Ghana 2-1 USA (a.e.t.)
What, really, can you say? The US were burned by everything that plagued them in this tournament: tendency to give up the early goal; inability to finish good chances; shaky back line; tendency to allow the other team to control midfield possession. Ghana - in spite of their shameful diving and time-wasting in the second half of extra time, as if they lacked confidence in their ability to see the game out honestly - outhustled, outmuscled, and outplayed the US, barring about a 15-minute stretch between halftime and Donovan's penalty equalizer.
So who or what is to blame?
1) The letdown
After John Isner won his marathon three-day match by taking the fifth set 70-68, he promptly exited the tournament, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the next round. This wasn't surprising, of course. Similarly, it's not totally surprising that the US couldn't pull this one out - first of all, there are only so many times you can go down and be forced to chase the game relentlessly, but the team were also coming off what must have been an exhausting (both emotionally and physically) game with Algeria just to make the knockouts. Ghana only had two days' rest too, but they barely showed up for their game with Germany, knowing that they didn't have to play their hardest to advance. For all the talk of how the Americans would benefit from their superior fitness, they simply looked spent by the middle of extra time. At some point you just can't chase a game any more. I don't know that I would have liked them from the spot even had they avoided conceding Gyan's goal; they had nothing behind their kicks in the second extra session.
2) The lineup
Facing a lineup that worked - Altidore and Dempsey up high, Feilhaber and Edu in the middle with Donovan and Bradley - coach Bob Bradley rather oddly decided to start Ricardo Clark and Robbie Findley in spite of the fact that neither had done anything in the tournament so far. Clark's error contributed to Ghana's opening goal, and after picking up a yellow card as well he was subbed off after 30 minutes for Edu. Findley had one good shot at goal and delivered a ball straight into the keeper's lap, then was gone for Feilhaber at halftime. Dempsey moved back up top and subsequently drew the tying penalty shot. Credit to Bradley for knowing when he was wrong... but why did he choose to go that way in the first place? My assumption is that he figured Clark and Findley would be fresh legs and someone had to be fresh after the Algeria game. But Clark and Findley couldn't pull their weight earlier in the tournament. Suddenly throwing them back into a must-win game never made sense.
3) The back line
While he did make some good plays, Jay DeMerit struggled once more on both of Ghana's goals. I have no idea what his health status is, but you can tell the team really missed Oguchi Onyewu, whose big, physical presence might have been better equipped to go shoulder to shoulder with Asamoah Gyan, who simply outmuscled Carlos Bocanegra for the extra time winner.
4) The midfield
Ghana mostly seemed to do what they wanted, when they wanted. As I noted above, they were the better team for all but about 15 minutes, and this started in the midfield, where the Ghanaians closed fast on the US and didn't allow much space. The US, by comparison, gave Ghana loads of room to run, as if scared to get passed in a foot race. The American inability to pass crisply also came back to haunt them. Michael Bradley alone had at least three soft giveaways, and he actually played fairly well. Ghana were also much better at keeping their shape as a side; there was always someone out wide for Ghana, sometimes coming into surprise view of the camera at the near side because the US had themselves been so packed into the middle.
5) The lack of a killer offensive threat
Donovan and Dempsey are both very good players, but neither is really a striker by trade. Altidore had a decent Cup, I thought, but you have to say: he should probably be scoring goals. Right? Findley's inability to finish was embarrassing and as far as I'm concerned he should never play for this team again, at least until he's more seasoned in international play - I mean, the guy doesn't even have ten caps. Brian Ching isn't exactly Carlos Tevez and I know he's older, but why wasn't he on the squad? Bottom line, the US need to figure out a way to manufacture a great striker. Maybe a fully fit Altidore matures into that role, but he wasn't ready for it yet. Maybe when Charlie Davies returns, he's that guy. You have to say he was probably missed given the general struggles of the US to put the ball in the back of net from the striker position.
All in all, a devastating disappointment for American soccer after Wednesday's high. Where do we go from here? CONCACAF qualifying doesn't even start until 2012, and the key matches likely won't be played until 2013. There's another Gold Cup next year, but the US didn't even take the last one seriously, sending a third-string team to get obliterated by Mexico in the final. (Although I guess you'd have to be fair and note that the US A-team had been in the Confederations Cup just a few weeks earlier and clearly wasn't going to play both.) The MLS might get a little boost out of this. I don't know.
What I do know is we've got a long way to go. And in the next four years, it's time to find some better defenders, it's time to work on not conceding early, and it's time to show the rest of the world that we have the talent to compete with its best. American soccer seems to surge forward by the year; it's time to really take that next step. The country has shown it will be ready to respond.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
World Cup 2010: Round of Sixteen Predictions
Saturday, 6/26/10, 9 am CDT: Uruguay vs. South Korea
There seems to be some consensus that Uruguay was one of the more impressive teams in the first round. Having not managed to catch any of their three games - one of the few teams of whom that was true - I'm not a real position to disagree, but I would note that they drew 0-0 with France and beat Mexico 1-0, both pretty tepid/standard results. Yes, they beat South Africa 3-0, but South Africa had a man sent off in that game and, their other results notwithstanding, were one of the five weakest sides in the competition. Of course, I can't say any better for South Korea, who looked outstanding in beating Greece in their first game but were subsequently thumped by Argentina and held by a Nigeria side that missed at least two sitters. Plus this tournament isn't being played in South Korea.
Prediction: Uruguay 2, South Korea 1
Saturday, 6/26/10, 1:30 pm CDT: United States vs. Ghana
As you might guess, this game terrifies me. On the one hand, I feel fairly confident that Ghana will have trouble scoring - they've got two goals in this tournament and both were on penalty kicks resulting from handballs in the box. But they're a young, physical team, and the game comes on just two days' rest for the US (for Ghana as well, of course), and - most crucially - Ghana are the sole African side left and will probably have the full force of the crowd behind them barring a few thousand American fans. It's also worth noting that the US haven't exactly had an easy time scoring, although if they ever started banging home all the chances they were ringing up against Algeria I don't know if anyone could beat them. As usual, the key will be not giving up an early goal. Just don't touch any balls in the box, people who aren't Tim Howard.
Prediction: United States 2, Ghana 0 (*gulp*)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 9:00 am CDT: England vs. Germany
Not clear which team will show up for either side. Did England put it together against Slovenia, or were they just facing a side which had expended most of its energy clawing to the top of its group? Is Germany the team that destroyed Australia or the team that limped through games with Serbia and Ghana? England had better make sure its defense is up to snuff, as Miroslav Klose is rested and no doubt ready to go. England's offense, meanwhile, may still be a bit suspect if Wayne Rooney doesn't wake up soon.
Prediction: Germany 1, England 1 (Germany 5-3 on penalties)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Argentina vs. Mexico
The Mexicans gave Argentina quite a game four years ago before falling, but I'm just not convinced this Mexican team is all that good. They barely drew 1-1 with South Africa - admittedly in front of a vocal home crowd in the tournament's first match - then coasted past an imploding France before only sort of showing up to face Uruguay. Have they really had to seriously perform yet in this tournament? Argentina hasn't been much tested, of course, and their defense can be suspect, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to score on Mexico pretty much whenever they want.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Mexico 1
Monday, 6/28/10, 9:00 am CDT: Netherlands vs. Slovakia
Slovakia's 3-2 win over Italy was a revelation, but after lackluster performances in a 1-1 draw with New Zealand and 2-0 loss to Paraguay, are they really that good or did they just catch lightning in a bottle? (Or, perhaps, are Italy just that bad?) The Dutch haven't really been tested yet, but it's a big advantage for them to have what amounts to a tune-up game to start the knockouts, rather than their battle with Portugal from 2006.
Prediction: Netherlands 3, Slovakia 0
Monday, 6/28/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Brazil vs. Chile
Based on what we've seen from Chile in the tournament, this should be good, right? Well, until you realize that Chile have actually only scored three goals and were helped greatly by games against two of the tournament's weakest offenses in Switzerland and Honduras. Also, Brazil beat Chile handily in qualifying, twice, both home and away.
Prediction: Brazil 4, Chile 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 9:00 am CDT: Paraguay vs. Japan
Paraguay looked decent in the group stage, but don't sleep on Japan after their 3-1 demolition of Denmark. Paraguay have yet to face a potent offense, and while no one would have called Japan that three days ago, their ability to strike on setpieces cannot be questioned, and they'll be tough to beat if they get a lead.
Prediction: Japan 2, Paraguay 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Spain vs. Portugal
Fitting that the marquee matchup of the round of 16 should also be its final game. Unfortunate that it falls in the middle of a workday. Portugal are a total enigma at this point; they played to a 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast, ostensibly because the two teams were feeling each other out, and then to a 0-0 draw with Brazil, ostensibly because they had no need to go for the win, and in between that they rolled up a 7-0 win, but against the worst team in the field. So can this team score goals when it's not facing North Korea? And what about Spain, which won its test against Chile but didn't always look comfortable in doing so? I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go to penalty kicks because both sides will be terrified of losing so early and will play defensively, although for the sake of fans everywhere I hope I'm wrong. Don't worry - I usually am with stuff like this.
Prediction: Spain 2, Portugal 1 (a.e.t.)
There seems to be some consensus that Uruguay was one of the more impressive teams in the first round. Having not managed to catch any of their three games - one of the few teams of whom that was true - I'm not a real position to disagree, but I would note that they drew 0-0 with France and beat Mexico 1-0, both pretty tepid/standard results. Yes, they beat South Africa 3-0, but South Africa had a man sent off in that game and, their other results notwithstanding, were one of the five weakest sides in the competition. Of course, I can't say any better for South Korea, who looked outstanding in beating Greece in their first game but were subsequently thumped by Argentina and held by a Nigeria side that missed at least two sitters. Plus this tournament isn't being played in South Korea.
Prediction: Uruguay 2, South Korea 1
Saturday, 6/26/10, 1:30 pm CDT: United States vs. Ghana
As you might guess, this game terrifies me. On the one hand, I feel fairly confident that Ghana will have trouble scoring - they've got two goals in this tournament and both were on penalty kicks resulting from handballs in the box. But they're a young, physical team, and the game comes on just two days' rest for the US (for Ghana as well, of course), and - most crucially - Ghana are the sole African side left and will probably have the full force of the crowd behind them barring a few thousand American fans. It's also worth noting that the US haven't exactly had an easy time scoring, although if they ever started banging home all the chances they were ringing up against Algeria I don't know if anyone could beat them. As usual, the key will be not giving up an early goal. Just don't touch any balls in the box, people who aren't Tim Howard.
Prediction: United States 2, Ghana 0 (*gulp*)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 9:00 am CDT: England vs. Germany
Not clear which team will show up for either side. Did England put it together against Slovenia, or were they just facing a side which had expended most of its energy clawing to the top of its group? Is Germany the team that destroyed Australia or the team that limped through games with Serbia and Ghana? England had better make sure its defense is up to snuff, as Miroslav Klose is rested and no doubt ready to go. England's offense, meanwhile, may still be a bit suspect if Wayne Rooney doesn't wake up soon.
Prediction: Germany 1, England 1 (Germany 5-3 on penalties)
Sunday, 6/27/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Argentina vs. Mexico
The Mexicans gave Argentina quite a game four years ago before falling, but I'm just not convinced this Mexican team is all that good. They barely drew 1-1 with South Africa - admittedly in front of a vocal home crowd in the tournament's first match - then coasted past an imploding France before only sort of showing up to face Uruguay. Have they really had to seriously perform yet in this tournament? Argentina hasn't been much tested, of course, and their defense can be suspect, but I find it hard to believe they won't be able to score on Mexico pretty much whenever they want.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Mexico 1
Monday, 6/28/10, 9:00 am CDT: Netherlands vs. Slovakia
Slovakia's 3-2 win over Italy was a revelation, but after lackluster performances in a 1-1 draw with New Zealand and 2-0 loss to Paraguay, are they really that good or did they just catch lightning in a bottle? (Or, perhaps, are Italy just that bad?) The Dutch haven't really been tested yet, but it's a big advantage for them to have what amounts to a tune-up game to start the knockouts, rather than their battle with Portugal from 2006.
Prediction: Netherlands 3, Slovakia 0
Monday, 6/28/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Brazil vs. Chile
Based on what we've seen from Chile in the tournament, this should be good, right? Well, until you realize that Chile have actually only scored three goals and were helped greatly by games against two of the tournament's weakest offenses in Switzerland and Honduras. Also, Brazil beat Chile handily in qualifying, twice, both home and away.
Prediction: Brazil 4, Chile 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 9:00 am CDT: Paraguay vs. Japan
Paraguay looked decent in the group stage, but don't sleep on Japan after their 3-1 demolition of Denmark. Paraguay have yet to face a potent offense, and while no one would have called Japan that three days ago, their ability to strike on setpieces cannot be questioned, and they'll be tough to beat if they get a lead.
Prediction: Japan 2, Paraguay 1
Tuesday, 6/29/10, 1:30 pm CDT: Spain vs. Portugal
Fitting that the marquee matchup of the round of 16 should also be its final game. Unfortunate that it falls in the middle of a workday. Portugal are a total enigma at this point; they played to a 0-0 draw with Ivory Coast, ostensibly because the two teams were feeling each other out, and then to a 0-0 draw with Brazil, ostensibly because they had no need to go for the win, and in between that they rolled up a 7-0 win, but against the worst team in the field. So can this team score goals when it's not facing North Korea? And what about Spain, which won its test against Chile but didn't always look comfortable in doing so? I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go to penalty kicks because both sides will be terrified of losing so early and will play defensively, although for the sake of fans everywhere I hope I'm wrong. Don't worry - I usually am with stuff like this.
Prediction: Spain 2, Portugal 1 (a.e.t.)
Friday, June 25, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Fifteen
The first round concluded today, and did so in expected fashion. Let's wrap it up quick-like.
Ivory Coast 3-0 North Korea
Not a shock. Ivory Coast scored two goals in the first twenty minutes, spurring a bit of "Maybe they can actually score nine goals!" talk before things settled down. The Elephants go home despite probably being the best team in Africa, but is anyone really surprised? Their group contained Brazil and Portugal, for crying out loud.
Brazil 0-0 Portugal
Sorry to anyone who was expecting a good game, but once Portugal loaded up on goals against North Korea you should have known better. Weird but true: Portugal's three games included a 7-0 win and two scoreless draws. What can we expect out of them going forward?
Switzerland 0-0 Honduras
Whatever.
Spain 2-1 Chile
Villa's goal: remarkable. We've talked about Maicon, Quagliarella, and whoever else, but understand this: Villa hit a clearance first-time into the net from 45 yards away down the left side. It's funny, Spain losing was the huge story of the first set of games, but they ended up progressing quite comfortably, while France and Italy - world powers that drew their opening games - ended up becoming the real embarrassments of the tournament.
Ivory Coast 3-0 North Korea
Not a shock. Ivory Coast scored two goals in the first twenty minutes, spurring a bit of "Maybe they can actually score nine goals!" talk before things settled down. The Elephants go home despite probably being the best team in Africa, but is anyone really surprised? Their group contained Brazil and Portugal, for crying out loud.
Brazil 0-0 Portugal
Sorry to anyone who was expecting a good game, but once Portugal loaded up on goals against North Korea you should have known better. Weird but true: Portugal's three games included a 7-0 win and two scoreless draws. What can we expect out of them going forward?
Switzerland 0-0 Honduras
Whatever.
Spain 2-1 Chile
Villa's goal: remarkable. We've talked about Maicon, Quagliarella, and whoever else, but understand this: Villa hit a clearance first-time into the net from 45 yards away down the left side. It's funny, Spain losing was the huge story of the first set of games, but they ended up progressing quite comfortably, while France and Italy - world powers that drew their opening games - ended up becoming the real embarrassments of the tournament.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Fourteen
Paraguay 0-0 New Zealand
New Zealand's plan was pretty clearly to put the game on lockdown and try to nick a goal late, which was virtually the only way they were going through (a draw would only have helped in the event of an Italy draw, but Italy would have gone through on goals scored in that event). And it almost worked, except for the fact that New Zealand have no offense whatsoever, managing just four shots in the game and none on target. They exit the World Cup without a loss, the first team to do so since Belgium in 1998 (which was also the last year that a team managed to progress without winning a game). The Kiwis can hold their heads high; as the 78th-ranked team in the world, nothing was expected out of them, and yet they didn't lose a game and didn't finish last in their group.
Slovakia 3-2 Italy
No, that honor belonged to the Italians. The defending champs bowed out, not in as ignominious a manner as the French in 2002 - at least Italy scored a few times - but in pretty ugly fashion. The Italians had not given up three goals in a World Cup match since losing 4-1 to Brazil in the 1970 final; three goals matched their high allowed in an entire group stage since 1986. The defense was never all there for them, and while Fabio Quagliarella chipped in what would probably be the goal of the tournament so far if not for Maicon's physics-defying strike against North Korea, the offense was clearly lacking overall. All they needed was to beat New Zealand, for crying out loud. Instead, they're going home.
Netherlands 2-1 Cameroon
Whatever. This was a friendly.
Japan 3-1 Denmark
A fairly shocking result, as the Japanese had shown very little inclination to score goals prior to this point in the tournament. Keisuke Honda and Yasuhito Endo both struck from free kicks, the first time since Yugoslavia drubbed Zaire 9-0 in 1974 that one team had put in two free kick goals in the same match, and Denmark were just lost. Even the goal they grabbed back came on a penalty kick - and even then, it was on the rebound of the kick, which had been saved at first. Paraguay had better not sleep on Japan; it suddenly looks like they can make some noise.
Tomorrow! The shocking conclusion to Group G. Will Ivory Coast stay alive? (No.) Will Brazil and Portugal really care who wins their game? (Doubtful.) Will all the North Koreans defect after the game to avoid execution? (Maybe.) Plus, the legitimately interesting finish to Group H, which will most likely see Spain either go out or top the group. We're due for an awesome round of 16 match between either Brazil and Spain (top two teams in the world) or Spain and Portugal (2 and 3 teams, plus Iberian neighbors). With all due respect to Switzerland, I think I'd prefer it if they didn't deny us that.
