7/6/10, 1:30 pm CT: Netherlands vs. Uruguay
The Netherlands have to be heavy favorites here. Uruguay, for my money, have defeated what were probably the worst teams available to play in each round; only Slovakia could give South Korea a run for worst Round of 16 qualifier and Paraguay - who had a much more impressive defense - are the only team that fall into Ghana's category in the quarters, with the remainder of the bunch (bar Uruguay) being top ten sides. At the same time, I'm still not convinced we know just how good the Dutch are; even in beating Brazil, they looked mediocre in the first half and their second half surge came via some slack Brazilian defending and then an utter mental collapse on the part of the Brazilians. But the Dutch are clearly better than Uruguay, especially since Uruguay - the only South American side still standing; who would have thought? - will be without attacking threat Luis Suarez due to his red card against Ghana.
Prediction: Netherlands 2, Uruguay 1
7/7/10, 1:30 pm CT: Germany vs. Spain
We all thought Germany/Argentina would be the game of the tournament, and it was a rout. This game shows promise to take the mantle, but I'm a bit worried for Spain here. They haven't been a high-flying offense in the tournament - blanked by Switzerland, two goals each against Honduras and Chile, a goal each against Portugal and Paraguay - and while that may be due in part to the defense of their opponents, how convincing can you be winning your games 1-0 and 1-0 while Germany have won 4-1 and 4-0? We know Germany can be shut down by the right defense - Serbia blanked them - but is Spain that defense? The Germans are confident, they have pace, they won't be intimidated by Spanish possession. Spain have to score more than one goal this time out, or it's into the third-place game for them, and we get our rematch of the 1974 final. I want Spain to win, but my head is finding it hard to pick them right now.
Prediction: Germany 3, Spain 1
Monday, July 05, 2010
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Quarterfinal recap
Uruguay 1-1 Ghana (Uruguay 4-2 pens)
Oh, the controversy in the wake of this one. Ghana took a 1-0 lead just before halftime via a Sulley Muntari blast from distance that caught Fernando Muslera napping in the Uruguay goal; Diego Forlan tied things up in the 55th with a perfect free kick. And then the game went on... and on... and on... and finally, things seemed to be going Ghana's way late. They were chasing a goal, and they were pushing into the Uruguayan box, and the ball was headed over the line... and Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez, who amazingly was back defending the goal line, reached up and swatted the ball away with his hands. It was, of course, a red card and a penalty kick... but Asamoah Gyan, the hero of the US game and a man who had already scored twice from the penalty spot during the World Cup with the winning goal against Serbia and the tying goal against Australia - both penalties the result of handballs in the box as well, and one on the line though not as definitely deliberate as Suarez's, missed the kick. Gyan stepped up and had Muslera, diving to his left, fooled; at least two-thirds of the goal gaped for Gyan to virtually tap home. And instead, he blasted it off the crossbar. We were headed for a shootout.
There is, of course, nothing quite as poetically unfair as the penalty shootout in soccer. You don't need to be the best team on the day - if you can manage to get it to a shootout, you basically have as good a chance to win as the other team does. In 2005, Man City lost in a shootout to Doncaster Rovers, then in League One (the third division of English football), when Doncaster's backup goalie got insanely hot out of nowhere and stopped every penalty City took, even though they had by no means been the better team on the day. Whether Uruguay had played better than Ghana is arguable; the Ghanaians certainly had more shots, although Uruguay had more corner kicks (suggesting better shot quality and/or more attacking pressure), and the possession was fairly even. And to say that the team that is better at shooting penalties deserves to win isn't really the way to go, in my opinion. But with that said, Uruguay were unquestionably better at shooting penalties. Gyan stepped up for Ghan and slotted home, placing the ball in an unsaveable location in the top right corner, presumably what he had been hoping to do in the first place. Steven Appiah, second up for Ghana, also converted. But John Mensah went third and took one of the worst penalty attempts you will ever see. Muslera saved it; I suspect I could have saved it. It was awful. Uruguay missed their fourth kick, Maxi Pereira hitting the ball into about the 20th row, but Dominic Adiyiah - who had been denied the winning goal by Suarez's handball - hit a shot that was little better than Mensah's, and Muslera saved that too. Uruguay made their next kick (a vicious little chip from Sebastian Abreu) and that was that.
