The field is nearly set

Saturday's slate of games hardly set the entire World Cup field, but by the end of Wednesday everything will be decided except for the handful of playoff spots. Then it's an agonizing two-month wait for the draw, followed by another half-year before we actually get to watch the whole thing play out. World Cup years - and the ones preceding them because of the qualifying - are actually terrible times to be a fan of club soccer, because your team's players are frequently taking off to play in international games and sometimes return from them hurt, an aggrieving problem that's becoming so common that the G14, a group of Europe's biggest clubs including Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, AC and Inter Milan, Juventus, Real Madrid, Ajax, Bayern Munich, and Barcelona, is threatening to start withholding its players from international matches if compensation for the clubs isn't arranged, especially for when a player gets injured during international duty and has to miss time with his club.

(When you think about it, this makes a lot of sense - clubs shell out most of the money, then the national squads step in, wear the players down, and toss them back. I'm one of the people who thinks that playing for one's country should trump any club obligations, not least because players shuttle between clubs in international soccer more than in any of the North American pro sports. But it's not really fair for the national associations to shrug their shoulders when injuries happen, leaving the clubs on the hook for a player who didn't even get hurt while playing for them.)

On the other hand, they're great times to be a fan of world soccer, and since I don't have the energy to follow more than one premier league regularly (the EPL, natch), it's nice to be able to keep track of what everyone in every corner of the globe is doing without feeling like you're overstepping your bounds. With that said, let's take a look at how qualifying is shaking out as it rumbles to a close.

UEFA
Group One: With 31 points, and seven clear of the Czechs with one game to go, the Netherlands have wrapped up the top spot in this group, doing so with a 2-0 win over the Czechs in Prague yesterday. The second spot is still up for grabs; Romania claimed it with a 1-0 defeat of Finland, but they don't play another game, whereas the Czechs, just a point behind, head to Helsinki on Wednesday. Presumably this is a win for them and a spot in Germany (at 9-0-3, the Czechs would be at a .750 winning percentage, a mark that only England and Sweden, among second place teams, could challenge), but the difficulty of sorting out the tiebreakers here when not all teams play the same number of games is enough that I'm not going to bother calculating it.

Group Two: This one's been settled for a while, with Ukraine walking away with it. However, the second spot is very much up for grabs. Denmark surged into third on 19 points with a 1-0 defeat of Greece yesterday; Turkey is on 20 and the Euro 2004 champs are stuck on 18. All three face the group's bottom dwellers on Wednesday; Turkey has the hardest test, taking on four-win Albania in Albania (where the Albanians beat Greece, fresh off their Euro 2004 win, a year-plus ago), while Denmark gets woeful 0-1-10 Kazakhstan. Greece gets Georgia. A win by Turkey puts them through, likely to a playoff; a loss by Turkey and Denmark can get through with a win or draw; a loss by Turkey and a loss or draw by Denmark and Greece can get through with a win. A Turkish draw, Greek win and Danish loss would result in yet another scenario; having played to two goalless draws with Turkey, Greece would be out on goal differential unless they beat Georgia by eight goals.

Group Three: Portugal clinched their spot with a no-kidding win over Liechtenstein, though they actually had to come back to do it, trailing 1-0 at halftime at home before equalizing shortly into the second half and sealing the win on Nuno Gomes' goal at 86 minutes. Slovakia and Russia both won to stay deadlocked in second at 22 points - one game left and guess what? They meet in Slovakia on Wednesday, one of a handful of do-or-die games that make qualifying so great. If the teams manage to draw, the score would matter - 0-0 sends the Slovaks through, anything at 2-2 or higher sends the Russians through, and 1-1 means we head for goal differential, with Slovakia holding a decisive edge. If I'm Russia, I worry about scoring two goals first and then just hope the rest takes care of itself.

Group Four: As much of a mess as ever. Israel now lead the group on 18 points, but Switzerland and France both have 17 and the Irish have 16. The Israelis are done, meaning they need a ton of help. France and Switzerland both hold tiebreakers with Israel on away goals, leaving the only option for the Israelis to advance a scenario in which Ireland defeats Switzerland at Lansdowne Road to win the group and, at the same time, 1-1-7 Cyprus manages to stun an injury-decimated France squad in Paris. Even with their injuries, France is most likely going through (a 1-1 draw on Saturday gives them the away goal tiebreaker with the Swiss); it's second place that is more likely to be decided in the Switzerland-Ireland clash, another winner-takes-all battle that almost certainly means the difference between second and fourth. Since a draw would be enough for the Swiss to advance, look for them to play conservatively. My best guess is that France and Switzerland come out of this group, since wins among the top four have been at a premium all year.

