a dream last night that Slovenia won all three games in the group. Let's hope it was something I ate.
67': Honduras control the ball for about 20 seconds and then lose it out of bounds. I could probably just copy and paste this.
65': English football-ism: "asking questions." As in, "Chile have been asking most of the questions today." The main question being "Man, how much does Honduras suck?"
64': Valladares makes an incredible save on a header from about six feet. Ponce is kicking himself that he couldn't bang that in.
63': Welcome flops goofily by stumbling backwards over a Chilean but gets the foul call. Does this count as getting into the Chilean box? Honduras gets right to the edge but it's an offsides call.
62': Taking bets on the next time Honduras actually gets the ball into the Chilean box. Meanwhile, Sanchez makes a run and then rolls it just wide left of the Honduran goal.
61': Not only is Chile much more threatening, their attacks are a lot prettier.
60': Pavon is substituted, with Georgie Welcome coming on. That's a fun name.
58': Healey says of a Chilean player, "It's a real mystery why he hasn't reproduced his South American form in Europe." I don't even know who he's talking about, but I promise you it is not that much of a mystery.
57': Sanchez gets stepped on in the box, but the ref misses it. It was probably unintentional anyway.
56': Nothing doing on the header, but Chile regroup yet again.
55': Sanchez abuses Espinoza and then gets taken down, earning a free kick from the right side, maybe 24 yards out.
54': Healey references Honduras' MLS connections yet again. Given how bad they've looked, I probably wouldn't keep talking about that.
53': Valladares must have an awful goal kick, as Figueroa takes another.
52': Another good chance from Chile, though it's eventually called for offsides as it falls to the last man.
50': Chile take the corner shot but can't fire the ball through a scrum. Pavon ends up on the ground in the box, apparently hurting himself on the clearance. Chile are forced to start over from back in their end.
48': Beausejour almost has an open shot at goal, but Figueroa just gets in the way with a challenge that sends Beausejour sprawling. There's going to be a penalty at some point if this keeps up. Sanchez then gets the ball taken away in the box but wins a corner for Chile.
47': Honduras seem to want a penalty, but Medel does get a touch on the ball. Very risky challenge but it paid off, as another Honduran attack is stifled.
46': Honduras, like New Zealand, are making their second appearance and first since 1982. Right now they look a lot worse than New Zealand.
HALF: I make it back from the shower with a couple minutes to spare, as the Chilean team comes back out to the field. Are soccer halftimes short or do I just spend that much time in the shower? On second thought, don't answer that.
HALF: Certainly a deserved 1-0 lead for Chile. For CONCACAF's sake, I'd love to see Honduras do anything in the second half, as the team that showed up in the first half is going out of this tournament without a point.
45': Not a bad kick from Nunez; Bravo has to tip it over. After the ensuing corner is deflected away, the first half whistle blows. Figures that it would happen right as Honduras was getting anything going.
45': A goal kick is taken by someone other than a goalie, as Figueroa boots it out for Honduras. Once again, I don't think I've ever seen that happen before. Honduras end up with a free kick 30ish yards out.
43': A graphic shows us that Chile has a 63-37 possession edge, and Healey confirms that Honduras have not touched the ball in the Chilean box yet. Chile get into Honduras' box again, and Honduras gets lucky with an inadvertent handball that is not called.
42': Honduras yet again gets something going, but can't get it into the box as a pass in Pavon's direction falls short and Chile goes back the other way. Valdivia springs Beausejour but Honduras clear his cross for a throw-in.
40': Beausejour's father is Haitian, and was in Haiti for the earthquake. Lots of earthquakes in that family.
39': Nunez takes a shot from outside the box, but it's not particularly close. Honduras have yet to really get a good chance.
38': A deep ball, but the Chilean forward is just a little offsides.
37': Chile nearly score another. Honduras' defense is starting to break down a bit.
34': GOAL! The ball is sent across the face of goal, and Beausejour is credited with it although the replay makes it look like Mendoza, the Honduran defender, had a lot to do with the ball going in. Still, Chile deserve the lead here.
33': Wilson Palacios is booked despite not seeming to do anything. The ref is not having the greatest of games, it must be said.
32': Chile break, then are stopped; Honduras break in response and are stopped; Chile break again. Somewhat exciting even if none of the breaks do so much as get into the area.
30': The South African fans have organized some sort of vuvuzela-playing conga line.
29': Ramon Nunez of Honduras dives horribly and gets the foul call. He sort of looks like a young Sammy Sosa.
27': Chile kick the ball out of bounds while Pavon rolls around on the ground. After throwing it in, Honduras look for a second like they aren't just going to give it back, which I don't think I've ever seen. The Chilean defender blocks the ball and then Honduras push it to Chile.
25': US defender Jonathan Bornstein is apparently a huge fan favorite in Honduras because he scored the goal against Costa Rica that allowed Honduras to qualify for the World Cup ahead of the Costa Ricans. Meanwhile, Vidal blasts a header over the goal off a corner.
23': Adrian Healey says the game has "the aroma of goals about it" despite being so far goalless. I guess?
22': Claudio Bravo grabs the corner easily and then sets up an attack with a long punt. Valdivia eventually gets a shot off that deflects out for a Chilean corner. Sanchez falls down while attempt to shoot from 20 yards and the ball goes out for a goal kick.
20': Honduras again manage to organize a counterattack and earn a corner after a long shot goes off the back of a Chilean defender.
19': Chile's Fernandez gets booked for a slightly rash challenge.
18': ...and nothing doing. It's a bit high/long. Honduras get on the break and then Pavon finds himself wide open about 25 yards from goal, but he hits it weakly wide left.
17': Chile win a corner...
16': Good tackle by Mendoza of Honduras to take the ball away from Beausejour near the touchline.
15': Honduras get the ball through the box for the first time, but it's not threatening.
14': Adrian Healey informs us that there is an iPhone app that makes the vuvuzela sound, just in case you're trying to figure out a way to be a complete asshole to everyone you know.
13': Valdivia overhits a slotted pass into the area and Beausejour can't catch up with it. Again, we've seen this a lot, although I'm not sure you can blame the ball when the pass is along the ground.
12': Honduras start to come forward, then lose the ball after kicking it around the midfield. They look pretty bad so far.
11': Another long ball by Chile goes well past its intended target. Honduras gives it back to them rather quickly.
10': Fact of the day: Chile calls their coach "The Madman."
9': A couple of nice backheel passes between the Chileans, but the ball goes out off Honduras. Seconds later, Vidal fires a shot from distance that Valladares juggles, but no other Chilean was nearby.
6': Chile gets a free kick from the right side of the field about ten yards out. They're dominating the game early; Honduras hasn't had the ball for more than about 15 seconds at a time. The kick fails, but Chile get a shot on goal out of it, albeit a weak one.
4': Chile gets its first corner but nothing much comes of it. Honduras attempts to break, but Carlos Carmona trips the Honduran and gets a yellow card for his trouble.
3': Fernandez comes close to putting the free kick in; the crowd cheers as it looks for a second like it goes in.
2': Valdivia is challenged by Wilson Palacios and goes down clutching his face after being nudged in the back. Oh good.
1': Chile starts with a long ball that, of course, overruns everyone and goes out for a Honduran goal kick. If the Jabulani is really having an effect, this is it, for me.
6:30 am: The captains greet each other warmly. ESPN shows us the formations; Chile appears to be in a 4-3-3, while Honduras looks to be in something like a 4-2-3-1.
6:28 am: Let's do this.
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