New Zealand's plan was pretty clearly to put the game on lockdown and try to nick a goal late, which was virtually the only way they were going through (a draw would only have helped in the event of an Italy draw, but Italy would have gone through on goals scored in that event). And it almost worked, except for the fact that New Zealand have no offense whatsoever, managing just four shots in the game and none on target. They exit the World Cup without a loss, the first team to do so since Belgium in 1998 (which was also the last year that a team managed to progress without winning a game). The Kiwis can hold their heads high; as the 78th-ranked team in the world, nothing was expected out of them, and yet they didn't lose a game and didn't finish last in their group.
Slovakia 3-2 Italy
No, that honor belonged to the Italians. The defending champs bowed out, not in as ignominious a manner as the French in 2002 - at least Italy scored a few times - but in pretty ugly fashion. The Italians had not given up three goals in a World Cup match since losing 4-1 to Brazil in the 1970 final; three goals matched their high allowed in an entire group stage since 1986. The defense was never all there for them, and while Fabio Quagliarella chipped in what would probably be the goal of the tournament so far if not for Maicon's physics-defying strike against North Korea, the offense was clearly lacking overall. All they needed was to beat New Zealand, for crying out loud. Instead, they're going home.
Netherlands 2-1 Cameroon
Whatever. This was a friendly.
Japan 3-1 Denmark
A fairly shocking result, as the Japanese had shown very little inclination to score goals prior to this point in the tournament. Keisuke Honda and Yasuhito Endo both struck from free kicks, the first time since Yugoslavia drubbed Zaire 9-0 in 1974 that one team had put in two free kick goals in the same match, and Denmark were just lost. Even the goal they grabbed back came on a penalty kick - and even then, it was on the rebound of the kick, which had been saved at first. Paraguay had better not sleep on Japan; it suddenly looks like they can make some noise.
Tomorrow! The shocking conclusion to Group G. Will Ivory Coast stay alive? (No.) Will Brazil and Portugal really care who wins their game? (Doubtful.) Will all the North Koreans defect after the game to avoid execution? (Maybe.) Plus, the legitimately interesting finish to Group H, which will most likely see Spain either go out or top the group. We're due for an awesome round of 16 match between either Brazil and Spain (top two teams in the world) or Spain and Portugal (2 and 3 teams, plus Iberian neighbors). With all due respect to Switzerland, I think I'd prefer it if they didn't deny us that.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Landon Opportunity
USA 1-0 Algeria
What a game. I must confess, I came very close to turning it off at various points in the second half. The Americans couldn't buy a goal, it seemed, and as the minutes dragged on I felt worse and worse, a bundle of nerves, feeling almost physically ill. The worst part was that every five minutes or so, the tension seemed ready to erupt into joy and relief, and then it never quite happened, which only made that tension worse. Finally it came, in injury time, as Tim Howard made a save and flung the ball to a streaking Landon Donovan, who found Jozy Altidore, who crossed it to Clint Dempsey, who once again was denied by the keeper... but Donovan, running in on goal, cleaned up the rebound and then was off to the left corner flag to be mobbed.
The US topped their group for the first time since 1930 and won a game they were not leading for the first time ever at the World Cup. It's tempting to ascribe great things to the US team following this win, but I think we should probably keep in mind that Algeria didn't score a single goal at the World Cup and nearly got yet another early goal were it not for the crossbar. The defense played well overall, I thought, or at least better than they did against Slovenia, but I don't know if this is the defense of a team that can really make a run in the knockouts. If a team that doesn't score goals can create 19 shots (even if only four were on goal), what will Ghana do? What would (potentially) Diego Forlan and Uruguay do? It's easy to look at the side of the bracket the US are on and salivate - we avoided Germany, we avoided Argentina, we won't face a top ten team until the semis (when the survivor of what could be a loaded Netherlands-Italy-Brazil-Spain bracket arrives) - but we're talking about a team that barely drew Slovenia and were two minutes from leaving the tournament against one of its worst teams.
I thought the attack looked pretty good, along with the play in midfield. The US still lacks great finishing as a team (US strikers do not have a goal in this tournament and Altidore missed a gift-wrapped chance today) and they still aren't great passers. Against Algeria these things were more easily swept under the rug; I doubt that'll be the case against Ghana, much less even stronger teams that the US could run into in later stages of the competition. The defense continues to be suspect. For as exciting as this game was, you can't really look at it and say the US played a great game. They played a good game and were helped by not facing top-shelf opposition. Rafik Djebbour rattles the woodwork. Diego Forlan scores.
Am I excited to get to keep watching the US? Of course. And the Donovan goal is one of the greatest sports moments of my life. But I think we need to be measured in our response here. Even in what will probably be the easiest - or anyway least imposing - of the four quarterfinal brackets, we can take nothing for granted with this team.
England 1-0 Slovenia
Even in finally getting a victory and dragging themselves into the round of 16, it still seems like England are not all there. To make the semis they would have to go through Germany and Argentina - and while both games, if they were to happen, would make for very interesting stories, it's hard to imagine England coming close to doing that the way they've been playing.
Germany 1-0 Ghana
A perfect result because it means the US avoid Germany. Part of me was paranoid that the Germans would rather have played us than England and would leak a late goal, but it didn't happen - Ghana were probably fine facing us instead of England and weren't chasing it. I would rather not have faced a team that's going to be the Pride of Africa here in the round of 16, but given the alternative of facing Germany, it's cool.
Australia 2-1 Serbia
Both teams go out. For a little while - with Australia up 2-0 and Germany up 1-0 - it looked like what failed to happen in Group A would happen here. And then the exact same thing came to pass - Germany never really looked like getting a second, Australia gave a goal back, and that was pretty much it. The Socceroos end their World Cup with a win, and with the core of their team so old, who knows if they're going to be back in four years.
Interesting, if not massive, games tomorrow. Netherlands-Cameroon is basically a friendly, but Denmark-Japan is winner-take-all, and Group F has all to play for, with New Zealand holding out hope that they can earn a matchup with the Dutch and Italy trying to avoid being the second defending champion in three Cups to go out at the group stage.
What a game. I must confess, I came very close to turning it off at various points in the second half. The Americans couldn't buy a goal, it seemed, and as the minutes dragged on I felt worse and worse, a bundle of nerves, feeling almost physically ill. The worst part was that every five minutes or so, the tension seemed ready to erupt into joy and relief, and then it never quite happened, which only made that tension worse. Finally it came, in injury time, as Tim Howard made a save and flung the ball to a streaking Landon Donovan, who found Jozy Altidore, who crossed it to Clint Dempsey, who once again was denied by the keeper... but Donovan, running in on goal, cleaned up the rebound and then was off to the left corner flag to be mobbed.
The US topped their group for the first time since 1930 and won a game they were not leading for the first time ever at the World Cup. It's tempting to ascribe great things to the US team following this win, but I think we should probably keep in mind that Algeria didn't score a single goal at the World Cup and nearly got yet another early goal were it not for the crossbar. The defense played well overall, I thought, or at least better than they did against Slovenia, but I don't know if this is the defense of a team that can really make a run in the knockouts. If a team that doesn't score goals can create 19 shots (even if only four were on goal), what will Ghana do? What would (potentially) Diego Forlan and Uruguay do? It's easy to look at the side of the bracket the US are on and salivate - we avoided Germany, we avoided Argentina, we won't face a top ten team until the semis (when the survivor of what could be a loaded Netherlands-Italy-Brazil-Spain bracket arrives) - but we're talking about a team that barely drew Slovenia and were two minutes from leaving the tournament against one of its worst teams.
I thought the attack looked pretty good, along with the play in midfield. The US still lacks great finishing as a team (US strikers do not have a goal in this tournament and Altidore missed a gift-wrapped chance today) and they still aren't great passers. Against Algeria these things were more easily swept under the rug; I doubt that'll be the case against Ghana, much less even stronger teams that the US could run into in later stages of the competition. The defense continues to be suspect. For as exciting as this game was, you can't really look at it and say the US played a great game. They played a good game and were helped by not facing top-shelf opposition. Rafik Djebbour rattles the woodwork. Diego Forlan scores.
Am I excited to get to keep watching the US? Of course. And the Donovan goal is one of the greatest sports moments of my life. But I think we need to be measured in our response here. Even in what will probably be the easiest - or anyway least imposing - of the four quarterfinal brackets, we can take nothing for granted with this team.
England 1-0 Slovenia
Even in finally getting a victory and dragging themselves into the round of 16, it still seems like England are not all there. To make the semis they would have to go through Germany and Argentina - and while both games, if they were to happen, would make for very interesting stories, it's hard to imagine England coming close to doing that the way they've been playing.
Germany 1-0 Ghana
A perfect result because it means the US avoid Germany. Part of me was paranoid that the Germans would rather have played us than England and would leak a late goal, but it didn't happen - Ghana were probably fine facing us instead of England and weren't chasing it. I would rather not have faced a team that's going to be the Pride of Africa here in the round of 16, but given the alternative of facing Germany, it's cool.
Australia 2-1 Serbia
Both teams go out. For a little while - with Australia up 2-0 and Germany up 1-0 - it looked like what failed to happen in Group A would happen here. And then the exact same thing came to pass - Germany never really looked like getting a second, Australia gave a goal back, and that was pretty much it. The Socceroos end their World Cup with a win, and with the core of their team so old, who knows if they're going to be back in four years.
Interesting, if not massive, games tomorrow. Netherlands-Cameroon is basically a friendly, but Denmark-Japan is winner-take-all, and Group F has all to play for, with New Zealand holding out hope that they can earn a matchup with the Dutch and Italy trying to avoid being the second defending champion in three Cups to go out at the group stage.
World Cup 2010: Day Twelve
Our first advancements to the knockouts, and they went about how I expected.
Uruguay 1-0 Mexico
I don't expect much out of Mexico in the round of 16, as usual. They made it that far, but no further, in each of the last four World Cups, and for the second straight Cup they'll be facing Argentina, who I don't see them beating. 2006's matchup was reasonably entertaining - two goals in the first ten minutes, then nothing until Maxi Rodriguez's insane volley in extra time.
South Africa 2-1 France
It actually looked for a while - when it was 2-0 South Africa and 1-0 Uruguay - that the hosts might progress miraculously. Then France caught up with the game a bit and the dream was gone. However, I'm happy for South Africa that they got a win on home soil, and against a world power, albeit one in total disarray.
Argentina 2-0 Greece
Had Greece been any other team, they might have won this game. They're not.
South Korea 2-2 Nigeria
One of the more exciting games of the tournament so far. Yakubu's miss was simply astounding - as the announcers exclaimed on the radio call, it was easier to make than to miss - and with the Nigerians going home as the result of the draw, that's one that could haunt. At least he made the tying penalty shot and saved some face. South Korea went through as a result of this game and will face Uruguay; I'm inclined to say Uruguay wins that one considering how shambolic South Korea's defense looked in this game.
With South Africa and Nigeria joining Cameroon on the rubbish heap, there are three African teams left carrying the banner. Ivory Coast, while still technically alive, are basically done because of goal differential. That leaves Algeria and Ghana, who can both advance with wins tomorrow. Of course, I'm certainly going to be rooting for Algeria not to win. So really it just leaves Ghana. Let's go Black Stars! This would also be good because it potentially dumps Germany out of the tournament.
I'm not sure I've ever been as nervous for a soccer game as for US-Algeria. A loss here could set back soccer in this country 12 years.
Monday, June 21, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Eleven
Today was the final day of early morning games (6:30 Central kickoffs), and while this means that my ability to watch the rest of the tournament will be restricted to weekends and my ability to slip out of work for a couple hours if it's not that busy, I'm also kind of relieved. I could barely stay awake for Portugal-North Korea, although to be fair I had very little investment in that game and it was only exciting if you like goals and the last time you'll see eleven North Koreans alive.
Portugal 7-0 North Korea
Biggest blowout since Germany 8-0 Saudi Arabia in 2002, which I also watched live. Amazingly, this game was only 1-0 at halftime (Germany was already up 4-0 at the break), but the Koreans fell apart in the second half. Tommy Smyth on ESPN Radio speculated that the Koreans were simply not a very fit team and had expended most of the effort reserves they had in holding Brazil to a 2-1 win. Portugal got into the North Korean box pretty much whenever they wanted to in the second half, scoring all of their goals from close range. My particular favorite was Cristiano Ronaldo's goal, his first for Portugal since 2008 - he tried to flip it over the onrushing keeper, and ended up bouncing the ball off his head and neck back down to his feet, at which point he poked it into the open net. Then he just had this look on his face like, "That's how I break my streak of not scoring? Okay." It almost made me like him until I remembered he's a whiny flopper.
Chile 1-0 Switzerland
Another bad game for the refs. I want to like Chile, because I think they're an interesting team that has the potential to surprise in the knockouts, but they're such awful divers that it really just makes me hate them. Switzerland's Valon Behrami made some contact with Arturo Vidal, and Vidal made an absolute meal of it; the ref was too far away to know how BS it was and ran over with the straight red. While it's obvious that there has to be a way to maintain discipline in games, I think that the straight red card should be reserved for the roughest, most deliberate of challenges. Some guys bring it out far too easily (Tim Cahill's was one such) considering the impact it's likely to have on a game. You basically cannot win if you're down to ten men before halftime. Given that it still took Chile until the 75th minute to score, you'd have to say it would have made a difference in this game.
Spain 2-0 Honduras
Another convincing-yet-unconvincing performance from Spain, but at least they got the win this time. David Villa scored twice, one a remarkable individual performance in which he dribbled into the area from 30 yards out and fired home while falling over, but also missed a penalty kick by wrong-footing the goalie and then pushing the ball just right of the post. I feel the same way about Spain right now as I feel about the Netherlands - I believe they're good and I think they can do well, but I'd like to see a little more out of them than I have to this point. At least Spain were tested by Switzerland; the Dutch could be in for a rude awakening if they suddenly have to face Italy in the round of 16.
Speaking of which, now that we're down to the third set of games only, let's quickly go over each group. I know I did the first six yesterday. We're doing them again. I'll give my actual picks this time to sweeten the deal.
Group A: Mexico and Uruguay both swear they aren't going to play for a draw. This is good news for France, or at least it would be if they weren't fighting, so maybe it's good news for South Africa. It's unlikely that the combined margins are going to turn over the goal differential that exists, however. I say Mexico and Uruguay go through.
Group B: With only a Greece side that I really think are terrible standing in their way, I think Argentina are taking all nine points and topping the group. Assuming they romp, second place will go to the winner of South Korea/Nigeria, but Nigeria has to win by two goals to overturn the existing goal differential. In other words, go with South Korea.
Group C: I'm terrified for Wednesday, of course, but hopeful that the US can get the win they need to go through, in whatever fashion. You also get the feeling that England will suddenly show up and torch Slovenia, but then I was sure they'd beat Algeria and look how that turned out. I still say US and England make it out.
Group D: Ghana lead the group and are pretty much Africa's last, best hope. But they get Germany, which I'm thinking means they desperately need Serbia to lose. Ghana's GD is +1, but if they lose that reduces at least to zero, which is where Serbia's sits, so a draw by Serbia and a Ghana loss by more than a goal risks dumping Ghana from the tournament. On the other hand, Australia's GD is so woeful that while they can tie Ghana on points with a win and a Ghana loss, Ghana would almost certainly go through anyway on GD. My pick here is Germany and Serbia - sorry, Africa.
Group E: The Netherlands are through, so it's a winner-take-all match between Denmark and Japan. Japan go through in the event of a draw, so expect Denmark to push for a win. I'm going to go out on a slight limb here and say the Danes pull it off, but it should be a fairly exciting game, although if Japan go into a defensive shell maybe a bit less so.
Group F: Paraguay need only draw New Zealand to advance, so they seem like a fairly safe bet - while I like the Kiwis and would love to see them move on, it's pretty hard to imagine lightning striking three times. While Italy have struggled, I still think they're going to beat Slovakia and advance as well.
Group G: Brazil and Portugal are going to go through after Portugal hung that 7-spot on the North Koreans, putting fully nine goals between themselves and the Ivory Coast. While the Ivorians will probably beat North Korea, they would need to do so by five goals and hope that Brazil beat Portugal by five goals... and as unlikely as that is with both teams trying, it's even more unlikely when Brazil could very well be resting some of its stars for the knockouts.
Group H: Group C is probably the most interesting group on the final day, but this one is up there. Chile and Spain are the likely bets - but if Chile beat Spain, the Swiss can go through with a win or draw. I think Spain will beat Chile and both will advance, however.
What second round matchups are we looking at if things go down the way I expect them to?
Uruguay vs. South Korea
Mexico vs. Argentina
USA vs. Serbia
England vs. Germany
Netherlands vs. Italy
Paraguay vs. Denmark
Brazil vs. Chile
Spain vs. Portugal
Holy crap is that an exciting-looking second round. Mexico/Argentina is a rematch of a great second round game from 2006; England/Germany is a massive historical rivalry (and rematch of the 1966 final); Netherlands/Italy matches two major European powers; Spain/Portugal does the same and they're neighbors to boot; Brazil/Chile is an intriguing continental matchup (although the Brazilians won both games during qualifying somewhat handily). If things turn out like this, we are in for a pretty great knockout phase.
Portugal 7-0 North Korea
Biggest blowout since Germany 8-0 Saudi Arabia in 2002, which I also watched live. Amazingly, this game was only 1-0 at halftime (Germany was already up 4-0 at the break), but the Koreans fell apart in the second half. Tommy Smyth on ESPN Radio speculated that the Koreans were simply not a very fit team and had expended most of the effort reserves they had in holding Brazil to a 2-1 win. Portugal got into the North Korean box pretty much whenever they wanted to in the second half, scoring all of their goals from close range. My particular favorite was Cristiano Ronaldo's goal, his first for Portugal since 2008 - he tried to flip it over the onrushing keeper, and ended up bouncing the ball off his head and neck back down to his feet, at which point he poked it into the open net. Then he just had this look on his face like, "That's how I break my streak of not scoring? Okay." It almost made me like him until I remembered he's a whiny flopper.
