Monday, September 05, 2005

World Cup qualifying corrections

For some reason I had been under the impression that goal differential was the most important tiebreaker if two teams were tied in group play in World Cup qualifying. This isn't the case. From UEFA's website, here are the official FIFA rules for group qualifying tiebreakers:

1. Points
2. Points in head-to-head games
3. GD in head-to-head games
4. Total goals in head-to-head games
5. GD in group total
6. Total goals in group total
7. A playoff match if necessary

Overall GD, which I'd been using, is fifth! (Or the fourth tiebreaker, since no one would consider "points" a genuine "tiebreaker.") It probably makes more sense for head-to-head to be first, of course; why I didn't think of that, I don't know. But with that in mind, the following entries from yesterday need to be revised:

CONCACAF
Guatemala and Trinidad & Tobago are still tied with seven points (2-1-4). Each has a win over the other, but Guatemala holds the tiebreaker by #3 - they defeated T&T 5-1 while T&T's win was 3-2. So Guatemala has a +3 edge in head-to-head GD, giving them an insurmountable tiebreaker should the two nations end up with the same record.

CONMEBOL
Chile and Colombia drew 0-0 in their first outing, meaning that a win by either in their head-to-head match would be enough regardless of Colombia's goal differential. However, if they draw again, it would fall to the GD tiebreaker, which would almost certainly take it for Colombia (barring a very unlikely and huge swing in the other remaining game). So all Colombia has to do to make the playoff for sure is beat Chile, and vice versa.

AFRICA
Here's where it really got messed up, because of the closeness of the groups.
Group 1: Togo does control their own destiny (all they have to do is not lose), but it has nothing to do with goal differential. If Togo ties and Senegal wins, leaving them tied at 21 points atop the group, Togo would advance because of a 3-1 home win and a 2-2 draw in Dakar between the two nations.
Group 2: South Africa is out. No goal differential swing can erase their two losses to Ghana. Congo DR is still in it because they and Ghana have tied twice, but they would still need the scenario listed yesterday to happen: Ghana would have to lose, Congo DR would have to win, and there would have to be a sizeable swing in goal differential. Ghana is still well in command of this group, especially since they haven't lost since the very first match in June 2004.
Group 3: Cameroon defeated Côte d'Ivoire in both their matches, meaning that the Coasters need both a win and a Cameroon loss or tie in the final match; despite their lead in GD, a tie won't be good enough even with a Cameroon loss.
Group 4: Nigeria's failure to get a win at home against Angola in June could be their downfall. Angola won the first match between the teams, giving them the tiebreaker and rendering Nigeria's GD lead meaningless. Rather than what I said yesterday, it is Nigeria who need a win and to hope that Angola cannot match it. Angola's opponent is still lowly Rwanda (1-2-6).
Group 5: This was the only one that was right.

So those are the corrections. You learn something new every day, eh? I did, anyway.

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