The topic of debate then centered on Suarez's handball. He was decried as a cheat; people screamed about how Ghana were robbed of a rightful win by his actions. This was, of course, true in some ways. But it's been my position that to call Suarez a cheat completely overlooks the fact that everything that happened was in complete accordance with the rules of the game. According to the rules of the game, an intentional handball in the box means a red card for the offender and a penalty kick to the aggrieved team. If you assume that Suarez was thinking at all - personally, I think it was simply an instinctive reaction that probably didn't spend much time in his brain at all - presumably he was thinking that by stopping the ball, he was momentarily preserving his team's chances. By forcing Ghana to make a penalty kick instead, he was at least leaving the door open; by simply stepping aside because he could not reach the ball with a legal part of his body, he was dooming his team to defeat.
This, it is claimed, is cheating. But I don't really agree. It is, it seems to me, gamesmanship. What Suarez did was completely within the rules - in the sense that, yes, he made an illegal play, but he was also thoroughly punished for it in the way the rules of the game prescribe. He was ejected; Ghana were given a free shot at the goal. As it happens, Asamoah Gyan completely blew the kick. If Gyan makes it, are we talking about Suarez? Doubtful. Would we be talking about this if Suarez had brought Adiyiah down from behind on a breakaway? No; he'd probably be praised for denying the sure goal and forcing Ghana to make the spot kick. The only real difference here is that we can all say with certainty that if Suarez isn't standing there, the ball goes in. But, again, what happened fell within the rules, and Ghana blew it. Should the rules be changed? Maybe, although I think that that's an overreaction to a single episode in the first place and gives the referee a dangerous amount of subjective power to award "clear goals" in the second. Ultimately, Ghana really have no one to blame for their exit but themselves; while penalty kicks are by no means gimmes, they had two-thirds of a gaping net from twelve yards to win the game and couldn't hit it.
Netherlands 2-1 Brazil
A pretty shocking result, all told. I only saw part of this game, and it was in the first half with Brazil up 1-0 and looking more or less in control. Things unraveled in the second, with severe miscommunication between defender Felipe Melo and keeper Julio Cesar leading to a rather hopeful Wesley Sneijder ball finding its way into the back of the net to equalize, and Sneijder knocking in a header on which the Brazilian defenders seemed completely unprepared and Cesar barely moved. Melo compounded his woes by getting sent off for stamping on Arjen Robben, and the Brazilians completely fell apart. Suddenly the Dutch must be favorites to get to the finals... where a 1974 revenge match could await them.
Germany 4-0 Argentina
I'm honestly not sure whether this result is more or less shocking than the Netherlands winning, though ultimately I would say less because Germany so dominated the entire game that it would have been incredible if they hadn't won. Argentina's defense finally showed its true colors; facing a quick offense packed with clinical finishers, the back line had no chance. Germany's own defense, which some had questioned, certainly showed up; while Argentina had more shots on goal than the Germans, not one of the seven gave Manuel Neuer any real trouble - the Argentinians didn't have a single shot from inside the German six-yard box, while three of the four German goals were inside the six-yard box and the fourth only about two yards beyond. Messi and Tevez, whose pace had so devastated the other teams they'd faced, were largely non-factors in this game. After seeing this result, one begins to wonder how the Germans can be stopped.
Spain 1-0 Paraguay
As weird a game as you're going to see. Spain, typically, dominated possession but had a hard time cracking Paraguay's defense. Paraguay, less typically, had some good chances to score and perhaps should have in the first half, an effort called back for what seemed to be a fairly dodgy offsides. In the second half, Paraguay earned a penalty, which Iker Casillas saved; almost immediately, Spain earned a penalty at the other end. Xabi Alonso scored, but it was called back for encroachment (which probably should have happened on the Paraguayan PK, necessitating a retake as well); on the second attempt, Alonso's kick - a much poorer attempt than his first - was saved by Justo Villar (who then may have gotten away with a penalty-worthy takedown of Cesc Fabregas as the two went for the rebound). And then when Spain finally scored, in the 83rd minute, it was only after Pedro hit the post; David Villa's rebound bounced off both posts before finally deciding to settle into the net. Ultimately you have to say the better team won, but Paraguay were certainly game. Perhaps they all had Larissa Riquelme in mind.
Oh, the controversy in the wake of this one. Ghana took a 1-0 lead just before halftime via a Sulley Muntari blast from distance that caught Fernando Muslera napping in the Uruguay goal; Diego Forlan tied things up in the 55th with a perfect free kick. And then the game went on... and on... and on... and finally, things seemed to be going Ghana's way late. They were chasing a goal, and they were pushing into the Uruguayan box, and the ball was headed over the line... and Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez, who amazingly was back defending the goal line, reached up and swatted the ball away with his hands. It was, of course, a red card and a penalty kick... but Asamoah Gyan, the hero of the US game and a man who had already scored twice from the penalty spot during the World Cup with the winning goal against Serbia and the tying goal against Australia - both penalties the result of handballs in the box as well, and one on the line though not as definitely deliberate as Suarez's, missed the kick. Gyan stepped up and had Muslera, diving to his left, fooled; at least two-thirds of the goal gaped for Gyan to virtually tap home. And instead, he blasted it off the crossbar. We were headed for a shootout.
