What a day, huh?
Chile 1-0 Honduras
I already covered this in the live blog, so I won't add much except to say that with the other Group H result, Chile's three points go a long way toward their advancement.
Switzerland 1-0 Spain
Enormous stunner, of course. I didn't see it live, but I did go back and watch the replay to see if I could get a sense for what happened, and what it comes down to is this: Switzerland set up for a draw from the start. Even in the first few minutes they were playing with eight men behind the ball. They knew they couldn't hang with Spain if the game were wide open, so they didn't even try. In many ways I was reminded of the US upset of England in 1950 - Spain dominated possession (74%), had a ton of shots (25, though only 5 on goal), and spent much more time in the attacking third... but they just could not put a shot in. Swiss keeper Diego Benaglio deserves a lot of credit for this, although so does the crossbar, which helped deny a Xabi Alonso bullet in the 70th minute. Meanwhile, a long kick from Benaglio started the play which led to Switzerland's goal, a bit of a messy affair that came completely against the run of play. Spain tried to push, but in the last few minutes the Swiss put all ten men behind the ball and the Spanish just couldn't break through.
So what does this do to the group? We'll address that, along with the other groups after one set of games, in a follow-up post.
Uruguay 3-0 South Africa
Whatever hope was generated by South Africa drawing Mexico in the first game was pretty well extinguished by the foot of Diego Forlan. I listened to this game on the radio and Uruguay seemed to be the better team rather easily; while the South Africans had a significant possession edge, this was mostly in midfield; Uruguay had 19 shots, six on goal, to South Africa's 11 shots, of which three were on goal.
The critical moment of the game, of course, came in the 76th minute, when Uruguay's Luis Suarez broke for goal. South African keeper Itumeleng Khune came out to challenge the ball, but ended up tripping Suarez - or at least, he ended up making contact with Suarez and Suarez went to ground. The referee called a penalty, which was reasonable, and then showed Khune a red card, which was probably extreme. Forlan converted the penalty, and at 2-0 and South Africa down to ten men the game was effectively over. So, for that matter, is South Africa's World Cup.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Six - Honduras/Chile Live Blog!
FULL TIME: That's it for now. Will I try this again? Maybe for one or both of the US games, but probably not for any more of the neutral games unless it's a particularly scintillating matchup. We'll see, I guess.
FULL TIME: Chile have won it 1-0. Well deserved, certainly, but Honduras were extremely poor and Chile should have scored more goals. Fortunately for them, the most likely situation in which GD will matter for them would be up against Switzerland, and the Swiss are not exactly known for their high-powered offense.
94': Gonzalez pushes the ball to goal again, and the whistle blows as Valladares collects it.
93': Honduras take a quick corner and nothing comes of it. Chile break and have 4-on-3 for a minute before Gonzalez curls it over the bar.
92': Just like that, it's finally given: three minutes. Meaning Honduras has one more.
92': Was it ever announced how much added time there was?
91': Gonzalez fires wide left. Honduras might want to try getting the ball at some point.
91': Harkes notes that we can't totally judge Chile based on this because "it is against Honduras." Yeah, pretty much.
90': Welcome takes a shot from the top of the box but it's not especially close. Honduras have about three minutes to somehow find an equalizer.
89': Fernandez is unmarked at the top of the box but the ball runs off his foot.
88': Sanchez goes down under contact, looks up at the ref, winces and grabs himself, then looks up again to make sure there was a whistle. This is why people hate soccer, you guys. Knock it off.
87': Valdivia finally comes off for a sub.
86': Healey and Harkes invoke New Zealand's late goal to draw Slovakia. Honduras, inspired by this pep talk, get the ball into the box but Bravo collects easily.
84': A Honduran fan in the crowd clasps her hands together and rocks back and forth. Sorry, lady; Chile's fans already prayed and you can't both win.
83': A header from Medel is just wide, but he's offsides anyway. Chile have hardly dropped back, possibly because Honduras have never shown a reason to worry about their attack.
81': Chile have more than 30 touches in the Honduran box and Honduras have one in the Chilean box, according to Healey. Sounds about right. Chile actually make a substitution.
80': Anyway, that would be 48 years between World Cup wins for Chile, which would pass the old record of 44 years by the United States. Sanchez goes for goal but his shot from 20+ yards goes well wide.
79': I don't think Honduras has spent more than a few minutes even in the Chilean half since the break.
78': Honduras put in Walter Martinez as their final sub. ESPN lists him at 5'5".
77': A free kick bounces around but Valladares is able to collect.
75': Chile almost score again, but Valladares makes a save, Sanchez appears to handle the rebound, and then Valdivia puts it in but is offsides.
75': Chile hasn't won a World Cup game since 1962, the year they hosted.
73': Usually this stuff evens up a bit, but with less than 20 minutes to play, Chile still has two-thirds of the possession. Chile has another couple chances, but a shot is blocked and Isla's header goes well wide.
72': Valdivia limps off but doesn't seem to be getting substituted just yet. Honduras attempt to build on the man advantage but a header into the box is collected by Bravo. Still don't think Honduras have touched the ball in the Chilean box.
71': I still don't think Honduras touched that one in the box. The ball deflects off Ponce's elbow, but no handball call, which I think is right. Jorge Valdivia picks up a random cramp and we get a break in the action.
70': After a nice move, Palacios wins a corner.
69': Chile almost score again but for a last-second tackle by Hendry Thomas. Honduras almost touch it in the Chilean box 30 seconds later, but it's cleared.
68': Healey and Harkes talk about the US-Slovenia game, and how Slovenia's win over Algeria makes the US feel they have to beat Slovenia. Sure, but they really should have felt that way already. You don't want to go into a game like that thinking a draw is cool. In a related story, I had a dream last night that Slovenia won all three games in the group. Let's hope it was something I ate.
67': Honduras control the ball for about 20 seconds and then lose it out of bounds. I could probably just copy and paste this.
65': English football-ism: "asking questions." As in, "Chile have been asking most of the questions today." The main question being "Man, how much does Honduras suck?"
64': Valladares makes an incredible save on a header from about six feet. Ponce is kicking himself that he couldn't bang that in.
63': Welcome flops goofily by stumbling backwards over a Chilean but gets the foul call. Does this count as getting into the Chilean box? Honduras gets right to the edge but it's an offsides call.
62': Taking bets on the next time Honduras actually gets the ball into the Chilean box. Meanwhile, Sanchez makes a run and then rolls it just wide left of the Honduran goal.
61': Not only is Chile much more threatening, their attacks are a lot prettier.
60': Pavon is substituted, with Georgie Welcome coming on. That's a fun name.
58': Healey says of a Chilean player, "It's a real mystery why he hasn't reproduced his South American form in Europe." I don't even know who he's talking about, but I promise you it is not that much of a mystery.
57': Sanchez gets stepped on in the box, but the ref misses it. It was probably unintentional anyway.
56': Nothing doing on the header, but Chile regroup yet again.
55': Sanchez abuses Espinoza and then gets taken down, earning a free kick from the right side, maybe 24 yards out.
54': Healey references Honduras' MLS connections yet again. Given how bad they've looked, I probably wouldn't keep talking about that.