Group Five: Italy, on 20 points, wrapped up the top spot after putting Slovenia away late. With Scotland's loss to Belarus, combined with Norway's win over Moldova, eliminating the Scots' slim hopes, Norway wrapped up the second spot, as Slovenia is the only team that could catch the Norwegians - but they can at best tie, and Norway has defeated Slovenia twice in qualifying. That makes Group Five the only group that is resolved going into the final day.

Group Six: England may not have looked great, but they took care of business by beating Austria, making the final day's showdown against Poland another winner-take-all match. The Poles are on 24 points and two clear of England, so only a win will send the English through, though even a loss or tie will earn them a spot in the field because of their gaudy 7-1-1 record. So actually, the last match here doesn't mean much - though it will determine the winner of the group, the loser is going to Germany without a playoff regardless.

Group Seven: Serbia, Spain, and Bosnia all won on Saturday to stay close - on 19, 17, and 16 points respectively. Serbia and Bosnia face off on Wednesday, while Spain get minnows San Marino. Spain will clearly top the group if Serbia fail to win; a win by Bosnia would send them through and leave the Serbs out, which would be a shocking result for a team that has only conceded a single goal - away to Spain in a 1-1 draw - in qualifying so far.

Group Eight: Croatia's 1-0 win in their head-to-head match yesterday was huge, putting the Croats top of the group on 23 points (at 7-2-0, they are in a select group of unbeaten teams). The last day's results could still swing the group, but they would require not only Sweden to defeat Iceland at home (the likely outcome), but Croatia to lose their first of qualifying at Hungary. This is possible, but not likely. The Swedes should take heart, however, as a win would leave them at 8-0-2 and should send them through as the second automatic qualifier of the second-place clubs.

AFRICA
Group One: Togo clinched the group in sensational fashion on Saturday, coming back from a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 over Congo in Brazzaville. The win kept them two ahead of Senegal, the feel-good story of the 2002 Cup, who won 3-0 over Mali in classic too-little, too-late fashion. Of Africa's five qualifiers, four are first-timers; Togo is one of those.

Group Two: Ghana needed only a draw against lowly Cape Verde to go through, and did so in fine 4-0 fashion. Congo DR, the only squad that could even mathematically catch Ghana, gained only a draw with South Africa.

Group Three: A month after a debilitating 3-2 home loss put Ivory Coast a point behind Cameroon for the group title, the Elephants won 3-1 at Sudan while the Indomitable Lions stumbled to a 1-1 home draw with Egypt thanks to a missed penalty in stoppage time. Talk about a reversal of fortune.

Group Four: Angola's head-to-head edge over Nigeria meant the Super Eagles needed a win and for Angola not to win to make it back to the World Cup. However, while Nigeria were pounding Zimbabwe 5-1, Angola slipped past Rwanda 1-0 in Kigali on a header by captain Fabrice Akwa in the 80th minute.

Group Five: The only African qualifier to have appeared in a previous World Cup final, Tunisia drew Morocco 2-2 to remain a point ahead at the top of the group and assure qualification.

CONMEBOL
Paraguay and Ecuador sealed their spots in the field with, respectively, a 1-0 win over Venezuela and a 0-0 draw with Uruguay. With one game left, the playoff spot - the right to face Australia in a two-legged playoff - is all that remains. Uruguay hold the spot on 22 points but must host Argentina on Wednesday. Chasers Colombia and Chile, on 21 points each, travel to Paraguay and host Ecuador, respectively. Various outcomes remain possible for the final spot.

CONCACAF
Costa Rica's 3-0 triumph over an uncoordinated U.S. side puts them through to the Finals once more. The playoff spot, which goes up against the Asian playoff winner, is currently held by Trinidad and Tobago on ten points. Guatemala, on eight, are still alive; both teams have tough but winnable matches coming up. Guatemala host Costa Rica, while Trinidad host Mexico; the Mexicans need at least a point to clinch overall first place (whether they think that matters remains to be seen), while Costa Rica cannot move up unless the U.S. lose to winless Panama (an unlikely turn of events). If Guatemala win, Trinidad must win to get through; if Guatemala do anything else, T&T are through no matter what.

ASIA
In what was not quite the worst-case scenario, Uzbekistan managed only a 1-1 draw with Bahrain in the controversial replay of their match last month that was declared void due to a refereeing mistake. Uzbekistan now head to Bahrain for the reverse needing a win; a 2-2 (or greater) draw would also be enough for the Uzbeks; 1-1 would lead to a shootout.

Wednesday's going to be fun in Europe, huh?