There is, of course, nothing quite as poetically unfair as the penalty shootout in soccer. You don't need to be the best team on the day - if you can manage to get it to a shootout, you basically have as good a chance to win as the other team does. In 2005, Man City lost in a shootout to Doncaster Rovers, then in League One (the third division of English football), when Doncaster's backup goalie got insanely hot out of nowhere and stopped every penalty City took, even though they had by no means been the better team on the day. Whether Uruguay had played better than Ghana is arguable; the Ghanaians certainly had more shots, although Uruguay had more corner kicks (suggesting better shot quality and/or more attacking pressure), and the possession was fairly even. And to say that the team that is better at shooting penalties deserves to win isn't really the way to go, in my opinion. But with that said, Uruguay were unquestionably better at shooting penalties. Gyan stepped up for Ghan and slotted home, placing the ball in an unsaveable location in the top right corner, presumably what he had been hoping to do in the first place. Steven Appiah, second up for Ghana, also converted. But John Mensah went third and took one of the worst penalty attempts you will ever see. Muslera saved it; I suspect I could have saved it. It was awful. Uruguay missed their fourth kick, Maxi Pereira hitting the ball into about the 20th row, but Dominic Adiyiah - who had been denied the winning goal by Suarez's handball - hit a shot that was little better than Mensah's, and Muslera saved that too. Uruguay made their next kick (a vicious little chip from Sebastian Abreu) and that was that.
The topic of debate then centered on Suarez's handball. He was decried as a cheat; people screamed about how Ghana were robbed of a rightful win by his actions. This was, of course, true in some ways. But it's been my position that to call Suarez a cheat completely overlooks the fact that everything that happened was in complete accordance with the rules of the game. According to the rules of the game, an intentional handball in the box means a red card for the offender and a penalty kick to the aggrieved team. If you assume that Suarez was thinking at all - personally, I think it was simply an instinctive reaction that probably didn't spend much time in his brain at all - presumably he was thinking that by stopping the ball, he was momentarily preserving his team's chances. By forcing Ghana to make a penalty kick instead, he was at least leaving the door open; by simply stepping aside because he could not reach the ball with a legal part of his body, he was dooming his team to defeat.
This, it is claimed, is cheating. But I don't really agree. It is, it seems to me, gamesmanship. What Suarez did was completely within the rules - in the sense that, yes, he made an illegal play, but he was also thoroughly punished for it in the way the rules of the game prescribe. He was ejected; Ghana were given a free shot at the goal. As it happens, Asamoah Gyan completely blew the kick. If Gyan makes it, are we talking about Suarez? Doubtful. Would we be talking about this if Suarez had brought Adiyiah down from behind on a breakaway? No; he'd probably be praised for denying the sure goal and forcing Ghana to make the spot kick. The only real difference here is that we can all say with certainty that if Suarez isn't standing there, the ball goes in. But, again, what happened fell within the rules, and Ghana blew it. Should the rules be changed? Maybe, although I think that that's an overreaction to a single episode in the first place and gives the referee a dangerous amount of subjective power to award "clear goals" in the second. Ultimately, Ghana really have no one to blame for their exit but themselves; while penalty kicks are by no means gimmes, they had two-thirds of a gaping net from twelve yards to win the game and couldn't hit it.
Netherlands 2-1 Brazil
A pretty shocking result, all told. I only saw part of this game, and it was in the first half with Brazil up 1-0 and looking more or less in control. Things unraveled in the second, with severe miscommunication between defender Felipe Melo and keeper Julio Cesar leading to a rather hopeful Wesley Sneijder ball finding its way into the back of the net to equalize, and Sneijder knocking in a header on which the Brazilian defenders seemed completely unprepared and Cesar barely moved. Melo compounded his woes by getting sent off for stamping on Arjen Robben, and the Brazilians completely fell apart. Suddenly the Dutch must be favorites to get to the finals... where a 1974 revenge match could await them.
Germany 4-0 Argentina
I'm honestly not sure whether this result is more or less shocking than the Netherlands winning, though ultimately I would say less because Germany so dominated the entire game that it would have been incredible if they hadn't won. Argentina's defense finally showed its true colors; facing a quick offense packed with clinical finishers, the back line had no chance. Germany's own defense, which some had questioned, certainly showed up; while Argentina had more shots on goal than the Germans, not one of the seven gave Manuel Neuer any real trouble - the Argentinians didn't have a single shot from inside the German six-yard box, while three of the four German goals were inside the six-yard box and the fourth only about two yards beyond. Messi and Tevez, whose pace had so devastated the other teams they'd faced, were largely non-factors in this game. After seeing this result, one begins to wonder how the Germans can be stopped.
