World Cup draw reaction

Bad day to be the United States, but good day to be a seeded team - there are only a couple of groups that look really challenging top to bottom, which you figure bodes well for the favorites. A quick look across the board:

Group A
Germany
Ecuador
Poland
Costa Rica

Hard to imagine the hosts not waltzing through this one, despite their recent "struggles" (in friendlies) - the tournament hosts have never failed to advance from the group stages (not even the U.S. in '94), and this isn't exactly the hardest group. Costa Rica is the least of CONCACAF's automatic qualifiers, Ecuador can't play at sea level, and Poland aren't bad but not exactly the class of Pool 3.

Group B
England
Paraguay
Sweden
Trinidad and Tobago

Four years ago England and Sweden met in the Group of Death and were the two teams to qualify out of it; it would be pretty surprising if they didn't advance again. Paraguay were feisty in '02, making the round of 16 and giving Germany a battle before conceding a goal in the 88th minute, but much depends on Roque Santa Cruz's health, which has been spotty of late. Either way, an England team playing to full potential should go 3-0-0, but second place could be up for debate if the Paraguayans do as well. Sweden, though, was one of the higher-scoring teams in UEFA qualifying. T&T are 0-3 waiting to happen.

Group C
Argentina
Ivory Coast
Netherlands
Serbia and Montenegro

Considered by most to be the Group of Death for this year, putting Argentina in it two Cups in a row. Group C boasts two teams ranked in the current FIFA top five (Argentina and Holland), probably the strongest team of the six African qualifiers (Ivory Coast), and a team that allowed just one goal in ten European qualifiers and went undefeated in a group that included Spain (Serbia). Argentina and Holland have still got to be the favorites, but a surprise or two could make the knockouts... well, probably less interesting. Wouldn't you rather see the best teams get that far?

Group D
Mexico
Angola
Portugal
Iran

Mexico barely got seeded at all, and their reward - thanks to the random draw - is a spot at the head of the easiest group. Sure, Portugal are no pushovers, scoring more than 30 goals in qualifying and conceding just a handful, but they also crashed out in 2002 as favorites in their group and have virtually no World Cup pedigree - this will be just their third World Cup in the 40 years since they finished third in 1966 and they're still looking for their first advancement to the knockout rounds. That said, Angola are possibly the weakest side in the tournament and Iran are not the best Asia has to offer. Mexico and Portugal will advance barring something shocking.

Group E
Italy
Ghana
Czech Republic
United States

In the U.S.' first WC appearance in 40 years (and start of their current five-Cup run), in 1990, their group in Italy included the hosts, Austria, and Czechoslovakia. Ringing any bells? The U.S. went 0-3 in that group, unsurprisingly, including a 5-1 loss to Czechoslovakia. This time around the Americans are much stronger, and Kasey Keller is a 36-year-old starting keeper rather than a 20-year-old reserve. But the parallels are a tad unsettling, especially with the Czechs ranked #2 in the world at the moment. The Italians must also have their guards up - they are the seeded team in this group, but the last time they missed the knockout stages at a World Cup came in 1974... in Germany. (Italy have won a World Cup since then.) Two top-ten teams staring them in the face can't be that appealing, even if the general world perception is that America is ranked too highly. Ghana cannot be written off either; they are probably the second most dangerous of the African teams and feature international stars like Michael Essien. This will be a severe test for the U.S., but if I had to pick just one of the eight seeds to trip before the knockout stages, Italy would be it - there is at least the potential that it could be beneficial to the U.S. not to be expected to advance, similarly to 2002. Of course, even if the U.S. does advance they'd probably have to face the top team in the next group...

Group F
Brazil
Australia
Croatia
Japan

This group is an interesting case. Brazil will probably go 3-0 and waltz out of it, but beyond that I could see any of the three teams below them taking second spot. Guus Hiddink seems to have the Midas touch, guiding his last two WC squads ('98 Holland and '02 South Korea) to fourth place; this will be more of a challenge but just getting the Aussies to the knockout stages will be considered a success. Japan will likely not fare as well as in '02 without the home field advantage; Croatia were surprise third-place finishers in '98 but don't look to have as much talent as that team did. I might pick Australia to slip through in second here. Interesting note: Brazil won just one of their five Cups on European soil (1958, their first, in Sweden).

Group G
France
Togo
Switzerland
South Korea

France was embarrassing in crashing out of the '02 Cup as holders without scoring a single goal, but they have some of their stars back and don't face a particularly challenging group. Togo will likely just be happy to be there; the Swiss gave France a fight in qualifying but don't look as talented on paper; South Korea will not perform to the same level as in '02 now that they aren't hosting and aren't led by Hiddink. The two German neighbors will probably move on from this one.

Group H
Spain
Tunisia
Ukraine
Saudi Arabia

Tunisia and Saudi Arabia have six World Cup appearances between them... and just three wins. (Two of those came in 1994, when the Saudis made a surprise round of 16 appearance in their first trip to the World Cup.) Spain have a reputation for underachieving, failing to advance beyond the quarterfinals in 11 previous appearances, but they won't be tripped up by this group. Ukraine were impressive in running away with a qualifying group that included defending third-place finishers Turkey and defending Euro holders Greece, but they haven't appeared on the big stage since attaining independence.

So... probably not as interesting on the group level as we might like. On the other hand, you'd probably prefer to get as many strong teams to the knockout rounds as possible if you're really a fan of top-class football, and who isn't?

Premiership Power Poll

Nearly a third of the season has now gone by, so let's take a look at how things stack up. The last poll was nearly two months ago, so some things will have changed. Others, not so much.

1. Chelsea (10-1-1, 31 pts)
(last poll: #1)
It's easy to be down on the Blues considering their recent form, but all signs suggest that this is merely a dry spell and hardly indicative of a permanent fall from grace, even though that would make the EPL season a lot more interesting. The five-game run that has seen Chelsea go 1-1-3 has included two non-League games, and while a draw at Goodison Park is nothing to brag about, a 1-0 loss at Old Trafford and dominating the second half isn't the end of the world. The loss to Real Betis is awkward but let's not forget that Chelsea won the reverse 4-0 at Stamford Bridge two weeks prior. Never mind that the previous two EPL games before the current stretch went by an aggregate 9-2 to Chelsea (at Anfield and home to Bolton). They'll be fine.

2. Manchester United (6-3-2, 21 pts)
(last poll: #3)
Let it never be said that the English press are quiet and reserved. The cries for Sir Alex Ferguson's head were loud and pronounced after the 4-1 tumble at Boro on October 29, and the 1-0 drop at Lille in the CL that same week didn't help matters, but after beating Chelsea on Sunday United are third in the league. They have yet to find a particularly inspiring form (and haven't really faced the best the EPL has to offer, with wins over Everton, Sunderland, Aston Villa and Fulham among their six) and have looked surprisingly poor at home... and yet they're no further adrift of Chelsea than any of the expected title contenders (with all due respect to low-scoring Bolton and promotion darlings Wigan). If United have already played their worst - and if you believe the commentators, how could they not have? - Chelsea could be in for a real fight this time around.

3. Arsenal (6-2-3, 20 pts)
(last poll: #7)
The fears for Arsenal have been less pronounced but no less existent... and barely less inaccurate. The Gunners have stumbled in a couple road matches at Boro (2-1 on September 10) and West Brom (2-1 on October 15), but they still haven't lost at home and are the only English club that can claim a 4-0-0 Champions League mark. For all the surprises of the early season, the teams at the top have yet to markedly change.

4. Wigan Athletic (8-1-2, 25 pts)
(last poll: #11)
It might seem unfair to put the Latics fourth while they find themselves second in the league and unbeaten in their last nine EPL contests, to say nothing of the fact that they lead the Premiership in goals conceded (with just five in 11 games!). However, six of Wigan's wins have come against teams currently in the bottom seven of the league, so we have yet to really see what they can do. Following the international break, the Latics take on Arsenal and Spurs in consecutive weeks - both at the JJB Stadium, where they have spent a large amount of time so far, but the matches should still give a decent indicator of whether or not Wigan are truly for real.

5. Bolton Wanderers (7-2-3, 23 pts)
(last poll: #8)
A Monday win over Spurs gave Bolton third place in the table, but Wanderers are old and their offense is questionable. They could be lined up to be this year's Everton, with two 1-0 wins and a 5-1 loss already under their belt. They've still started strong and have a couple solid road wins, but whether a team this aging can keep it up for a full season remains to be seen.

6. Tottenham Hotspur (5-5-2, 20 pts)
(last poll: #6)
Only Liverpool and Portsmouth are within one of Spurs' five draws through 12 games. None of the five has seen the teams score more than a goal apiece, but Spurs seem to pull through offensively when it matters, as they have only two losses, one coming to Chelsea.

7. Manchester City (6-2-4, 20 pts)
(last poll: #4)
Perhaps no team has been more up and down in the early season than the Blues. After running off five unbeaten games to continue their fine run from the end of last season, City fell to Bolton and Newcastle and crashed out of the Carling Cup at Doncaster. They rebounded to win three of their next four (the lone loss a 1-0 fall at Highbury), but dropped a 2-1 decision at Fulham. The new striker pair of Andy Cole and Darius Vassell has been fairly productive, with nine goals between them, but Cole has missed three matches through injury and the entire rest of the squad has found the net just six times so far. Though six wins from twelve isn't bad, City are still looking for a more consistent form.

8. Charlton Athletic (6-1-4, 19 pts)
(last poll: #2)
A 1-0 win over Wigan on August 20 has become the most impressive tally on Charlton's record, as the Addicks went from the feel-good story of the early season into a distant eighth in the current table. Just one league win since the start of October hasn't helped their cause, and a spotty Blackburn team whipped them on Saturday, 4-1 at Ewood Park. Ace striker Darren Bent hasn't scored in an EPL game since an October 1 loss to Spurs, and not in a win since September 10. With Man U coming to the Valley after the international break, and with a surprisingly poor home form so far (1-1-3), things may get worse for the Addicks before they get better.

