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Two consecutive UEFA World Cup qualifiers on FSC today - one live, one on a half-hour tape delay. Reports from those:

Czech Republic 4-1 Armenia

It was a game that was simultaneously closer than the final score indicated and yet probably not as close. The Armenians had the best chance of the first half, when lone striker Ara Hakobyan had to be met and denied by Czech keeper Jaromir Blazek at the edge of the 18-yard box; Hakobyan, playing up in what seemed to be a 4-5-1 formation, was left unchecked on a surprising number of occasions, the last of which led to Armenia’s lone goal on a nice finish in the 86th minute. By then, of course, the game was over; though the Czechs struggled against Armenia’s solid defense in the first half, they picked things up in the second. Their first two goals, from Marek Heinz in the 47th minute and Jan Polak in the 52nd, were off deflections and not reflective of great finishing, but Armenia let them keep firing away, and that’s what’s going to happen. Roman Berezovsky had a great first half but he couldn’t hold off the Czechs forever. Milan Baros made it three when he tapped in a rebound in the 58th, and Polak collected his second with a blast – easily the most impressive Czech goal – from about 23 yards in the 76th minute.
Game ball goes to: Vladimir Smicer, who came on as a substitute at halftime with his team floundering and immediately injected some life into them in the midfield.
Impressed the most: Has to be Hakobyan, who looked surprisingly good considering how little help he had. Perhaps the Czech defense just didn’t take him seriously, but he probably should have put Armenia up 1-0 in the 30th minute on his breakaway (at which point we would have been looking at a very different game), and he had a good touch to get the visitors on the board late.
Snakebit: Baros, who had trouble finishing all day. It’s never that impressive when a striker’s only goal in numerous chances comes dribbling off his thigh after the goaltender has weakly deflected a free kick. Aside from his goal Baros frequently looked lost with some of his passes and couldn’t seem to even put the ball directly on net when he had it.
Final impression: Credit Armenia for hanging in there as long as they did, but look wary if you’re a Czech Republic fan. This game was at home, even if it wasn’t in Prague, so to let the little guy hang around that long, and score half of your goals due partially to fortunate bounces, is a little worrying. With group leaders the Netherlands coming to town on October 8, the Czechs face a schedule that lets them play their way to the top of the group – but that’s only if they’re up to the task.

Belarus 1-4 Italy

Belarus got on the board in just the fourth minute, but Italy wasn’t rattled by this shock goal, scoring two in the next ten minutes to take a lead they would not relinquish. What should scare other teams is that the Italians did not seem like they were playing their best football, and they still won going away, albeit against a somewhat lesser nation.
Game ball goes to: Luca Toni, who scored Italy’s first two goals and then put in a third on a nice Italian break in the 55th for his first international hat trick.
Impressed the most: Has to be Toni, who put in his first goals in World Cup qualifying since scoring the winner in Italy’s very first qualifying match against Norway last September.
Snakebit: The Belarusian attack, which spent most of the second half on the Italian side of the field but couldn’t get anything through. While their passing was crisp for most of the match, Belarus’ finishing never matched the level of the Azzurri.
Final impression: Italy can surely look better offensively – which, again, is a scary thought. They’re vulnerable as long as they maintain a formation that puts only three men back on defense, however; Belarus exploited the defensive holes all day long, but just couldn’t finish anything. A stronger offensive team probably wouldn’t let so many chances go by.

So, after today's games, an update on the groups with now no more than two matches left for anyone.

Group 1: The Netherlands are still top by four points, on 28 to the Czechs' 24, with two matches left. Romania is on 22 with one match left; they're likely done, as the Czechs need just two points out of their final two games to go clear (and that's even assuming Romania wins their final game at Finland on October 8). The Dutch are in command of the group; even if they lose to the Czechs on October 8, their final game is against 2-2-7 Macedonia. Right now the Czechs will be looking to finish in the top two second place teams and avoid the playoffs; not losing to the Dutch will help that cause.

Group 2: Ukraine has the group won, but second place is still up for grabs - Turkey is on 20 points after beating Ukraine today, but Greece and Denmark also won and are on 18 and 16 points respectively. The worse news for Turkey is that both Greece and Denmark have two games left, while the Turks have only one (it's against Albania; Turkey won the first match 2-0). The good news is that Greece and Denmark will play each other on October 8. A win by Turkey in the Albania game would take them clear of Denmark, so they'll be rooting for the Danes on the 8th. Greece and Denmark both finish with minnows (Georgia and Kazakhstan), but as long as Turkey beats Albania and Greece doesn't win the Denmark game, Turkey is through. If Greece beats Denmark, however, that last day is going to be a sweaty one in Ankara.

