World Cup qualifying update

With a few teams qualifying and many more hoping to follow them into the 32-team field, let's take a look at how things are going on the road to Germany 2006...

CONCACAF (3.5 bids)
In: United States
All but a lock: Mexico (needs one point from final three matches; hosts winless Panama in next match)
Looking good: Costa Rica are on ten points after a win over Panama; a home win over Trinidad and Tobago coupled with a Guatemala loss on Wednesday would leave them needing just one point in their last two games.
The half-bid goes to: Currently, Guatemala and Trinidad are even with seven points (2-1-4 each). Guatemala has a four-goal edge in differential but faces the group's top three teams (including at Mexico), while Trinidad at least gets a match against Panama. If Trinidad can win that game and get a point out of either Costa Rica or Mexico, Guatemala will have its work cut out for it. The winner of the half-bid will play off against the fifth-place Asian nation, either Uzbekistan or Bahrain. (The Uzbeks won the first leg 1-0.)

UEFA (13 bids, plus Germany)
In: Germany, Ukraine
Group One report: I'd feel pretty confident if I were the Dutch. Though only three points clear of Romania in Group One, they've got two games in hand on the Romanians and four points on the Czechs with a match home to lowly Andorra on Wednesday. While a tilt in the Czech Republic looms, wins in the Andorra match and against Macedonia (the other remaining game) would take them through regardless of the turnout against the Czechs.
Group Two report: Ukraine should send a fruit basket to Soren Larsen, whose injury time goal drew Turkey yesterday and allowed Ukraine to win the group (seven points clear of Turkey with two games left for each). The real battle now is for second - Greece is two points shy of Turkey but they have a game in hand. Turkey could really use a win on Wednesday; they'll hope Ukraine's qualification will cause them to ease up in the game in Kiev. Greece, meanwhile, plays winless Kazakhstan; a win coupled with a Turkish loss will put Greece in command of second.
Group Three report: If any team that hasn't qualified yet could feel confident, it's Portugal, with a five-point clearance at the top of the group. Though they must play at second-place Russia on Wednesday, their final two games are home matches against Liechtenstein and Latvia, meaning that even a loss at Lokomotiv probably won't keep them and their massive goal differential (+26 currently) from qualifying without a playoff.
Group Four report: Group Four's top four teams are separated by a single point. Switzerland, France, and Ireland are all on 13 points, but all must play each other and Cyprus. Israel is on 12 points and has only two games left, but both are against the lowly Faroe Islands. If Israel can take six points from those two games, someone will have to step up; Switzerland, France, and Ireland should all beat Cyprus, but they can't afford to be drawing each other.
Group Five report: Italy is in the driver's seat in Group Five, but with Norway only two points behind, they can't afford to lose or draw any of their remaining three against Belarus, Moldova, and Slovenia. They shouldn't, of course, but that's why they play the games.
Group Six report: England is two points behind Poland but has three games left to the Poles' two. England should beat Northern Ireland on Wednesday, but Poland will likely also beat Wales. After England hosts Austria in October they should take the group lead, but ultimately this will come down to the final game: Poland at England on October 12. The loser may have enough points to qualify automatically as one of the top two second-place teams, though.
Group Seven report: Wednesday's game between unbeatens Spain and Serbia & Montenegro could well decide Group Seven, especially with Spain's final two matches against disappointing Belgium and group minnows San Marino. Spain has the advantage of hosting the game after the teams drew 0-0 in Belgrade in March.
Group Eight report: Currently one point up, Croatia could be three or four clear of Sweden by the weekend, as the Swedes must travel to third-place Hungary while Croatia needs only to contend with winless Malta. They'll need the distance; after the two teams meet on October 8, Sweden finishes with lowly Iceland, while Croatia ends with Hungary.

ASIA (4.5 bids)
In: Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran
The half-bid goes to: The Asian format makes it the only one to have already set all its teams, but Uzbekistan and Bahrain are still involved in a playoff to face the #4 CONCACAF nation.

CONMEBOL (4.5 bids)
In: Argentina, Brazil
Looking good: Ecuador is six points clear of the playoff spot and Paraguay five points clear. Colombia and Chile, currently tied on 20 points, play on October 8; a draw in that game would clinch spots for Ecuador and Paraguay even if both lose their matches that day (to Uruguay and Venezuela respectively).
The half-bid goes to: Colombia has the edge at the moment; they're hosting the game against Chile, and have a staggering 12-goal advantage in differential. A win against Chile would guarantee Colombia at least a place in the playoff.