9. West Ham United (5-3-3, 18 pts)
(last poll: #10)
Though perhaps not as lively as Wigan, the Hammers are showing good strength for a newly-promoted side. Their home form at Upton Park has been much better than their road form, but that's as you'd expect - while none of their wins are over top teams yet, they turned in a couple of dominant early performances, including a 4-0 thrashing of Aston Villa. The rest of November should provide some clues, with the Hammers traveling to White Hart Lane and then hosting Man U.

10. Liverpool (4-4-2, 16 pts)
(last poll: #5)
The Reds have played just ten games due to European commitments and have struggled on the road (only just earning their first road win over lowly Aston Villa), but they have held serve at Anfield, with only a loss to Chelsea. They seem to show more interest in the Champions League for a second straight year (and, for a second straight year, it seems to be working), with the prime example of this the back-to-back games against Chelsea at Anfield - a tightly-played 0-0 draw in the CL, followed by a 4-1 loss in the EPL. Still, with two games in hand and just two league defeats, Liverpool cannot be rated as low as their points would otherwise suggest.

11. Newcastle United (5-3-4, 18 pts)
(last poll: #15)
After a brutal start to the year that saw no goals until the fifth league game, the Magpies snapped up Michael Owen and seem to have turned it around somewhat, with three consecutive league wins now and a brace from Owen in a 3-0 win over West Brom on October 30. On the other hand, those three wins are against the three teams in the relegation zone, so you'll forgive me if I want to withhold full credit. Let's see how they handle a trip to Chelsea on the other side of the international break.

12. Blackburn Rovers (5-2-5, 17 pts)
(last poll: #12)
Rovers have been strong at home (4-1-1), but equally miserable on the road (1-1-4). With two consecutive away contests against top-six teams coming up, it's a treacherous stretch for Blackburn. Figuring out how to score some goals on the road (five in six games) would be useful.

13. Middlesbrough (4-3-5, 15 pts)
(last poll: #9)
If any team has been more up and down than Man City, it is surely Boro. The Teessiders have delivered losses to both Arsenal and Man U, the latter a 4-1 blasting that shook the foundations of Old Trafford, but they also stumbled at Goodison Park on Sunday and are the only team to lose to Sunderland - a 2-0 loss at the Riverside Stadium, no less.

14. Fulham (3-3-6, 12 pts)
(last poll: #14)
The Cottagers have lived up to their name with a solid home form, including wins over Liverpool and Man City and a close 3-2 loss to Man U, but on the road they have only sometimes shown up, to the tune of no wins, two draws, and four losses. All told, it's been an unremarkable start.

15. Portsmouth (2-4-6, 10 pts)
(last poll: #18)
With no wins in six home games, Pompey have failed to defend Fratton Park, and their two wins have come against lowly Everton and Sunderland. Draws against Boro and Newcastle have proven more encouraging, but really it's just hard to justify ranking Portsmouth any lower.

16. Everton (3-1-7, 10 pts)
(last poll: #16)
Despite getting two chances, the Blues crashed out of European competition early, and have faired little better on the domestic circuit. How they even have three wins is a miracle, considering they have scored a mere four goals all season - unsurprisingly, all three wins are 1-0 (over Bolton, Birmingham, and Boro), and equally unsurprisingly (and perhaps more distressingly), all seven of their losses have been shutouts. If David Moyes is still managing this club at the end of the year and they're putting up similar goal-scoring numbers, even if they aren't relegated, I'll be surprised.

17. Aston Villa (2-3-7, 9 pts)
(last poll: #13)
For a club that finished top half last year, Villa have been pretty well brutal to start this campaign. Just two wins - both 1-0 - and plenty of losses and goals conceded, including 4-0 at newcomers West Ham and 3-1 at Man City. Somehow Villa keep advancing in the Carling Cup; chalk it up to not yet having had to face another Premiership side.

18. West Bromwich Albion (2-2-8, 8 pts)
(last poll: #19)
The Baggies host Everton next, giving them a decent chance to pass Villa and move out of the relegation zone. They need all the home games they can get, though; in six road games West Brom are 0-2-4 with just one goal scored and ten conceded. By comparison, the 2-0-4 home form looks positively dominant.

19. Birmingham City (1-3-8, 6 pts)
(last poll: #17)
With the second-fewest goals scored - just seven - the Blues have been lucky not to look worse. After a middling finish last year, Birmingham have been positively rotten, squeaking out just a 3-2 win at fellow relegation zone club West Brom and scoring just four goals in their other 11 games.

20. Sunderland (1-2-9, 5 pts)
(last poll: #20)
The Black Cats continue to threaten their own record for futility by taking just five points from their first twelve games. With 11 goals they have looked livelier than some of their competition near the bottom, but by allowing 24 have played themselves out of virtually every game. Oddly enough, the single win came on the road, at Middlesbrough, but Sunderland have routinely given up three goals in losses. Back-to-back home games against Villa and Birmingham after the international break might provide an opportunity to move up in the world, however.

Playoff action

As it turns out, only the top three teams are seeded when they draw for the UEFA playoffs. Spain ended up drawing Slovakia, dashing my hopes of a Czech-Slovak clash. The Czechs will face Norway; Switzerland and Turkey meet in the third pairing.

It's kind of hard to imagine the higher seeds (the Czechs, Spain, and Turkey) losing here; Spain hasn't missed a World Cup since 1974, the Czechs are top five in the world, and Turkey finished third place overall last time out. The three lower-rated sides have less overall pedigree, both currently and historically. On the other hand, that's why they play the games; the home-and-home ties give anyone a chance. In 2001, the Czechs were ranked tenth in the world and lost out to a Belgium side rated #33; #27 Slovenia took out #15 Romania as well. So let's not book the plane tickets just yet.

According to ESPN.com, the top eight seeds for the Cup (i.e. the "anchor teams," so to speak, of each group) would be Brazil, Spain, Mexico, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, and England, if FIFA uses the same formula they used to seed teams in the last two World Cups. It's funny to think that Spain would be an anchor team if they made it but could potentially still miss; the Netherlands, currently #2 in the world, would take over as an anchor team if Spain blows it.

World Cup would be the last update but it's not

It almost is.

UEFA
Group One: The Czech Republic took down Finland 3-0 to move into second with 27 points, two ahead of Romania. I guess no one's going to be driving on Mikael Forssell Boulevard anytime soon.

Group Two: Turkey, Denmark, and Greece all won - giving Turkey the spot in the playoffs by one point and bouncing both the Danes and the defending European champs.

Group Three: Slovakia and Russia drew 0-0. The Slovak coach called it the "worst 90 minutes of my life," which is funny since it meant his team qualified for the playoffs on goal difference. Could they meet the Czechs? Would that not be totally awesome?

Group Four: France's no-duh win over Cyprus (4-0 despite a lack of Henry and Trezeguet) gave them the group as Switzerland and Ireland played to a goalless draw at Lansdowne Road. The Swiss move into the playoffs.

Group Five: Was already sealed, but a 3-0 win by Scotland over Slovenia, coupled with a Norwegian defeat of Belarus, ensured that Norway's place in the playoffs would not resort to tiebreakers. The Scots moved into third place, which doesn't help them now but could come in handy for the next European qualifying.

Group Six: England finally looked good and won the group by taking down Poland 2-1. The Poles go through as one of the two best runners-up anyway.

Group Seven: Serbia's defeat of Bosnia meant even a 6-0 trouncing of San Marino left Spain in the playoffs. With just a single goal allowed in ten qualifying games - even if this wasn't the strongest group - the Serbians could be a scary sleeper in Germany.

Group Eight: Sweden won and Croatia drew but it didn't matter. Croatia wins the group on tiebreaker, and both go through as Sweden's 8-0-2 record makes them one of the two best runners-up.

So the playoffs are based on the FIFA World Rankings and are seeded. Though new rankings come out on the 19th, September's will apparently be used, giving us this:

#4 Czech Republic vs. #45 Slovakia
#8 Spain vs. #38 Switzerland
#12 Turkey vs. #37 Norway

Czechs-Slovaks! Can you imagine the atmosphere for this game? And if the Slovaks win? Sign me up to watch. Please let a non-PPV channel carry this one.

AFRICA
Settled on Saturday.

ASIA
Well, guess what. A 0-0 draw sends Bahrain through on away goals. Think Uzbekistan is wishing they never said anything? Bahrain will play...

CONCACAF
...Trinidad and Tobago. In an exciting final day, Guatemala pounced on Costa Rica 3-1, but two goals from Stern John sent T&T past Mexico 2-1 and into a playoff for a spot in Germany. The U.S. topped the group by beating Panama, as they beat Mexico 3-2 on goal differential in the two games played between the sides.

CONMEBOL
A 1-0 win over Argentina kept Uruguay a point ahead of Colombia and sent them into a playoff for the second straight time. Uruguay's opponent in 2001? Australia. Uruguay's opponent in 2005? You guessed it.

A mere five spots left, meaning 27 are clinched. And they are!

Europe (14 bids, 11 set)
Ukraine
The Netherlands
England
France
Poland
Sweden
Serbia and Montenegro
Croatia
Italy
Germany
Portugal

Africa (5 bids, 5 set)
Togo
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Angola
Tunisia

Asia (4.5 bids, 4 set)
Iran
Japan
Saudi Arabia
South Korea

CONCACAF (3.5 bids, 3 set)
United States
Mexico
Costa Rica

CONMEBOL (4.5 bids, 4 set)
Brazil
Argentina
Ecuador
Paraguay

Interesting indeed. Man, I can't wait for the draw. But first, the playoffs!

Jump back, what's that sound?

It's the sound of the U.S. topping CONCACAF's final round of qualifying, that's what it is.

Pretty good game against Panama considering who was starting - a young team with two players getting their first caps (Mapp and Carroll), and few real veterans of the 2002 team (Eddie Pope was the only player on tonight's roster who actually played in the Germany game, and he stayed on the bench). Kyle Martino and Taylor Twellman got their first international goals, and just a handful of minutes apart - Martino's was a great first-time shot out of the air that snuck past the near post, while Twellman did well to finish when the Panamanian keeper came off his line and misplayed the ball.

