Given the recent history of Manchester City, a guaranteed top-ten finish with three games to go - to say nothing of a derby double over United - would have endeared any manager to the City faithful. But Sven-Goran Eriksson also brought an eye for talent and a stylistic flair not seen at City for some time, winning him legions of fans - most crucially club owner Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin declared his admiration for Sven in an interview with the club's official podcast in late October, saying City were "lucky" to have him as manager, and in another interview in mid-February told of his affinity for Eriksson's coaching style. There were, at the time, virtually no hints of the soap opera to come - in which rumors poured out of Eastlands that Sven was going to be asked to resign at season's end, and that he would likely be fired outright if he didn't.
To be sure, City limped down the stretch after spending much of the year in the European places. And Sven's biggest-money buy of the summer, Rolando Bianchi, was back in Italy within six months. But the majority of Sven's buys did catch on, and the squad was bitten by the injury bug a few times, most critically losing defensive superstar Micah Richards for much of the season's second half. Above all, it was a five-place improvement over City's 14th-place finish in 2006-07, and those Blues scored an embarrassing 29 goals all season, to this year's 44 - still not a lot in 37 games so far, but a marked improvement. City will also finish with more wins than losses this year no matter what happens in match #38 against Boro this Sunday at the Riverside, and with 15 wins so far they've already won as many contests this year as in any since returning to the top flight in 2002-03, and a win against Boro would be the most. By all normal City standards, it's been a pretty successful year, and one that lived up to Thaksin Shinawatra's stated preseason goal of a top ten finish.
But despite living up to that goal, the rumors have been persistent that Eriksson is on the way out. The manager himself has mostly refused to address the rumors directly, but as he repeatedly thanks the fans for the support they have shown him, he sounds like a man satisfied that his days are numbered but not entirely sure why. In his interview on the most recent club podcast, Sven sounded weary, tired of addressing the rumors but unable to deny them. His agent has stated that Sven does not plan to resign but at the same time that he does not expect Sven to be with the club next season; the players have united behind Sven, to the extent of apparently planning to boycott a preseason Thailand tour (which Sven reportedly talked them out of doing), but it's not clear if this is having any effect. One thing is for sure - there's only one man whose opinion counts, and he certainly seems to have his mind made up.
The question is: why?
1. City's sliding finish - a 5-4-8 record since the New Year (after a 10-6-4 fall) - led Shinawatra to believe that Sven couldn't effectively manage a team for a full season.
If he really believes this, he should just sell the team right now, because it suggests to me that he knows nothing about football. True, City were maddeningly inconsistent in 2008 - they beat Man U (at Old Trafford!), Spurs and Pompey, but they lost a heartbreaker-cum-choke job to Fulham in the final home game, lost to then-rivals Everton twice in the span of six weeks, lost 3-1 and 2-0 to relegation strugglers Birmingham and Reading, and slogged through frustrating draws with Wigan, Bolton, West Ham, and Derby, only the worst team in Premiership history. But while football is a results-oriented business, you have to consider that Micah Richards missed the last two months, and furthermore that several regulars in the City side have been playing their first season in the Premiership, possibly the toughest league in the world. Other teams may have made adjustments to players like Elano, Geovanni and Martin Petrov; some of them may have tired out a bit over the rough schedule in a way they might not do in future years with a season or more under their belt.
Try looking at it this way - suppose City started 5-4-8, then finished with a 10-6-4 run down the stretch. Eriksson would be lauded for having gotten the team to play together effectively, and it's highly unlikely that there'd be any calls for his head from the top. The inability to build momentum was a problem, but there are any number of possible reasons for it, many of which have nothing to do with Sven.
2. Shinawatra found a bigger manager on offer.
Who else is out there? Big Phil Scolari is the only name I've heard seriously mentioned who seems like a theoretical "upgrade," except that Scolari has said in the past that he'd never want to live in England, and he doesn't have the European club experience that Sven does. Mourinho isn't coming to City, I don't care how much money you throw at him, and furthermore Chelsea's Champions League breakthrough under Grant proves that Mourinho isn't the King Midas everyone thought anyway.
3. Shinawatra feels jealous of the loyalty to Sven exhibited by the fans.
This would just be ridiculous and beyond petty, so I hope it's not true. But in that same mid-February interview, Thaksin said "I want [the fans] to love me." And they may, but you know who they love more right now? Sven-Goran Eriksson. You fire Sven and you are absolutely King Asshole. But if anything, it's possible that the fan outcry has only hardened Thaksin's resolve - sure, he's going to be unpopular at first if he fires Sven, but ultimately, he's the one with the money. And if his next coach does take City to silverware, Thaksin's going to be able to take a lot of the credit (although the coach is going to get a lot of it too). And then the fans definitely will love him. But that's quite a calculated risk, and again, being jealous of Sven would just be childish.
Are there any other possibilities? I just don't get it. Everyone wants Sven to stay. He's under contract. There's only one game left; after that, it's in Thaksin's hands. If he cares about this team and not his own ego, at all, he'll make the right choice. But I think we're all pretty afraid he just doesn't have that in him.
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