53': Valladares must have an awful goal kick, as Figueroa takes another.
52': Another good chance from Chile, though it's eventually called for offsides as it falls to the last man.
50': Chile take the corner shot but can't fire the ball through a scrum. Pavon ends up on the ground in the box, apparently hurting himself on the clearance. Chile are forced to start over from back in their end.
48': Beausejour almost has an open shot at goal, but Figueroa just gets in the way with a challenge that sends Beausejour sprawling. There's going to be a penalty at some point if this keeps up. Sanchez then gets the ball taken away in the box but wins a corner for Chile.
47': Honduras seem to want a penalty, but Medel does get a touch on the ball. Very risky challenge but it paid off, as another Honduran attack is stifled.
46': Honduras, like New Zealand, are making their second appearance and first since 1982. Right now they look a lot worse than New Zealand.
HALF: I make it back from the shower with a couple minutes to spare, as the Chilean team comes back out to the field. Are soccer halftimes short or do I just spend that much time in the shower? On second thought, don't answer that.
HALF: Certainly a deserved 1-0 lead for Chile. For CONCACAF's sake, I'd love to see Honduras do anything in the second half, as the team that showed up in the first half is going out of this tournament without a point.
45': Not a bad kick from Nunez; Bravo has to tip it over. After the ensuing corner is deflected away, the first half whistle blows. Figures that it would happen right as Honduras was getting anything going.
45': A goal kick is taken by someone other than a goalie, as Figueroa boots it out for Honduras. Once again, I don't think I've ever seen that happen before. Honduras end up with a free kick 30ish yards out.
43': A graphic shows us that Chile has a 63-37 possession edge, and Healey confirms that Honduras have not touched the ball in the Chilean box yet. Chile get into Honduras' box again, and Honduras gets lucky with an inadvertent handball that is not called.
42': Honduras yet again gets something going, but can't get it into the box as a pass in Pavon's direction falls short and Chile goes back the other way. Valdivia springs Beausejour but Honduras clear his cross for a throw-in.
40': Beausejour's father is Haitian, and was in Haiti for the earthquake. Lots of earthquakes in that family.
39': Nunez takes a shot from outside the box, but it's not particularly close. Honduras have yet to really get a good chance.
38': A deep ball, but the Chilean forward is just a little offsides.
37': Chile nearly score another. Honduras' defense is starting to break down a bit.
34': GOAL! The ball is sent across the face of goal, and Beausejour is credited with it although the replay makes it look like Mendoza, the Honduran defender, had a lot to do with the ball going in. Still, Chile deserve the lead here.
33': Wilson Palacios is booked despite not seeming to do anything. The ref is not having the greatest of games, it must be said.
32': Chile break, then are stopped; Honduras break in response and are stopped; Chile break again. Somewhat exciting even if none of the breaks do so much as get into the area.
30': The South African fans have organized some sort of vuvuzela-playing conga line.
29': Ramon Nunez of Honduras dives horribly and gets the foul call. He sort of looks like a young Sammy Sosa.
27': Chile kick the ball out of bounds while Pavon rolls around on the ground. After throwing it in, Honduras look for a second like they aren't just going to give it back, which I don't think I've ever seen. The Chilean defender blocks the ball and then Honduras push it to Chile.
25': US defender Jonathan Bornstein is apparently a huge fan favorite in Honduras because he scored the goal against Costa Rica that allowed Honduras to qualify for the World Cup ahead of the Costa Ricans. Meanwhile, Vidal blasts a header over the goal off a corner.
23': Adrian Healey says the game has "the aroma of goals about it" despite being so far goalless. I guess?
22': Claudio Bravo grabs the corner easily and then sets up an attack with a long punt. Valdivia eventually gets a shot off that deflects out for a Chilean corner. Sanchez falls down while attempt to shoot from 20 yards and the ball goes out for a goal kick.
20': Honduras again manage to organize a counterattack and earn a corner after a long shot goes off the back of a Chilean defender.
19': Chile's Fernandez gets booked for a slightly rash challenge.
18': ...and nothing doing. It's a bit high/long. Honduras get on the break and then Pavon finds himself wide open about 25 yards from goal, but he hits it weakly wide left.
17': Chile win a corner...
16': Good tackle by Mendoza of Honduras to take the ball away from Beausejour near the touchline.
15': Honduras get the ball through the box for the first time, but it's not threatening.
14': Adrian Healey informs us that there is an iPhone app that makes the vuvuzela sound, just in case you're trying to figure out a way to be a complete asshole to everyone you know.
13': Valdivia overhits a slotted pass into the area and Beausejour can't catch up with it. Again, we've seen this a lot, although I'm not sure you can blame the ball when the pass is along the ground.
12': Honduras start to come forward, then lose the ball after kicking it around the midfield. They look pretty bad so far.
11': Another long ball by Chile goes well past its intended target. Honduras gives it back to them rather quickly.
10': Fact of the day: Chile calls their coach "The Madman."
9': A couple of nice backheel passes between the Chileans, but the ball goes out off Honduras. Seconds later, Vidal fires a shot from distance that Valladares juggles, but no other Chilean was nearby.
6': Chile gets a free kick from the right side of the field about ten yards out. They're dominating the game early; Honduras hasn't had the ball for more than about 15 seconds at a time. The kick fails, but Chile get a shot on goal out of it, albeit a weak one.
4': Chile gets its first corner but nothing much comes of it. Honduras attempts to break, but Carlos Carmona trips the Honduran and gets a yellow card for his trouble.
3': Fernandez comes close to putting the free kick in; the crowd cheers as it looks for a second like it goes in.
2': Valdivia is challenged by Wilson Palacios and goes down clutching his face after being nudged in the back. Oh good.
1': Chile starts with a long ball that, of course, overruns everyone and goes out for a Honduran goal kick. If the Jabulani is really having an effect, this is it, for me.
6:30 am: The captains greet each other warmly. ESPN shows us the formations; Chile appears to be in a 4-3-3, while Honduras looks to be in something like a 4-2-3-1.
6:28 am: Let's do this.
FULL TIME: Chile have won it 1-0. Well deserved, certainly, but Honduras were extremely poor and Chile should have scored more goals. Fortunately for them, the most likely situation in which GD will matter for them would be up against Switzerland, and the Swiss are not exactly known for their high-powered offense.
94': Gonzalez pushes the ball to goal again, and the whistle blows as Valladares collects it.
93': Honduras take a quick corner and nothing comes of it. Chile break and have 4-on-3 for a minute before Gonzalez curls it over the bar.
92': Just like that, it's finally given: three minutes. Meaning Honduras has one more.
92': Was it ever announced how much added time there was?
91': Gonzalez fires wide left. Honduras might want to try getting the ball at some point.
91': Harkes notes that we can't totally judge Chile based on this because "it is against Honduras." Yeah, pretty much.
90': Welcome takes a shot from the top of the box but it's not especially close. Honduras have about three minutes to somehow find an equalizer.
89': Fernandez is unmarked at the top of the box but the ball runs off his foot.
88': Sanchez goes down under contact, looks up at the ref, winces and grabs himself, then looks up again to make sure there was a whistle. This is why people hate soccer, you guys. Knock it off.
