World Cup draw reaction

Bad day to be the United States, but good day to be a seeded team - there are only a couple of groups that look really challenging top to bottom, which you figure bodes well for the favorites. A quick look across the board:

Group A
Germany
Ecuador
Poland
Costa Rica

Hard to imagine the hosts not waltzing through this one, despite their recent "struggles" (in friendlies) - the tournament hosts have never failed to advance from the group stages (not even the U.S. in '94), and this isn't exactly the hardest group. Costa Rica is the least of CONCACAF's automatic qualifiers, Ecuador can't play at sea level, and Poland aren't bad but not exactly the class of Pool 3.

Group B
England
Paraguay
Sweden
Trinidad and Tobago

Four years ago England and Sweden met in the Group of Death and were the two teams to qualify out of it; it would be pretty surprising if they didn't advance again. Paraguay were feisty in '02, making the round of 16 and giving Germany a battle before conceding a goal in the 88th minute, but much depends on Roque Santa Cruz's health, which has been spotty of late. Either way, an England team playing to full potential should go 3-0-0, but second place could be up for debate if the Paraguayans do as well. Sweden, though, was one of the higher-scoring teams in UEFA qualifying. T&T are 0-3 waiting to happen.

Group C
Argentina
Ivory Coast
Netherlands
Serbia and Montenegro

Considered by most to be the Group of Death for this year, putting Argentina in it two Cups in a row. Group C boasts two teams ranked in the current FIFA top five (Argentina and Holland), probably the strongest team of the six African qualifiers (Ivory Coast), and a team that allowed just one goal in ten European qualifiers and went undefeated in a group that included Spain (Serbia). Argentina and Holland have still got to be the favorites, but a surprise or two could make the knockouts... well, probably less interesting. Wouldn't you rather see the best teams get that far?

Group D
Mexico
Angola
Portugal
Iran

Mexico barely got seeded at all, and their reward - thanks to the random draw - is a spot at the head of the easiest group. Sure, Portugal are no pushovers, scoring more than 30 goals in qualifying and conceding just a handful, but they also crashed out in 2002 as favorites in their group and have virtually no World Cup pedigree - this will be just their third World Cup in the 40 years since they finished third in 1966 and they're still looking for their first advancement to the knockout rounds. That said, Angola are possibly the weakest side in the tournament and Iran are not the best Asia has to offer. Mexico and Portugal will advance barring something shocking.

Group E
Italy
Ghana
Czech Republic
United States

In the U.S.' first WC appearance in 40 years (and start of their current five-Cup run), in 1990, their group in Italy included the hosts, Austria, and Czechoslovakia. Ringing any bells? The U.S. went 0-3 in that group, unsurprisingly, including a 5-1 loss to Czechoslovakia. This time around the Americans are much stronger, and Kasey Keller is a 36-year-old starting keeper rather than a 20-year-old reserve. But the parallels are a tad unsettling, especially with the Czechs ranked #2 in the world at the moment. The Italians must also have their guards up - they are the seeded team in this group, but the last time they missed the knockout stages at a World Cup came in 1974... in Germany. (Italy have won a World Cup since then.) Two top-ten teams staring them in the face can't be that appealing, even if the general world perception is that America is ranked too highly. Ghana cannot be written off either; they are probably the second most dangerous of the African teams and feature international stars like Michael Essien. This will be a severe test for the U.S., but if I had to pick just one of the eight seeds to trip before the knockout stages, Italy would be it - there is at least the potential that it could be beneficial to the U.S. not to be expected to advance, similarly to 2002. Of course, even if the U.S. does advance they'd probably have to face the top team in the next group...

Group F
Brazil
Australia
Croatia
Japan

This group is an interesting case. Brazil will probably go 3-0 and waltz out of it, but beyond that I could see any of the three teams below them taking second spot. Guus Hiddink seems to have the Midas touch, guiding his last two WC squads ('98 Holland and '02 South Korea) to fourth place; this will be more of a challenge but just getting the Aussies to the knockout stages will be considered a success. Japan will likely not fare as well as in '02 without the home field advantage; Croatia were surprise third-place finishers in '98 but don't look to have as much talent as that team did. I might pick Australia to slip through in second here. Interesting note: Brazil won just one of their five Cups on European soil (1958, their first, in Sweden).

Group G
France
Togo
Switzerland
South Korea

France was embarrassing in crashing out of the '02 Cup as holders without scoring a single goal, but they have some of their stars back and don't face a particularly challenging group. Togo will likely just be happy to be there; the Swiss gave France a fight in qualifying but don't look as talented on paper; South Korea will not perform to the same level as in '02 now that they aren't hosting and aren't led by Hiddink. The two German neighbors will probably move on from this one.

Group H
Spain
Tunisia
Ukraine
Saudi Arabia

Tunisia and Saudi Arabia have six World Cup appearances between them... and just three wins. (Two of those came in 1994, when the Saudis made a surprise round of 16 appearance in their first trip to the World Cup.) Spain have a reputation for underachieving, failing to advance beyond the quarterfinals in 11 previous appearances, but they won't be tripped up by this group. Ukraine were impressive in running away with a qualifying group that included defending third-place finishers Turkey and defending Euro holders Greece, but they haven't appeared on the big stage since attaining independence.

So... probably not as interesting on the group level as we might like. On the other hand, you'd probably prefer to get as many strong teams to the knockout rounds as possible if you're really a fan of top-class football, and who isn't?