Spain 1-0 Paraguay
As weird a game as you're going to see. Spain, typically, dominated possession but had a hard time cracking Paraguay's defense. Paraguay, less typically, had some good chances to score and perhaps should have in the first half, an effort called back for what seemed to be a fairly dodgy offsides. In the second half, Paraguay earned a penalty, which Iker Casillas saved; almost immediately, Spain earned a penalty at the other end. Xabi Alonso scored, but it was called back for encroachment (which probably should have happened on the Paraguayan PK, necessitating a retake as well); on the second attempt, Alonso's kick - a much poorer attempt than his first - was saved by Justo Villar (who then may have gotten away with a penalty-worthy takedown of Cesc Fabregas as the two went for the rebound). And then when Spain finally scored, in the 83rd minute, it was only after Pedro hit the post; David Villa's rebound bounced off both posts before finally deciding to settle into the net. Ultimately you have to say the better team won, but Paraguay were certainly game. Perhaps they all had Larissa Riquelme in mind.
Thursday, July 01, 2010
World Cup 2010: Quarterfinal Predictions
I didn't talk about any of the Round of 16 games aside from the US loss, but I didn't really have much to say, in large part because the only other one I saw was Uruguay/South Korea and that one finished exactly as I predicted. (As did Argentina/Mexico, for that matter.) Let's jump to the quarterfinal predictions; I'll get to watch at least two and a half of these games, including all of what's likely to be the best one, Germany/Argentina on Saturday.
7/2/10, 9 am CT: Netherlands vs. Brazil
This match seems likely to me to go one of two ways. It will be either (a) a classic match that could go either way or (b) a Brazilian blowout. The Netherlands, while they've looked good, have yet to be tested, particularly at the back. Their group was not amazing from an offensive standpoint and they drew probably the worst team to make the knockouts, Slovakia, in the round of 16. So while the Dutch have pretty much had their way so far, I don't know of anyone who would suggest they've totally hit their stride. Brazil, meanwhile, seem to be firing on all cylinders. While they did settle for a lousy 0-0 draw with Portugal, they handle a chippy Ivory Coast team and then romped past a Chile team that most people seemed to think had at least a puncher's chance of springing the upset. (Which just goes to show that not many people really pay attention to World Cup qualifying. Chile had no chance.) The Dutch may be shakier at the back than we realize, and if so, count on Brazil to exploit that. I'm hopeful that this is a free-flowing, high-scoring game after the complaints that scoring has been too low so far; the last time these two teams met in the World Cup was the '98 semis, with Brazil winning on penalties after full time ended at 1-1, but the time before that, in the 1994 quarters, saw a five-goal second half with the Brazilians prevailing 3-2 on the way to the title. Of course, these teams are not those teams, but a 3-2 scoreline hardly seems out of the realm of possibility. Honestly, though, the only hope the Dutch have is not to have to score with Brazil. If the final is 3-2 I have a hard time picturing them on the right side of it. I'd like to see the Dutch win here - while Brazil plays attractive football I just can't root for them to get closer to yet another title - but I don't think I'll believe they have it in them until I actually see them do it.
Prediction: Brazil 3, Netherlands 1
7/2/10, 1:30 pm CT: Uruguay vs. Ghana
Hard to care about this game. In the abstract, I think it would be great if an African team advanced to the semifinals at the African World Cup. In reality, since that team is Ghana, I can't root for them - not so much because they beat the US as because of the embarrassing way they played out, or rather tried their best to avoid actually playing out, the last half of extra time. Screw 'em. Fortunately I'd be rather surprised if they did win here; Uruguay have been playing well, and while they, like Ghana, seemed to take their foot off the gas in their round of 16 game with a 1-0 lead, they turned it back on much more quickly after South Korea equalized than Ghana did after Donovan's penalty. Uruguay also seems like they'd be much more able to create a goal out of nothing, which may be needed to win a game that promises to be the most defensive of the four in this set.