87': Valdivia finally comes off for a sub.
86': Healey and Harkes invoke New Zealand's late goal to draw Slovakia. Honduras, inspired by this pep talk, get the ball into the box but Bravo collects easily.
84': A Honduran fan in the crowd clasps her hands together and rocks back and forth. Sorry, lady; Chile's fans already prayed and you can't both win.
83': A header from Medel is just wide, but he's offsides anyway. Chile have hardly dropped back, possibly because Honduras have never shown a reason to worry about their attack.
81': Chile have more than 30 touches in the Honduran box and Honduras have one in the Chilean box, according to Healey. Sounds about right. Chile actually make a substitution.
80': Anyway, that would be 48 years between World Cup wins for Chile, which would pass the old record of 44 years by the United States. Sanchez goes for goal but his shot from 20+ yards goes well wide.
79': I don't think Honduras has spent more than a few minutes even in the Chilean half since the break.
78': Honduras put in Walter Martinez as their final sub. ESPN lists him at 5'5".
77': A free kick bounces around but Valladares is able to collect.
75': Chile almost score again, but Valladares makes a save, Sanchez appears to handle the rebound, and then Valdivia puts it in but is offsides.
75': Chile hasn't won a World Cup game since 1962, the year they hosted.
73': Usually this stuff evens up a bit, but with less than 20 minutes to play, Chile still has two-thirds of the possession. Chile has another couple chances, but a shot is blocked and Isla's header goes well wide.
72': Valdivia limps off but doesn't seem to be getting substituted just yet. Honduras attempt to build on the man advantage but a header into the box is collected by Bravo. Still don't think Honduras have touched the ball in the Chilean box.
71': I still don't think Honduras touched that one in the box. The ball deflects off Ponce's elbow, but no handball call, which I think is right. Jorge Valdivia picks up a random cramp and we get a break in the action.
70': After a nice move, Palacios wins a corner.
69': Chile almost score again but for a last-second tackle by Hendry Thomas. Honduras almost touch it in the Chilean box 30 seconds later, but it's cleared.
68': Healey and Harkes talk about the US-Slovenia game, and how Slovenia's win over Algeria makes the US feel they have to beat Slovenia. Sure, but they really should have felt that way already. You don't want to go into a game like that thinking a draw is cool. In a related story, I had a dream last night that Slovenia won all three games in the group. Let's hope it was something I ate.
67': Honduras control the ball for about 20 seconds and then lose it out of bounds. I could probably just copy and paste this.
65': English football-ism: "asking questions." As in, "Chile have been asking most of the questions today." The main question being "Man, how much does Honduras suck?"
64': Valladares makes an incredible save on a header from about six feet. Ponce is kicking himself that he couldn't bang that in.
63': Welcome flops goofily by stumbling backwards over a Chilean but gets the foul call. Does this count as getting into the Chilean box? Honduras gets right to the edge but it's an offsides call.
62': Taking bets on the next time Honduras actually gets the ball into the Chilean box. Meanwhile, Sanchez makes a run and then rolls it just wide left of the Honduran goal.
61': Not only is Chile much more threatening, their attacks are a lot prettier.
60': Pavon is substituted, with Georgie Welcome coming on. That's a fun name.
58': Healey says of a Chilean player, "It's a real mystery why he hasn't reproduced his South American form in Europe." I don't even know who he's talking about, but I promise you it is not that much of a mystery.
57': Sanchez gets stepped on in the box, but the ref misses it. It was probably unintentional anyway.
56': Nothing doing on the header, but Chile regroup yet again.
55': Sanchez abuses Espinoza and then gets taken down, earning a free kick from the right side, maybe 24 yards out.
54': Healey references Honduras' MLS connections yet again. Given how bad they've looked, I probably wouldn't keep talking about that.
53': Valladares must have an awful goal kick, as Figueroa takes another.
52': Another good chance from Chile, though it's eventually called for offsides as it falls to the last man.
50': Chile take the corner shot but can't fire the ball through a scrum. Pavon ends up on the ground in the box, apparently hurting himself on the clearance. Chile are forced to start over from back in their end.
48': Beausejour almost has an open shot at goal, but Figueroa just gets in the way with a challenge that sends Beausejour sprawling. There's going to be a penalty at some point if this keeps up. Sanchez then gets the ball taken away in the box but wins a corner for Chile.
47': Honduras seem to want a penalty, but Medel does get a touch on the ball. Very risky challenge but it paid off, as another Honduran attack is stifled.
46': Honduras, like New Zealand, are making their second appearance and first since 1982. Right now they look a lot worse than New Zealand.
HALF: I make it back from the shower with a couple minutes to spare, as the Chilean team comes back out to the field. Are soccer halftimes short or do I just spend that much time in the shower? On second thought, don't answer that.
HALF: Certainly a deserved 1-0 lead for Chile. For CONCACAF's sake, I'd love to see Honduras do anything in the second half, as the team that showed up in the first half is going out of this tournament without a point.
45': Not a bad kick from Nunez; Bravo has to tip it over. After the ensuing corner is deflected away, the first half whistle blows. Figures that it would happen right as Honduras was getting anything going.
45': A goal kick is taken by someone other than a goalie, as Figueroa boots it out for Honduras. Once again, I don't think I've ever seen that happen before. Honduras end up with a free kick 30ish yards out.
43': A graphic shows us that Chile has a 63-37 possession edge, and Healey confirms that Honduras have not touched the ball in the Chilean box yet. Chile get into Honduras' box again, and Honduras gets lucky with an inadvertent handball that is not called.
42': Honduras yet again gets something going, but can't get it into the box as a pass in Pavon's direction falls short and Chile goes back the other way. Valdivia springs Beausejour but Honduras clear his cross for a throw-in.
40': Beausejour's father is Haitian, and was in Haiti for the earthquake. Lots of earthquakes in that family.
39': Nunez takes a shot from outside the box, but it's not particularly close. Honduras have yet to really get a good chance.
38': A deep ball, but the Chilean forward is just a little offsides.
37': Chile nearly score another. Honduras' defense is starting to break down a bit.
34': GOAL! The ball is sent across the face of goal, and Beausejour is credited with it although the replay makes it look like Mendoza, the Honduran defender, had a lot to do with the ball going in. Still, Chile deserve the lead here.
33': Wilson Palacios is booked despite not seeming to do anything. The ref is not having the greatest of games, it must be said.
32': Chile break, then are stopped; Honduras break in response and are stopped; Chile break again. Somewhat exciting even if none of the breaks do so much as get into the area.
30': The South African fans have organized some sort of vuvuzela-playing conga line.
29': Ramon Nunez of Honduras dives horribly and gets the foul call. He sort of looks like a young Sammy Sosa.
27': Chile kick the ball out of bounds while Pavon rolls around on the ground. After throwing it in, Honduras look for a second like they aren't just going to give it back, which I don't think I've ever seen. The Chilean defender blocks the ball and then Honduras push it to Chile.
25': US defender Jonathan Bornstein is apparently a huge fan favorite in Honduras because he scored the goal against Costa Rica that allowed Honduras to qualify for the World Cup ahead of the Costa Ricans. Meanwhile, Vidal blasts a header over the goal off a corner.
