World Cup 2010: Day Eleven

Today was the final day of early morning games (6:30 Central kickoffs), and while this means that my ability to watch the rest of the tournament will be restricted to weekends and my ability to slip out of work for a couple hours if it's not that busy, I'm also kind of relieved. I could barely stay awake for Portugal-North Korea, although to be fair I had very little investment in that game and it was only exciting if you like goals and the last time you'll see eleven North Koreans alive.

Portugal 7-0 North Korea

Biggest blowout since Germany 8-0 Saudi Arabia in 2002, which I also watched live. Amazingly, this game was only 1-0 at halftime (Germany was already up 4-0 at the break), but the Koreans fell apart in the second half. Tommy Smyth on ESPN Radio speculated that the Koreans were simply not a very fit team and had expended most of the effort reserves they had in holding Brazil to a 2-1 win. Portugal got into the North Korean box pretty much whenever they wanted to in the second half, scoring all of their goals from close range. My particular favorite was Cristiano Ronaldo's goal, his first for Portugal since 2008 - he tried to flip it over the onrushing keeper, and ended up bouncing the ball off his head and neck back down to his feet, at which point he poked it into the open net. Then he just had this look on his face like, "That's how I break my streak of not scoring? Okay." It almost made me like him until I remembered he's a whiny flopper.

Chile 1-0 Switzerland

Another bad game for the refs. I want to like Chile, because I think they're an interesting team that has the potential to surprise in the knockouts, but they're such awful divers that it really just makes me hate them. Switzerland's Valon Behrami made some contact with Arturo Vidal, and Vidal made an absolute meal of it; the ref was too far away to know how BS it was and ran over with the straight red. While it's obvious that there has to be a way to maintain discipline in games, I think that the straight red card should be reserved for the roughest, most deliberate of challenges. Some guys bring it out far too easily (Tim Cahill's was one such) considering the impact it's likely to have on a game. You basically cannot win if you're down to ten men before halftime. Given that it still took Chile until the 75th minute to score, you'd have to say it would have made a difference in this game.

Spain 2-0 Honduras

Another convincing-yet-unconvincing performance from Spain, but at least they got the win this time. David Villa scored twice, one a remarkable individual performance in which he dribbled into the area from 30 yards out and fired home while falling over, but also missed a penalty kick by wrong-footing the goalie and then pushing the ball just right of the post. I feel the same way about Spain right now as I feel about the Netherlands - I believe they're good and I think they can do well, but I'd like to see a little more out of them than I have to this point. At least Spain were tested by Switzerland; the Dutch could be in for a rude awakening if they suddenly have to face Italy in the round of 16.

Speaking of which, now that we're down to the third set of games only, let's quickly go over each group. I know I did the first six yesterday. We're doing them again. I'll give my actual picks this time to sweeten the deal.

Group A: Mexico and Uruguay both swear they aren't going to play for a draw. This is good news for France, or at least it would be if they weren't fighting, so maybe it's good news for South Africa. It's unlikely that the combined margins are going to turn over the goal differential that exists, however. I say Mexico and Uruguay go through.

Group B: With only a Greece side that I really think are terrible standing in their way, I think Argentina are taking all nine points and topping the group. Assuming they romp, second place will go to the winner of South Korea/Nigeria, but Nigeria has to win by two goals to overturn the existing goal differential. In other words, go with South Korea.

Group C: I'm terrified for Wednesday, of course, but hopeful that the US can get the win they need to go through, in whatever fashion. You also get the feeling that England will suddenly show up and torch Slovenia, but then I was sure they'd beat Algeria and look how that turned out. I still say US and England make it out.

Group D: Ghana lead the group and are pretty much Africa's last, best hope. But they get Germany, which I'm thinking means they desperately need Serbia to lose. Ghana's GD is +1, but if they lose that reduces at least to zero, which is where Serbia's sits, so a draw by Serbia and a Ghana loss by more than a goal risks dumping Ghana from the tournament. On the other hand, Australia's GD is so woeful that while they can tie Ghana on points with a win and a Ghana loss, Ghana would almost certainly go through anyway on GD. My pick here is Germany and Serbia - sorry, Africa.

Group E: The Netherlands are through, so it's a winner-take-all match between Denmark and Japan. Japan go through in the event of a draw, so expect Denmark to push for a win. I'm going to go out on a slight limb here and say the Danes pull it off, but it should be a fairly exciting game, although if Japan go into a defensive shell maybe a bit less so.

Group F: Paraguay need only draw New Zealand to advance, so they seem like a fairly safe bet - while I like the Kiwis and would love to see them move on, it's pretty hard to imagine lightning striking three times. While Italy have struggled, I still think they're going to beat Slovakia and advance as well.

Group G: Brazil and Portugal are going to go through after Portugal hung that 7-spot on the North Koreans, putting fully nine goals between themselves and the Ivory Coast. While the Ivorians will probably beat North Korea, they would need to do so by five goals and hope that Brazil beat Portugal by five goals... and as unlikely as that is with both teams trying, it's even more unlikely when Brazil could very well be resting some of its stars for the knockouts.

Group H: Group C is probably the most interesting group on the final day, but this one is up there. Chile and Spain are the likely bets - but if Chile beat Spain, the Swiss can go through with a win or draw. I think Spain will beat Chile and both will advance, however.

What second round matchups are we looking at if things go down the way I expect them to?

Uruguay vs. South Korea
Mexico vs. Argentina
USA vs. Serbia
England vs. Germany
Netherlands vs. Italy
Paraguay vs. Denmark
Brazil vs. Chile
Spain vs. Portugal

Holy crap is that an exciting-looking second round. Mexico/Argentina is a rematch of a great second round game from 2006; England/Germany is a massive historical rivalry (and rematch of the 1966 final); Netherlands/Italy matches two major European powers; Spain/Portugal does the same and they're neighbors to boot; Brazil/Chile is an intriguing continental matchup (although the Brazilians won both games during qualifying somewhat handily). If things turn out like this, we are in for a pretty great knockout phase.