Chile 1-0 Switzerland
Another bad game for the refs. I want to like Chile, because I think they're an interesting team that has the potential to surprise in the knockouts, but they're such awful divers that it really just makes me hate them. Switzerland's Valon Behrami made some contact with Arturo Vidal, and Vidal made an absolute meal of it; the ref was too far away to know how BS it was and ran over with the straight red. While it's obvious that there has to be a way to maintain discipline in games, I think that the straight red card should be reserved for the roughest, most deliberate of challenges. Some guys bring it out far too easily (Tim Cahill's was one such) considering the impact it's likely to have on a game. You basically cannot win if you're down to ten men before halftime. Given that it still took Chile until the 75th minute to score, you'd have to say it would have made a difference in this game.
Spain 2-0 Honduras
Another convincing-yet-unconvincing performance from Spain, but at least they got the win this time. David Villa scored twice, one a remarkable individual performance in which he dribbled into the area from 30 yards out and fired home while falling over, but also missed a penalty kick by wrong-footing the goalie and then pushing the ball just right of the post. I feel the same way about Spain right now as I feel about the Netherlands - I believe they're good and I think they can do well, but I'd like to see a little more out of them than I have to this point. At least Spain were tested by Switzerland; the Dutch could be in for a rude awakening if they suddenly have to face Italy in the round of 16.
Speaking of which, now that we're down to the third set of games only, let's quickly go over each group. I know I did the first six yesterday. We're doing them again. I'll give my actual picks this time to sweeten the deal.
Group A: Mexico and Uruguay both swear they aren't going to play for a draw. This is good news for France, or at least it would be if they weren't fighting, so maybe it's good news for South Africa. It's unlikely that the combined margins are going to turn over the goal differential that exists, however. I say Mexico and Uruguay go through.
Group B: With only a Greece side that I really think are terrible standing in their way, I think Argentina are taking all nine points and topping the group. Assuming they romp, second place will go to the winner of South Korea/Nigeria, but Nigeria has to win by two goals to overturn the existing goal differential. In other words, go with South Korea.
Group C: I'm terrified for Wednesday, of course, but hopeful that the US can get the win they need to go through, in whatever fashion. You also get the feeling that England will suddenly show up and torch Slovenia, but then I was sure they'd beat Algeria and look how that turned out. I still say US and England make it out.
Group D: Ghana lead the group and are pretty much Africa's last, best hope. But they get Germany, which I'm thinking means they desperately need Serbia to lose. Ghana's GD is +1, but if they lose that reduces at least to zero, which is where Serbia's sits, so a draw by Serbia and a Ghana loss by more than a goal risks dumping Ghana from the tournament. On the other hand, Australia's GD is so woeful that while they can tie Ghana on points with a win and a Ghana loss, Ghana would almost certainly go through anyway on GD. My pick here is Germany and Serbia - sorry, Africa.
Group E: The Netherlands are through, so it's a winner-take-all match between Denmark and Japan. Japan go through in the event of a draw, so expect Denmark to push for a win. I'm going to go out on a slight limb here and say the Danes pull it off, but it should be a fairly exciting game, although if Japan go into a defensive shell maybe a bit less so.
Group F: Paraguay need only draw New Zealand to advance, so they seem like a fairly safe bet - while I like the Kiwis and would love to see them move on, it's pretty hard to imagine lightning striking three times. While Italy have struggled, I still think they're going to beat Slovakia and advance as well.
Group G: Brazil and Portugal are going to go through after Portugal hung that 7-spot on the North Koreans, putting fully nine goals between themselves and the Ivory Coast. While the Ivorians will probably beat North Korea, they would need to do so by five goals and hope that Brazil beat Portugal by five goals... and as unlikely as that is with both teams trying, it's even more unlikely when Brazil could very well be resting some of its stars for the knockouts.
Group H: Group C is probably the most interesting group on the final day, but this one is up there. Chile and Spain are the likely bets - but if Chile beat Spain, the Swiss can go through with a win or draw. I think Spain will beat Chile and both will advance, however.
What second round matchups are we looking at if things go down the way I expect them to?
Uruguay vs. South Korea
Mexico vs. Argentina
USA vs. Serbia
England vs. Germany
Netherlands vs. Italy
Paraguay vs. Denmark
Brazil vs. Chile
Spain vs. Portugal
Holy crap is that an exciting-looking second round. Mexico/Argentina is a rematch of a great second round game from 2006; England/Germany is a massive historical rivalry (and rematch of the 1966 final); Netherlands/Italy matches two major European powers; Spain/Portugal does the same and they're neighbors to boot; Brazil/Chile is an intriguing continental matchup (although the Brazilians won both games during qualifying somewhat handily). If things turn out like this, we are in for a pretty great knockout phase.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Ten
I didn't actually watch much today, but let's talk about it anyway.
Paraguay 2-0 Slovakia
This group always looked like Italy and Paraguay, and it seems that Paraguay has advancement pretty much sewn up following their comfortable victory. After dominating large stretches of their opening game but losing the win at the death, Slovakia were thoroughly outplayed by Paraguay (in spite of their slight edge in possession), getting just one shot on goal, and that two minutes from time already down 2-0. Slovakia's defense broke down on both goals; the first saw Lucas Barrios thread a pass right between the legs of Kornel Salata to be poked home by Enrique Vera, while the second was a strike from Cristian Riveros after Slovakia allowed Paraguay to have as many attackers in the box as they had defenders. With just one point, Slovakia's World Cup isn't over yet, but it's hard to see how they can beat Italy - which they must do to advance - when they've managed just one goal in their first two games. Paraguay need only take a point from their game with New Zealand to move on, regardless of other results.
Italy 1-1 New Zealand
Possibly a bigger shock than Switzerland beating Spain. While the FIFA rankings are questionable, Italy and New Zealand are separated by 774 points, while Spain and Switzerland are only separated by 699. New Zealand didn't win, of course, but holding on for the draw while being thoroughly dominated in most aspects of the game is an impressive showing by a country that just got its first ever point last week. Italy had 72% of the possession. Italy took 15 corners to New Zealand's none. Italy took 23 shots, with five on target; New Zealand took three shots, and the only one on target found the back of the net. I should probably note that the officiating in this game was also a bit shambolic; New Zealand's goal was probably offsides, and the penalty kick on which Italy tied it came from a very soft foul call (perhaps it was intended as some sort of makeup call for missing the offsides?). Still, New Zealand have to be thrilled with this result. On the other hand, it's difficult to see how they progress; a draw with Paraguay would only be enough to advance them if Italy and Slovakia draw and Italy score fewer goals than New Zealand in doing so, which seems unlikely. As much as I'd love to see New Zealand progress, I simply can't imagine they have beating Paraguay in them. Of course, if you're New Zealand it might be a moral victory simply to leave the World Cup without a loss.
Brazil 3-1 Ivory Coast
It only gets worse for African teams. I like Sven-Goran Eriksson, but in the wake of this result his apparent decision to play Portugal for a draw from the start becomes more suspect. At this point Ivory Coast really need North Korea to get a result off Portugal, and then to beat North Korea themselves in the final group of games while Portugal fails to win against Brazil. All of these are moderately reasonable outcomes, to be fair, but Ivory Coast would be in much better shape had they been able to take Portugal in the opening game, and it just never seemed like they were really trying to. This particular game is also noteworthy because it featured Luis Fabiano scoring after handling the ball twice, which somehow the officials missed even though I could spot it at full speed and with Fabiano only an inch or two high on a computer screen. I doubt removing that goal from Brazil's books would have made much difference, but sheesh, do you really need to make things easier for Brazil?
The final round of games begins Tuesday, and I'm excited, as most groups either still have all to play for or feature a do-or-die game. Consider the following:
Group A: This one would have been a snoozer, but suddenly maybe the hosts aren't quite dead - France are clearly in shambles, so what if South Africa can capitalize and flatten them 3-0? If Uruguay defeated Mexico 2-0 at the same time, South Africa would advance. Sure, it's completely unlikely... but let's throw Africa a bone here. They don't have a lot going on.
Group B: I fully expect Argentina to wallop Greece, and assuming that happens it makes South Korea and Nigeria into an elimination game, albeit one that Nigeria would have to win by two goals to advance. Still, everyone still having a shot to move on on the last day makes for an exciting finish.
Group C: Well, obviously. All four teams can still move on. It'll be interesting to see exactly how these games play out, as I can't help but think Slovenia will be happy to play for a draw with England, while the US and Algeria will both be playing for the win.
Group D: Anyone can still move on here as well, though obviously some scenarios are likelier than others. Serbia advance with a win. Ghana advance with a win - or, if Serbia don't win, with a draw. Germany advance with a win, or probably with a draw if Serbia lose. Australia needs to win and for Ghana to win; alternately, the Aussies will be hoping to win by several goals and for Ghana to get thumped in hopes of turning around a significant five-goal differential.
Group E: The Dutch are in and Cameroon are out, but that makes Japan/Denmark a for-sure elimination game. The Japanese have a one-goal edge in GD, so one wonders if they might just play for the draw, especially since a situation that involves them having to score more than one goal is not going to be to their liking.
Group F: As discussed above, all four teams advance with a win, regardless of other results - the one exception being Slovakia, who need to win and have New Zealand not win. Paraguay and Italy still seem like the obvious call, but who knows? If both games end in draws, New Zealand could still squeak this one out without even having to win.
Groups G and H: Still a lot of scenarios. Things will likely be a little clearer after Monday.
Paraguay 2-0 Slovakia
This group always looked like Italy and Paraguay, and it seems that Paraguay has advancement pretty much sewn up following their comfortable victory. After dominating large stretches of their opening game but losing the win at the death, Slovakia were thoroughly outplayed by Paraguay (in spite of their slight edge in possession), getting just one shot on goal, and that two minutes from time already down 2-0. Slovakia's defense broke down on both goals; the first saw Lucas Barrios thread a pass right between the legs of Kornel Salata to be poked home by Enrique Vera, while the second was a strike from Cristian Riveros after Slovakia allowed Paraguay to have as many attackers in the box as they had defenders. With just one point, Slovakia's World Cup isn't over yet, but it's hard to see how they can beat Italy - which they must do to advance - when they've managed just one goal in their first two games. Paraguay need only take a point from their game with New Zealand to move on, regardless of other results.
Italy 1-1 New Zealand
Possibly a bigger shock than Switzerland beating Spain. While the FIFA rankings are questionable, Italy and New Zealand are separated by 774 points, while Spain and Switzerland are only separated by 699. New Zealand didn't win, of course, but holding on for the draw while being thoroughly dominated in most aspects of the game is an impressive showing by a country that just got its first ever point last week. Italy had 72% of the possession. Italy took 15 corners to New Zealand's none. Italy took 23 shots, with five on target; New Zealand took three shots, and the only one on target found the back of the net. I should probably note that the officiating in this game was also a bit shambolic; New Zealand's goal was probably offsides, and the penalty kick on which Italy tied it came from a very soft foul call (perhaps it was intended as some sort of makeup call for missing the offsides?). Still, New Zealand have to be thrilled with this result. On the other hand, it's difficult to see how they progress; a draw with Paraguay would only be enough to advance them if Italy and Slovakia draw and Italy score fewer goals than New Zealand in doing so, which seems unlikely. As much as I'd love to see New Zealand progress, I simply can't imagine they have beating Paraguay in them. Of course, if you're New Zealand it might be a moral victory simply to leave the World Cup without a loss.
Brazil 3-1 Ivory Coast
It only gets worse for African teams. I like Sven-Goran Eriksson, but in the wake of this result his apparent decision to play Portugal for a draw from the start becomes more suspect. At this point Ivory Coast really need North Korea to get a result off Portugal, and then to beat North Korea themselves in the final group of games while Portugal fails to win against Brazil. All of these are moderately reasonable outcomes, to be fair, but Ivory Coast would be in much better shape had they been able to take Portugal in the opening game, and it just never seemed like they were really trying to. This particular game is also noteworthy because it featured Luis Fabiano scoring after handling the ball twice, which somehow the officials missed even though I could spot it at full speed and with Fabiano only an inch or two high on a computer screen. I doubt removing that goal from Brazil's books would have made much difference, but sheesh, do you really need to make things easier for Brazil?
The final round of games begins Tuesday, and I'm excited, as most groups either still have all to play for or feature a do-or-die game. Consider the following:
Group A: This one would have been a snoozer, but suddenly maybe the hosts aren't quite dead - France are clearly in shambles, so what if South Africa can capitalize and flatten them 3-0? If Uruguay defeated Mexico 2-0 at the same time, South Africa would advance. Sure, it's completely unlikely... but let's throw Africa a bone here. They don't have a lot going on.
Group B: I fully expect Argentina to wallop Greece, and assuming that happens it makes South Korea and Nigeria into an elimination game, albeit one that Nigeria would have to win by two goals to advance. Still, everyone still having a shot to move on on the last day makes for an exciting finish.
Group C: Well, obviously. All four teams can still move on. It'll be interesting to see exactly how these games play out, as I can't help but think Slovenia will be happy to play for a draw with England, while the US and Algeria will both be playing for the win.
Group D: Anyone can still move on here as well, though obviously some scenarios are likelier than others. Serbia advance with a win. Ghana advance with a win - or, if Serbia don't win, with a draw. Germany advance with a win, or probably with a draw if Serbia lose. Australia needs to win and for Ghana to win; alternately, the Aussies will be hoping to win by several goals and for Ghana to get thumped in hopes of turning around a significant five-goal differential.
Group E: The Dutch are in and Cameroon are out, but that makes Japan/Denmark a for-sure elimination game. The Japanese have a one-goal edge in GD, so one wonders if they might just play for the draw, especially since a situation that involves them having to score more than one goal is not going to be to their liking.
Group F: As discussed above, all four teams advance with a win, regardless of other results - the one exception being Slovakia, who need to win and have New Zealand not win. Paraguay and Italy still seem like the obvious call, but who knows? If both games end in draws, New Zealand could still squeak this one out without even having to win.
Groups G and H: Still a lot of scenarios. Things will likely be a little clearer after Monday.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Nine
I don't know if it's ironic or just kind of sad, but this is really starting to look like it will be the worst World Cup for African teams since 1982, the year West Germany and Austria colluded to deny Algeria a place in the second round, and the last time no African team advanced past the first.
Netherlands 1-0 Japan
Japan played fairly well defensively in this game - the Dutch goal was a rocket from Wesley Sneijder that the keeper could do pretty much nothing about - and nearly tied it when Shinji Okazaki fired maybe a yard over the bar on the stroke of 90 minutes. Japan now go into a winner-take-all match with Denmark and the only question is this: can Japan score enough to win? Will one goal be enough? A draw would actually be sufficient to progress Japan, so maybe they won't even need one goal provided they can keep another clean sheet; they're quite close to not having conceded in the World Cup at all. The Netherlands seem bored, like they're just waiting for the knockouts to start; they dominated possession as usual, but only took ten shots, although you can chalk some of that up to Japan's defense.
Australia 1-1 Ghana
The Socceroos are alive by just the slimmest of margins, but had it not been for Harry Kewell's ejection for a handball on the goal line - the resulting penalty from Asamoah Gyan providing Ghana's lone goal, as well - they could have taken this one. Australia went up 1-0 in the eleventh minute and then were successful at holding off a rampaging Ghana until the ball hit Kewell's arm. Oddly, Ghana shut down for much of the second half as if playing for a draw; the Black Stars didn't take a shot between the 60th and 88th minutes, while Australia surged forward as if they were the ones who had an extra man. Ghana's center backs were woeful and very nearly gave the game away, with Australia coming closer to the winning goal than Ghana really ever did. Ghana suddenly came alive in the last few minutes, but it was too little, too late. The real question is why they didn't attack more strongly against a team down a man, something known only to Ghana themselves.
Denmark 2-1 Cameroon
I only saw the last few minutes of this one, in which Cameroon tried for an equalizer but were clearly gassed. It sounds like there was some slack defending on both sides, with Cameroon taking an early lead through Samuel Eto'o but proceeding to give it back and then some.
So how are the African teams doing? Well, only Cameroon have been officially eliminated, but it's not looking great. South Africa are almost certain to be eliminated, the first hosts ever to miss the second round. Nigeria are bottom of Group B, though they could advance with a win over South Korea and a little help from the Argentinians. Algeria are bottom of Group C, though a win over the US combined with a Slovenia win over England would advance them. Ghana do top Group D at the moment, but they may well need a win over Germany to advance, something I'm not lining up to bet on. Ivory Coast have a chance; we'll know more after their game with Brazil and perhaps more specifically after Portugal's game with North Korea. But I'm not convinced by them either, especially with Didier Drogba not fully fit.
Two African teams have never advanced in the same year, so if one moves on, Africa has merely lived up to usual expectations. But with this Cup being in Africa, obviously so much more was expected. And without a lot of help, it's entirely possible that no African team will move on. For the sake of the continent and this Cup, I hope that doesn't happen.
Netherlands 1-0 Japan
Japan played fairly well defensively in this game - the Dutch goal was a rocket from Wesley Sneijder that the keeper could do pretty much nothing about - and nearly tied it when Shinji Okazaki fired maybe a yard over the bar on the stroke of 90 minutes. Japan now go into a winner-take-all match with Denmark and the only question is this: can Japan score enough to win? Will one goal be enough? A draw would actually be sufficient to progress Japan, so maybe they won't even need one goal provided they can keep another clean sheet; they're quite close to not having conceded in the World Cup at all. The Netherlands seem bored, like they're just waiting for the knockouts to start; they dominated possession as usual, but only took ten shots, although you can chalk some of that up to Japan's defense.