23': Adrian Healey says the game has "the aroma of goals about it" despite being so far goalless. I guess?
22': Claudio Bravo grabs the corner easily and then sets up an attack with a long punt. Valdivia eventually gets a shot off that deflects out for a Chilean corner. Sanchez falls down while attempt to shoot from 20 yards and the ball goes out for a goal kick.
20': Honduras again manage to organize a counterattack and earn a corner after a long shot goes off the back of a Chilean defender.
19': Chile's Fernandez gets booked for a slightly rash challenge.
18': ...and nothing doing. It's a bit high/long. Honduras get on the break and then Pavon finds himself wide open about 25 yards from goal, but he hits it weakly wide left.
17': Chile win a corner...
16': Good tackle by Mendoza of Honduras to take the ball away from Beausejour near the touchline.
15': Honduras get the ball through the box for the first time, but it's not threatening.
14': Adrian Healey informs us that there is an iPhone app that makes the vuvuzela sound, just in case you're trying to figure out a way to be a complete asshole to everyone you know.
13': Valdivia overhits a slotted pass into the area and Beausejour can't catch up with it. Again, we've seen this a lot, although I'm not sure you can blame the ball when the pass is along the ground.
12': Honduras start to come forward, then lose the ball after kicking it around the midfield. They look pretty bad so far.
11': Another long ball by Chile goes well past its intended target. Honduras gives it back to them rather quickly.
10': Fact of the day: Chile calls their coach "The Madman."
9': A couple of nice backheel passes between the Chileans, but the ball goes out off Honduras. Seconds later, Vidal fires a shot from distance that Valladares juggles, but no other Chilean was nearby.
6': Chile gets a free kick from the right side of the field about ten yards out. They're dominating the game early; Honduras hasn't had the ball for more than about 15 seconds at a time. The kick fails, but Chile get a shot on goal out of it, albeit a weak one.
4': Chile gets its first corner but nothing much comes of it. Honduras attempts to break, but Carlos Carmona trips the Honduran and gets a yellow card for his trouble.
3': Fernandez comes close to putting the free kick in; the crowd cheers as it looks for a second like it goes in.
2': Valdivia is challenged by Wilson Palacios and goes down clutching his face after being nudged in the back. Oh good.
1': Chile starts with a long ball that, of course, overruns everyone and goes out for a Honduran goal kick. If the Jabulani is really having an effect, this is it, for me.
6:30 am: The captains greet each other warmly. ESPN shows us the formations; Chile appears to be in a 4-3-3, while Honduras looks to be in something like a 4-2-3-1.
6:28 am: Let's do this.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Five
New Zealand 1-1 Slovakia
If this game isn't a testimony to playing until the whistle sounds, I don't know what is. (I originally wrote "playing all 90 minutes," but of course New Zealand's equalizer came in stoppage time.) The Kiwis looked the better side for the first 10 or 15 minutes, but after that Slovakia mostly dominated the game - albeit the kind of domination that results in two total shots on goal and getting your only score via a header from a player who was almost certainly offsides. (I watched this game live and while it was not the snoozefest of Algeria-Slovenia, it was rarely very exciting.) For whatever reason, be it Slovakia feeling they had the game won or the Kiwis reaching for a second gear, New Zealand came to life in the final few minutes, and they snatched an equalizer mere seconds from time, courtesy of a header from embarrassingly-unmarked 21-year-old defender Winston Reid, one of only seven All Whites who play their club football in Europe.
An exciting moment for New Zealand, surely - it was their first-ever point in a World Cup and just their third goal scored. The question now becomes what we make of this group, which is technically a four-way draw at the moment. Italy and Paraguay seem like the class of it and I'd be surprised if they don't advance; while New Zealand probably deserved their draw here I must say they were pretty poor for large stretches of the game and I'd be stunned if Italy don't thump them. While a win would have given Slovakia a decent chance to advance, they now need to actually beat either Italy or Paraguay and I'm just not sure they're up to it based on what I saw, although it can of course be difficult to judge a team fully on its opening game.
Portugal 0-0 Ivory Coast
Speaking of which. Yeesh. I didn't see this one live, though I listened to most of the second half on ESPN Radio, but it doesn't appear there was much to see; ESPN's Gamecast commentator noted darkly after the final whistle, "That is 90 minutes of my life I can't get back." Portugal, the third-ranked team in the world, managed just a single shot on goal; perhaps the most noteworthy part of the entire game was a hilarious moment when Cristiano Ronaldo, about to be fouled by a sliding Guy Demel, flung himself up and over Demel's legs rather than making contact with him and was subsequently booked for diving on what would otherwise have absolutely been a legitimate foul on Demel. Guess you just can't teach an old dog new tricks. The most exciting moment of the game was surely the entrance of Didier Drogba, although he didn't manage to do much of anything until finding himself directly in front of goal in the 91st minute, only to cross the ball to absolutely no one.
The real question is what we know about either team following this match. It may have been a dreary, goalless affair, but that could just have been fear. Think about it this way: both sides, while surely confident in public, probably expect that they will not beat Brazil, or at least consider a loss to Brazil a relatively likely outcome. Assuming a win over North Korea and a loss to Brazil, that's three points each... and assuming that that's the most likely outcome for both, this game was absolutely critical not to lose. A loss here would have required a win over Brazil, most likely. Instead, the advancing team will probably come down to who can beat North Korea by more and/or lose to Brazil by less. I'm sure either side would have taken a win, but it's pretty clear that both were far more comfortable playing conservatively, not to lose.
Brazil 2-1 North Korea
A stunning result in more ways than one. First of all, Brazil's two goals were among the nicest you'll see, started by Maicon's in the 55th minute, a crazy shot fired in from such an angle that (a) it almost looks like the ball was CGIed into the video and (b) a debate ensued over whether or not Maicon was actually attempting a cross. (I'll say this: it would have been one of the least effective crosses of all-time, so he may as well say he was shooting for it.) Brazil also got off fully 26 shots, including ten on goal - the eight saves credited to North Korean keeper Ri Myong-Guk were two more than all five other goalies today combined - yet could only manage a narrow win in a game that was scoreless for nearly an hour. The Koreans pulled back a goal in the 89th which, astonishingly, could yet prove crucial to their own advancement to the second round. Perhaps most bizarrely, this became the first game of the tournament in which both teams scored not to end in a 1-1 draw.
Group G is suddenly very weird. North Korea sits at the bottom, and their goal differential is -1, but they also have a goal to their credit, which the Portuguese and Ivorians do not. Here is one not especially far-fetched scenario, particularly if Portugal and Ivory Coast also struggle to break down the North Korean defense:
Brazil def. North Korea 2-1
Portugal t. Ivory Coast 0-0
Portugal t. North Korea 1-1
Brazil def. Ivory Coast 3-1
North Korea def. Ivory Coast 1-0
Brazil def. Portugal 2-1
Obviously I just made up the second two sets of results, but based on today's games, North Korea scraping out a low-scoring win and tie in their next two games is not the most unrealistic thing in the world, right? And four points would be enough to get them through assuming Brazil will in fact take all nine. I will say this - the Brazil-Portugal game on June 25 gets a lot more interesting if Portugal need a win to ensure the North Koreans can't pass them.