As good an outing as it was for Martino, Twellman, Mapp and Carroll (the latter two of whom got specific postgame praise from Arena for their performances in their first caps), it must have been disappointing for Brian Ching, another possible candidate for second striker in Germany. (There's also Landon Donovan, but he can play attacking midfield just as well, as he mostly did in 2002.) He didn't get in until the 74th minute and had an awkward handball in the box - while under exactly no pressure - lead to a penalty kick that was fortunately pushed wide left.

The U.S. did look pretty good, though. The team seemed to take a while to get cohesive on offense, but Panama rarely was able to pose a significant threat in the other direction, and considering the third-string U.S. team thrown out there, that's pretty good. (Especially since Panama is much improved recently.)

Combine the win with a Mexico loss and the U.S. tops the group for the first time since the final round expanded to six teams in 1994. Eddie Lewis' goal at Azteca looks pretty huge now, doesn't it? Of course, before we get too excited, remember: Costa Rica's "reward" for topping the group in 2001 was a place in the same group as Brazil and Turkey, the eventual champions and third-place finishers respectively. On the other hand, it's not clear whether seeding is actually based on group finish or world ranking (though said ranking can be affected by the same things group finish is - namely, wins, draws and losses), which might better explain 2002 from a Costa Rican perspective. As long as the U.S. doesn't end up in a Group of Death I'll probably be happy enough, though. There's no reason why this team shouldn't be able to hang with most of the world.

The field is nearly set

Saturday's slate of games hardly set the entire World Cup field, but by the end of Wednesday everything will be decided except for the handful of playoff spots. Then it's an agonizing two-month wait for the draw, followed by another half-year before we actually get to watch the whole thing play out. World Cup years - and the ones preceding them because of the qualifying - are actually terrible times to be a fan of club soccer, because your team's players are frequently taking off to play in international games and sometimes return from them hurt, an aggrieving problem that's becoming so common that the G14, a group of Europe's biggest clubs including Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, AC and Inter Milan, Juventus, Real Madrid, Ajax, Bayern Munich, and Barcelona, is threatening to start withholding its players from international matches if compensation for the clubs isn't arranged, especially for when a player gets injured during international duty and has to miss time with his club.

(When you think about it, this makes a lot of sense - clubs shell out most of the money, then the national squads step in, wear the players down, and toss them back. I'm one of the people who thinks that playing for one's country should trump any club obligations, not least because players shuttle between clubs in international soccer more than in any of the North American pro sports. But it's not really fair for the national associations to shrug their shoulders when injuries happen, leaving the clubs on the hook for a player who didn't even get hurt while playing for them.)

On the other hand, they're great times to be a fan of world soccer, and since I don't have the energy to follow more than one premier league regularly (the EPL, natch), it's nice to be able to keep track of what everyone in every corner of the globe is doing without feeling like you're overstepping your bounds. With that said, let's take a look at how qualifying is shaking out as it rumbles to a close.

UEFA
Group One: With 31 points, and seven clear of the Czechs with one game to go, the Netherlands have wrapped up the top spot in this group, doing so with a 2-0 win over the Czechs in Prague yesterday. The second spot is still up for grabs; Romania claimed it with a 1-0 defeat of Finland, but they don't play another game, whereas the Czechs, just a point behind, head to Helsinki on Wednesday. Presumably this is a win for them and a spot in Germany (at 9-0-3, the Czechs would be at a .750 winning percentage, a mark that only England and Sweden, among second place teams, could challenge), but the difficulty of sorting out the tiebreakers here when not all teams play the same number of games is enough that I'm not going to bother calculating it.

Group Two: This one's been settled for a while, with Ukraine walking away with it. However, the second spot is very much up for grabs. Denmark surged into third on 19 points with a 1-0 defeat of Greece yesterday; Turkey is on 20 and the Euro 2004 champs are stuck on 18. All three face the group's bottom dwellers on Wednesday; Turkey has the hardest test, taking on four-win Albania in Albania (where the Albanians beat Greece, fresh off their Euro 2004 win, a year-plus ago), while Denmark gets woeful 0-1-10 Kazakhstan. Greece gets Georgia. A win by Turkey puts them through, likely to a playoff; a loss by Turkey and Denmark can get through with a win or draw; a loss by Turkey and a loss or draw by Denmark and Greece can get through with a win. A Turkish draw, Greek win and Danish loss would result in yet another scenario; having played to two goalless draws with Turkey, Greece would be out on goal differential unless they beat Georgia by eight goals.

Group Three: Portugal clinched their spot with a no-kidding win over Liechtenstein, though they actually had to come back to do it, trailing 1-0 at halftime at home before equalizing shortly into the second half and sealing the win on Nuno Gomes' goal at 86 minutes. Slovakia and Russia both won to stay deadlocked in second at 22 points - one game left and guess what? They meet in Slovakia on Wednesday, one of a handful of do-or-die games that make qualifying so great. If the teams manage to draw, the score would matter - 0-0 sends the Slovaks through, anything at 2-2 or higher sends the Russians through, and 1-1 means we head for goal differential, with Slovakia holding a decisive edge. If I'm Russia, I worry about scoring two goals first and then just hope the rest takes care of itself.

Group Four: As much of a mess as ever. Israel now lead the group on 18 points, but Switzerland and France both have 17 and the Irish have 16. The Israelis are done, meaning they need a ton of help. France and Switzerland both hold tiebreakers with Israel on away goals, leaving the only option for the Israelis to advance a scenario in which Ireland defeats Switzerland at Lansdowne Road to win the group and, at the same time, 1-1-7 Cyprus manages to stun an injury-decimated France squad in Paris. Even with their injuries, France is most likely going through (a 1-1 draw on Saturday gives them the away goal tiebreaker with the Swiss); it's second place that is more likely to be decided in the Switzerland-Ireland clash, another winner-takes-all battle that almost certainly means the difference between second and fourth. Since a draw would be enough for the Swiss to advance, look for them to play conservatively. My best guess is that France and Switzerland come out of this group, since wins among the top four have been at a premium all year.

Group Five: Italy, on 20 points, wrapped up the top spot after putting Slovenia away late. With Scotland's loss to Belarus, combined with Norway's win over Moldova, eliminating the Scots' slim hopes, Norway wrapped up the second spot, as Slovenia is the only team that could catch the Norwegians - but they can at best tie, and Norway has defeated Slovenia twice in qualifying. That makes Group Five the only group that is resolved going into the final day.

Group Six: England may not have looked great, but they took care of business by beating Austria, making the final day's showdown against Poland another winner-take-all match. The Poles are on 24 points and two clear of England, so only a win will send the English through, though even a loss or tie will earn them a spot in the field because of their gaudy 7-1-1 record. So actually, the last match here doesn't mean much - though it will determine the winner of the group, the loser is going to Germany without a playoff regardless.

Group Seven: Serbia, Spain, and Bosnia all won on Saturday to stay close - on 19, 17, and 16 points respectively. Serbia and Bosnia face off on Wednesday, while Spain get minnows San Marino. Spain will clearly top the group if Serbia fail to win; a win by Bosnia would send them through and leave the Serbs out, which would be a shocking result for a team that has only conceded a single goal - away to Spain in a 1-1 draw - in qualifying so far.

Group Eight: Croatia's 1-0 win in their head-to-head match yesterday was huge, putting the Croats top of the group on 23 points (at 7-2-0, they are in a select group of unbeaten teams). The last day's results could still swing the group, but they would require not only Sweden to defeat Iceland at home (the likely outcome), but Croatia to lose their first of qualifying at Hungary. This is possible, but not likely. The Swedes should take heart, however, as a win would leave them at 8-0-2 and should send them through as the second automatic qualifier of the second-place clubs.

AFRICA
Group One: Togo clinched the group in sensational fashion on Saturday, coming back from a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 over Congo in Brazzaville. The win kept them two ahead of Senegal, the feel-good story of the 2002 Cup, who won 3-0 over Mali in classic too-little, too-late fashion. Of Africa's five qualifiers, four are first-timers; Togo is one of those.

Group Two: Ghana needed only a draw against lowly Cape Verde to go through, and did so in fine 4-0 fashion. Congo DR, the only squad that could even mathematically catch Ghana, gained only a draw with South Africa.

Group Three: A month after a debilitating 3-2 home loss put Ivory Coast a point behind Cameroon for the group title, the Elephants won 3-1 at Sudan while the Indomitable Lions stumbled to a 1-1 home draw with Egypt thanks to a missed penalty in stoppage time. Talk about a reversal of fortune.

Group Four: Angola's head-to-head edge over Nigeria meant the Super Eagles needed a win and for Angola not to win to make it back to the World Cup. However, while Nigeria were pounding Zimbabwe 5-1, Angola slipped past Rwanda 1-0 in Kigali on a header by captain Fabrice Akwa in the 80th minute.

Group Five: The only African qualifier to have appeared in a previous World Cup final, Tunisia drew Morocco 2-2 to remain a point ahead at the top of the group and assure qualification.

CONMEBOL
Paraguay and Ecuador sealed their spots in the field with, respectively, a 1-0 win over Venezuela and a 0-0 draw with Uruguay. With one game left, the playoff spot - the right to face Australia in a two-legged playoff - is all that remains. Uruguay hold the spot on 22 points but must host Argentina on Wednesday. Chasers Colombia and Chile, on 21 points each, travel to Paraguay and host Ecuador, respectively. Various outcomes remain possible for the final spot.

CONCACAF
Costa Rica's 3-0 triumph over an uncoordinated U.S. side puts them through to the Finals once more. The playoff spot, which goes up against the Asian playoff winner, is currently held by Trinidad and Tobago on ten points. Guatemala, on eight, are still alive; both teams have tough but winnable matches coming up. Guatemala host Costa Rica, while Trinidad host Mexico; the Mexicans need at least a point to clinch overall first place (whether they think that matters remains to be seen), while Costa Rica cannot move up unless the U.S. lose to winless Panama (an unlikely turn of events). If Guatemala win, Trinidad must win to get through; if Guatemala do anything else, T&T are through no matter what.