Australia 1-1 Ghana
The Socceroos are alive by just the slimmest of margins, but had it not been for Harry Kewell's ejection for a handball on the goal line - the resulting penalty from Asamoah Gyan providing Ghana's lone goal, as well - they could have taken this one. Australia went up 1-0 in the eleventh minute and then were successful at holding off a rampaging Ghana until the ball hit Kewell's arm. Oddly, Ghana shut down for much of the second half as if playing for a draw; the Black Stars didn't take a shot between the 60th and 88th minutes, while Australia surged forward as if they were the ones who had an extra man. Ghana's center backs were woeful and very nearly gave the game away, with Australia coming closer to the winning goal than Ghana really ever did. Ghana suddenly came alive in the last few minutes, but it was too little, too late. The real question is why they didn't attack more strongly against a team down a man, something known only to Ghana themselves.
Denmark 2-1 Cameroon
I only saw the last few minutes of this one, in which Cameroon tried for an equalizer but were clearly gassed. It sounds like there was some slack defending on both sides, with Cameroon taking an early lead through Samuel Eto'o but proceeding to give it back and then some.
So how are the African teams doing? Well, only Cameroon have been officially eliminated, but it's not looking great. South Africa are almost certain to be eliminated, the first hosts ever to miss the second round. Nigeria are bottom of Group B, though they could advance with a win over South Korea and a little help from the Argentinians. Algeria are bottom of Group C, though a win over the US combined with a Slovenia win over England would advance them. Ghana do top Group D at the moment, but they may well need a win over Germany to advance, something I'm not lining up to bet on. Ivory Coast have a chance; we'll know more after their game with Brazil and perhaps more specifically after Portugal's game with North Korea. But I'm not convinced by them either, especially with Didier Drogba not fully fit.
Two African teams have never advanced in the same year, so if one moves on, Africa has merely lived up to usual expectations. But with this Cup being in Africa, obviously so much more was expected. And without a lot of help, it's entirely possible that no African team will move on. For the sake of the continent and this Cup, I hope that doesn't happen.
Friday, June 18, 2010
A tale of two halves
USA 2-2 Slovenia
The way I felt at the end of each half in this game really mirrored the way I felt at the end of the USA's first two games in 2006.
At the end of the first half I was morose, deflated, angry at the team for conceding goals so easily, trying desperately to think of a silver lining - much like I was at the end of the 3-0 defeat to the Czech Republic that opened the 2006 Cup.
At the end of the second half I was drained, exhilarated, thrilled to have a point but furious at the officials for stealing two more - much like I was at the end of the 1-1 draw with Italy.
It's obviously the main part of the story, so let's get the officiating out of the way first. First of all: it was a goal. Of course it was a goal. Unlike DaMarcus Beasley's "game-winning goal" in the Italy game, which was called back for a tough but legitimate offsides on Brian McBride, there is simply no way to defend the whistle blowing in this situation. This wasn't even a case of a guy being too quick to call a foul; any foul was quite clearly on Slovenia. The ref - Koman Coulibaly of Mali, officiating his first ever World Cup game - wasn't trigger-happy, he was incompetent. Or crooked. Given that he didn't even blow the full-time whistle properly, I lean toward the former, but an awful lot of questionable calls went against the US in the first half (including a ludicrous yellow card on Robbie Findley for having the temerity to take a ball off the face in the Slovenian box, though this does spare us having to watch Findley refuse to shoot from five yards out in the Algeria game, for which he's now suspended). It's ironic that we'd spent the first week of the tournament talking about how good the officiating had been - with the red card on Tim Cahill in the Germany/Australia game the only really poor decision of note - and then we got, in one day, Alberto Undiano Mallenco doing his best impersonation of Valentin Ivanov (and potentially submarining Germany's tournament in the process) and Coulibaly's performance, one of the worst from an all-around standpoint that I can remember seeing in a football game. Even Graham Poll's three-yellow-card game (Croatia/Australia 2006) wasn't as bad back to front as this one was.
But with that out of the way, let's face it: we can say what we want about Coulibaly - and I have - but he didn't cost the US the win. Bad refereeing decisions, sadly, are part of football - part of sports - and they're just going to happen. The trick is not to put yourself in a position where they can cost you a game. And by going down 2-0 in the first half thanks to yet more shoddy defending, the Americans put themselves in a position where Coulibaly's decision could cost them the game. Leaving Valter Birsa unchallenged from 24 yards in the thirteenth minute cost them a win. Letting Zlatan Ljubljankic get completely behind the defense in the 42nd minute cost them a win. Coulibaly's awful call cost them the win, yes. They were absolutely cheated. But ultimately, what they could control were those two goals, neither of which should have been given away as easily as they were. And if they don't give those goals away, the bad call never gets a chance to matter.
And really, that's what the US need to focus on going forward. You can't fix the refereeing going into the next game (though I would figure it couldn't be this bad). But you can at least try to fix your own poor defense (more so in first halves) and inability to keep from conceding in the first fifteen minutes of games. We're all mad about the call, but that's not going to solve anything. They've got to go forward and figure out how to beat Algeria, without worrying about what the refs might do. Play well enough and you don't give the refs a chance to ruin it.
In some ways, I'm glad the US didn't get the win here. A win basically vindicates their propensity for going behind - well, hey, you can never count the Americans out! - even though their recent results prove that it need not be that way. I don't want to see the team that showed up in this first half against Algeria. I want to see the team that needed to beat Egypt 3-0 to advance in the Confederations Cup and did. I want to see the team that beat Spain 2-0, or that jumped out to a 2-0 lead on Brazil after 27 minutes. That's the team that needs to show up, and that's the team that had better show up. Because here's a prediction I will make for you: if the US trail Algeria 2-0 at halftime on Wednesday, their tournament will be over.
Serbia 1-0 Germany
Weird game. Germany never looked like the side that showed up to stomp Australia until after a few soft yellow cards (apparently any foul from behind deserved a card?) that culminated in Miroslav Klose being sent off and Serbia putting in a goal just two minutes later. Even down a man, Germany looked the better side for much of the second half - gaining a penalty that could have tied it only to see Lukas Podolski miss - and I found myself, bizarrely, rooting for the Germans to find an equalizer simply because I felt it was no less than they deserved. It wasn't to be, which is a shame, but on the other hand it blows Group D wide open and makes tomorrow's Ghana-Australia tilt a lot more fascinating.
England 0-0 Algeria
You really wonder what the final day of Group C - Wednesday the 23rd - has in store for us. When discussing the scenarios that could see the US advance, I had always assumed England beating Algeria as a given. Now things are all screwed up. I didn't see this game, but from what I've heard England looked pretty awful offensively, thanks in part to a stout Algerian defense. That kind of terrifies me for Wednesday, but hey - we only need one goal. (Just so long as we don't freaking give up any.)
The most amazing thing about this result is it means it is entirely possible - though of course you would not want to count on this - that the US can advance to the second round simply by drawing Algeria, which would make them the first team to advance to the second round of the World Cup without getting a win since Chile in 1998. Here are the possible scenarios:
US defeat Algeria
Obviously preferable. A win over Algeria advances the US automatically. If it comes along with a draw in England/Slovenia, the US and Slovenia advance, with the US coming first in the group if they win by two goals or more, or win by one goal but score more total goals than Slovenia. If Slovenia win, they top the group and the US come second. If England win, the US and England advance, with first place in the group determined by who won by more goals; if they won by the same number of goals, it's reasonably likely that the US would win the second tiebreaker as they currently have a two-goal edge on England in total goals scored in the group.
US draw Algeria
This would be annoying, and yet if England don't win (which looks more possible by the second) it would almost certainly advance the US anyway. If the US and Algeria draw, that gives the US three points and Algeria two; an England loss to Slovenia would leave the English on two points, and the Americans would advance in second place. An England/Slovenia draw would also see Slovenia win the group, with the US and England tied for second, but the US come into Wednesday with a two-goal advantage in total goals scored, which presumably would be difficult for England to overturn - if the US drew 1-1, England would have to draw 3-3 just to force the next tiebreaker, an unlikely result. However, if that did happen, advancement would be determined by the drawing of lots. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
US lose to Algeria
Obviously the US are out if this happens. Amazingly, Algeria are still in with a pretty good shout - if they win and England don't, Algeria advance. Pray this doesn't happen.
The way I felt at the end of each half in this game really mirrored the way I felt at the end of the USA's first two games in 2006.
At the end of the first half I was morose, deflated, angry at the team for conceding goals so easily, trying desperately to think of a silver lining - much like I was at the end of the 3-0 defeat to the Czech Republic that opened the 2006 Cup.
At the end of the second half I was drained, exhilarated, thrilled to have a point but furious at the officials for stealing two more - much like I was at the end of the 1-1 draw with Italy.
It's obviously the main part of the story, so let's get the officiating out of the way first. First of all: it was a goal. Of course it was a goal. Unlike DaMarcus Beasley's "game-winning goal" in the Italy game, which was called back for a tough but legitimate offsides on Brian McBride, there is simply no way to defend the whistle blowing in this situation. This wasn't even a case of a guy being too quick to call a foul; any foul was quite clearly on Slovenia. The ref - Koman Coulibaly of Mali, officiating his first ever World Cup game - wasn't trigger-happy, he was incompetent. Or crooked. Given that he didn't even blow the full-time whistle properly, I lean toward the former, but an awful lot of questionable calls went against the US in the first half (including a ludicrous yellow card on Robbie Findley for having the temerity to take a ball off the face in the Slovenian box, though this does spare us having to watch Findley refuse to shoot from five yards out in the Algeria game, for which he's now suspended). It's ironic that we'd spent the first week of the tournament talking about how good the officiating had been - with the red card on Tim Cahill in the Germany/Australia game the only really poor decision of note - and then we got, in one day, Alberto Undiano Mallenco doing his best impersonation of Valentin Ivanov (and potentially submarining Germany's tournament in the process) and Coulibaly's performance, one of the worst from an all-around standpoint that I can remember seeing in a football game. Even Graham Poll's three-yellow-card game (Croatia/Australia 2006) wasn't as bad back to front as this one was.
But with that out of the way, let's face it: we can say what we want about Coulibaly - and I have - but he didn't cost the US the win. Bad refereeing decisions, sadly, are part of football - part of sports - and they're just going to happen. The trick is not to put yourself in a position where they can cost you a game. And by going down 2-0 in the first half thanks to yet more shoddy defending, the Americans put themselves in a position where Coulibaly's decision could cost them the game. Leaving Valter Birsa unchallenged from 24 yards in the thirteenth minute cost them a win. Letting Zlatan Ljubljankic get completely behind the defense in the 42nd minute cost them a win. Coulibaly's awful call cost them the win, yes. They were absolutely cheated. But ultimately, what they could control were those two goals, neither of which should have been given away as easily as they were. And if they don't give those goals away, the bad call never gets a chance to matter.
And really, that's what the US need to focus on going forward. You can't fix the refereeing going into the next game (though I would figure it couldn't be this bad). But you can at least try to fix your own poor defense (more so in first halves) and inability to keep from conceding in the first fifteen minutes of games. We're all mad about the call, but that's not going to solve anything. They've got to go forward and figure out how to beat Algeria, without worrying about what the refs might do. Play well enough and you don't give the refs a chance to ruin it.
In some ways, I'm glad the US didn't get the win here. A win basically vindicates their propensity for going behind - well, hey, you can never count the Americans out! - even though their recent results prove that it need not be that way. I don't want to see the team that showed up in this first half against Algeria. I want to see the team that needed to beat Egypt 3-0 to advance in the Confederations Cup and did. I want to see the team that beat Spain 2-0, or that jumped out to a 2-0 lead on Brazil after 27 minutes. That's the team that needs to show up, and that's the team that had better show up. Because here's a prediction I will make for you: if the US trail Algeria 2-0 at halftime on Wednesday, their tournament will be over.
Serbia 1-0 Germany
Weird game. Germany never looked like the side that showed up to stomp Australia until after a few soft yellow cards (apparently any foul from behind deserved a card?) that culminated in Miroslav Klose being sent off and Serbia putting in a goal just two minutes later. Even down a man, Germany looked the better side for much of the second half - gaining a penalty that could have tied it only to see Lukas Podolski miss - and I found myself, bizarrely, rooting for the Germans to find an equalizer simply because I felt it was no less than they deserved. It wasn't to be, which is a shame, but on the other hand it blows Group D wide open and makes tomorrow's Ghana-Australia tilt a lot more fascinating.
England 0-0 Algeria
You really wonder what the final day of Group C - Wednesday the 23rd - has in store for us. When discussing the scenarios that could see the US advance, I had always assumed England beating Algeria as a given. Now things are all screwed up. I didn't see this game, but from what I've heard England looked pretty awful offensively, thanks in part to a stout Algerian defense. That kind of terrifies me for Wednesday, but hey - we only need one goal. (Just so long as we don't freaking give up any.)
The most amazing thing about this result is it means it is entirely possible - though of course you would not want to count on this - that the US can advance to the second round simply by drawing Algeria, which would make them the first team to advance to the second round of the World Cup without getting a win since Chile in 1998. Here are the possible scenarios:
US defeat Algeria
Obviously preferable. A win over Algeria advances the US automatically. If it comes along with a draw in England/Slovenia, the US and Slovenia advance, with the US coming first in the group if they win by two goals or more, or win by one goal but score more total goals than Slovenia. If Slovenia win, they top the group and the US come second. If England win, the US and England advance, with first place in the group determined by who won by more goals; if they won by the same number of goals, it's reasonably likely that the US would win the second tiebreaker as they currently have a two-goal edge on England in total goals scored in the group.
US draw Algeria
This would be annoying, and yet if England don't win (which looks more possible by the second) it would almost certainly advance the US anyway. If the US and Algeria draw, that gives the US three points and Algeria two; an England loss to Slovenia would leave the English on two points, and the Americans would advance in second place. An England/Slovenia draw would also see Slovenia win the group, with the US and England tied for second, but the US come into Wednesday with a two-goal advantage in total goals scored, which presumably would be difficult for England to overturn - if the US drew 1-1, England would have to draw 3-3 just to force the next tiebreaker, an unlikely result. However, if that did happen, advancement would be determined by the drawing of lots. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
US lose to Algeria
Obviously the US are out if this happens. Amazingly, Algeria are still in with a pretty good shout - if they win and England don't, Algeria advance. Pray this doesn't happen.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Seven
It's starting to get serious.
Argentina 4-1 South Korea
The score line flatters the South Americans; it was 2-1 at halftime, although South Korea had never really looked like scoring until a defensive miscue by Argentina right before the half. As good as South Korea had looked against Greece, they couldn't get much going today except for a period midway through the second half where it briefly looked like they were seizing control - and then Argentina got their third and fourth goals just four minutes apart and put the game away. Argentina dominated the possession, with more than 60% of it, and they kind of have to; while they set up in a 4-3-3, they play more like a 2-5-3, dominating possession in the midfield, and both Messi and Tevez are killers with the ball at their feet. Higuain made the most of their distribution, scoring a hat trick that killed off the game after South Korea had opened the scoring with an own goal.
The real question is how Argentina will do in the knockouts. I fully expect them to breeze past Greece (more on them in a minute), but what happens when they run into a team like Germany that defends pretty well and has the offensive skills to expose a shaky defense?
Greece 2-1 Nigeria
I know they just got their first ever win at the World Cup, and I hate to be a buzzkill, but Greece: you're still terrible. I didn't see the game, but everything I've read suggests that Nigeria were in control of the game until Sani Kaita's Beckham-'98-esque red card that left the Super Eagles with an hour to defend a one-goal lead with ten men. Not surprisingly, they couldn't - although even then, both of Greece's goals were fairly weak. The first came via a huge deflection off a Nigerian defender, and the second was off a rare mistake by Vincent Enyeama, who let a standard shot bounce off him and right onto the feet of Vasilis Torosidis. Even then, Nigeria might have managed a draw had not Chinedu Ogbuke missed an open net from eight yards away.
Oddly, Nigeria still have a perfectly reasonable chance to win the group. With Argentina at six points and likely to beat Greece, and South Korea and Greece both at 3, Nigeria need only defeat South Korea to advance. That could be a very good game assuming South Korea don't count on Argentina beating Greece and play for a draw.
Mexico 2-0 France
Players who prominently appear in Nike's "Write the Future" ad: Didier Drogba, Fabio Cannavaro, Franck Ribery, Wayne Rooney, Ronaldinho, Cristiano Ronaldo. Total record of those players at the World Cup so far: 0-5-1 (Ronaldinho, of course, is not even on the Brazil squad this year). Ribery now becomes the first of the group to suffer a loss, and it becomes clear how much Zinedine Zidane meant to the French. With Zidane, the French won the 1998 World Cup, as well as Euro 2000, and made the final game in 2006; without him, they crashed out of the 2002 World Cup without scoring a goal (he did play in the third game but was never fully fit). And here we are again - while they may score against South Africa, France are almost certain to crash out of the World Cup, thus cementing an impressive alternation of win, crash out, make the final, crash out, in four straight Cups. Hard to do.
Meanwhile, the Mexican win means Mexico and Uruguay are almost certain to advance; both would move on with a draw in their final game, while even a loss by one would require a significant shift in goal differential to allow either France or South Africa to pass through instead. This sets up one of two intriguing rematches in the second round - either a rematch of Mexico/Argentina, one of the better games of the 2006 second round and ended on Maxi Rodriguez's wonder goal, or Uruguay/Argentina, a tantalizing border war as well as a rematch of the first ever World Cup final from 1930.
Tomorrow: the moment of truth for the Americans. Outside of CONCACAF qualifying, the US are pretty unaccustomed to being the favorites, and while neither a draw nor even a loss would completely end things, it would certainly leave us needing help. It's a must-win. Shudder.
Argentina 4-1 South Korea
The score line flatters the South Americans; it was 2-1 at halftime, although South Korea had never really looked like scoring until a defensive miscue by Argentina right before the half. As good as South Korea had looked against Greece, they couldn't get much going today except for a period midway through the second half where it briefly looked like they were seizing control - and then Argentina got their third and fourth goals just four minutes apart and put the game away. Argentina dominated the possession, with more than 60% of it, and they kind of have to; while they set up in a 4-3-3, they play more like a 2-5-3, dominating possession in the midfield, and both Messi and Tevez are killers with the ball at their feet. Higuain made the most of their distribution, scoring a hat trick that killed off the game after South Korea had opened the scoring with an own goal.