Tomorrow! Honduras-Chile, possibly along with my first live blog (which I'm sure no one will follow live and so which I may just post all at once when the game is over, if I even do it); Spain-Switzerland; and a huge game for the hosts as they kick off the second set of matches with a tilt against Uruguay. A win for South Africa tomorrow puts them on the brink of advancing.
If this game isn't a testimony to playing until the whistle sounds, I don't know what is. (I originally wrote "playing all 90 minutes," but of course New Zealand's equalizer came in stoppage time.) The Kiwis looked the better side for the first 10 or 15 minutes, but after that Slovakia mostly dominated the game - albeit the kind of domination that results in two total shots on goal and getting your only score via a header from a player who was almost certainly offsides. (I watched this game live and while it was not the snoozefest of Algeria-Slovenia, it was rarely very exciting.) For whatever reason, be it Slovakia feeling they had the game won or the Kiwis reaching for a second gear, New Zealand came to life in the final few minutes, and they snatched an equalizer mere seconds from time, courtesy of a header from embarrassingly-unmarked 21-year-old defender Winston Reid, one of only seven All Whites who play their club football in Europe.
An exciting moment for New Zealand, surely - it was their first-ever point in a World Cup and just their third goal scored. The question now becomes what we make of this group, which is technically a four-way draw at the moment. Italy and Paraguay seem like the class of it and I'd be surprised if they don't advance; while New Zealand probably deserved their draw here I must say they were pretty poor for large stretches of the game and I'd be stunned if Italy don't thump them. While a win would have given Slovakia a decent chance to advance, they now need to actually beat either Italy or Paraguay and I'm just not sure they're up to it based on what I saw, although it can of course be difficult to judge a team fully on its opening game.
Portugal 0-0 Ivory Coast
Speaking of which. Yeesh. I didn't see this one live, though I listened to most of the second half on ESPN Radio, but it doesn't appear there was much to see; ESPN's Gamecast commentator noted darkly after the final whistle, "That is 90 minutes of my life I can't get back." Portugal, the third-ranked team in the world, managed just a single shot on goal; perhaps the most noteworthy part of the entire game was a hilarious moment when Cristiano Ronaldo, about to be fouled by a sliding Guy Demel, flung himself up and over Demel's legs rather than making contact with him and was subsequently booked for diving on what would otherwise have absolutely been a legitimate foul on Demel. Guess you just can't teach an old dog new tricks. The most exciting moment of the game was surely the entrance of Didier Drogba, although he didn't manage to do much of anything until finding himself directly in front of goal in the 91st minute, only to cross the ball to absolutely no one.
The real question is what we know about either team following this match. It may have been a dreary, goalless affair, but that could just have been fear. Think about it this way: both sides, while surely confident in public, probably expect that they will not beat Brazil, or at least consider a loss to Brazil a relatively likely outcome. Assuming a win over North Korea and a loss to Brazil, that's three points each... and assuming that that's the most likely outcome for both, this game was absolutely critical not to lose. A loss here would have required a win over Brazil, most likely. Instead, the advancing team will probably come down to who can beat North Korea by more and/or lose to Brazil by less. I'm sure either side would have taken a win, but it's pretty clear that both were far more comfortable playing conservatively, not to lose.
Brazil 2-1 North Korea
A stunning result in more ways than one. First of all, Brazil's two goals were among the nicest you'll see, started by Maicon's in the 55th minute, a crazy shot fired in from such an angle that (a) it almost looks like the ball was CGIed into the video and (b) a debate ensued over whether or not Maicon was actually attempting a cross. (I'll say this: it would have been one of the least effective crosses of all-time, so he may as well say he was shooting for it.) Brazil also got off fully 26 shots, including ten on goal - the eight saves credited to North Korean keeper Ri Myong-Guk were two more than all five other goalies today combined - yet could only manage a narrow win in a game that was scoreless for nearly an hour. The Koreans pulled back a goal in the 89th which, astonishingly, could yet prove crucial to their own advancement to the second round. Perhaps most bizarrely, this became the first game of the tournament in which both teams scored not to end in a 1-1 draw.
Group G is suddenly very weird. North Korea sits at the bottom, and their goal differential is -1, but they also have a goal to their credit, which the Portuguese and Ivorians do not. Here is one not especially far-fetched scenario, particularly if Portugal and Ivory Coast also struggle to break down the North Korean defense:
Brazil def. North Korea 2-1
Portugal t. Ivory Coast 0-0
Portugal t. North Korea 1-1
Brazil def. Ivory Coast 3-1
North Korea def. Ivory Coast 1-0
Brazil def. Portugal 2-1
Obviously I just made up the second two sets of results, but based on today's games, North Korea scraping out a low-scoring win and tie in their next two games is not the most unrealistic thing in the world, right? And four points would be enough to get them through assuming Brazil will in fact take all nine. I will say this - the Brazil-Portugal game on June 25 gets a lot more interesting if Portugal need a win to ensure the North Koreans can't pass them.
Tomorrow! Honduras-Chile, possibly along with my first live blog (which I'm sure no one will follow live and so which I may just post all at once when the game is over, if I even do it); Spain-Switzerland; and a huge game for the hosts as they kick off the second set of matches with a tilt against Uruguay. A win for South Africa tomorrow puts them on the brink of advancing.
Monday, June 14, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day Four (the rest)
I only got to watch the first game live, so let's just talk about the other two games quickly and then cast an eye forward.
Japan 1-0 Cameroon
Probably the shock of the tournament so far, not least because Japan had barely threatened Cameroon's area before scoring and really didn't threaten the entire game - most notably, the Samurai Blue did not record a single corner kick during the ninety minutes. Of course, the Indomitable Lions managed just three, and only two shots on goal despite a 57-43 edge in possession, perhaps explaining their domitability. This makes Group E more than a little interesting; while I still expect the Dutch to progress comfortably, Japan could now potentially squeeze into the knockouts merely by drawing Denmark. Not bad for what looked like one of the three or four weakest squads entering play.
Italy 1-1 Paraguay
Track down Paraguay's goal if you haven't seen it, because it is a thing of beauty - a perfectly located free kick from about 40 yards out that fell right at the edge of the six-yard box, where it was headed neatly into the right corner of the goal so effectively than Gianluigi Buffon didn't even move. Italy's tying goal, by comparison, was a goalkeeping blunder probably no better or worse than Robert Green's or Faouzi Chaouchi's - the Paraguayan keeper, Justo Villar, leapt for a curling corner kick only to see it pass his outstretched arm and land right on the foot of Daniele De Rossi, who easily poked it home. Villar did keep Paraguay in the game with four saves in the match, and even a loss here would probably not have kept Italy out of the knockouts with Slovakia and New Zealand on the schedule, but it has to have been disappointing.
Five games remain in the first set of group matches, with three of them, potentially, liable to be impactful on who progresses:
New Zealand v. Slovakia: I'm watching this because it's Tuesday's early game, but I can't imagine this will have much effect on the outcome of Group F. While the winner, if there is one, can bask in the Slovenia-like early group lead, Slovakia is probably the worst European qualifier and New Zealand might be the weakest team in the entire tournament although I'd love to see them do well.