ASIA
In what was not quite the worst-case scenario, Uzbekistan managed only a 1-1 draw with Bahrain in the controversial replay of their match last month that was declared void due to a refereeing mistake. Uzbekistan now head to Bahrain for the reverse needing a win; a 2-2 (or greater) draw would also be enough for the Uzbeks; 1-1 would lead to a shootout.

Wednesday's going to be fun in Europe, huh?

Washed away

Ugly game for the U.S., there's no doubt about it. Obviously it wasn't a game we needed to win, and Saprissa isn't the easiest place to play, especially in the rain, and Arena was trying out some new players. But it wasn't a performance that's going to inspire anyone, at least not on the defensive end - the first two Costa Rican goals were created by incredibly ineffective defense on the part of the U.S.

I didn't see the whole thing because I wasn't at home, and my girlfriend insisted on flipping back and forth between the game and a painful Saturday Night Live featuring the unwatchable tag team of host Jon Heder and musical guest Ashlee Simpson. What I did see mostly spoke for itself - the Americans had a few opportunities but never really threatened to finish, except for when they had a goal called back on an offsides, and on one shot in the second half the ball was cleared off the line by the last Costa Rican defender. Neither team played great in the conditions, but Costa Rica were quick to pounce on their opponents' mistakes at the back. Factor in the fact that Costa Rica needed the win and you've got all the ingredients. (Technically they didn't need the win, as Mexico beat Guatemala, but you always want to get in on your own terms if you can. Anyway, they may or may not have known the result of Mexico/Guatemala when they took the field.)

Really, I don't have much else to say about this one. There weren't many positives for the U.S. that wouldn't just have come from how a certain player played, but since I couldn't watch it as closely as I might have, it was hard to notice. I'll try to pay more attention when Panama comes to town.

Maybe the critics are right

People have been griping lately about the lack of scoring in the Premiership making it less interesting overall. And maybe they're right. I don't think you have to have goals for a particular game to be exciting or interesting, but it's usually better if there are. Wednesday's Chelsea-Liverpool game - the latest in a string of CL games between the two that has seen virtually no scoring - was one example of a game that was still reasonably exciting: plenty of good end-to-end football found its way onto the pitch, even if the goals didn't. But despite that, there weren't many good chances. When the best team in England doesn't even look in real danger of finding the net - or of having it found against them - that isn't the most exciting stuff. The EPL needs some more goals.

Man U at least got some scoring in the 2-1 win over Benfica, but aside from the goals it was kind of a dull game, though maybe that's just because I don't really care for Man U.

The question is, what would you do about this problem? Arsene Wenger suggests an extra point for wins by three goals or more, but this seems like a "rich get richer" situation that isn't going to help many teams. I mean, how many three-goal blowouts do you see a year in the entire EPL? A few dozen. Last year there were 50 all year, 2.5 per team. Not a very high number. Some teams, naturally, didn't have any (a couple finished on neither end of such a blowout), but even a Manchester United only had four. Plus, proving my rich get richer point, with ten and eight respectively, Arsenal and Chelsea combined for more than a third of the total. And of course they were the top two teams.

Of course, what you don't want is "more blowouts," and obviously that's not what Wenger is suggesting - he's suggesting that the extra points would produce more attacking football as teams try for the blowout. What you really want, I guess, are high-scoring games. In how many games last season did the clubs combine for five goals or more and it wasn't a three-goal blowout? The answer is twenty-five. Barely more than one per team. And certainly some teams never had any, especially when you note that Norwich City was responsible for seven of them.

Yes, 1-0 and 2-1 games, if not 0-0 and 1-1 games, are far more likely than, say, a game like Norwich-Boro on January 22, in which Norwich went up 1-0 in the 18th, gave up four goals in the next hour, scored one in the 80th to pull within 4-2, and then somehow scored two in stoppage time to steal a point. Even without a winner that's dramatic as hell. Not that a 1-1 game in which the tying goal is scored late isn't, but it's far more likely. 84 games last year finished either 0-0 or 1-1, meaning that every team in the league had an average of four games that were probably fairly boring. There were 30 0-0 draws total, which is five more than the number of games that finished 3-2, 4-3, 4-2, 5-3, or 5-4, though at least both are relative outliers. In perhaps the worst example of a team being rather boring on the whole, West Brom had 11 1-1 draws and three more that finished 0-0, meaning that more than a third of their season was taken up with generally bland football, though at least they made up for it by staying up on the last day in dramatic fashion.

But 30 out of 380 0-0 draws is a fairly small percentage. (Less than a twelfth, in fact; about .08, which won't even get you arrested.) On the other hand, that was last year - the bigger problem is this year, which has already seen nine games finish 0-0 out of just 66 played, a percentage of .14, creeping up on twice last year's number. Seven more games have finished 1-1; only three so far have seen four goals scored by one team. (One each for Chelsea and Arsenal.)

Maybe an even bigger problem is the number of shutouts, though. In 66 matches, the losing team was blanked in fully 32 of them! Adding the 0-0 draws on to that gives you a horrifying total of 41 games out of 66 - 62% of the games played - in which at least one team did not score. Last year, that figure was 188 out of 380 - plenty, but still less than half. In 2002/2003, though, it was 185 out of 380. Not much less. And this year's figure does have a small sample size.

In other words, the stats suggest that it's probably just alarmist stuff. I'm guessing some teams haven't hit their strides yet, but in the end I think we'll be about where we've been, goal-wise. Let's not hit the panic button just yet over one-sixth of a season. But by all means, let's root for the English teams to be involved in some more exciting CL games, because so far the ones I've gotten to watch haven't been great.

Cold comfort

The Football Association officially overturned Nedum Onuoha's red card on Friday, meaning that he won't face suspension. That's good, but still fairly small consolation. Precedent has been set recently for the replaying of games due to egregious officiating errors, but this was not a botched enforcement of the rules of the game, it was simply a heinously bad judgment call - meaning that no matter how unsuspended Onuoha is, a decision that was admittedly harsh probably cost Man City the game. (Having the extra player out there while trying to defend changes everything - it could have kept the ball away from Distin's hand, for one thing.) It's always good to see that football's governing bodies are willing to admit to mistakes, but it doesn't make the results of those mistakes much easier to swallow.

Embarrassment and catharsis

It was like the Bolton game all over again, only even worse. City didn't exactly dominate Doncaster for most of the match, but they did generally have the better play and chances, though once again they had trouble finishing. When it went to extra time things were tense, but when Vassell put away a penalty in the first half, it looked good... then Onuoha got sent off for a challenge on a 50/50 ball with the goalkeeper which the color commentator thought was a harsh red. (Having seen the replay on Sky Sports News, it was in fact tremendously harsh - not only did Onuoha make contact with the ball, but he managed to pull his foot all the way down after he hit it so that he did not hit the keeper with his studs. And he gets sent off for that.) Then ANOTHER BALL GETS HANDLED IN THE BOX just two minutes from time, and Doncaster equalizes. Then we head to penalty kicks and things only get worse.

McIndoe, goal. 1-0 Doncaster.
Vassell beats the keeper... and hits the crossbar. Still 1-0.
Coppinger, goal. 2-0 Doncaster.
Sibierski has his shot saved! Still 2-0!
Heffernan, goal. 3-0 Doncaster. City now must make all remaining kicks and saves. Please.
Dunne... saved again! By the backup keeper! And that's it, 3-0, not a single PK converted against a side at the bottom of League One! And City are out of the Carling Cup!

Painful. Painful, painful, painful. I listened to the whole radio broadcast on an internet feed via the BBC website, and that's the result I get.

However, there's something sort of cathartic and unifying here. Though I took care to choose a Premiership side that was not among either the recently or historically dominant, Man City's recent unbeaten run (which had started before I declared my fandom) was almost unfair. I had looked into their history, of course, and found stuff like last year's third round FA Cup loss to Oldham, but there's a part of me that thinks that no matter how you chose your team, you can't truly belong until you've suffered with them. Otherwise you just seem like a frontrunner. Even Yankees fans, as much as I hate them, had the 1980s. (Although a decade of futility had sort of been earned by the Yankees' previous 60 years of general dominance.)

With the Bulls I had the post-Jordan, pre-Gordon era. With the Bears I've had about everything since 1986. With the Devils I had the 1994 Eastern Conference Finals, and the early playoff exits despite being the East's best team in 1997, 1998 and 1999. With the Cubs I've had my entire life.

So I hadn't yet had anything like that with Man City. There was the Bolton game, but Drew saved me from watching it, and the highlights simply reinforced the notion that City had played much better but had had some bad luck. Today, however, I suffered along with the team and the other fans, all the way through a game that should have been much more reminiscent of Barnsley than Oldham. Maybe it's because it was on the road (so was the Oldham game; Barnsley was not). Maybe it's because there was no Cole (surely he could have finished, as he could have finished one or two in the Bolton game), or no Barton or Fowler. Maybe it was just a few bad breaks - does it happen if Onuoha doesn't get sent off? Regardless of why, though, there was something cathartic - albeit deeply depressing - about the experience.

In what may be my favorite book, Nick Hornby's Fever Pitch, he writes of Arsenal's success at the beginning of the 1990s, "It was strange, trying to write about how miserable most of my footballing life has been in the midst of all that post-Championship hope and glory. So as the season crumbled to dust, and Highbury became a place for discontented players and unhappy fans once more, and the future began to look so dismal that it was impossible to remember why we thought it bright in the first place, I began to feel comfortable again." I'm not saying I relish defeat, as Hornby is not, and I would deny that theory in the same way that Bill Simmons refuted the idea, last fall, that the Red Sox fans' identities were tied to losing and that, having won the World Series for the first time in 86 years, they would not know what to do with themselves. What I am saying is that you have to take the bad to appreciate the good.