Prediction: Uruguay 1, Ghana 0
7/3/10, 9 am CT: Argentina vs. Germany
If this game lives up to the hype, it could be the game of the tournament, although I think going into it expecting a 4-3 final or something would be a mistake. Given the bad blood brewing between the two camps, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be a more physical affair and to go to extra time at 1-1 or maybe 2-2. Neither team looks totally solid at the back, but I feel like I would give the Germans better odds of buckling down, though Argentina also has the more potent attack. I predict Messi still will not score - the Germans will key on him - but that Argentina will sneak out a contentious match anyway.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Germany 2
7/3/10, 1:30 pm CT: Spain vs. Paraguay
While Spain have not always been on top of their game, this looks on paper like the biggest walkover of the bunch, and if Spain can play at top level, there's no way they don't win this game going away. It doesn't hurt that Spain have only conceded two goals at the tournament and Paraguay have not had the easiest time scoring. Spain will make their first ever semifinal* and, if nothing else, will be sure to deny CONMEBOL a clean sweep of the semis.
Prediction: Spain 2, Paraguay 0
*Spain finished fourth place in 1950, but there were no knockout stages that year; the four group stage winners played a round robin for the title, with Uruguay winning the title on points following their defeat of heavily-favored Brazil on the last match day.
7/2/10, 9 am CT: Netherlands vs. Brazil
This match seems likely to me to go one of two ways. It will be either (a) a classic match that could go either way or (b) a Brazilian blowout. The Netherlands, while they've looked good, have yet to be tested, particularly at the back. Their group was not amazing from an offensive standpoint and they drew probably the worst team to make the knockouts, Slovakia, in the round of 16. So while the Dutch have pretty much had their way so far, I don't know of anyone who would suggest they've totally hit their stride. Brazil, meanwhile, seem to be firing on all cylinders. While they did settle for a lousy 0-0 draw with Portugal, they handle a chippy Ivory Coast team and then romped past a Chile team that most people seemed to think had at least a puncher's chance of springing the upset. (Which just goes to show that not many people really pay attention to World Cup qualifying. Chile had no chance.) The Dutch may be shakier at the back than we realize, and if so, count on Brazil to exploit that. I'm hopeful that this is a free-flowing, high-scoring game after the complaints that scoring has been too low so far; the last time these two teams met in the World Cup was the '98 semis, with Brazil winning on penalties after full time ended at 1-1, but the time before that, in the 1994 quarters, saw a five-goal second half with the Brazilians prevailing 3-2 on the way to the title. Of course, these teams are not those teams, but a 3-2 scoreline hardly seems out of the realm of possibility. Honestly, though, the only hope the Dutch have is not to have to score with Brazil. If the final is 3-2 I have a hard time picturing them on the right side of it. I'd like to see the Dutch win here - while Brazil plays attractive football I just can't root for them to get closer to yet another title - but I don't think I'll believe they have it in them until I actually see them do it.
Prediction: Brazil 3, Netherlands 1
7/2/10, 1:30 pm CT: Uruguay vs. Ghana
Hard to care about this game. In the abstract, I think it would be great if an African team advanced to the semifinals at the African World Cup. In reality, since that team is Ghana, I can't root for them - not so much because they beat the US as because of the embarrassing way they played out, or rather tried their best to avoid actually playing out, the last half of extra time. Screw 'em. Fortunately I'd be rather surprised if they did win here; Uruguay have been playing well, and while they, like Ghana, seemed to take their foot off the gas in their round of 16 game with a 1-0 lead, they turned it back on much more quickly after South Korea equalized than Ghana did after Donovan's penalty. Uruguay also seems like they'd be much more able to create a goal out of nothing, which may be needed to win a game that promises to be the most defensive of the four in this set.
Prediction: Uruguay 1, Ghana 0
7/3/10, 9 am CT: Argentina vs. Germany
If this game lives up to the hype, it could be the game of the tournament, although I think going into it expecting a 4-3 final or something would be a mistake. Given the bad blood brewing between the two camps, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be a more physical affair and to go to extra time at 1-1 or maybe 2-2. Neither team looks totally solid at the back, but I feel like I would give the Germans better odds of buckling down, though Argentina also has the more potent attack. I predict Messi still will not score - the Germans will key on him - but that Argentina will sneak out a contentious match anyway.
Prediction: Argentina 3, Germany 2
7/3/10, 1:30 pm CT: Spain vs. Paraguay
While Spain have not always been on top of their game, this looks on paper like the biggest walkover of the bunch, and if Spain can play at top level, there's no way they don't win this game going away. It doesn't hurt that Spain have only conceded two goals at the tournament and Paraguay have not had the easiest time scoring. Spain will make their first ever semifinal* and, if nothing else, will be sure to deny CONMEBOL a clean sweep of the semis.
Prediction: Spain 2, Paraguay 0
*Spain finished fourth place in 1950, but there were no knockout stages that year; the four group stage winners played a round robin for the title, with Uruguay winning the title on points following their defeat of heavily-favored Brazil on the last match day.
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