Ivory Coast v. Portugal: Many howled when Ivory Coast were stuck with Portugal and Brazil in the apparent Group of Death, since they were viewed as Africa's best hope for a Cup winner on home-continent soil. With Didier Drogba's fitness in question, however, it may not matter at this point regardless. I'm still hoping this is going to be a good game, and certainly should Ivory Coast win or draw, second place in the group is open to much more question than it will be if they lose.
Brazil v. North Korea: Brazil has opened up each of the last three World Cups with somewhat unconvincing wins, but it's hard to imagine the North Koreans as anything more than cannon fodder in this group.
Honduras v. Chile: Another case where, as in Group C, the two strongest teams in the group (Spain and Switzerland) play each other in the first game. This enables the winner of Honduras and Chile - again, assuming there is one - to possibly snatch early pole position and be able to stamp a second-round ticket by doing nothing more than tying Switzerland. I also think that this game - featuring two teams with very little to lose - could be among the more entertaining of the first set, though I've been wrong before.
Spain v. Switzerland: Like US/England, if form holds in the other two games for each team, it ultimately may not be all that meaningful. However, should Switzerland lose 2-0 or 3-0 and the Honduras/Chile game produce a winner, the Swiss may begin to sweat.
Japan 1-0 Cameroon
Probably the shock of the tournament so far, not least because Japan had barely threatened Cameroon's area before scoring and really didn't threaten the entire game - most notably, the Samurai Blue did not record a single corner kick during the ninety minutes. Of course, the Indomitable Lions managed just three, and only two shots on goal despite a 57-43 edge in possession, perhaps explaining their domitability. This makes Group E more than a little interesting; while I still expect the Dutch to progress comfortably, Japan could now potentially squeeze into the knockouts merely by drawing Denmark. Not bad for what looked like one of the three or four weakest squads entering play.
Italy 1-1 Paraguay
Track down Paraguay's goal if you haven't seen it, because it is a thing of beauty - a perfectly located free kick from about 40 yards out that fell right at the edge of the six-yard box, where it was headed neatly into the right corner of the goal so effectively than Gianluigi Buffon didn't even move. Italy's tying goal, by comparison, was a goalkeeping blunder probably no better or worse than Robert Green's or Faouzi Chaouchi's - the Paraguayan keeper, Justo Villar, leapt for a curling corner kick only to see it pass his outstretched arm and land right on the foot of Daniele De Rossi, who easily poked it home. Villar did keep Paraguay in the game with four saves in the match, and even a loss here would probably not have kept Italy out of the knockouts with Slovakia and New Zealand on the schedule, but it has to have been disappointing.
Five games remain in the first set of group matches, with three of them, potentially, liable to be impactful on who progresses:
New Zealand v. Slovakia: I'm watching this because it's Tuesday's early game, but I can't imagine this will have much effect on the outcome of Group F. While the winner, if there is one, can bask in the Slovenia-like early group lead, Slovakia is probably the worst European qualifier and New Zealand might be the weakest team in the entire tournament although I'd love to see them do well.
Ivory Coast v. Portugal: Many howled when Ivory Coast were stuck with Portugal and Brazil in the apparent Group of Death, since they were viewed as Africa's best hope for a Cup winner on home-continent soil. With Didier Drogba's fitness in question, however, it may not matter at this point regardless. I'm still hoping this is going to be a good game, and certainly should Ivory Coast win or draw, second place in the group is open to much more question than it will be if they lose.
Brazil v. North Korea: Brazil has opened up each of the last three World Cups with somewhat unconvincing wins, but it's hard to imagine the North Koreans as anything more than cannon fodder in this group.
Honduras v. Chile: Another case where, as in Group C, the two strongest teams in the group (Spain and Switzerland) play each other in the first game. This enables the winner of Honduras and Chile - again, assuming there is one - to possibly snatch early pole position and be able to stamp a second-round ticket by doing nothing more than tying Switzerland. I also think that this game - featuring two teams with very little to lose - could be among the more entertaining of the first set, though I've been wrong before.
Spain v. Switzerland: Like US/England, if form holds in the other two games for each team, it ultimately may not be all that meaningful. However, should Switzerland lose 2-0 or 3-0 and the Honduras/Chile game produce a winner, the Swiss may begin to sweat.
World Cup 2010: Day Four (morning edition)
Netherlands 2-0 Denmark
This game turned out to be a real disappointment. The first half barely kept me awake and the second half was at best a mild improvement. The Dutch are good at passing but if I'm a Netherlands fan I'm starting to worry about another early dismissal in the knockouts. This is the #4 team in the world? I don't doubt they'll emerge from the group with all nine points but they hardly looked like world-beaters. Their defense was fine but I wonder how much of that was Denmark's anemic attack (bizarre fact of the day from Healey and Harkes: Denmark only carry three forwards), and while the offense had a few moments of brilliance they seemed to spend most of the game playing ping-pong. The first goal was a fluky own-goal that really never should have happened; the second was earned (although much more by substitute Eljero Elia, the most dynamic Dutch player on the pitch, than by credited goal scorer Dirk Kuyt, who easily poached the goal after Elia hit the post). All in all I was severely disappointed; even if this game was never going to be the back-and-forth of Ghana-Serbia, at least I hoped the Dutch could run free, but Denmark's packed midfield helped make things boring for everyone. The real question now is who the second team in this group will be; Denmark probably seemed like the favorites coming in, but I'd give Cameroon a very good shot now. Although let's see if they beat Japan in the game that's about to start.
This game turned out to be a real disappointment. The first half barely kept me awake and the second half was at best a mild improvement. The Dutch are good at passing but if I'm a Netherlands fan I'm starting to worry about another early dismissal in the knockouts. This is the #4 team in the world? I don't doubt they'll emerge from the group with all nine points but they hardly looked like world-beaters. Their defense was fine but I wonder how much of that was Denmark's anemic attack (bizarre fact of the day from Healey and Harkes: Denmark only carry three forwards), and while the offense had a few moments of brilliance they seemed to spend most of the game playing ping-pong. The first goal was a fluky own-goal that really never should have happened; the second was earned (although much more by substitute Eljero Elia, the most dynamic Dutch player on the pitch, than by credited goal scorer Dirk Kuyt, who easily poached the goal after Elia hit the post). All in all I was severely disappointed; even if this game was never going to be the back-and-forth of Ghana-Serbia, at least I hoped the Dutch could run free, but Denmark's packed midfield helped make things boring for everyone. The real question now is who the second team in this group will be; Denmark probably seemed like the favorites coming in, but I'd give Cameroon a very good shot now. Although let's see if they beat Japan in the game that's about to start.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
World Cup 2010: Days Two and Three
In spite of being in Indiana for a wedding for most of the weekend, I was actually able to see the majority of the six games. Let's recap.