From the time I started getting really serious about sports, in the mid-90s, the Devils were probably the most successful team on my radar screen, winning three Stanley Cups between 1995 and 2003. But the 1995 Cup came on the heels of a devastating loss in 1994, and the 2000 win followed a three-year period during which we were eliminated twice in the first round as the #1 seed and the third time by the hated Rangers. Had the Devils pulled an Oilers and just won several Cups in a row, I'm not sure I would have known what to do, just as the Bulls' ridiculous run of NBA success was something that was good - not least because I knew so many Knicks fans at school - but not something to which I was really affixing my permanent identity. As nervous as I was in Game Six in 1997 and 1998, there was something fatalistic about the whole process, as though, having made the playoffs, the Bulls could not possibly lose. Following them, as a result, became less enjoyable - all their wins were expected. Had they lost just one of those years, everything else might have seemed justified - but they never did.

No one - and I say this very seriously as a Cubs fan - wants losing to define them. Being part of a losing culture is no fun. But there is one thing that a losing culture has over a winning culture - achieving the result will always be that much better. Yankees fans of the new generation who didn't remember the team's '80s struggles and thought there was no way they could lose to the Diamondbacks in 2001 probably had no idea how to react when Gonzalez hit his flare. Red Sox fans of any generation, however, knew how to react as Foulke tossed to first. They had seriously earned the win.

So as horrible and depressing as this loss was, ultimately it's a good thing. I mean, what if Man City had (somehow) not lost a game in the Premiership this year? Sure, I would have been following them the whole year, but I would never have known a loss. The City fans who have been waiting for a League title since 1968, or a Cup title since 1976, would be over the moon, but what would I have to compare it to? You need the losing first - otherwise you're just some guy who showed up to reap the rewards. I'll still be pulling for City to do well, of course - but now, if they win anything, I'll have a reference point: that crushing defeat at Doncaster that felt so painful. And I'll actually be able to say how much better the winning feels.

The palindrome of Bolton would be "Notlob"

Even though the Man City/Bolton game is probably one of only a half dozen Man City games that FSC will bother airing all year, I don't think I'm going to watch it. I was TiVoing it but got home late enough such that Drew had already watched it, and he warned me that I shouldn't. Personally, I might have been able to live with the result had I just sat down and watched it, but knowing that I had reason not to caused me to look it up. 1-0 doesn't sound so bad of course, but it was the way they lost. (I watched the EPL Review Show later on FSC so I saw all the key plays.)

It's pretty depressing to think that a team can be that strong an attacking force despite missing their star transfer striker and still lose, but that's what happens when you hit the woodwork five times - five! - and your right back handles a ball in the area in stoppage time. I think Musampa should have scored on his frame shot - he tried to one-time a ball, which would have looked way cool had it gone in, but it would have been much easier to score had he gathered it and settled down, then taken a shot. He had the time and space to do so, too.

On the other hand, it's great to see City attacking like that. Sometimes you just have hard luck games and this was clearly one - going double-digit games without a loss isn't the most common thing, so to think it was going to stretch on forever was a bit naive. This kind of attacking football, where City looked to be dominating the game against a team good enough to play in Europe (the EPL Review highlights package did not contain a single Bolton shot on goal except for the penalty kick), is to be commended and I hope it continues going forward, starting with Doncaster on Wednesday. (No embarrassing early Cup crashes, please.)

No respect, I tell you

I don't understand the FIFA world rankings. I know they're supposed to take into account pretty much every major play by the senior team of a nation, but sometimes I wonder what exactly is going on. For example, here are the top ten rankings in August of this year:

1. Brazil 837 points
2. Argentina 782 points
3. Netherlands 780 points
4. Czech Republic 777 points
5. Mexico 770 points
6. USA 768 points
7. England 743 points
8. Spain 739 points
9. France 737 points
9. Portugal 737 points

So that seems fair enough, right? Now, here's what's happened with those teams since then:

Brazil - 5-0 win over #73 Chile that qualified them for the World Cup
Argentina - 1-0 loss to #35 Paraguay that likely owed itself at least partially to the fact that Argentina had already qualified for the World Cup
Netherlands - 1-0 win over #120 Armenia; 4-0 win over #134 Andorra
Czech Republic - 2-0 loss to #31 Romania; 4-1 win over #120 Armenia
Mexico - 2-0 loss to #6 USA; 5-0 win over #77 Panama that qualified them for the World Cup
USA - 2-0 win over #5 Mexico that qualified them for the World Cup; 0-0 draw with #59 Guatemala
England - 1-0 win over #83 Wales; 1-0 loss to #116 Northern Ireland
Spain - 1-1 draw with #49 Serbia and Montenegro
France - 3-0 win over #126 Faeroe Islands; 1-0 win over #14 Ireland
Portugal - 6-0 win over #155 Luxembourg; 0-0 draw with #29 Russia

Now, based on these results and on the previous rankings, you might think the following things:
1. Argentina might drop, but probably not much since FIFA would understand they had little to play for
2. The USA would pass Mexico
3. England would likely drop out of the top ten
4. The rest of the rankings would probably stay more or less the same

Now. Three of those are essentially correct. One is not. Can you guess which one it is? I'll give you a hint: study the new rankings, released today, carefully.

1. Brazil 839 points
2. Netherlands 785 points
3. Argentina 778 points
4. Czech Republic 777 points
5. Mexico 771 points
6. France 770 points
7. USA 768 points
8. Spain 750 points
9. Portugal 743 points
10. Sweden 740 points

Now, FIFA claims to weigh a lot of factors. Let's look at their own words for this one:

"But by contrast to normal league championships, for the World Ranking a team's points for a match do not depend solely on whether they win, lose or draw. Also affecting the total for a match will be the number of goals scored and conceded, the venue and the importance of the match. In addition, the strength of the opponent is considered, so that a win over a weakly rated opponent will earn fewer points than one against a strongly rated one. This means that a win will not simply bring two or three points and a draw one, as would happen in a national league. The calculation is more complicated since it incorporates the factors mentioned above."

So let's see. The United States beat Mexico in the most important qualifier of their season (since the winner would have no more work to do) and then sent a second team to Guatemala where they held for a 0-0 draw against a lower-rated but still decent squad that was desperate for a win. Grand total of accumulated points: zero. Mexico, on the other hand, lost to the U.S. (but on the road, ooooh), then put the wood to a Panama team that was even weaker than Guatemala and did it in Mexico. Grand total of accumulated points: one.

The message I'm getting here is this: FIFA, like a college football poll, loves it when you run up the score. If the U.S. had beaten Guatemala 6-0, do you think they'd still be behind Mexico? I understand that Mexico shouldn't be devalued too much for losing at the United States, but what I'm getting from the fact that the U.S. didn't even add points is that drawing in Guatemala when you have absolutely nothing to play for and sent a second-string team is a negative occurrence, because surely beating the #5 team in the world, even if you play them in your backyard, is a positive one. What I'm also getting from it is that Mexico actually benefited from the U.S.'s previously high ranking; had the U.S. been ranked in the 30s like Paraguay, whose match against Argentina was at home, perhaps Mexico would actually have lost some points. Or maybe defeating a team ranked in the 70s at a home stadium where you almost never lose is just that impressive?

What we've learned is this: FIFA does not seem to care about whether a game is important or not. If you want to rise in the world rankings, the most important thing is to beat up on teams much worse than you. A 2-0 game between the world #5 and world #6? That's not so important. What really matters for next month is how those teams play when one is on the road against a #50ish team in a game they don't need to win and one is at home against a #70ish team in a game they do need to win.

Okay, yes: the U.S. team did not look very good in the Guatemala game. But again: second-stringers! They didn't need to look good! What happened to considering the "importance of the match," FIFA? What I'm hearing is that if the U.S. had scored one goal, just one, that probably would have been enough to keep the #6 spot, maybe even move up. But no.

Eh, whatever. We're in the World Cup, and ultimately FIFA rankings don't mean all that much. Either we're going to do well (I sure hope) or we aren't. Still, you have to admit this is a little annoying.

Dueling Man-jos

Though I knew the result and had seen the highlights, I sat down and watched the whole Manchester derby anyway tonight, because I'll be lucky to see a third of Man City's games all year so I'll be damned if I'm going to pass one up.

It wasn't too bad. Reading the recap and, in particular, Ferguson's whinefest, you'd think the whole game was just United firing shot after shot while City stacked ten men on the 18-yard line, but that really wasn't the case. In fact, City controlled the ball in the midfield for most of the first half and probably had the nearest misses before van Nistelrooy put one in just before the whistle. (Bad break there for City as well - James did well to make the first save on RVN's redirect of the free kick, but nobody got there to hold him off on the rebound.)

The second half was closest to Ferguson's description - after playing a bit more open in the first half and conceding a goal, City seemed determined to lock down and look for an opening for a counterattack. So most of it was just United attacking and eventually being held off, before City finally broke through in the 76th when Barton tapped Vassell's shot past Ferdinand, who was on the line to van der Sar's left as the only person in the way.

And after that, City unquestionably had the only other good chance of the game, when Cole drilled one that van der Sar just got in front of, about thirty seconds from time. Very very close to stealing one there. But Ferguson's just whining about nothing. Sure, City played defensively in the second half and waited for the "scraps," as he said. So what? It's a game plan and it worked. You expect City to try and get into a shootout with a team running van Nistelrooy and Rooney out front on their home pitch? They were playing for the draw in the second half, not the win, and they still came near to stealing it. Don't be mad because you drew; be relieved you didn't lose.

On to the other Tuesday action:

Real Betis 1-2 Liverpool

Not the best-played of games. Liverpool got the opener about 90 seconds in and the second before the 15-minute mark, and then at halftime seemed to lose all interest in attacking and just sat back as Betis missed chance after chance. The Spaniards did put one in with just six minutes gone by in the second, but after that it was all for naught; just a lot of boring midfield play, and the Reds didn't even play particularly well on defense (in some respects you could say they were lucky to win, especially with the case that they got away with a push on the first goal). Still, I'm glad to see Champions League football back, though I'm already salivating over the knockout stages and their heightened drama. (Hopefully I wasn't just spoiled by last year's finish.)

As for the games I didn't see but saw the scores, quick hits: Yikes, Madrid. Shrug, Chelsea. Wow, Rosenborg. And hey, Rangers. The rest were as expected. Tomorrow's most interesting game is probably Man U-Villareal, which will be on ESPN2; I don't think I'll have the chance to watch it live but it will be waiting on TiVo when I get home.