The real question is how Argentina will do in the knockouts. I fully expect them to breeze past Greece (more on them in a minute), but what happens when they run into a team like Germany that defends pretty well and has the offensive skills to expose a shaky defense?
Greece 2-1 Nigeria
I know they just got their first ever win at the World Cup, and I hate to be a buzzkill, but Greece: you're still terrible. I didn't see the game, but everything I've read suggests that Nigeria were in control of the game until Sani Kaita's Beckham-'98-esque red card that left the Super Eagles with an hour to defend a one-goal lead with ten men. Not surprisingly, they couldn't - although even then, both of Greece's goals were fairly weak. The first came via a huge deflection off a Nigerian defender, and the second was off a rare mistake by Vincent Enyeama, who let a standard shot bounce off him and right onto the feet of Vasilis Torosidis. Even then, Nigeria might have managed a draw had not Chinedu Ogbuke missed an open net from eight yards away.
Oddly, Nigeria still have a perfectly reasonable chance to win the group. With Argentina at six points and likely to beat Greece, and South Korea and Greece both at 3, Nigeria need only defeat South Korea to advance. That could be a very good game assuming South Korea don't count on Argentina beating Greece and play for a draw.
Mexico 2-0 France
Players who prominently appear in Nike's "Write the Future" ad: Didier Drogba, Fabio Cannavaro, Franck Ribery, Wayne Rooney, Ronaldinho, Cristiano Ronaldo. Total record of those players at the World Cup so far: 0-5-1 (Ronaldinho, of course, is not even on the Brazil squad this year). Ribery now becomes the first of the group to suffer a loss, and it becomes clear how much Zinedine Zidane meant to the French. With Zidane, the French won the 1998 World Cup, as well as Euro 2000, and made the final game in 2006; without him, they crashed out of the 2002 World Cup without scoring a goal (he did play in the third game but was never fully fit). And here we are again - while they may score against South Africa, France are almost certain to crash out of the World Cup, thus cementing an impressive alternation of win, crash out, make the final, crash out, in four straight Cups. Hard to do.
Meanwhile, the Mexican win means Mexico and Uruguay are almost certain to advance; both would move on with a draw in their final game, while even a loss by one would require a significant shift in goal differential to allow either France or South Africa to pass through instead. This sets up one of two intriguing rematches in the second round - either a rematch of Mexico/Argentina, one of the better games of the 2006 second round and ended on Maxi Rodriguez's wonder goal, or Uruguay/Argentina, a tantalizing border war as well as a rematch of the first ever World Cup final from 1930.
Tomorrow: the moment of truth for the Americans. Outside of CONCACAF qualifying, the US are pretty unaccustomed to being the favorites, and while neither a draw nor even a loss would completely end things, it would certainly leave us needing help. It's a must-win. Shudder.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
World Cup 2010: Group Analysis, first set of games
Group A
Since South Africa and Uruguay have played their second games already, this will be slightly more concrete than the others.
1. Uruguay, 1-1-0, 4 points
2. Mexico, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
3. France, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. South Africa, 0-1-1, 1 point, -3 GD
Let's assume France and Mexico draw tomorrow. For South Africa to advance, they would need to beat France in their final game, and have Mexico fail to win. Fortunately for South Africa, Uruguay aren't likely to punt the final game knowing that they need at least a draw to top the group. Unfortunately for South Africa, beating France isn't exactly the easiest ask. At this point, Uruguay seem the likely bet to top the group, and advancement is almost certain. The only way Uruguay would fail to advance is if Mexico and France draw and then both win in the third set of games; as long as Uruguay don't lose to Mexico, they'll move on. Who advances with them will depend on the Mexico/France result; the winner there certainly takes control, but a draw leaves every team in play. If I had to guess, I'd say it should be France, especially since they're probably more like to beat South Africa than Mexico are to beat Uruguay.
Group B
1. South Korea, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Argentina, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Nigeria, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Greece, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD
Based on the first games, tomorrow's Argentina-South Korea tilt has real potential. I still expect Argentina to top the group, but we'll see. Nigeria have to hope for a win over Greece and Argentina defeating South Korea, leading to a win-or-go-home game between South Korea and Nigeria in the third set. While Greece were surprisingly poor in the first game, this still has potential to be perhaps our most exciting group overall.
Group C
1. Slovenia, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. England, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
2t. USA, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
4. Algeria, 0-0-1, 0 points
While the second set of games is massive in most if not all of the groups, it is particularly so here, especially where the Americans are concerned. A win over Slovenia is a virtual must for the US; while a draw would not cripple their chances, a loss would be devastating. Losing to Slovenia (combined with an expected England win over Algeria) means the only American hope would be a comfortable win over Algeria and, less likely, Slovenia going on to take all nine points; a draw, while it would make things uncomfortable, would still enable the US to advance with merely a win over Algeria and a Slovenia loss to England. A win, on the other hand, would make the US masters of their own destinies, requiring just a further win or draw with Algeria to advance regardless of the England/Slovenia outcome. If the hope is to avoid Germany, of course, the US will want to win both, by as many goals as possible.
Group D
1. Germany, 1-0-0, 3 points, 4 GD
2. Ghana, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Serbia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Australia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -4 GD
Germany look set to take all nine points, meaning the only question is who comes second. Ghana are obviously in pole position; because of Australia's awful GD, the Black Stars need only draw the Socceroos on Saturday to feel pretty comfortable about advancing. Assuming Germany beat Serbia, Ghana could lose to Germany and have Australia win and still advance easily, so long as neither game was a blowout. Australia, of course, absolutely must win over Ghana to have any confidence that they can progress with a result in the Serbia game, due to that goal differential.
Group E
1. Netherlands, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Japan, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Cameroon, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Denmark, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD
Saturday's Denmark-Cameroon game is probably the key matchup here. I fully expect the Netherlands to defeat Japan, meaning that the Denmark-Cameroon winner - assuming we get one - moves into good position to advance. Denmark, having played the Dutch first, are almost masters of their own destiny at this point; assuming the Dutch will probably beat both Japan and Cameroon, Denmark need only do the same to move on. For Japan, the key will be a result in the Netherlands game; even a draw there means that a result in their tilt with Denmark promises advancement. Cameroon desperately need a win over Denmark, but they may be in trouble regardless with a final matchup against the Dutch.
Group F
1t. Italy, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. New Zealand, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Paraguay, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Slovakia, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
Winston Reid's late header really shook things up, making the entire group completely level as it did. It also makes the Paraguay-Slovakia game perhaps the most important of the entire group stage. Had Slovakia won the first game, a draw here would have been okay; now, with Italy looming for the Slovaks in their final game, a win is vital if they hope to advance. Even the minnows are in with a shout, but New Zealand need to pull out a win somewhere and I don't really see that happening. Italy and Paraguay are still my likely bets to advance.
Group G
1. Brazil, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. Ivory Coast, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
2t. Portugal, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. North Korea, 0-0-1, 0 points
Ivory Coast pretty much played Portugal for a draw, and you have to imagine they'll do the same with Brazil. After all, two draws and a win over North Korea - or even a loss to Brazil and a win over North Korea - are likely to put the Elephants through. However, losing to Brazil is both the most likely proposition and a bit risky; assuming Portugal also defeat North Korea, it's possible that Brazil and Portugal might then be happy to play for a draw in their final game, not unlike West Germany and Austria in 1982. Sunday's Ivory Coast-Brazil game thus threatens to be as dull as Ivory Coast-Portugal was with the Ivorians potentially desperate not to lose. However, their defense isn't as stout as North Korea's and Brazil still got two goals in that game.
Group H
1t. Chile, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
1t. Switzerland, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
3t. Honduras, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD
3t. Spain, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD
Spain and Honduras play Monday in a game I'm fully expecting Spain to win about 5-0 now. Chile and Switzerland meet on the same day in a crucial game. If they draw, both can advance at the expense of Spain so long as neither lose their last game. Because Spain will almost certainly beat Honduras, and I expect them to do so comfortably, a Chile-Switzerland winner is not guaranteed advancement. A win by Chile would put them on six points with Switzerland and (presumably) Spain on three, but Switzerland could beat Honduras and Spain beat Chile in the third set of games, risking Chile getting dumped out depending on differentials. Ditto Switzerland; a win over Chile puts them on six points, but they would still need to get a result from the Honduras game or have Spain not win against Chile. Spain are still perfectly capable of going through if they can defeat Honduras and Chile, but things would be easier for them if Chile do not win the Switzerland game, as a Chile win over Switzerland and a Swiss win over Honduras combined with two wins by Spain leads to a three-way tie that could still always see the Spanish eliminated on GD. Of course, thumping Honduras would limit that likelihood.
Since South Africa and Uruguay have played their second games already, this will be slightly more concrete than the others.
1. Uruguay, 1-1-0, 4 points
2. Mexico, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
3. France, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. South Africa, 0-1-1, 1 point, -3 GD
Let's assume France and Mexico draw tomorrow. For South Africa to advance, they would need to beat France in their final game, and have Mexico fail to win. Fortunately for South Africa, Uruguay aren't likely to punt the final game knowing that they need at least a draw to top the group. Unfortunately for South Africa, beating France isn't exactly the easiest ask. At this point, Uruguay seem the likely bet to top the group, and advancement is almost certain. The only way Uruguay would fail to advance is if Mexico and France draw and then both win in the third set of games; as long as Uruguay don't lose to Mexico, they'll move on. Who advances with them will depend on the Mexico/France result; the winner there certainly takes control, but a draw leaves every team in play. If I had to guess, I'd say it should be France, especially since they're probably more like to beat South Africa than Mexico are to beat Uruguay.
Group B
1. South Korea, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Argentina, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Nigeria, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Greece, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD
Based on the first games, tomorrow's Argentina-South Korea tilt has real potential. I still expect Argentina to top the group, but we'll see. Nigeria have to hope for a win over Greece and Argentina defeating South Korea, leading to a win-or-go-home game between South Korea and Nigeria in the third set. While Greece were surprisingly poor in the first game, this still has potential to be perhaps our most exciting group overall.
Group C
1. Slovenia, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. England, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
2t. USA, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
4. Algeria, 0-0-1, 0 points
While the second set of games is massive in most if not all of the groups, it is particularly so here, especially where the Americans are concerned. A win over Slovenia is a virtual must for the US; while a draw would not cripple their chances, a loss would be devastating. Losing to Slovenia (combined with an expected England win over Algeria) means the only American hope would be a comfortable win over Algeria and, less likely, Slovenia going on to take all nine points; a draw, while it would make things uncomfortable, would still enable the US to advance with merely a win over Algeria and a Slovenia loss to England. A win, on the other hand, would make the US masters of their own destinies, requiring just a further win or draw with Algeria to advance regardless of the England/Slovenia outcome. If the hope is to avoid Germany, of course, the US will want to win both, by as many goals as possible.
Group D
1. Germany, 1-0-0, 3 points, 4 GD
2. Ghana, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Serbia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Australia, 0-0-1, 0 points, -4 GD
Germany look set to take all nine points, meaning the only question is who comes second. Ghana are obviously in pole position; because of Australia's awful GD, the Black Stars need only draw the Socceroos on Saturday to feel pretty comfortable about advancing. Assuming Germany beat Serbia, Ghana could lose to Germany and have Australia win and still advance easily, so long as neither game was a blowout. Australia, of course, absolutely must win over Ghana to have any confidence that they can progress with a result in the Serbia game, due to that goal differential.
Group E
1. Netherlands, 1-0-0, 3 points, 2 GD
2. Japan, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GD
3. Cameroon, 0-0-1, 0 points, -1 GD
4. Denmark, 0-0-1, 0 points, -2 GD
Saturday's Denmark-Cameroon game is probably the key matchup here. I fully expect the Netherlands to defeat Japan, meaning that the Denmark-Cameroon winner - assuming we get one - moves into good position to advance. Denmark, having played the Dutch first, are almost masters of their own destiny at this point; assuming the Dutch will probably beat both Japan and Cameroon, Denmark need only do the same to move on. For Japan, the key will be a result in the Netherlands game; even a draw there means that a result in their tilt with Denmark promises advancement. Cameroon desperately need a win over Denmark, but they may be in trouble regardless with a final matchup against the Dutch.
Group F
1t. Italy, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. New Zealand, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Paraguay, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
1t. Slovakia, 0-1-0, 1 point, 1 GS, 0 GD
Winston Reid's late header really shook things up, making the entire group completely level as it did. It also makes the Paraguay-Slovakia game perhaps the most important of the entire group stage. Had Slovakia won the first game, a draw here would have been okay; now, with Italy looming for the Slovaks in their final game, a win is vital if they hope to advance. Even the minnows are in with a shout, but New Zealand need to pull out a win somewhere and I don't really see that happening. Italy and Paraguay are still my likely bets to advance.
Group G
1. Brazil, 1-0-0, 3 points
2t. Ivory Coast, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
2t. Portugal, 0-1-0, 1 point, 0 GS, 0 GD
4. North Korea, 0-0-1, 0 points
Ivory Coast pretty much played Portugal for a draw, and you have to imagine they'll do the same with Brazil. After all, two draws and a win over North Korea - or even a loss to Brazil and a win over North Korea - are likely to put the Elephants through. However, losing to Brazil is both the most likely proposition and a bit risky; assuming Portugal also defeat North Korea, it's possible that Brazil and Portugal might then be happy to play for a draw in their final game, not unlike West Germany and Austria in 1982. Sunday's Ivory Coast-Brazil game thus threatens to be as dull as Ivory Coast-Portugal was with the Ivorians potentially desperate not to lose. However, their defense isn't as stout as North Korea's and Brazil still got two goals in that game.
Group H
1t. Chile, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
1t. Switzerland, 1-0-0, 3 points, 1 GS, 1 GD
3t. Honduras, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD
3t. Spain, 0-0-1, 0 points, 0 GS, -1 GD
Spain and Honduras play Monday in a game I'm fully expecting Spain to win about 5-0 now. Chile and Switzerland meet on the same day in a crucial game. If they draw, both can advance at the expense of Spain so long as neither lose their last game. Because Spain will almost certainly beat Honduras, and I expect them to do so comfortably, a Chile-Switzerland winner is not guaranteed advancement. A win by Chile would put them on six points with Switzerland and (presumably) Spain on three, but Switzerland could beat Honduras and Spain beat Chile in the third set of games, risking Chile getting dumped out depending on differentials. Ditto Switzerland; a win over Chile puts them on six points, but they would still need to get a result from the Honduras game or have Spain not win against Chile. Spain are still perfectly capable of going through if they can defeat Honduras and Chile, but things would be easier for them if Chile do not win the Switzerland game, as a Chile win over Switzerland and a Swiss win over Honduras combined with two wins by Spain leads to a three-way tie that could still always see the Spanish eliminated on GD. Of course, thumping Honduras would limit that likelihood.
World Cup 2010: Day Six
What a day, huh?
Chile 1-0 Honduras
I already covered this in the live blog, so I won't add much except to say that with the other Group H result, Chile's three points go a long way toward their advancement.
Switzerland 1-0 Spain
Enormous stunner, of course. I didn't see it live, but I did go back and watch the replay to see if I could get a sense for what happened, and what it comes down to is this: Switzerland set up for a draw from the start. Even in the first few minutes they were playing with eight men behind the ball. They knew they couldn't hang with Spain if the game were wide open, so they didn't even try. In many ways I was reminded of the US upset of England in 1950 - Spain dominated possession (74%), had a ton of shots (25, though only 5 on goal), and spent much more time in the attacking third... but they just could not put a shot in. Swiss keeper Diego Benaglio deserves a lot of credit for this, although so does the crossbar, which helped deny a Xabi Alonso bullet in the 70th minute. Meanwhile, a long kick from Benaglio started the play which led to Switzerland's goal, a bit of a messy affair that came completely against the run of play. Spain tried to push, but in the last few minutes the Swiss put all ten men behind the ball and the Spanish just couldn't break through.
So what does this do to the group? We'll address that, along with the other groups after one set of games, in a follow-up post.
Uruguay 3-0 South Africa
Whatever hope was generated by South Africa drawing Mexico in the first game was pretty well extinguished by the foot of Diego Forlan. I listened to this game on the radio and Uruguay seemed to be the better team rather easily; while the South Africans had a significant possession edge, this was mostly in midfield; Uruguay had 19 shots, six on goal, to South Africa's 11 shots, of which three were on goal.
The critical moment of the game, of course, came in the 76th minute, when Uruguay's Luis Suarez broke for goal. South African keeper Itumeleng Khune came out to challenge the ball, but ended up tripping Suarez - or at least, he ended up making contact with Suarez and Suarez went to ground. The referee called a penalty, which was reasonable, and then showed Khune a red card, which was probably extreme. Forlan converted the penalty, and at 2-0 and South Africa down to ten men the game was effectively over. So, for that matter, is South Africa's World Cup.
Chile 1-0 Honduras
I already covered this in the live blog, so I won't add much except to say that with the other Group H result, Chile's three points go a long way toward their advancement.
Switzerland 1-0 Spain
Enormous stunner, of course. I didn't see it live, but I did go back and watch the replay to see if I could get a sense for what happened, and what it comes down to is this: Switzerland set up for a draw from the start. Even in the first few minutes they were playing with eight men behind the ball. They knew they couldn't hang with Spain if the game were wide open, so they didn't even try. In many ways I was reminded of the US upset of England in 1950 - Spain dominated possession (74%), had a ton of shots (25, though only 5 on goal), and spent much more time in the attacking third... but they just could not put a shot in. Swiss keeper Diego Benaglio deserves a lot of credit for this, although so does the crossbar, which helped deny a Xabi Alonso bullet in the 70th minute. Meanwhile, a long kick from Benaglio started the play which led to Switzerland's goal, a bit of a messy affair that came completely against the run of play. Spain tried to push, but in the last few minutes the Swiss put all ten men behind the ball and the Spanish just couldn't break through.