South Korea 2-0 Greece
Most of the games I'm going to be able to watch are the ones that start at 6:30 am. Which is a shame, because at 6:30 am I am not always fully coherent (that, and the fact that many of the early games look kind of mediocre on paper). As such I don't recall a ton about this game - what I can tell you is that South Korea played outstanding technical football, with crisp passes and coordinated attacks, and Greece just looked awful. The Koreans took an early lead with a goal in the seventh minute and Greece really never seemed much of a threat to score. This is only Greece's second World Cup appearance, amazingly; in their first, USA '94, they didn't score a single goal. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they repeated that feat here.
Argentina 1-0 Nigeria
Group B should be really interesting. Argentina were probably the better side in this game, but Nigeria looked decent on offense; they just couldn't find the net. Their defense left more to be desired, but we're talking about a team in Argentina that runs out two of the best scorers in Spain and one of the best scorers in England at the front. The goalie, Enyeama, did bail out his defense on more than a couple of occasions. I'm a little worried if I'm Argentina about the inability of the team to score after Gabriel Heinze's early rocket header, given the struggles of the Nigerian defense, although since I have no doubt they're going to pound Greece, advancing from the group won't be an issue.
USA 1-1 England
Because we had to leave the hotel at 3 pm Central to get to the wedding, I missed the last 15-20 minutes of this game, but I saw all the key stuff. The US sure loves conceding early goals in the World Cup, don't they? Just ask Jan Koller. And Emmanuel Olisadebe (and Pawel Kryszalowicz). And Slobodan Komljenovic. Those four guys all scored goals in the first five minutes against the US in the last three World Cups, and now you can add Steven Gerrard's name to that list, following an absolutely woeful piece of defending that left me thinking it was going to be an extraordinarily long afternoon. Fortunately, things settled down, and a game that had "Czech Republic 3-0 USA" written all over it turned into a game more like "Italy 1-1 USA," albeit without all the red cards. Clint Dempsey's goal was, of course, a lucky break, but you make your own luck to some extent, and the Americans could easily have gone up 2-1 had Robert Green not later been able to deflect Jozy Altidore's shot off the post. The US also did a good job of mostly taking Wayne Rooney out of the match; while the English were unsurprisingly able to put together a number of dangerous attacks - and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't terrified every time England pushed forward on anything resembling a break - the US held their own and had some good chances against a sometimes porous English back line. I'm perfectly happy with a point, especially after that start, and I think it was plenty deserved for both teams.
Slovenia 1-0 Algeria
This was always destined to look like the odd match out in the group - neither England nor the US playing, two of the lower-rated teams in the entire field going at it - but it did not disappoint that billing. While the fact that it kicked off at 6:30 am undoubtedly contributed, I fell asleep for 20 minutes or so during the second half, which does not say much for the quality of play. I didn't feel confident in either side's ability to mount threatening attacks; while Slovenia's defense is supposed to be pretty good, I'm not sure what it says about their offense that it took 79 minutes to break down what never looked like a particularly strong Algerian defense, and the goal was exceptionally soft (more so than Dempsey's, I would argue). While I wouldn't encourage the US to take either of these teams lightly, I didn't come away from this match thinking that either team had a shot to come out of the group. The media has been making a big deal about how the US wanted a goalless draw here and how now Slovenia are atop the group... um, who cares? If the US beat Slovenia and Algeria - and based on the level of play in this game they should do so handily if playing like they're capable of doing - the result here is completely irrelevant. Slovenia can't advance with just three points, so maybe wait until they're threatening to draw (or somehow beat) the US or England before we talk about how Slovenia might advance. To me this game did nothing but solidify the status of the US and England as favorites to advance.
Ghana 1-0 Serbia
A completely deserved result in my book. For a long time I was worried this game was headed for nil-nil, which would have been a real shame; I think the nil-nil draw is one of the things about soccer that the average American sees and just turns up their nose at. Ties are bad enough, but the game ended without anyone scoring? And yet with the possible exception of USA-England, I didn't see a better end-to-end game in the first three days of the tournament. While I love the World Cup, its high-stakes nature - even in the group stage, a single loss is often devastating to your chances of advancing - means that a lot of teams often play cautiously, especially in their openers, spending a lot of time in the midfield while looking for openings to attack. Serbia and Ghana, meanwhile, were flying up and down the pitch from the word go. It was a great game to watch and would have been even had no one scored. But then Serbia went down to ten men - deservedly - and amazingly the game got even more exciting as they somehow had many of their best chances in the few minutes after the dismissal. Finally a clear handball in the box earned Ghana a penalty, which they converted. This group is clearly Germany's to win, but if Ghana plays like this against Australia in their next match, I expect they'll be advancing as well.
Germany 4-0 Australia
An absolutely brutal result that probably ended Australia's World Cup just as it was beginning. After a 3-1 loss to the US in a friendly last week, Australia insisted they would be ready for this game, but the Germans absolutely throttled them. Maybe Germany is just that good - but even before Australia actually went down to ten men (via a harsh straight red card to Tim Cahill), they already seemed shorthanded. The Australians seemed to be trying to make regular use of the offside trap, but while it worked a few times on young striker Mesut Özil, Miroslav Klose was too experienced to be fooled, scoring one goal and coming up just short of at least two more. (As someone who watched the US in 2006, trust me - the offside trap is just an awful, negative style of defense, and the soccer gods must hate it because it always breaks down at least once.) While the Germans probably won't be quite this dominant throughout, this was an impressive display and at this point I'd be a bit surprised if they didn't take all nine points. Meanwhile, Australia simply have to win their next two games; with their GD already at -4, winning a tiebreaker will be next to impossible. Assuming Germany win out, Australia could advance by beating Ghana and drawing Serbia, but they're in a big hole early and even allowing for Germany being really, really good, the Australia I saw today will be hard-pressed to beat anyone, especially after the display that Ghana and Serbia put on.
With work back on tomorrow, here are the games I expect to be able to watch live this week:
Monday: Netherlands v. Denmark
Tuesday: New Zealand v. Slovakia
Wednesday: Honduras v. Chile
Thursday: Argentina v. South Korea
Friday: Germany v. Serbia; Slovenia v. United States
Saturday: Netherlands v. Japan; Ghana v. Australia; part of Cameroon v. Denmark
Sunday: Slovakia v. Paraguay
Not a ton of winners in there, though I think Netherlands-Denmark should be a good tilt, Argentina-South Korea has real potential, I'm of course looking forward to the US game, and Ghana-Australia could be good if Australia wake up. I will make an effort to "live blog" at least some of these games.
South Korea 2-0 Greece
Most of the games I'm going to be able to watch are the ones that start at 6:30 am. Which is a shame, because at 6:30 am I am not always fully coherent (that, and the fact that many of the early games look kind of mediocre on paper). As such I don't recall a ton about this game - what I can tell you is that South Korea played outstanding technical football, with crisp passes and coordinated attacks, and Greece just looked awful. The Koreans took an early lead with a goal in the seventh minute and Greece really never seemed much of a threat to score. This is only Greece's second World Cup appearance, amazingly; in their first, USA '94, they didn't score a single goal. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they repeated that feat here.