Premiership Power Poll

We're roughly one-eighth of the way through the Premiership season, with most teams having played five matches already, so I've decided to compile my impressions into a sort of power ranking. This is not just the league standings, though of course it's not tremendously different either.

1. Chelsea (5-0-0, 15 pts)
The sky seems to be the limit for Chelsea. 38 wins from 38 games? An entire Premiership season without allowing a goal? Why not? Chelsea's roster is preposterously stacked with talent - it seems like virtually everyone on the team is a star for their respective national teams (meaning that this year's World Cup qualifying could be the only thing that slows Chelsea down). Certainly the Blues have picked up just where they left off last season - five straight wins, most notably victories over Arsenal and Tottenham, and no goals conceded yet (a year after they set a new Premiership record with just 15 allowed).

2. Charlton (4-0-0, 12 pts)
We'll see just how good Charlton really are when they host Chelsea at The Valley on the 17th of this month, but until then the Addicks have earned this spot. They haven't played the best of competition yet, with Middlesbrough probably being the top of the four, but Charlton have scored eight while conceding just one, nothing to sniff at, and three of their four wins have come on the road, never an easy place to get three points in the Premiership. Much of the credit belongs to 21-year-old striker Darren Bent, who owns five of Charlton's eight goals so far.

3. Manchester United (3-1-0, 10 pts)
Though a draw in the Manchester derby has Man U sitting behind their crosstown rivals on the table, the Red Devils have a game in hand on City and have been more overall impressive so far. The goal allowed to Joey Barton in that game was the first Man U had conceded all year, while Ruud van Nistelrooy and Wayne Rooney have been scoring for United as expected so far. A trip to Liverpool on the 18th may be Man U's only serious league test between now and a November 6 tilt with the defending champs.

4. Manchester City (3-2-0, 11 pts)
Stuart Pearce's side have run off 13 consecutive Premiership matches without a loss, and current results suggest there's a chance that streak could be run to nearly 20, though a trip to Highbury in late October will provide a stiff challenge. With a regrouped attack that hasn't seemed to be missing Shaun Wright-Phillips yet, City are not in the class of a Chelsea or Man U in terms of overall talent but should have enough to play their way into Europe if they keep up current standards.

5. Liverpool (1-2-0, 5 pts)
The Reds have had a slow start to the season in terms of fixtures due to their European commitments. Though they haven't lost yet, they also haven't looked that good in the league, with two goalless draws and a 1-0 win over Sunderland to show for their efforts. However, their continued advancement into the group stages of the Champions League shows that this is still a strong team. The question remains this: will Liverpool prioritize Europe over the Premiership as they seemed to do last season? If so, they may find themselves dropping down the table and this ranking.

6. Tottenham Hotspur (2-2-1, 8 pts)
Spurs also have two goalless draws to their name, but also a pair of 2-0 wins, and their only loss so far came to Chelsea. That loss wasn't even as bad as it looks (and against Chelsea, that's not too bad), since both of the Blues' goals came after Mido was sent off for Spurs. With current England starter Paul Robinson in net, Spurs will find themselves engaged in a lot of defensive struggles, especially if the offense doesn't pick it up a bit.

7. Arsenal (2-0-2, 6 pts)
Arsenal have been very bipolar so far this season. The year started with a 2-0 win over Newcastle, a slim 1-0 loss at Stamford Bridge, and a 4-1 rout of Fulham. Then the Gunners went to Middlesbrough and went down 2-1. Arsenal still have the talent to return to Europe and the top of the table, but this is not the same team that went undefeated in 2004, especially with Patrick Vieira now at Juventus and Thierry Henry currently nursing an injured groin.

8. Bolton Wanderers (2-2-1, 8 pts)
Last year's sixth-place finish earned Bolton their first-ever trip to Europe in the club's 111 years. The Trotters are somewhat known for their age (many of their stars are above the age of 30), so it remains to be seen if all the extra football will take a toll, especially on the club's league fortunes. So far, apart from a 1-0 home loss to Everton, Bolton have been fairly impressive, with wins at West Ham and home to Newcastle.

9. Middlesbrough (2-1-2, 7 pts)
Boro's 2-1 win over Arsenal cemented them as a solid contender for European play for a third consecutive year. They've been a bit up and down, however, with a 3-0 loss at home to Charlton and a 3-0 win at Birmingham serving as the opposite ends of the spectrum. Boro are unlikely to challenge for a Champions League spot but could make some noise for the UEFA Cup and could play a spoiler role.

10. West Ham (2-1-1, 7 pts)
A 4-0 demolition of Aston Villa on Monday proved that West Ham are not a team that come up only to go right back down. The Hammers already own two wins, and both are over established Premiership sides (the other was a 3-1 win over Blackburn to open the year). It remains to be seen if they can play on the road, however, with only a 0-0 draw at Newcastle so far. Still, their early home form has been quite impressive, especially for newcomers.

11. Wigan (2-0-2, 6 pts)
Wigan have also shown solid form so far as they hope to join West Ham in beating the average of two callups going right back down the following season. The Latics' wins have only come over bottom-feeders Sunderland and West Brom so far, but their two losses were 1-0 defeats to Chelsea and Charlton, both found at the other end of the table and usually known for scoring more. This solid defensive form may bode well for Wigan down the road.

12. Blackburn Rovers (1-2-2, 5 pts)
Aside from a 2-1 home triumph over Fulham, Blackburn have looked likely to repeat their form of last year - good enough to be several spots from the relegation zone, but not good enough to make the top half of the table. Goalless draws against Spurs and Bolton have shown fine defensive form, though.

13. Aston Villa (1-2-2, 5 pts)
Villa sink to this level after being embarrassed at West Ham. Their one win so far was a slim triumph over Blackburn, and they did well to draw Bolton 2-2 in the opener, but they have looked solidly mediocre otherwise. The game against West Ham was probably not as bad as it looks by the score line, but a lack of finishing on the Villans' part was the nail in the coffin.

14. Fulham (1-2-2, 5 pts)
Brian McBride has had strong early form, but a 1-0 win over Everton has been the only real bright spot for the Cottagers so far, with a massive 4-1 defeat at Arsenal and a 2-1 loss to equally middling Blackburn also on the card. Fulham looks again like their main role in the Premiershp will be as possible spoilers.

15. Newcastle (0-2-3, 2 pts)
Though still without a win, Newcastle slots into 15th spot in this poll because of the addition of Michael Owen, who should provide some punch to an attack that has netted just one goal in five games. At least their form hasn't been terrible - their three losses have come to teams good enough to be playing in Europe this season. Still, with Owen in town the Magpies need to start scoring soon to keep Graeme Souness' job at St. James' Park.

16. Everton (1-0-3, 3 pts)
One of the least likely top-four teams ever, last year's Everton squad put the Ewing Theory to the test by getting rid of Wayne Rooney and running into Europe regardless, a year after finishing 17th and avoiding relegation by just six points. While David Moyes may have gotten the most out of the Toffees in 2004-05, however, 2005-06 is looking like it might be a return to form. The Blues just lost at home to Portsmouth and have scored just one goal in four games, though they have done well enough defensively by only conceding four. After crashing out of the Champions League in qualifying, Everton will look to make a UEFA Cup run, but that may be the highlight of their season.

17. Birmingham City (1-1-3, 4 pts)
Birmingham have a number of strong players, including Finnish striker Mikael Forssell, but in an odd twist have yet to win at St. Andrews, with losses to Man City, Boro, and Charlton. Their road form has been better although against worse teams, with the one win so far coming at West Brom. Another season in the bottom half looks likely, though the Blues have the talent to make a run at the top half.

18. Portsmouth (1-1-3, 4 pts)
A 1-0 win at Everton has been the only real bright spot so far for Portsmouth, who could well be looking at a relegation battle this year after escaping last year while rivals Southampton went down. Pompey have been solidly in the bottom half since making their Premiership debut in 2003-2004, and this year's squad doesn't look likely to change that.

19. West Bromwich Albion (1-1-3, 4 pts)
West Brom narrowly escaped relegation last year on the final day of the season, becoming the first club in Premiership history to be bottom of the table at Christmas and stay up. The Baggies can't keep relying on those survival tactics, though, especially if they're going to lead the league in goals conceded as they are, with ten, one-eighth of the way through. WBA opened the season with four points from two games by drawing Man City and beating Portsmouth 2-1, but it's been downhill from there, with a 4-0 drubbing at Chelsea and losses to Birmingham and, most recently, newcomers Wigan. Without Geoff Horsfield scoring four of West Brom's five goals so far, the Baggies would be even worse off.

20. Sunderland (0-0-5, 0 pts)
Sunderland surely hoped to contend in the top flight after topping the Championship, but right now the only record they're challenging is their own mark for Premiership futility - 19 points, set in 2003. That Black Cats side finished with 27 losses from 38 games, just four wins, and a goal differential of -44, all records in the ten-year history of the 20-team Premiership. This year's squad have begun with five losses from five games, scoring just two goals and conceding nine. If Mick McCarthy's men can't get into the win column - or at least the draw column - when they host another straggler in West Brom on the 17th, we may have to clear some space in the record book for the first team that didn't win a Premiership game all season.

A look into Europe

Though I'm most excited about the next (and final) set of World Cup qualifiers, I'm also fairly pumped for the start of the club competitions. While one of England's domestic cups starts for the Premiership clubs later this month (City take on League One club Doncaster in Round Two of the Carling Cup on the 21st - I don't claim to know how they work out the schedules for these things), the whole of Europe if not the world will have their eye on the two European cups, the UEFA Cup and, in particular, the Champions League.

The qualifiers having been played back in July and August, the six matches for each club will be played between now and December. I don't think we need to break down every single team's chances, but let's take a look at the groups really quick, with particular emphasis on the international powers in each of them.