So what does this do to the group? We'll address that, along with the other groups after one set of games, in a follow-up post.
Uruguay 3-0 South Africa
Whatever hope was generated by South Africa drawing Mexico in the first game was pretty well extinguished by the foot of Diego Forlan. I listened to this game on the radio and Uruguay seemed to be the better team rather easily; while the South Africans had a significant possession edge, this was mostly in midfield; Uruguay had 19 shots, six on goal, to South Africa's 11 shots, of which three were on goal.
The critical moment of the game, of course, came in the 76th minute, when Uruguay's Luis Suarez broke for goal. South African keeper Itumeleng Khune came out to challenge the ball, but ended up tripping Suarez - or at least, he ended up making contact with Suarez and Suarez went to ground. The referee called a penalty, which was reasonable, and then showed Khune a red card, which was probably extreme. Forlan converted the penalty, and at 2-0 and South Africa down to ten men the game was effectively over. So, for that matter, is South Africa's World Cup.
World Cup 2010: Day Six - Honduras/Chile Live Blog!
FULL TIME: That's it for now. Will I try this again? Maybe for one or both of the US games, but probably not for any more of the neutral games unless it's a particularly scintillating matchup. We'll see, I guess.
FULL TIME: Chile have won it 1-0. Well deserved, certainly, but Honduras were extremely poor and Chile should have scored more goals. Fortunately for them, the most likely situation in which GD will matter for them would be up against Switzerland, and the Swiss are not exactly known for their high-powered offense.
94': Gonzalez pushes the ball to goal again, and the whistle blows as Valladares collects it.
93': Honduras take a quick corner and nothing comes of it. Chile break and have 4-on-3 for a minute before Gonzalez curls it over the bar.
92': Just like that, it's finally given: three minutes. Meaning Honduras has one more.
92': Was it ever announced how much added time there was?
91': Gonzalez fires wide left. Honduras might want to try getting the ball at some point.
91': Harkes notes that we can't totally judge Chile based on this because "it is against Honduras." Yeah, pretty much.
90': Welcome takes a shot from the top of the box but it's not especially close. Honduras have about three minutes to somehow find an equalizer.
89': Fernandez is unmarked at the top of the box but the ball runs off his foot.
88': Sanchez goes down under contact, looks up at the ref, winces and grabs himself, then looks up again to make sure there was a whistle. This is why people hate soccer, you guys. Knock it off.
87': Valdivia finally comes off for a sub.
86': Healey and Harkes invoke New Zealand's late goal to draw Slovakia. Honduras, inspired by this pep talk, get the ball into the box but Bravo collects easily.
84': A Honduran fan in the crowd clasps her hands together and rocks back and forth. Sorry, lady; Chile's fans already prayed and you can't both win.
83': A header from Medel is just wide, but he's offsides anyway. Chile have hardly dropped back, possibly because Honduras have never shown a reason to worry about their attack.
81': Chile have more than 30 touches in the Honduran box and Honduras have one in the Chilean box, according to Healey. Sounds about right. Chile actually make a substitution.
80': Anyway, that would be 48 years between World Cup wins for Chile, which would pass the old record of 44 years by the United States. Sanchez goes for goal but his shot from 20+ yards goes well wide.
79': I don't think Honduras has spent more than a few minutes even in the Chilean half since the break.
78': Honduras put in Walter Martinez as their final sub. ESPN lists him at 5'5".
77': A free kick bounces around but Valladares is able to collect.
75': Chile almost score again, but Valladares makes a save, Sanchez appears to handle the rebound, and then Valdivia puts it in but is offsides.
75': Chile hasn't won a World Cup game since 1962, the year they hosted.
73': Usually this stuff evens up a bit, but with less than 20 minutes to play, Chile still has two-thirds of the possession. Chile has another couple chances, but a shot is blocked and Isla's header goes well wide.
72': Valdivia limps off but doesn't seem to be getting substituted just yet. Honduras attempt to build on the man advantage but a header into the box is collected by Bravo. Still don't think Honduras have touched the ball in the Chilean box.
71': I still don't think Honduras touched that one in the box. The ball deflects off Ponce's elbow, but no handball call, which I think is right. Jorge Valdivia picks up a random cramp and we get a break in the action.
70': After a nice move, Palacios wins a corner.
69': Chile almost score again but for a last-second tackle by Hendry Thomas. Honduras almost touch it in the Chilean box 30 seconds later, but it's cleared.
68': Healey and Harkes talk about the US-Slovenia game, and how Slovenia's win over Algeria makes the US feel they have to beat Slovenia. Sure, but they really should have felt that way already. You don't want to go into a game like that thinking a draw is cool. In a related story, I had a dream last night that Slovenia won all three games in the group. Let's hope it was something I ate.
67': Honduras control the ball for about 20 seconds and then lose it out of bounds. I could probably just copy and paste this.
65': English football-ism: "asking questions." As in, "Chile have been asking most of the questions today." The main question being "Man, how much does Honduras suck?"
64': Valladares makes an incredible save on a header from about six feet. Ponce is kicking himself that he couldn't bang that in.
63': Welcome flops goofily by stumbling backwards over a Chilean but gets the foul call. Does this count as getting into the Chilean box? Honduras gets right to the edge but it's an offsides call.
62': Taking bets on the next time Honduras actually gets the ball into the Chilean box. Meanwhile, Sanchez makes a run and then rolls it just wide left of the Honduran goal.
61': Not only is Chile much more threatening, their attacks are a lot prettier.
60': Pavon is substituted, with Georgie Welcome coming on. That's a fun name.
58': Healey says of a Chilean player, "It's a real mystery why he hasn't reproduced his South American form in Europe." I don't even know who he's talking about, but I promise you it is not that much of a mystery.
57': Sanchez gets stepped on in the box, but the ref misses it. It was probably unintentional anyway.
56': Nothing doing on the header, but Chile regroup yet again.
55': Sanchez abuses Espinoza and then gets taken down, earning a free kick from the right side, maybe 24 yards out.
54': Healey references Honduras' MLS connections yet again. Given how bad they've looked, I probably wouldn't keep talking about that.
53': Valladares must have an awful goal kick, as Figueroa takes another.
52': Another good chance from Chile, though it's eventually called for offsides as it falls to the last man.
50': Chile take the corner shot but can't fire the ball through a scrum. Pavon ends up on the ground in the box, apparently hurting himself on the clearance. Chile are forced to start over from back in their end.
48': Beausejour almost has an open shot at goal, but Figueroa just gets in the way with a challenge that sends Beausejour sprawling. There's going to be a penalty at some point if this keeps up. Sanchez then gets the ball taken away in the box but wins a corner for Chile.
47': Honduras seem to want a penalty, but Medel does get a touch on the ball. Very risky challenge but it paid off, as another Honduran attack is stifled.
46': Honduras, like New Zealand, are making their second appearance and first since 1982. Right now they look a lot worse than New Zealand.
HALF: I make it back from the shower with a couple minutes to spare, as the Chilean team comes back out to the field. Are soccer halftimes short or do I just spend that much time in the shower? On second thought, don't answer that.
HALF: Certainly a deserved 1-0 lead for Chile. For CONCACAF's sake, I'd love to see Honduras do anything in the second half, as the team that showed up in the first half is going out of this tournament without a point.
45': Not a bad kick from Nunez; Bravo has to tip it over. After the ensuing corner is deflected away, the first half whistle blows. Figures that it would happen right as Honduras was getting anything going.
45': A goal kick is taken by someone other than a goalie, as Figueroa boots it out for Honduras. Once again, I don't think I've ever seen that happen before. Honduras end up with a free kick 30ish yards out.
43': A graphic shows us that Chile has a 63-37 possession edge, and Healey confirms that Honduras have not touched the ball in the Chilean box yet. Chile get into Honduras' box again, and Honduras gets lucky with an inadvertent handball that is not called.
42': Honduras yet again gets something going, but can't get it into the box as a pass in Pavon's direction falls short and Chile goes back the other way. Valdivia springs Beausejour but Honduras clear his cross for a throw-in.
40': Beausejour's father is Haitian, and was in Haiti for the earthquake. Lots of earthquakes in that family.
39': Nunez takes a shot from outside the box, but it's not particularly close. Honduras have yet to really get a good chance.
38': A deep ball, but the Chilean forward is just a little offsides.
37': Chile nearly score another. Honduras' defense is starting to break down a bit.
34': GOAL! The ball is sent across the face of goal, and Beausejour is credited with it although the replay makes it look like Mendoza, the Honduran defender, had a lot to do with the ball going in. Still, Chile deserve the lead here.
33': Wilson Palacios is booked despite not seeming to do anything. The ref is not having the greatest of games, it must be said.
32': Chile break, then are stopped; Honduras break in response and are stopped; Chile break again. Somewhat exciting even if none of the breaks do so much as get into the area.
30': The South African fans have organized some sort of vuvuzela-playing conga line.
29': Ramon Nunez of Honduras dives horribly and gets the foul call. He sort of looks like a young Sammy Sosa.
27': Chile kick the ball out of bounds while Pavon rolls around on the ground. After throwing it in, Honduras look for a second like they aren't just going to give it back, which I don't think I've ever seen. The Chilean defender blocks the ball and then Honduras push it to Chile.
25': US defender Jonathan Bornstein is apparently a huge fan favorite in Honduras because he scored the goal against Costa Rica that allowed Honduras to qualify for the World Cup ahead of the Costa Ricans. Meanwhile, Vidal blasts a header over the goal off a corner.
23': Adrian Healey says the game has "the aroma of goals about it" despite being so far goalless. I guess?
22': Claudio Bravo grabs the corner easily and then sets up an attack with a long punt. Valdivia eventually gets a shot off that deflects out for a Chilean corner. Sanchez falls down while attempt to shoot from 20 yards and the ball goes out for a goal kick.
20': Honduras again manage to organize a counterattack and earn a corner after a long shot goes off the back of a Chilean defender.
19': Chile's Fernandez gets booked for a slightly rash challenge.
18': ...and nothing doing. It's a bit high/long. Honduras get on the break and then Pavon finds himself wide open about 25 yards from goal, but he hits it weakly wide left.
17': Chile win a corner...
16': Good tackle by Mendoza of Honduras to take the ball away from Beausejour near the touchline.
15': Honduras get the ball through the box for the first time, but it's not threatening.
14': Adrian Healey informs us that there is an iPhone app that makes the vuvuzela sound, just in case you're trying to figure out a way to be a complete asshole to everyone you know.
13': Valdivia overhits a slotted pass into the area and Beausejour can't catch up with it. Again, we've seen this a lot, although I'm not sure you can blame the ball when the pass is along the ground.
12': Honduras start to come forward, then lose the ball after kicking it around the midfield. They look pretty bad so far.
11': Another long ball by Chile goes well past its intended target. Honduras gives it back to them rather quickly.
10': Fact of the day: Chile calls their coach "The Madman."
9': A couple of nice backheel passes between the Chileans, but the ball goes out off Honduras. Seconds later, Vidal fires a shot from distance that Valladares juggles, but no other Chilean was nearby.
6': Chile gets a free kick from the right side of the field about ten yards out. They're dominating the game early; Honduras hasn't had the ball for more than about 15 seconds at a time. The kick fails, but Chile get a shot on goal out of it, albeit a weak one.
4': Chile gets its first corner but nothing much comes of it. Honduras attempts to break, but Carlos Carmona trips the Honduran and gets a yellow card for his trouble.
3': Fernandez comes close to putting the free kick in; the crowd cheers as it looks for a second like it goes in.
2': Valdivia is challenged by Wilson Palacios and goes down clutching his face after being nudged in the back. Oh good.
1': Chile starts with a long ball that, of course, overruns everyone and goes out for a Honduran goal kick. If the Jabulani is really having an effect, this is it, for me.
6:30 am: The captains greet each other warmly. ESPN shows us the formations; Chile appears to be in a 4-3-3, while Honduras looks to be in something like a 4-2-3-1.
6:28 am: Let's do this.
FULL TIME: Chile have won it 1-0. Well deserved, certainly, but Honduras were extremely poor and Chile should have scored more goals. Fortunately for them, the most likely situation in which GD will matter for them would be up against Switzerland, and the Swiss are not exactly known for their high-powered offense.
94': Gonzalez pushes the ball to goal again, and the whistle blows as Valladares collects it.
93': Honduras take a quick corner and nothing comes of it. Chile break and have 4-on-3 for a minute before Gonzalez curls it over the bar.
92': Just like that, it's finally given: three minutes. Meaning Honduras has one more.
92': Was it ever announced how much added time there was?
91': Gonzalez fires wide left. Honduras might want to try getting the ball at some point.
91': Harkes notes that we can't totally judge Chile based on this because "it is against Honduras." Yeah, pretty much.
90': Welcome takes a shot from the top of the box but it's not especially close. Honduras have about three minutes to somehow find an equalizer.
89': Fernandez is unmarked at the top of the box but the ball runs off his foot.
88': Sanchez goes down under contact, looks up at the ref, winces and grabs himself, then looks up again to make sure there was a whistle. This is why people hate soccer, you guys. Knock it off.
87': Valdivia finally comes off for a sub.
86': Healey and Harkes invoke New Zealand's late goal to draw Slovakia. Honduras, inspired by this pep talk, get the ball into the box but Bravo collects easily.
84': A Honduran fan in the crowd clasps her hands together and rocks back and forth. Sorry, lady; Chile's fans already prayed and you can't both win.
83': A header from Medel is just wide, but he's offsides anyway. Chile have hardly dropped back, possibly because Honduras have never shown a reason to worry about their attack.
81': Chile have more than 30 touches in the Honduran box and Honduras have one in the Chilean box, according to Healey. Sounds about right. Chile actually make a substitution.
80': Anyway, that would be 48 years between World Cup wins for Chile, which would pass the old record of 44 years by the United States. Sanchez goes for goal but his shot from 20+ yards goes well wide.
79': I don't think Honduras has spent more than a few minutes even in the Chilean half since the break.
78': Honduras put in Walter Martinez as their final sub. ESPN lists him at 5'5".
77': A free kick bounces around but Valladares is able to collect.
75': Chile almost score again, but Valladares makes a save, Sanchez appears to handle the rebound, and then Valdivia puts it in but is offsides.
75': Chile hasn't won a World Cup game since 1962, the year they hosted.
73': Usually this stuff evens up a bit, but with less than 20 minutes to play, Chile still has two-thirds of the possession. Chile has another couple chances, but a shot is blocked and Isla's header goes well wide.
72': Valdivia limps off but doesn't seem to be getting substituted just yet. Honduras attempt to build on the man advantage but a header into the box is collected by Bravo. Still don't think Honduras have touched the ball in the Chilean box.
71': I still don't think Honduras touched that one in the box. The ball deflects off Ponce's elbow, but no handball call, which I think is right. Jorge Valdivia picks up a random cramp and we get a break in the action.
70': After a nice move, Palacios wins a corner.
69': Chile almost score again but for a last-second tackle by Hendry Thomas. Honduras almost touch it in the Chilean box 30 seconds later, but it's cleared.
68': Healey and Harkes talk about the US-Slovenia game, and how Slovenia's win over Algeria makes the US feel they have to beat Slovenia. Sure, but they really should have felt that way already. You don't want to go into a game like that thinking a draw is cool. In a related story, I had a dream last night that Slovenia won all three games in the group. Let's hope it was something I ate.
67': Honduras control the ball for about 20 seconds and then lose it out of bounds. I could probably just copy and paste this.
65': English football-ism: "asking questions." As in, "Chile have been asking most of the questions today." The main question being "Man, how much does Honduras suck?"
64': Valladares makes an incredible save on a header from about six feet. Ponce is kicking himself that he couldn't bang that in.
63': Welcome flops goofily by stumbling backwards over a Chilean but gets the foul call. Does this count as getting into the Chilean box? Honduras gets right to the edge but it's an offsides call.
62': Taking bets on the next time Honduras actually gets the ball into the Chilean box. Meanwhile, Sanchez makes a run and then rolls it just wide left of the Honduran goal.
61': Not only is Chile much more threatening, their attacks are a lot prettier.
60': Pavon is substituted, with Georgie Welcome coming on. That's a fun name.
58': Healey says of a Chilean player, "It's a real mystery why he hasn't reproduced his South American form in Europe." I don't even know who he's talking about, but I promise you it is not that much of a mystery.
57': Sanchez gets stepped on in the box, but the ref misses it. It was probably unintentional anyway.
56': Nothing doing on the header, but Chile regroup yet again.
55': Sanchez abuses Espinoza and then gets taken down, earning a free kick from the right side, maybe 24 yards out.
54': Healey references Honduras' MLS connections yet again. Given how bad they've looked, I probably wouldn't keep talking about that.
53': Valladares must have an awful goal kick, as Figueroa takes another.
52': Another good chance from Chile, though it's eventually called for offsides as it falls to the last man.
50': Chile take the corner shot but can't fire the ball through a scrum. Pavon ends up on the ground in the box, apparently hurting himself on the clearance. Chile are forced to start over from back in their end.
48': Beausejour almost has an open shot at goal, but Figueroa just gets in the way with a challenge that sends Beausejour sprawling. There's going to be a penalty at some point if this keeps up. Sanchez then gets the ball taken away in the box but wins a corner for Chile.
47': Honduras seem to want a penalty, but Medel does get a touch on the ball. Very risky challenge but it paid off, as another Honduran attack is stifled.
46': Honduras, like New Zealand, are making their second appearance and first since 1982. Right now they look a lot worse than New Zealand.
HALF: I make it back from the shower with a couple minutes to spare, as the Chilean team comes back out to the field. Are soccer halftimes short or do I just spend that much time in the shower? On second thought, don't answer that.
HALF: Certainly a deserved 1-0 lead for Chile. For CONCACAF's sake, I'd love to see Honduras do anything in the second half, as the team that showed up in the first half is going out of this tournament without a point.
