World Cup Preview

I thought about doing an entire preview in this section - by which I mean predicting the outcome of not just every group (as I really already did) but every single game - and then I realized that there was (a) no way I'd be right and (b) no way I wanted to spend all that time for something that was never going to be right. So instead, here are a few random predictions slash total guesses:

Winner: Brazil. I'm pretty tired of Brazil at this point, as they've appeared in every final since I was old enough to follow the WC and won two of them, but who else do you put here? Tommy Smyth appeared on Pardon the Interruption today and said he thought Brazil could be beaten because they don't have enough defense. And sure, Brazil doesn't have the world's greatest defense, but aside from 1994, when have they ever? Sure didn't seem to stop them in 2002, did it? The one thing that might concern me is that their group looks pretty easy, with neophytes Australia and a Japanese team in disarray, and they won't be tested enough. But that won't really stop them, will it? On the other hand, they could potentially face Italy or the Czechs in the first knockout stage, both of which teams could pose real problems for them. So we'll see.

Runners-up: Assume the Czechs are healthy enough to win Group E. They could potentially have only Croatia and France standing between themselves and a semifinal berth. On the other hand, once they get there it could mean a date with Argentina or the Dutch, both teams that are good enough to beat the Czechs. And the injury woes have to worry you a bit. We did see what a big-time goalie can do for even a sometimes spotty offensive team in 2002, though - Oliver Kahn's hands (and one of Torsten Frings') pretty much singlehandedly took Germany to the finals - and Peter Cech is about as good as anyone showing up.

The big early crash-out: There's always at least one. Argentina and France, along with Portugal, fit the bill in 2002. I'm not sure there will be as many this year, but one of Argentina and Holland could find themselves in that spot this year, as Ivory Coast can be scary and Serbia have a strong defense. I don't see any other obvious victims unless Ghana gets hot and pushes out one of the highly-ranked Group E sides. At a guess... I still think there's a chance Italy could find themselves surprised. They're notorious for being slow starters in the tournament and if Ghana can stun them, or even just draw, in the opener, suddenly the next two games - against top six ranked teams - become all but must-wins.

Shock of the tournament: Maybe it's foolish optimism, but I still think the US can come out of Group E (more likely at Italy's expense than the Czechs), which seems like it would be a shock to most people. Paraguay over England in the Group B opener would be pretty surprising. Iran could come out of Group D in second if Portugal matches their historical underachievement. Togo or Angola winning would be big, especially if either shocks their former colonial oppressors - gotta love the fate that drew them in the right groups, just like Senegal pulling (and shocking) France in '02. I'd like to see the Angola/Portugal upset myself, even if Angola is probably the weakest team in the field.

Games I Most Want to See

1. USA vs. Czech Republic
2. USA vs. Italy
3. USA vs. Ghana
4. England vs. Sweden
5. Argentina vs. Netherlands
6. England vs. Paraguay
7. Italy vs. Czech Republic
8. Netherlands vs. Ivory Coast
9. France vs. Switzerland
10. Spain vs. Ukraine

Game I Least Want to See

Mexico vs. Iran. I think they're showing a Nebraska-Notre Dame football game on ESPN Classic at the same time. Can I just root for the stadium to spontaneously implode mid-game?