AFRICA (5 bids)
In: No one yet. With just one match left, none of the five group leaders has more than a three-point cushion.
Group 1 report: Togo, on 20 points after a 3-0 defeat of Liberia today, is two points clear of Senegal with one match left. Senegal finishes against struggling Mali, but Togo, currently one up of Senegal on goal differential, controls its own destiny; a win over Congo (whom they beat 2-0 in Lome last September) will put them through.
Group 2 report: South Africa basically erased its chances by stumbling to Burkina Faso yesterday. Ghana's 2-0 defeat of Uganda today puts them three points up with one game left and 11 goals clear of South Africa on differential. Congo DR (the former Zaire) is also on 15 points and with a +4 GD, but they need to beat South Africa and have Ghana lose to Cape Verde in the final game, and have a big goal swing as Ghana is five goals ahead on differential. The odds are strongly in favor of the Ghanaians, who need only tie in their final match to go through.
Group 3 report: Cameroon stunned Côte d'Ivoire 3-2 on Sunday to go top of Group 3 with one game to play. However, Cameroon hosts third-place Egypt in the final game (Egypt won 3-2 in Cairo in their last match), while Côte d'Ivoire travels to lowly Sudan (the visitors were 5-0 winners in their home game). The second-place Ivory Coasters are, however, three goals ahead on differential; a Cameroon loss means that even a draw would likely send Côte d'Ivoire through. Still, the 2000 Olympic champions are masters of their own destiny against Egypt.
Group 4 report: Angola and Nigeria both won on Sunday, remaining tied atop the group on 18 points each. Nigeria has a five-goal edge in differential, so Angola needs a win against Rwanda - the group's last-place nation - and will hope that Nigeria cannot match it. Taking on Zimbabwe, the group's third-place team, the Super Eagles will have a tougher match ahead of them, but they host it, and already won 3-0 at Zimbabwe last September.
Group 5 report: The group is down to the final match - Tunisia, on 20 points, host Morocco, on 19 points, on October 7. The hosts need only draw to win the group; in the previous matchup, in Rabat last September, the teams drew 1-1.

OCEANIA (0.5 bids)
In: No team in Oceania gets an automatic bid.
The half-bid goes to: Australia and the Solomon Islands are currently in a playoff to face the fifth-place South American team. Australia won the first leg 7-0 at home, making them all but a lock to advance. In 2001, Australia also went to the OFC/CONMEBOL playoff; they won 1-0 at home against Uruguay but lost 3-0 in Montevideo to lose the two-legged playoff. New coach Guus Hiddink has been successful with his last two World Cup teams (the Netherlands in 1998 and South Korea in 2002, both of whom finished in fourth place overall), however.

So that's how it looks so far. I'm looking forward to the next set of games - and especially the pair in early October, which will decide quite a bit, especially in Europe. Quickly, here are my top ten games to watch (if you can!) or at least keep track of for this week:

10. Ukraine v. Turkey - Wednesday, 11:15 am CT
Ukraine has nothing to play for, but Turkey will be desperate for a win, hoping to get their record to the point where they can avoid the two-legged playoffs that await the bottom six second-place group finishers.

9. Guatemala v. United States - Wednesday, TBA
The U.S. is qualified and will likely be sending a second-string team; Guatemala is looking for the points to keep it out of the playoff zone. A win here would be a good start for them.

8. Solomon Islands v. Australia - Tuesday, TBA
There's no way Australia will lose this. Also, good luck seeing it - but if you could see it, it would be worth watching for all the goals. Also, it will set half of the OFC/CONMEBOL playoff that determines one of the World Cup's last spots.

7. Costa Rica v. Trinidad & Tobago - Wednesday, TBA
The hosts would love to win and put even more distance between themselves and the playoff zone. This won't qualify them, but if Guatemala loses, it will get them very close.

6. Hungary v. Sweden - Wednesday, 1:45 pm CT
Sweden is looking for points to get it towards the top of Group Eight; Hungary would love to win and take steps towards advancement.

5. Northern Ireland v. England - Wednesday, 1:45 pm CT
England wants to prove its mediocre showing against Wales was a fluke; Michael Owen returns.

4. Russia v. Portugal - Wednesday, 10 am CT
Portugal should go through even with a loss here, but it's a start for Russia if they win. They could also avoid playoffs if they win out, starting here.

3. Bahrain v. Uzbekistan - Wednesday, TBA
The first leg in Tashkent was marked by controversy, as the Uzbeks believe they were robbed of a goal on a penalty kick that was called back. 1-0 isn't much of a lead, but they need only draw to deny Bahrain the chance to face CONCACAF's #4 nation.

2. Spain v. Serbia & Montenegro - Wednesday, 3:00 pm CT
Neither team has lost yet; Serbia hasn't even conceded a goal in qualifying. The winner, if there is one, takes control of the group.

1. Ireland v. France - Wednesday, 1:45 pm CT
Though Irish manager Brian Kerr says that things are cool now after the French team's manager clarified remarks he made that Kerr viewed as insulting, you can bet this one won't be cute. Both teams are fighting to win a wide-open group.