Group A: With both Bayern Munich and Juventus, this group is probably the most straightforward to determine the top two teams that will advance to the knockout stages. Bayern won the Bundesliga last year and have opened 2005-2006 with four wins in four matches to go top of the table; Juve are defending Serie A champs and also top the early season table in Italy. It's hard to imagine either Rapid Vienna or Club Brugge taking much of anything from either team; I favor Bayern to win the group because of their edge in the goalkeeping department with Oliver Kahn in net. Juve have not conceded a goal in two Serie A games but are starting a replacement keeper due to injury. Be sure to mark off October 18 and November 2, when the powers meet.

Group B: This may be the weakest group. Arsenal are looking weak in early season play, with two Premiership wins but also two losses, including a 2-1 defeat this weekend that was their first to Middlesbrough in Premiership play. Worse still, Thierry Henry is out for an undetermined period of time that will include this Wednesday's first match. Ajax have more anonymous talent but will be looking to capitalize on any Arsenal slips. It would be quite an upset if those two clubs don't advance, however, with Sparta Prague and FC Thun playing the minnow roles; the latter in particular will likely just be happy to be there.

Group C: This may be an underrated group. Barcelona will be expected to go through, but don't count out Werder Bremen, who won the Bundesliga two seasons ago, or Udinese, making their CL group debut but much improved in the past several years. For that matter, Panathinaikos have some European history and a successful Italian coach. Barca most likely will advance one way or another, but beyond that nothing would surprise me.

Group D: Unquestionably Manchester United's group to lose. While none of Villareal, Benfica, and Lille are pushovers, Man U should have superior talent to them all. Villareal have already dispatched one English club (Everton) in qualifying, but Man U are much stronger and Villareal have started their domestic season sluggishly. Lille, who have started fairly strong (2-3-1) in Ligue Un, could be a surprise second if they play well.

Group E: Another fairly strong group top to bottom - AC Milan and PSV Eindhoven met last year in the CL semifinals, though PSV have lost several key players since then. German club Schalke 04 finished second in the Bundesliga last year, while Fenerbahce were Turkish champions. Milan should be favored to win and probably will, but anyone could finish second.

Group F: Real Madrid and their surplus of talent will be expected to win; after failing to bring home any hardware since their last league win in 2002-03, fan patience may be running short with such an expensive squad. Not to be overlooked, however, are French champions Lyon (quarterfinalists last season) and Olympiakos, the Greek champions who narrowly missed a spot in the knockout rounds last year to eventual champs Liverpool. Bringing up the rear are Rosenborg, the perennial Norwegian champs and equally perennial exit from the CL group stages, but at least they're seasoned. It'll be a real dogfight for the top two spots.

Group G: As if making a point about failing to qualify via one's league rules, UEFA managed to slot Liverpool into the same group as Chelsea, a break with the usual rule that no two teams from the same league shall play in the same group. The chance at a dual rematch to remove last season's semifinal embarrassment must be incredibly tempting and inspiring for Chelsea; playing possibly even better football than last year, they're already top of the Premiership with 15 points in five games. (Liverpool lag in tenth with five from three.) Barring another Reds-related stumble, it's hard to see Chelsea, an immensely talented side on all fronts, failing to win the group; second place is the real trick. Liverpool look to be in the driver's seat on this count, unless all the football they've played catches up to them. Real Betis' injuries should short out their bid, however, and Anderlecht don't look to be in the same class, finishing a mere second in the little-regarded Belgian league. In any event, keep a close eye on the Blues-Reds matches, on September 28 at Anfield and December 6 at Stamford Bridge.

Group H: Inter Milan should be favorites here. Rangers and Porto will battle for second place (they meet Tuesday at Ibrox in what should be an early sign of which will finish behind Inter); Artmedia Bratislava will most likely bring up the rear. Porto did win the CL two years ago behind current Chelsea head man Jose Mourinho, giving them some edge in experience over Rangers. Inter's having to play home matches behind closed doors due to the fan violence in their match with city rivals AC Milan in last year's quarterfinals may affect them, though how much remains to be seen.

So that's the Champions League. Ought to be awesome. ESPN2 is actually showing some of the games, starting with Liverpool's match against Real Betis on Tuesday. Now a quick mention of the UEFA Cup, which features a few Premiership clubs and starts its next round on Thursday.

Everton, having been bounced from the CL qualifying stages, take on Dinamo Bucharest; Middlesbrough get Greek side FC Xanthi; Bolton host Lokomotiv Plovdiv of Bulgaria. Everton, the only English side who must play away in the first leg of this round, have struggled in the early season, with three losses in four Premiership games and just one goal scored in those four. The Toffees aren't much for scoring, having a -1 goal differential even while finishing fourth last year, and must rely on their defense if they hope to advance in the Cup. Bolton, 2-2-1 in their first five league games, have a better hope, though their last game at the Reebok Stadium finished 0-0 against Blackburn on Sunday. Boro may be the best odds to move on, coasting on their strong 2-1 win over Arsenal on Saturday, though they have two losses already as well.

It's tempting to pick all the English sides to move on because the other teams are also-rans from weaker domestic leagues, but one never knows. Still, Boro and Newcastle both played quite late into the Cup last year before they were both felled by eventual runners-up Sporting Lisbon in consecutive rounds, so all three should move on, at least at this stage. With some of the scoring issues, though, I'd keep an eye on it.

I gave up trying to avoid the Manchester derby results because it was driving me crazy; I'm happy with the draw, needless to say, and hoping for a win in the rematch. I saw the condensed highlights on the review show; it looked pretty much like this. "Man U shot, oh! Man U shot, oh! Man U shot, oh! Man U shot, oh! Man U shot, goal! Man City shot, oh! Man U shot, oh! Man U shot, oh! Man U shot, oh! Man U shot, oh! Man City shot, goal! Man U shot, oh! Game over." So yeah, United appear to have dominated the run of play for most of the game, but City's defense was strong enough to hold for the draw, and you can't be unhappy with that. (Even if Andy Cole nearly put in a winner late.) I'll probably still watch the full game after it plays on FSC on Tuesday and hand in a report.

Manchester Derby, Round One: Preview

I'm coming up on my first Manchester derby as a City fan, so I thought I'd take a moment to look back into history and also forward at what we might expect on Saturday.

Last City win over United: March 14, 2004; a 4-1 win at City of Manchester Stadium.

Last City win over United at Old Trafford: April 27, 1974; 1-0. Part of a seven-season span (from '67-'68 to '73-'74) in which City went 6-1-0 against United at Old Trafford in League play.

But: City have lost just once in their last four league trips to Old Trafford.

City all-time record against United: 38-48-56.

At Old Trafford: 14-25-33.

City are actually ahead of United in the standings right now, but only by a point, and United have played one fewer game, so whatever. Still, City's unbeaten league run stretches back to last March, a 2-1 loss at Spurs, for a run of 12 unbeaten games (7-5-0). Also of note: the derby has not taken place with City ahead of United in the standings since May 4th, 1991. (United won that game 1-0 at Old Trafford but still finished behind City for the year, which is also the last time that happened.)

Anyway, what to expect. Neither club has lost a game yet; United are 3-0-0 while City are 3-1-0. United's wins so far have come over Everton, Aston Villa, and struggling Newcastle; City have defeated Birmingham, Sunderland, and Portsmouth. Thus this is probably the first serious test for either club (though Everton's not bad, they haven't looked great yet), especially City.

City's wins have all come 2-1; in both the Birmingham and Portsmouth games, the opposition drew first blood and it was up to City to come back. This would not be a wise course of action against United, needless to say, who have yet to give up a goal this season. Moreover, City's new striker Andy Cole is a former Red Devil, though whether this means they'll better know how to mark him or not I'm not sure. David James' recent struggles make him all the better a target for United's pack of top-class players, that's for sure. Ruud van Nistelrooy has three goals in three league games; Wayne Rooney has United's other two. If the City defense can shut down either of those attackers, perhaps they've got a shot at stealing a win.

I doubt that, though. All good things must come to an end and City's unbeaten streak is one of them (though if it doesn't end here it could well last until late October and a trip to Highbury). The recent tendency to draw at Old Trafford leaves me somewhat hopeful, especially since this seems based on recent results to potentially be a better squad than those of the past few years, but it can't last forever, even with Fowler and Distin returning for the derby. City can challenge for Europe this year (as they did last year with the late run), but that doesn't mean they'll never lose. Still, they could be the first club to score on Man U this year. Prediction: United 2, City 1.

(Incidentally, FSC isn't showing this game until Tuesday. Do we think there's any chance at all I can go that long without seeing the result?)

Survivor: Guatemala

A shrug of the shoulders and a hearty "eh" to the U.S.'s 0-0 draw in Guatemala on Wednesday night. ESPN2 was showing a Mets-Braves game that ran long, so the game cut in at the 23rd minute, which was a bit irritating but I guess understandable (the Mets-Braves game at least had potential playoff ramifications, while the U.S. has, of course, already clinched).

Anyway, we didn't miss much. Starting an entirely different 11 from the squad that took on Mexico (in fact, the only starters who had even played in Columbus were Pablo Mastroeni, Santino Quaranta, and Jeff Cunningham, who were the U.S.'s three subs in that game), the Americans looked for most of the game like they were playing for the 0-0 draw they ended up getting - lazy long passes, not much attacking, concerned mostly with keeping Guatemala off the board. Late in the game things started to pick up a bit, especially when Eddie Johnson came on in the 57th minute and Landon Donovan in the 64th, and the U.S. did blow a few opportunities right in front of the Guatemalan goal, in particular a 3-on-2 break that concluded with Johnson knocking a header well wide to the right of the net. But Donovan probably should have just blasted a finisher there rather than offering it up; the other U.S. problem for most of the night was simply too much passing and not enough shooting. It was like the U.S. team wanted Guatemala to have a point and decided they weren't going to shoot unless they were already inside the six-yard box.

At least the defensive effort wasn't bad, putting up a clean sheet with a second-string team at Guatemala, a place the U.S. has apparently never won, against a team that wanted the game a lot more. Yeah, there were some lapses here and there, but again, considering that this wasn't the first team, I'll take a little luck if things worked out overall, which they did. It's too bad we couldn't ever bury a winner, but sometimes that's how these things go.