45': Not a bad kick from Nunez; Bravo has to tip it over. After the ensuing corner is deflected away, the first half whistle blows. Figures that it would happen right as Honduras was getting anything going.
45': A goal kick is taken by someone other than a goalie, as Figueroa boots it out for Honduras. Once again, I don't think I've ever seen that happen before. Honduras end up with a free kick 30ish yards out.
43': A graphic shows us that Chile has a 63-37 possession edge, and Healey confirms that Honduras have not touched the ball in the Chilean box yet. Chile get into Honduras' box again, and Honduras gets lucky with an inadvertent handball that is not called.
42': Honduras yet again gets something going, but can't get it into the box as a pass in Pavon's direction falls short and Chile goes back the other way. Valdivia springs Beausejour but Honduras clear his cross for a throw-in.
40': Beausejour's father is Haitian, and was in Haiti for the earthquake. Lots of earthquakes in that family.
39': Nunez takes a shot from outside the box, but it's not particularly close. Honduras have yet to really get a good chance.
38': A deep ball, but the Chilean forward is just a little offsides.
37': Chile nearly score another. Honduras' defense is starting to break down a bit.
34': GOAL! The ball is sent across the face of goal, and Beausejour is credited with it although the replay makes it look like Mendoza, the Honduran defender, had a lot to do with the ball going in. Still, Chile deserve the lead here.
33': Wilson Palacios is booked despite not seeming to do anything. The ref is not having the greatest of games, it must be said.
32': Chile break, then are stopped; Honduras break in response and are stopped; Chile break again. Somewhat exciting even if none of the breaks do so much as get into the area.
30': The South African fans have organized some sort of vuvuzela-playing conga line.
29': Ramon Nunez of Honduras dives horribly and gets the foul call. He sort of looks like a young Sammy Sosa.
27': Chile kick the ball out of bounds while Pavon rolls around on the ground. After throwing it in, Honduras look for a second like they aren't just going to give it back, which I don't think I've ever seen. The Chilean defender blocks the ball and then Honduras push it to Chile.
25': US defender Jonathan Bornstein is apparently a huge fan favorite in Honduras because he scored the goal against Costa Rica that allowed Honduras to qualify for the World Cup ahead of the Costa Ricans. Meanwhile, Vidal blasts a header over the goal off a corner.
23': Adrian Healey says the game has "the aroma of goals about it" despite being so far goalless. I guess?
22': Claudio Bravo grabs the corner easily and then sets up an attack with a long punt. Valdivia eventually gets a shot off that deflects out for a Chilean corner. Sanchez falls down while attempt to shoot from 20 yards and the ball goes out for a goal kick.
20': Honduras again manage to organize a counterattack and earn a corner after a long shot goes off the back of a Chilean defender.
19': Chile's Fernandez gets booked for a slightly rash challenge.
18': ...and nothing doing. It's a bit high/long. Honduras get on the break and then Pavon finds himself wide open about 25 yards from goal, but he hits it weakly wide left.
17': Chile win a corner...
16': Good tackle by Mendoza of Honduras to take the ball away from Beausejour near the touchline.
15': Honduras get the ball through the box for the first time, but it's not threatening.
14': Adrian Healey informs us that there is an iPhone app that makes the vuvuzela sound, just in case you're trying to figure out a way to be a complete asshole to everyone you know.
13': Valdivia overhits a slotted pass into the area and Beausejour can't catch up with it. Again, we've seen this a lot, although I'm not sure you can blame the ball when the pass is along the ground.
12': Honduras start to come forward, then lose the ball after kicking it around the midfield. They look pretty bad so far.
11': Another long ball by Chile goes well past its intended target. Honduras gives it back to them rather quickly.
10': Fact of the day: Chile calls their coach "The Madman."
9': A couple of nice backheel passes between the Chileans, but the ball goes out off Honduras. Seconds later, Vidal fires a shot from distance that Valladares juggles, but no other Chilean was nearby.
6': Chile gets a free kick from the right side of the field about ten yards out. They're dominating the game early; Honduras hasn't had the ball for more than about 15 seconds at a time. The kick fails, but Chile get a shot on goal out of it, albeit a weak one.
4': Chile gets its first corner but nothing much comes of it. Honduras attempts to break, but Carlos Carmona trips the Honduran and gets a yellow card for his trouble.
3': Fernandez comes close to putting the free kick in; the crowd cheers as it looks for a second like it goes in.
2': Valdivia is challenged by Wilson Palacios and goes down clutching his face after being nudged in the back. Oh good.
1': Chile starts with a long ball that, of course, overruns everyone and goes out for a Honduran goal kick. If the Jabulani is really having an effect, this is it, for me.
6:30 am: The captains greet each other warmly. ESPN shows us the formations; Chile appears to be in a 4-3-3, while Honduras looks to be in something like a 4-2-3-1.
6:28 am: Let's do this.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Five
New Zealand 1-1 Slovakia
If this game isn't a testimony to playing until the whistle sounds, I don't know what is. (I originally wrote "playing all 90 minutes," but of course New Zealand's equalizer came in stoppage time.) The Kiwis looked the better side for the first 10 or 15 minutes, but after that Slovakia mostly dominated the game - albeit the kind of domination that results in two total shots on goal and getting your only score via a header from a player who was almost certainly offsides. (I watched this game live and while it was not the snoozefest of Algeria-Slovenia, it was rarely very exciting.) For whatever reason, be it Slovakia feeling they had the game won or the Kiwis reaching for a second gear, New Zealand came to life in the final few minutes, and they snatched an equalizer mere seconds from time, courtesy of a header from embarrassingly-unmarked 21-year-old defender Winston Reid, one of only seven All Whites who play their club football in Europe.
An exciting moment for New Zealand, surely - it was their first-ever point in a World Cup and just their third goal scored. The question now becomes what we make of this group, which is technically a four-way draw at the moment. Italy and Paraguay seem like the class of it and I'd be surprised if they don't advance; while New Zealand probably deserved their draw here I must say they were pretty poor for large stretches of the game and I'd be stunned if Italy don't thump them. While a win would have given Slovakia a decent chance to advance, they now need to actually beat either Italy or Paraguay and I'm just not sure they're up to it based on what I saw, although it can of course be difficult to judge a team fully on its opening game.
Portugal 0-0 Ivory Coast
Speaking of which. Yeesh. I didn't see this one live, though I listened to most of the second half on ESPN Radio, but it doesn't appear there was much to see; ESPN's Gamecast commentator noted darkly after the final whistle, "That is 90 minutes of my life I can't get back." Portugal, the third-ranked team in the world, managed just a single shot on goal; perhaps the most noteworthy part of the entire game was a hilarious moment when Cristiano Ronaldo, about to be fouled by a sliding Guy Demel, flung himself up and over Demel's legs rather than making contact with him and was subsequently booked for diving on what would otherwise have absolutely been a legitimate foul on Demel. Guess you just can't teach an old dog new tricks. The most exciting moment of the game was surely the entrance of Didier Drogba, although he didn't manage to do much of anything until finding himself directly in front of goal in the 91st minute, only to cross the ball to absolutely no one.
The real question is what we know about either team following this match. It may have been a dreary, goalless affair, but that could just have been fear. Think about it this way: both sides, while surely confident in public, probably expect that they will not beat Brazil, or at least consider a loss to Brazil a relatively likely outcome. Assuming a win over North Korea and a loss to Brazil, that's three points each... and assuming that that's the most likely outcome for both, this game was absolutely critical not to lose. A loss here would have required a win over Brazil, most likely. Instead, the advancing team will probably come down to who can beat North Korea by more and/or lose to Brazil by less. I'm sure either side would have taken a win, but it's pretty clear that both were far more comfortable playing conservatively, not to lose.
Brazil 2-1 North Korea
A stunning result in more ways than one. First of all, Brazil's two goals were among the nicest you'll see, started by Maicon's in the 55th minute, a crazy shot fired in from such an angle that (a) it almost looks like the ball was CGIed into the video and (b) a debate ensued over whether or not Maicon was actually attempting a cross. (I'll say this: it would have been one of the least effective crosses of all-time, so he may as well say he was shooting for it.) Brazil also got off fully 26 shots, including ten on goal - the eight saves credited to North Korean keeper Ri Myong-Guk were two more than all five other goalies today combined - yet could only manage a narrow win in a game that was scoreless for nearly an hour. The Koreans pulled back a goal in the 89th which, astonishingly, could yet prove crucial to their own advancement to the second round. Perhaps most bizarrely, this became the first game of the tournament in which both teams scored not to end in a 1-1 draw.
Group G is suddenly very weird. North Korea sits at the bottom, and their goal differential is -1, but they also have a goal to their credit, which the Portuguese and Ivorians do not. Here is one not especially far-fetched scenario, particularly if Portugal and Ivory Coast also struggle to break down the North Korean defense:
Brazil def. North Korea 2-1
Portugal t. Ivory Coast 0-0
Portugal t. North Korea 1-1
Brazil def. Ivory Coast 3-1
North Korea def. Ivory Coast 1-0
Brazil def. Portugal 2-1
Obviously I just made up the second two sets of results, but based on today's games, North Korea scraping out a low-scoring win and tie in their next two games is not the most unrealistic thing in the world, right? And four points would be enough to get them through assuming Brazil will in fact take all nine. I will say this - the Brazil-Portugal game on June 25 gets a lot more interesting if Portugal need a win to ensure the North Koreans can't pass them.
Tomorrow! Honduras-Chile, possibly along with my first live blog (which I'm sure no one will follow live and so which I may just post all at once when the game is over, if I even do it); Spain-Switzerland; and a huge game for the hosts as they kick off the second set of matches with a tilt against Uruguay. A win for South Africa tomorrow puts them on the brink of advancing.
If this game isn't a testimony to playing until the whistle sounds, I don't know what is. (I originally wrote "playing all 90 minutes," but of course New Zealand's equalizer came in stoppage time.) The Kiwis looked the better side for the first 10 or 15 minutes, but after that Slovakia mostly dominated the game - albeit the kind of domination that results in two total shots on goal and getting your only score via a header from a player who was almost certainly offsides. (I watched this game live and while it was not the snoozefest of Algeria-Slovenia, it was rarely very exciting.) For whatever reason, be it Slovakia feeling they had the game won or the Kiwis reaching for a second gear, New Zealand came to life in the final few minutes, and they snatched an equalizer mere seconds from time, courtesy of a header from embarrassingly-unmarked 21-year-old defender Winston Reid, one of only seven All Whites who play their club football in Europe.
An exciting moment for New Zealand, surely - it was their first-ever point in a World Cup and just their third goal scored. The question now becomes what we make of this group, which is technically a four-way draw at the moment. Italy and Paraguay seem like the class of it and I'd be surprised if they don't advance; while New Zealand probably deserved their draw here I must say they were pretty poor for large stretches of the game and I'd be stunned if Italy don't thump them. While a win would have given Slovakia a decent chance to advance, they now need to actually beat either Italy or Paraguay and I'm just not sure they're up to it based on what I saw, although it can of course be difficult to judge a team fully on its opening game.
Portugal 0-0 Ivory Coast
Speaking of which. Yeesh. I didn't see this one live, though I listened to most of the second half on ESPN Radio, but it doesn't appear there was much to see; ESPN's Gamecast commentator noted darkly after the final whistle, "That is 90 minutes of my life I can't get back." Portugal, the third-ranked team in the world, managed just a single shot on goal; perhaps the most noteworthy part of the entire game was a hilarious moment when Cristiano Ronaldo, about to be fouled by a sliding Guy Demel, flung himself up and over Demel's legs rather than making contact with him and was subsequently booked for diving on what would otherwise have absolutely been a legitimate foul on Demel. Guess you just can't teach an old dog new tricks. The most exciting moment of the game was surely the entrance of Didier Drogba, although he didn't manage to do much of anything until finding himself directly in front of goal in the 91st minute, only to cross the ball to absolutely no one.
The real question is what we know about either team following this match. It may have been a dreary, goalless affair, but that could just have been fear. Think about it this way: both sides, while surely confident in public, probably expect that they will not beat Brazil, or at least consider a loss to Brazil a relatively likely outcome. Assuming a win over North Korea and a loss to Brazil, that's three points each... and assuming that that's the most likely outcome for both, this game was absolutely critical not to lose. A loss here would have required a win over Brazil, most likely. Instead, the advancing team will probably come down to who can beat North Korea by more and/or lose to Brazil by less. I'm sure either side would have taken a win, but it's pretty clear that both were far more comfortable playing conservatively, not to lose.
Brazil 2-1 North Korea
A stunning result in more ways than one. First of all, Brazil's two goals were among the nicest you'll see, started by Maicon's in the 55th minute, a crazy shot fired in from such an angle that (a) it almost looks like the ball was CGIed into the video and (b) a debate ensued over whether or not Maicon was actually attempting a cross. (I'll say this: it would have been one of the least effective crosses of all-time, so he may as well say he was shooting for it.) Brazil also got off fully 26 shots, including ten on goal - the eight saves credited to North Korean keeper Ri Myong-Guk were two more than all five other goalies today combined - yet could only manage a narrow win in a game that was scoreless for nearly an hour. The Koreans pulled back a goal in the 89th which, astonishingly, could yet prove crucial to their own advancement to the second round. Perhaps most bizarrely, this became the first game of the tournament in which both teams scored not to end in a 1-1 draw.
Group G is suddenly very weird. North Korea sits at the bottom, and their goal differential is -1, but they also have a goal to their credit, which the Portuguese and Ivorians do not. Here is one not especially far-fetched scenario, particularly if Portugal and Ivory Coast also struggle to break down the North Korean defense:
Brazil def. North Korea 2-1
Portugal t. Ivory Coast 0-0
Portugal t. North Korea 1-1
Brazil def. Ivory Coast 3-1
North Korea def. Ivory Coast 1-0
Brazil def. Portugal 2-1
Obviously I just made up the second two sets of results, but based on today's games, North Korea scraping out a low-scoring win and tie in their next two games is not the most unrealistic thing in the world, right? And four points would be enough to get them through assuming Brazil will in fact take all nine. I will say this - the Brazil-Portugal game on June 25 gets a lot more interesting if Portugal need a win to ensure the North Koreans can't pass them.
Tomorrow! Honduras-Chile, possibly along with my first live blog (which I'm sure no one will follow live and so which I may just post all at once when the game is over, if I even do it); Spain-Switzerland; and a huge game for the hosts as they kick off the second set of matches with a tilt against Uruguay. A win for South Africa tomorrow puts them on the brink of advancing.
Monday, June 14, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Four (the rest)
I only got to watch the first game live, so let's just talk about the other two games quickly and then cast an eye forward.
Japan 1-0 Cameroon
Probably the shock of the tournament so far, not least because Japan had barely threatened Cameroon's area before scoring and really didn't threaten the entire game - most notably, the Samurai Blue did not record a single corner kick during the ninety minutes. Of course, the Indomitable Lions managed just three, and only two shots on goal despite a 57-43 edge in possession, perhaps explaining their domitability. This makes Group E more than a little interesting; while I still expect the Dutch to progress comfortably, Japan could now potentially squeeze into the knockouts merely by drawing Denmark. Not bad for what looked like one of the three or four weakest squads entering play.
Italy 1-1 Paraguay
Track down Paraguay's goal if you haven't seen it, because it is a thing of beauty - a perfectly located free kick from about 40 yards out that fell right at the edge of the six-yard box, where it was headed neatly into the right corner of the goal so effectively than Gianluigi Buffon didn't even move. Italy's tying goal, by comparison, was a goalkeeping blunder probably no better or worse than Robert Green's or Faouzi Chaouchi's - the Paraguayan keeper, Justo Villar, leapt for a curling corner kick only to see it pass his outstretched arm and land right on the foot of Daniele De Rossi, who easily poked it home. Villar did keep Paraguay in the game with four saves in the match, and even a loss here would probably not have kept Italy out of the knockouts with Slovakia and New Zealand on the schedule, but it has to have been disappointing.
Five games remain in the first set of group matches, with three of them, potentially, liable to be impactful on who progresses:
New Zealand v. Slovakia: I'm watching this because it's Tuesday's early game, but I can't imagine this will have much effect on the outcome of Group F. While the winner, if there is one, can bask in the Slovenia-like early group lead, Slovakia is probably the worst European qualifier and New Zealand might be the weakest team in the entire tournament although I'd love to see them do well.
Ivory Coast v. Portugal: Many howled when Ivory Coast were stuck with Portugal and Brazil in the apparent Group of Death, since they were viewed as Africa's best hope for a Cup winner on home-continent soil. With Didier Drogba's fitness in question, however, it may not matter at this point regardless. I'm still hoping this is going to be a good game, and certainly should Ivory Coast win or draw, second place in the group is open to much more question than it will be if they lose.
Brazil v. North Korea: Brazil has opened up each of the last three World Cups with somewhat unconvincing wins, but it's hard to imagine the North Koreans as anything more than cannon fodder in this group.
Honduras v. Chile: Another case where, as in Group C, the two strongest teams in the group (Spain and Switzerland) play each other in the first game. This enables the winner of Honduras and Chile - again, assuming there is one - to possibly snatch early pole position and be able to stamp a second-round ticket by doing nothing more than tying Switzerland. I also think that this game - featuring two teams with very little to lose - could be among the more entertaining of the first set, though I've been wrong before.
Spain v. Switzerland: Like US/England, if form holds in the other two games for each team, it ultimately may not be all that meaningful. However, should Switzerland lose 2-0 or 3-0 and the Honduras/Chile game produce a winner, the Swiss may begin to sweat.
Japan 1-0 Cameroon
Probably the shock of the tournament so far, not least because Japan had barely threatened Cameroon's area before scoring and really didn't threaten the entire game - most notably, the Samurai Blue did not record a single corner kick during the ninety minutes. Of course, the Indomitable Lions managed just three, and only two shots on goal despite a 57-43 edge in possession, perhaps explaining their domitability. This makes Group E more than a little interesting; while I still expect the Dutch to progress comfortably, Japan could now potentially squeeze into the knockouts merely by drawing Denmark. Not bad for what looked like one of the three or four weakest squads entering play.