Group 3: Portugal's scoreless draw in Russia got it one step closer to winning the group; on 24 points, five clear of Russia and Slovakia, Portugal needs just two points in the remaining two games to win the group. They were held to a shock draw in Vaduz in their first match against Liechtenstein, but the reverse tilt in Portugal seems like a likely win, which would do it. The real battle is now for second; Slovakia and Russia are tied at 19 and finish with each other on October 12 (the previous match was a 1-1 draw in Moscow last year). The Russians face awful minnows Luxembourg on the 8th and so will assuredly enter with 22 points; Slovakia must take care of Estonia, who are on 14 points and thus not mathematically eliminated yet. (Slovakia hosts after winning the first match 2-1 in Tallinn.)

Group 4: Still a real mess. After beating Ireland 1-0 today, France has climbed to 16 points, tied with Switzerland. Israel is now third on 15 points after taking care of the Faeroes; Ireland is still on 13 points. Switzerland must still play France and Ireland; Ireland and France each play Switzerland and Cyprus. Assuming both take care of business against Cyprus and Israel beats the Faeroes a second time, Israel will be on 18 points, France on 19, Switzerland on 16, and Ireland on 16. This leaves the Swiss/French game and the Swiss/Irish game. If both are draws (as the first ones were), France will win the group and Israel will advance to the playoffs. But if the Swiss win either game or Ireland wins, Israel is out. It's still far too complicated to call.

Group 5: Italy's win over Belarus helped them, as did Norway tripping at home against Scotland; the Azzurri need only draw Slovenia at home on October 8 to win the group. The Scots aren't out of it yet; they must host Belarus and travel to Slovenia still, but if they can get six points out of those two matches, they would advance if Norway manages two or fewer out of its final two games against Belarus and Moldova, or if Norway makes only four and the goal differential turns in Scotland's favor. (Currently Norway is +3, while Scotland is at 0.) Two wins for Norway advance them to at least the playoffs regardless of other outcomes, as they own two wins over Slovenia, with whom they are currently tied on 12 points.

Group 6: England's shock loss to Northern Ireland leaves them stuck on 19 points, while Poland's defeat of Wales moved them to 24. Poland has only one match remaining, however, and it's at England - meaning England controls its own destiny in the group. Win the final two matches, home contests against Austria and Poland, and they win the group. With Austria's scoreless draw against Azerbaijan today, England did officially clinch no worse than a playoff spot, though they might still qualify automatically even if they fail to beat Poland. Still, the group will come down to that game, unless Austria can trip England on October 8.

Group 7: A goal in the 68th minute pulled Serbia & Montenegro even with Spain, leaving the Serbs top of the group on 16 points and four ahead of Spain in goal differential. Spain finishes with Belgium and minnows San Marino, while Serbia closes with Lithuania and Bosnia. The Bosnians, on 13 points after a win today, aren't out of it yet, just one back of Spain. Assuming Spain holds form and beats Belgium and San Marino as they did in their previous matches with those two nations, however, Bosnia's only hope is to catch the Serbs for second place, which would still be possible if they beat them in the last match on October 12. Bosnia's previous match before that will be against San Marino, which should leave them no worse than three back of Serbia going into that final game in Belgrade, and a win in the final match would give Bosnia the tiebreaker, as the teams drew 0-0 in their first meeting.

Group 8: Sweden's defeat of Hungary today puts them top of the group on 21 points, one ahead of Croatia after the latter's embarrassing draw at minnows Malta. Sweden and Croatia will meet in Zagreb on October 8; a win by Sweden would clinch the group for them, while a win by Croatia would put them up two and needing just a draw in their final match with Hungary to win the group. (Croatia owns a 1-0 win over Sweden in Gothenburg last year.) Hungary's loss eliminated them from contention.

In other words, we aren't much closer to working it all out. The 8th and 12th of October are going to be sweet.

In other brief news, Australia won the second leg in Honiara to beat the Solomon Islands 9-1 on aggregate. They will move along to face the #5 South American nation, most likely either Colombia or Chile. Australia has played in four consecutive playoffs before this year, losing all of them (to Uruguay in 2002, Iran in 1998, Argentina in 1994, and Scotland in 1990). Australia's only previous appearance in the World Cup came in 1974 in Germany, where they went 0-1-2. Incidentally, the team they got their only point against with that draw? Chile, a possible opponent in this year's CONMEBOL/OCF playoff.