The U.S. is now tied atop the group with Mexico on 19 points. We should own the tiebreaker, holding the edge in goal differential (+1 to -1) in the two games. I'm not sure it matters much, though. We're talking about the World Cup here - even if a protected seed does exist, you're pretty much always going to end up in a group with some world power. Look at 2002 - we drew Portugal and the host South Koreans, Mexico drew Italy and 1998 third-place finishers Croatia, and Costa Rica - which led CONCACAF in points - drew Brazil and eventual third-place finishers Turkey! (Needless to say, they were the only CONCACAF team of the three not to advance to the knockout rounds.) So maybe finishing second would actually be better. I suspect that's what will happen; we finish with Panama at home, likely a win even with second-teamers, but the game at Costa Rica could well be a loss, as they'll be playing to seal their ticket to Germany and it's in San José. (We lost that game 2-0 in the qualifying for the 2002 Cup.) I say 22, max 23 points; meanwhile, Mexico host Guatemala and play at Trinidad and Tobago, both games they should win even if they choose to field a secondary squad. (Personally, I get the feeling that the Mexicans will want to take top of the group as if to show the U.S. that they are still the #1 team in the region, and that they may continue to play most of their top players as a result. More power to them if that's the case; I'll take a healthier team over a meaningless first place.)

UEFA doubleheader

Two consecutive UEFA World Cup qualifiers on FSC today - one live, one on a half-hour tape delay. Reports from those:

Czech Republic 4-1 Armenia

It was a game that was simultaneously closer than the final score indicated and yet probably not as close. The Armenians had the best chance of the first half, when lone striker Ara Hakobyan had to be met and denied by Czech keeper Jaromir Blazek at the edge of the 18-yard box; Hakobyan, playing up in what seemed to be a 4-5-1 formation, was left unchecked on a surprising number of occasions, the last of which led to Armenia’s lone goal on a nice finish in the 86th minute. By then, of course, the game was over; though the Czechs struggled against Armenia’s solid defense in the first half, they picked things up in the second. Their first two goals, from Marek Heinz in the 47th minute and Jan Polak in the 52nd, were off deflections and not reflective of great finishing, but Armenia let them keep firing away, and that’s what’s going to happen. Roman Berezovsky had a great first half but he couldn’t hold off the Czechs forever. Milan Baros made it three when he tapped in a rebound in the 58th, and Polak collected his second with a blast – easily the most impressive Czech goal – from about 23 yards in the 76th minute.
Game ball goes to: Vladimir Smicer, who came on as a substitute at halftime with his team floundering and immediately injected some life into them in the midfield.
Impressed the most: Has to be Hakobyan, who looked surprisingly good considering how little help he had. Perhaps the Czech defense just didn’t take him seriously, but he probably should have put Armenia up 1-0 in the 30th minute on his breakaway (at which point we would have been looking at a very different game), and he had a good touch to get the visitors on the board late.
Snakebit: Baros, who had trouble finishing all day. It’s never that impressive when a striker’s only goal in numerous chances comes dribbling off his thigh after the goaltender has weakly deflected a free kick. Aside from his goal Baros frequently looked lost with some of his passes and couldn’t seem to even put the ball directly on net when he had it.
Final impression: Credit Armenia for hanging in there as long as they did, but look wary if you’re a Czech Republic fan. This game was at home, even if it wasn’t in Prague, so to let the little guy hang around that long, and score half of your goals due partially to fortunate bounces, is a little worrying. With group leaders the Netherlands coming to town on October 8, the Czechs face a schedule that lets them play their way to the top of the group – but that’s only if they’re up to the task.

Belarus 1-4 Italy

Belarus got on the board in just the fourth minute, but Italy wasn’t rattled by this shock goal, scoring two in the next ten minutes to take a lead they would not relinquish. What should scare other teams is that the Italians did not seem like they were playing their best football, and they still won going away, albeit against a somewhat lesser nation.
Game ball goes to: Luca Toni, who scored Italy’s first two goals and then put in a third on a nice Italian break in the 55th for his first international hat trick.
Impressed the most: Has to be Toni, who put in his first goals in World Cup qualifying since scoring the winner in Italy’s very first qualifying match against Norway last September.
Snakebit: The Belarusian attack, which spent most of the second half on the Italian side of the field but couldn’t get anything through. While their passing was crisp for most of the match, Belarus’ finishing never matched the level of the Azzurri.
Final impression: Italy can surely look better offensively – which, again, is a scary thought. They’re vulnerable as long as they maintain a formation that puts only three men back on defense, however; Belarus exploited the defensive holes all day long, but just couldn’t finish anything. A stronger offensive team probably wouldn’t let so many chances go by.

So, after today's games, an update on the groups with now no more than two matches left for anyone.

Group 1: The Netherlands are still top by four points, on 28 to the Czechs' 24, with two matches left. Romania is on 22 with one match left; they're likely done, as the Czechs need just two points out of their final two games to go clear (and that's even assuming Romania wins their final game at Finland on October 8). The Dutch are in command of the group; even if they lose to the Czechs on October 8, their final game is against 2-2-7 Macedonia. Right now the Czechs will be looking to finish in the top two second place teams and avoid the playoffs; not losing to the Dutch will help that cause.

Group 2: Ukraine has the group won, but second place is still up for grabs - Turkey is on 20 points after beating Ukraine today, but Greece and Denmark also won and are on 18 and 16 points respectively. The worse news for Turkey is that both Greece and Denmark have two games left, while the Turks have only one (it's against Albania; Turkey won the first match 2-0). The good news is that Greece and Denmark will play each other on October 8. A win by Turkey in the Albania game would take them clear of Denmark, so they'll be rooting for the Danes on the 8th. Greece and Denmark both finish with minnows (Georgia and Kazakhstan), but as long as Turkey beats Albania and Greece doesn't win the Denmark game, Turkey is through. If Greece beats Denmark, however, that last day is going to be a sweaty one in Ankara.

Group 3: Portugal's scoreless draw in Russia got it one step closer to winning the group; on 24 points, five clear of Russia and Slovakia, Portugal needs just two points in the remaining two games to win the group. They were held to a shock draw in Vaduz in their first match against Liechtenstein, but the reverse tilt in Portugal seems like a likely win, which would do it. The real battle is now for second; Slovakia and Russia are tied at 19 and finish with each other on October 12 (the previous match was a 1-1 draw in Moscow last year). The Russians face awful minnows Luxembourg on the 8th and so will assuredly enter with 22 points; Slovakia must take care of Estonia, who are on 14 points and thus not mathematically eliminated yet. (Slovakia hosts after winning the first match 2-1 in Tallinn.)

Group 4: Still a real mess. After beating Ireland 1-0 today, France has climbed to 16 points, tied with Switzerland. Israel is now third on 15 points after taking care of the Faeroes; Ireland is still on 13 points. Switzerland must still play France and Ireland; Ireland and France each play Switzerland and Cyprus. Assuming both take care of business against Cyprus and Israel beats the Faeroes a second time, Israel will be on 18 points, France on 19, Switzerland on 16, and Ireland on 16. This leaves the Swiss/French game and the Swiss/Irish game. If both are draws (as the first ones were), France will win the group and Israel will advance to the playoffs. But if the Swiss win either game or Ireland wins, Israel is out. It's still far too complicated to call.

Group 5: Italy's win over Belarus helped them, as did Norway tripping at home against Scotland; the Azzurri need only draw Slovenia at home on October 8 to win the group. The Scots aren't out of it yet; they must host Belarus and travel to Slovenia still, but if they can get six points out of those two matches, they would advance if Norway manages two or fewer out of its final two games against Belarus and Moldova, or if Norway makes only four and the goal differential turns in Scotland's favor. (Currently Norway is +3, while Scotland is at 0.) Two wins for Norway advance them to at least the playoffs regardless of other outcomes, as they own two wins over Slovenia, with whom they are currently tied on 12 points.

Group 6: England's shock loss to Northern Ireland leaves them stuck on 19 points, while Poland's defeat of Wales moved them to 24. Poland has only one match remaining, however, and it's at England - meaning England controls its own destiny in the group. Win the final two matches, home contests against Austria and Poland, and they win the group. With Austria's scoreless draw against Azerbaijan today, England did officially clinch no worse than a playoff spot, though they might still qualify automatically even if they fail to beat Poland. Still, the group will come down to that game, unless Austria can trip England on October 8.

Group 7: A goal in the 68th minute pulled Serbia & Montenegro even with Spain, leaving the Serbs top of the group on 16 points and four ahead of Spain in goal differential. Spain finishes with Belgium and minnows San Marino, while Serbia closes with Lithuania and Bosnia. The Bosnians, on 13 points after a win today, aren't out of it yet, just one back of Spain. Assuming Spain holds form and beats Belgium and San Marino as they did in their previous matches with those two nations, however, Bosnia's only hope is to catch the Serbs for second place, which would still be possible if they beat them in the last match on October 12. Bosnia's previous match before that will be against San Marino, which should leave them no worse than three back of Serbia going into that final game in Belgrade, and a win in the final match would give Bosnia the tiebreaker, as the teams drew 0-0 in their first meeting.

Group 8: Sweden's defeat of Hungary today puts them top of the group on 21 points, one ahead of Croatia after the latter's embarrassing draw at minnows Malta. Sweden and Croatia will meet in Zagreb on October 8; a win by Sweden would clinch the group for them, while a win by Croatia would put them up two and needing just a draw in their final match with Hungary to win the group. (Croatia owns a 1-0 win over Sweden in Gothenburg last year.) Hungary's loss eliminated them from contention.

In other words, we aren't much closer to working it all out. The 8th and 12th of October are going to be sweet.

In other brief news, Australia won the second leg in Honiara to beat the Solomon Islands 9-1 on aggregate. They will move along to face the #5 South American nation, most likely either Colombia or Chile. Australia has played in four consecutive playoffs before this year, losing all of them (to Uruguay in 2002, Iran in 1998, Argentina in 1994, and Scotland in 1990). Australia's only previous appearance in the World Cup came in 1974 in Germany, where they went 0-1-2. Incidentally, the team they got their only point against with that draw? Chile, a possible opponent in this year's CONMEBOL/OCF playoff.