Italy 1-1 Paraguay
Track down Paraguay's goal if you haven't seen it, because it is a thing of beauty - a perfectly located free kick from about 40 yards out that fell right at the edge of the six-yard box, where it was headed neatly into the right corner of the goal so effectively than Gianluigi Buffon didn't even move. Italy's tying goal, by comparison, was a goalkeeping blunder probably no better or worse than Robert Green's or Faouzi Chaouchi's - the Paraguayan keeper, Justo Villar, leapt for a curling corner kick only to see it pass his outstretched arm and land right on the foot of Daniele De Rossi, who easily poked it home. Villar did keep Paraguay in the game with four saves in the match, and even a loss here would probably not have kept Italy out of the knockouts with Slovakia and New Zealand on the schedule, but it has to have been disappointing.
Five games remain in the first set of group matches, with three of them, potentially, liable to be impactful on who progresses:
New Zealand v. Slovakia: I'm watching this because it's Tuesday's early game, but I can't imagine this will have much effect on the outcome of Group F. While the winner, if there is one, can bask in the Slovenia-like early group lead, Slovakia is probably the worst European qualifier and New Zealand might be the weakest team in the entire tournament although I'd love to see them do well.
Ivory Coast v. Portugal: Many howled when Ivory Coast were stuck with Portugal and Brazil in the apparent Group of Death, since they were viewed as Africa's best hope for a Cup winner on home-continent soil. With Didier Drogba's fitness in question, however, it may not matter at this point regardless. I'm still hoping this is going to be a good game, and certainly should Ivory Coast win or draw, second place in the group is open to much more question than it will be if they lose.
Brazil v. North Korea: Brazil has opened up each of the last three World Cups with somewhat unconvincing wins, but it's hard to imagine the North Koreans as anything more than cannon fodder in this group.
Honduras v. Chile: Another case where, as in Group C, the two strongest teams in the group (Spain and Switzerland) play each other in the first game. This enables the winner of Honduras and Chile - again, assuming there is one - to possibly snatch early pole position and be able to stamp a second-round ticket by doing nothing more than tying Switzerland. I also think that this game - featuring two teams with very little to lose - could be among the more entertaining of the first set, though I've been wrong before.
Spain v. Switzerland: Like US/England, if form holds in the other two games for each team, it ultimately may not be all that meaningful. However, should Switzerland lose 2-0 or 3-0 and the Honduras/Chile game produce a winner, the Swiss may begin to sweat.
World Cup 2010: Day Four (morning edition)
Netherlands 2-0 Denmark
This game turned out to be a real disappointment. The first half barely kept me awake and the second half was at best a mild improvement. The Dutch are good at passing but if I'm a Netherlands fan I'm starting to worry about another early dismissal in the knockouts. This is the #4 team in the world? I don't doubt they'll emerge from the group with all nine points but they hardly looked like world-beaters. Their defense was fine but I wonder how much of that was Denmark's anemic attack (bizarre fact of the day from Healey and Harkes: Denmark only carry three forwards), and while the offense had a few moments of brilliance they seemed to spend most of the game playing ping-pong. The first goal was a fluky own-goal that really never should have happened; the second was earned (although much more by substitute Eljero Elia, the most dynamic Dutch player on the pitch, than by credited goal scorer Dirk Kuyt, who easily poached the goal after Elia hit the post). All in all I was severely disappointed; even if this game was never going to be the back-and-forth of Ghana-Serbia, at least I hoped the Dutch could run free, but Denmark's packed midfield helped make things boring for everyone. The real question now is who the second team in this group will be; Denmark probably seemed like the favorites coming in, but I'd give Cameroon a very good shot now. Although let's see if they beat Japan in the game that's about to start.
This game turned out to be a real disappointment. The first half barely kept me awake and the second half was at best a mild improvement. The Dutch are good at passing but if I'm a Netherlands fan I'm starting to worry about another early dismissal in the knockouts. This is the #4 team in the world? I don't doubt they'll emerge from the group with all nine points but they hardly looked like world-beaters. Their defense was fine but I wonder how much of that was Denmark's anemic attack (bizarre fact of the day from Healey and Harkes: Denmark only carry three forwards), and while the offense had a few moments of brilliance they seemed to spend most of the game playing ping-pong. The first goal was a fluky own-goal that really never should have happened; the second was earned (although much more by substitute Eljero Elia, the most dynamic Dutch player on the pitch, than by credited goal scorer Dirk Kuyt, who easily poached the goal after Elia hit the post). All in all I was severely disappointed; even if this game was never going to be the back-and-forth of Ghana-Serbia, at least I hoped the Dutch could run free, but Denmark's packed midfield helped make things boring for everyone. The real question now is who the second team in this group will be; Denmark probably seemed like the favorites coming in, but I'd give Cameroon a very good shot now. Although let's see if they beat Japan in the game that's about to start.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
World Cup 2010: Days Two and Three
In spite of being in Indiana for a wedding for most of the weekend, I was actually able to see the majority of the six games. Let's recap.
South Korea 2-0 Greece
Most of the games I'm going to be able to watch are the ones that start at 6:30 am. Which is a shame, because at 6:30 am I am not always fully coherent (that, and the fact that many of the early games look kind of mediocre on paper). As such I don't recall a ton about this game - what I can tell you is that South Korea played outstanding technical football, with crisp passes and coordinated attacks, and Greece just looked awful. The Koreans took an early lead with a goal in the seventh minute and Greece really never seemed much of a threat to score. This is only Greece's second World Cup appearance, amazingly; in their first, USA '94, they didn't score a single goal. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they repeated that feat here.
Argentina 1-0 Nigeria
Group B should be really interesting. Argentina were probably the better side in this game, but Nigeria looked decent on offense; they just couldn't find the net. Their defense left more to be desired, but we're talking about a team in Argentina that runs out two of the best scorers in Spain and one of the best scorers in England at the front. The goalie, Enyeama, did bail out his defense on more than a couple of occasions. I'm a little worried if I'm Argentina about the inability of the team to score after Gabriel Heinze's early rocket header, given the struggles of the Nigerian defense, although since I have no doubt they're going to pound Greece, advancing from the group won't be an issue.
USA 1-1 England
Because we had to leave the hotel at 3 pm Central to get to the wedding, I missed the last 15-20 minutes of this game, but I saw all the key stuff. The US sure loves conceding early goals in the World Cup, don't they? Just ask Jan Koller. And Emmanuel Olisadebe (and Pawel Kryszalowicz). And Slobodan Komljenovic. Those four guys all scored goals in the first five minutes against the US in the last three World Cups, and now you can add Steven Gerrard's name to that list, following an absolutely woeful piece of defending that left me thinking it was going to be an extraordinarily long afternoon. Fortunately, things settled down, and a game that had "Czech Republic 3-0 USA" written all over it turned into a game more like "Italy 1-1 USA," albeit without all the red cards. Clint Dempsey's goal was, of course, a lucky break, but you make your own luck to some extent, and the Americans could easily have gone up 2-1 had Robert Green not later been able to deflect Jozy Altidore's shot off the post. The US also did a good job of mostly taking Wayne Rooney out of the match; while the English were unsurprisingly able to put together a number of dangerous attacks - and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't terrified every time England pushed forward on anything resembling a break - the US held their own and had some good chances against a sometimes porous English back line. I'm perfectly happy with a point, especially after that start, and I think it was plenty deserved for both teams.
Slovenia 1-0 Algeria
This was always destined to look like the odd match out in the group - neither England nor the US playing, two of the lower-rated teams in the entire field going at it - but it did not disappoint that billing. While the fact that it kicked off at 6:30 am undoubtedly contributed, I fell asleep for 20 minutes or so during the second half, which does not say much for the quality of play. I didn't feel confident in either side's ability to mount threatening attacks; while Slovenia's defense is supposed to be pretty good, I'm not sure what it says about their offense that it took 79 minutes to break down what never looked like a particularly strong Algerian defense, and the goal was exceptionally soft (more so than Dempsey's, I would argue). While I wouldn't encourage the US to take either of these teams lightly, I didn't come away from this match thinking that either team had a shot to come out of the group. The media has been making a big deal about how the US wanted a goalless draw here and how now Slovenia are atop the group... um, who cares? If the US beat Slovenia and Algeria - and based on the level of play in this game they should do so handily if playing like they're capable of doing - the result here is completely irrelevant. Slovenia can't advance with just three points, so maybe wait until they're threatening to draw (or somehow beat) the US or England before we talk about how Slovenia might advance. To me this game did nothing but solidify the status of the US and England as favorites to advance.
Ghana 1-0 Serbia
A completely deserved result in my book. For a long time I was worried this game was headed for nil-nil, which would have been a real shame; I think the nil-nil draw is one of the things about soccer that the average American sees and just turns up their nose at. Ties are bad enough, but the game ended without anyone scoring? And yet with the possible exception of USA-England, I didn't see a better end-to-end game in the first three days of the tournament. While I love the World Cup, its high-stakes nature - even in the group stage, a single loss is often devastating to your chances of advancing - means that a lot of teams often play cautiously, especially in their openers, spending a lot of time in the midfield while looking for openings to attack. Serbia and Ghana, meanwhile, were flying up and down the pitch from the word go. It was a great game to watch and would have been even had no one scored. But then Serbia went down to ten men - deservedly - and amazingly the game got even more exciting as they somehow had many of their best chances in the few minutes after the dismissal. Finally a clear handball in the box earned Ghana a penalty, which they converted. This group is clearly Germany's to win, but if Ghana plays like this against Australia in their next match, I expect they'll be advancing as well.
Germany 4-0 Australia
An absolutely brutal result that probably ended Australia's World Cup just as it was beginning. After a 3-1 loss to the US in a friendly last week, Australia insisted they would be ready for this game, but the Germans absolutely throttled them. Maybe Germany is just that good - but even before Australia actually went down to ten men (via a harsh straight red card to Tim Cahill), they already seemed shorthanded. The Australians seemed to be trying to make regular use of the offside trap, but while it worked a few times on young striker Mesut Özil, Miroslav Klose was too experienced to be fooled, scoring one goal and coming up just short of at least two more. (As someone who watched the US in 2006, trust me - the offside trap is just an awful, negative style of defense, and the soccer gods must hate it because it always breaks down at least once.) While the Germans probably won't be quite this dominant throughout, this was an impressive display and at this point I'd be a bit surprised if they didn't take all nine points. Meanwhile, Australia simply have to win their next two games; with their GD already at -4, winning a tiebreaker will be next to impossible. Assuming Germany win out, Australia could advance by beating Ghana and drawing Serbia, but they're in a big hole early and even allowing for Germany being really, really good, the Australia I saw today will be hard-pressed to beat anyone, especially after the display that Ghana and Serbia put on.
With work back on tomorrow, here are the games I expect to be able to watch live this week:
Monday: Netherlands v. Denmark
Tuesday: New Zealand v. Slovakia
Wednesday: Honduras v. Chile
Thursday: Argentina v. South Korea
Friday: Germany v. Serbia; Slovenia v. United States
Saturday: Netherlands v. Japan; Ghana v. Australia; part of Cameroon v. Denmark
Sunday: Slovakia v. Paraguay
Not a ton of winners in there, though I think Netherlands-Denmark should be a good tilt, Argentina-South Korea has real potential, I'm of course looking forward to the US game, and Ghana-Australia could be good if Australia wake up. I will make an effort to "live blog" at least some of these games.
South Korea 2-0 Greece
Most of the games I'm going to be able to watch are the ones that start at 6:30 am. Which is a shame, because at 6:30 am I am not always fully coherent (that, and the fact that many of the early games look kind of mediocre on paper). As such I don't recall a ton about this game - what I can tell you is that South Korea played outstanding technical football, with crisp passes and coordinated attacks, and Greece just looked awful. The Koreans took an early lead with a goal in the seventh minute and Greece really never seemed much of a threat to score. This is only Greece's second World Cup appearance, amazingly; in their first, USA '94, they didn't score a single goal. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they repeated that feat here.
Argentina 1-0 Nigeria
Group B should be really interesting. Argentina were probably the better side in this game, but Nigeria looked decent on offense; they just couldn't find the net. Their defense left more to be desired, but we're talking about a team in Argentina that runs out two of the best scorers in Spain and one of the best scorers in England at the front. The goalie, Enyeama, did bail out his defense on more than a couple of occasions. I'm a little worried if I'm Argentina about the inability of the team to score after Gabriel Heinze's early rocket header, given the struggles of the Nigerian defense, although since I have no doubt they're going to pound Greece, advancing from the group won't be an issue.
USA 1-1 England
Because we had to leave the hotel at 3 pm Central to get to the wedding, I missed the last 15-20 minutes of this game, but I saw all the key stuff. The US sure loves conceding early goals in the World Cup, don't they? Just ask Jan Koller. And Emmanuel Olisadebe (and Pawel Kryszalowicz). And Slobodan Komljenovic. Those four guys all scored goals in the first five minutes against the US in the last three World Cups, and now you can add Steven Gerrard's name to that list, following an absolutely woeful piece of defending that left me thinking it was going to be an extraordinarily long afternoon. Fortunately, things settled down, and a game that had "Czech Republic 3-0 USA" written all over it turned into a game more like "Italy 1-1 USA," albeit without all the red cards. Clint Dempsey's goal was, of course, a lucky break, but you make your own luck to some extent, and the Americans could easily have gone up 2-1 had Robert Green not later been able to deflect Jozy Altidore's shot off the post. The US also did a good job of mostly taking Wayne Rooney out of the match; while the English were unsurprisingly able to put together a number of dangerous attacks - and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't terrified every time England pushed forward on anything resembling a break - the US held their own and had some good chances against a sometimes porous English back line. I'm perfectly happy with a point, especially after that start, and I think it was plenty deserved for both teams.
Slovenia 1-0 Algeria
This was always destined to look like the odd match out in the group - neither England nor the US playing, two of the lower-rated teams in the entire field going at it - but it did not disappoint that billing. While the fact that it kicked off at 6:30 am undoubtedly contributed, I fell asleep for 20 minutes or so during the second half, which does not say much for the quality of play. I didn't feel confident in either side's ability to mount threatening attacks; while Slovenia's defense is supposed to be pretty good, I'm not sure what it says about their offense that it took 79 minutes to break down what never looked like a particularly strong Algerian defense, and the goal was exceptionally soft (more so than Dempsey's, I would argue). While I wouldn't encourage the US to take either of these teams lightly, I didn't come away from this match thinking that either team had a shot to come out of the group. The media has been making a big deal about how the US wanted a goalless draw here and how now Slovenia are atop the group... um, who cares? If the US beat Slovenia and Algeria - and based on the level of play in this game they should do so handily if playing like they're capable of doing - the result here is completely irrelevant. Slovenia can't advance with just three points, so maybe wait until they're threatening to draw (or somehow beat) the US or England before we talk about how Slovenia might advance. To me this game did nothing but solidify the status of the US and England as favorites to advance.
Ghana 1-0 Serbia
A completely deserved result in my book. For a long time I was worried this game was headed for nil-nil, which would have been a real shame; I think the nil-nil draw is one of the things about soccer that the average American sees and just turns up their nose at. Ties are bad enough, but the game ended without anyone scoring? And yet with the possible exception of USA-England, I didn't see a better end-to-end game in the first three days of the tournament. While I love the World Cup, its high-stakes nature - even in the group stage, a single loss is often devastating to your chances of advancing - means that a lot of teams often play cautiously, especially in their openers, spending a lot of time in the midfield while looking for openings to attack. Serbia and Ghana, meanwhile, were flying up and down the pitch from the word go. It was a great game to watch and would have been even had no one scored. But then Serbia went down to ten men - deservedly - and amazingly the game got even more exciting as they somehow had many of their best chances in the few minutes after the dismissal. Finally a clear handball in the box earned Ghana a penalty, which they converted. This group is clearly Germany's to win, but if Ghana plays like this against Australia in their next match, I expect they'll be advancing as well.
Germany 4-0 Australia
An absolutely brutal result that probably ended Australia's World Cup just as it was beginning. After a 3-1 loss to the US in a friendly last week, Australia insisted they would be ready for this game, but the Germans absolutely throttled them. Maybe Germany is just that good - but even before Australia actually went down to ten men (via a harsh straight red card to Tim Cahill), they already seemed shorthanded. The Australians seemed to be trying to make regular use of the offside trap, but while it worked a few times on young striker Mesut Özil, Miroslav Klose was too experienced to be fooled, scoring one goal and coming up just short of at least two more. (As someone who watched the US in 2006, trust me - the offside trap is just an awful, negative style of defense, and the soccer gods must hate it because it always breaks down at least once.) While the Germans probably won't be quite this dominant throughout, this was an impressive display and at this point I'd be a bit surprised if they didn't take all nine points. Meanwhile, Australia simply have to win their next two games; with their GD already at -4, winning a tiebreaker will be next to impossible. Assuming Germany win out, Australia could advance by beating Ghana and drawing Serbia, but they're in a big hole early and even allowing for Germany being really, really good, the Australia I saw today will be hard-pressed to beat anyone, especially after the display that Ghana and Serbia put on.
With work back on tomorrow, here are the games I expect to be able to watch live this week:
Monday: Netherlands v. Denmark
Tuesday: New Zealand v. Slovakia
Wednesday: Honduras v. Chile
Thursday: Argentina v. South Korea
Friday: Germany v. Serbia; Slovenia v. United States
Saturday: Netherlands v. Japan; Ghana v. Australia; part of Cameroon v. Denmark
Sunday: Slovakia v. Paraguay
Not a ton of winners in there, though I think Netherlands-Denmark should be a good tilt, Argentina-South Korea has real potential, I'm of course looking forward to the US game, and Ghana-Australia could be good if Australia wake up. I will make an effort to "live blog" at least some of these games.
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