World Cup 2010: Quarterfinal Predictions

I didn't talk about any of the Round of 16 games aside from the US loss, but I didn't really have much to say, in large part because the only other one I saw was Uruguay/South Korea and that one finished exactly as I predicted. (As did Argentina/Mexico, for that matter.) Let's jump to the quarterfinal predictions; I'll get to watch at least two and a half of these games, including all of what's likely to be the best one, Germany/Argentina on Saturday.

7/2/10, 9 am CT: Netherlands vs. Brazil

This match seems likely to me to go one of two ways. It will be either (a) a classic match that could go either way or (b) a Brazilian blowout. The Netherlands, while they've looked good, have yet to be tested, particularly at the back. Their group was not amazing from an offensive standpoint and they drew probably the worst team to make the knockouts, Slovakia, in the round of 16. So while the Dutch have pretty much had their way so far, I don't know of anyone who would suggest they've totally hit their stride. Brazil, meanwhile, seem to be firing on all cylinders. While they did settle for a lousy 0-0 draw with Portugal, they handle a chippy Ivory Coast team and then romped past a Chile team that most people seemed to think had at least a puncher's chance of springing the upset. (Which just goes to show that not many people really pay attention to World Cup qualifying. Chile had no chance.) The Dutch may be shakier at the back than we realize, and if so, count on Brazil to exploit that. I'm hopeful that this is a free-flowing, high-scoring game after the complaints that scoring has been too low so far; the last time these two teams met in the World Cup was the '98 semis, with Brazil winning on penalties after full time ended at 1-1, but the time before that, in the 1994 quarters, saw a five-goal second half with the Brazilians prevailing 3-2 on the way to the title. Of course, these teams are not those teams, but a 3-2 scoreline hardly seems out of the realm of possibility. Honestly, though, the only hope the Dutch have is not to have to score with Brazil. If the final is 3-2 I have a hard time picturing them on the right side of it. I'd like to see the Dutch win here - while Brazil plays attractive football I just can't root for them to get closer to yet another title - but I don't think I'll believe they have it in them until I actually see them do it.

Prediction: Brazil 3, Netherlands 1

7/2/10, 1:30 pm CT: Uruguay vs. Ghana

Hard to care about this game. In the abstract, I think it would be great if an African team advanced to the semifinals at the African World Cup. In reality, since that team is Ghana, I can't root for them - not so much because they beat the US as because of the embarrassing way they played out, or rather tried their best to avoid actually playing out, the last half of extra time. Screw 'em. Fortunately I'd be rather surprised if they did win here; Uruguay have been playing well, and while they, like Ghana, seemed to take their foot off the gas in their round of 16 game with a 1-0 lead, they turned it back on much more quickly after South Korea equalized than Ghana did after Donovan's penalty. Uruguay also seems like they'd be much more able to create a goal out of nothing, which may be needed to win a game that promises to be the most defensive of the four in this set.

Prediction: Uruguay 1, Ghana 0

7/3/10, 9 am CT: Argentina vs. Germany

If this game lives up to the hype, it could be the game of the tournament, although I think going into it expecting a 4-3 final or something would be a mistake. Given the bad blood brewing between the two camps, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be a more physical affair and to go to extra time at 1-1 or maybe 2-2. Neither team looks totally solid at the back, but I feel like I would give the Germans better odds of buckling down, though Argentina also has the more potent attack. I predict Messi still will not score - the Germans will key on him - but that Argentina will sneak out a contentious match anyway.

Prediction: Argentina 3, Germany 2

7/3/10, 1:30 pm CT: Spain vs. Paraguay

While Spain have not always been on top of their game, this looks on paper like the biggest walkover of the bunch, and if Spain can play at top level, there's no way they don't win this game going away. It doesn't hurt that Spain have only conceded two goals at the tournament and Paraguay have not had the easiest time scoring. Spain will make their first ever semifinal* and, if nothing else, will be sure to deny CONMEBOL a clean sweep of the semis.

Prediction: Spain 2, Paraguay 0

*Spain finished fourth place in 1950, but there were no knockout stages that year; the four group stage winners played a round robin for the title, with Uruguay winning the title on points following their defeat of heavily-favored Brazil on the last match day.