Argentina 1-0 Nigeria
Group B should be really interesting. Argentina were probably the better side in this game, but Nigeria looked decent on offense; they just couldn't find the net. Their defense left more to be desired, but we're talking about a team in Argentina that runs out two of the best scorers in Spain and one of the best scorers in England at the front. The goalie, Enyeama, did bail out his defense on more than a couple of occasions. I'm a little worried if I'm Argentina about the inability of the team to score after Gabriel Heinze's early rocket header, given the struggles of the Nigerian defense, although since I have no doubt they're going to pound Greece, advancing from the group won't be an issue.
USA 1-1 England
Because we had to leave the hotel at 3 pm Central to get to the wedding, I missed the last 15-20 minutes of this game, but I saw all the key stuff. The US sure loves conceding early goals in the World Cup, don't they? Just ask Jan Koller. And Emmanuel Olisadebe (and Pawel Kryszalowicz). And Slobodan Komljenovic. Those four guys all scored goals in the first five minutes against the US in the last three World Cups, and now you can add Steven Gerrard's name to that list, following an absolutely woeful piece of defending that left me thinking it was going to be an extraordinarily long afternoon. Fortunately, things settled down, and a game that had "Czech Republic 3-0 USA" written all over it turned into a game more like "Italy 1-1 USA," albeit without all the red cards. Clint Dempsey's goal was, of course, a lucky break, but you make your own luck to some extent, and the Americans could easily have gone up 2-1 had Robert Green not later been able to deflect Jozy Altidore's shot off the post. The US also did a good job of mostly taking Wayne Rooney out of the match; while the English were unsurprisingly able to put together a number of dangerous attacks - and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't terrified every time England pushed forward on anything resembling a break - the US held their own and had some good chances against a sometimes porous English back line. I'm perfectly happy with a point, especially after that start, and I think it was plenty deserved for both teams.
Slovenia 1-0 Algeria
This was always destined to look like the odd match out in the group - neither England nor the US playing, two of the lower-rated teams in the entire field going at it - but it did not disappoint that billing. While the fact that it kicked off at 6:30 am undoubtedly contributed, I fell asleep for 20 minutes or so during the second half, which does not say much for the quality of play. I didn't feel confident in either side's ability to mount threatening attacks; while Slovenia's defense is supposed to be pretty good, I'm not sure what it says about their offense that it took 79 minutes to break down what never looked like a particularly strong Algerian defense, and the goal was exceptionally soft (more so than Dempsey's, I would argue). While I wouldn't encourage the US to take either of these teams lightly, I didn't come away from this match thinking that either team had a shot to come out of the group. The media has been making a big deal about how the US wanted a goalless draw here and how now Slovenia are atop the group... um, who cares? If the US beat Slovenia and Algeria - and based on the level of play in this game they should do so handily if playing like they're capable of doing - the result here is completely irrelevant. Slovenia can't advance with just three points, so maybe wait until they're threatening to draw (or somehow beat) the US or England before we talk about how Slovenia might advance. To me this game did nothing but solidify the status of the US and England as favorites to advance.
Ghana 1-0 Serbia
A completely deserved result in my book. For a long time I was worried this game was headed for nil-nil, which would have been a real shame; I think the nil-nil draw is one of the things about soccer that the average American sees and just turns up their nose at. Ties are bad enough, but the game ended without anyone scoring? And yet with the possible exception of USA-England, I didn't see a better end-to-end game in the first three days of the tournament. While I love the World Cup, its high-stakes nature - even in the group stage, a single loss is often devastating to your chances of advancing - means that a lot of teams often play cautiously, especially in their openers, spending a lot of time in the midfield while looking for openings to attack. Serbia and Ghana, meanwhile, were flying up and down the pitch from the word go. It was a great game to watch and would have been even had no one scored. But then Serbia went down to ten men - deservedly - and amazingly the game got even more exciting as they somehow had many of their best chances in the few minutes after the dismissal. Finally a clear handball in the box earned Ghana a penalty, which they converted. This group is clearly Germany's to win, but if Ghana plays like this against Australia in their next match, I expect they'll be advancing as well.
Germany 4-0 Australia
An absolutely brutal result that probably ended Australia's World Cup just as it was beginning. After a 3-1 loss to the US in a friendly last week, Australia insisted they would be ready for this game, but the Germans absolutely throttled them. Maybe Germany is just that good - but even before Australia actually went down to ten men (via a harsh straight red card to Tim Cahill), they already seemed shorthanded. The Australians seemed to be trying to make regular use of the offside trap, but while it worked a few times on young striker Mesut Özil, Miroslav Klose was too experienced to be fooled, scoring one goal and coming up just short of at least two more. (As someone who watched the US in 2006, trust me - the offside trap is just an awful, negative style of defense, and the soccer gods must hate it because it always breaks down at least once.) While the Germans probably won't be quite this dominant throughout, this was an impressive display and at this point I'd be a bit surprised if they didn't take all nine points. Meanwhile, Australia simply have to win their next two games; with their GD already at -4, winning a tiebreaker will be next to impossible. Assuming Germany win out, Australia could advance by beating Ghana and drawing Serbia, but they're in a big hole early and even allowing for Germany being really, really good, the Australia I saw today will be hard-pressed to beat anyone, especially after the display that Ghana and Serbia put on.
With work back on tomorrow, here are the games I expect to be able to watch live this week:
Monday: Netherlands v. Denmark
Tuesday: New Zealand v. Slovakia
Wednesday: Honduras v. Chile
Thursday: Argentina v. South Korea
Friday: Germany v. Serbia; Slovenia v. United States
Saturday: Netherlands v. Japan; Ghana v. Australia; part of Cameroon v. Denmark
Sunday: Slovakia v. Paraguay
Not a ton of winners in there, though I think Netherlands-Denmark should be a good tilt, Argentina-South Korea has real potential, I'm of course looking forward to the US game, and Ghana-Australia could be good if Australia wake up. I will make an effort to "live blog" at least some of these games.
Friday, June 11, 2010
World Cup 2010: Day One
Because I have a job, watching every game of the World Cup isn't going to be an option this year (as it wasn't in 2006, but could have been in '02 were they not all played overnight). However, I intend to watch as much as I can, which will probably come down to one game a day plus all of the American games, at least during the group stages. For some of the games I might do a live-blog of sorts (it'll post after the game ends, but reactions will be written down live). Anyway, here's what I saw on day one.
South Africa 1-1 Mexico
I actually only was able to catch the first hour or so of the game and so missed Mexico's tying goal in the 79th. I think this is a fair result for both teams; South Africa looked like they had no business being in this tournament for most of the first half, but seemed to put things together a bit after the break, at least enough to generate a few decent chances in addition to their goal, a nice counterattack that came largely against the run of play. Mexico were probably the better side overall but never really seemed that threatening.
I didn't see France-Uruguay but I don't seem to have missed much. Eight years to the day that France were eliminated from the '02 World Cup without having scored a single goal, the two nations played another goalless draw, just as they did five days earlier in that Cup in a game that was probably the least exciting of its tournament.
More detailed posts will come in following days when I get to watch a bit more. I have to go to a wedding this weekend so you'll probably get two posts on Sunday, because I'm sure anyone is reading this.
South Africa 1-1 Mexico
I actually only was able to catch the first hour or so of the game and so missed Mexico's tying goal in the 79th. I think this is a fair result for both teams; South Africa looked like they had no business being in this tournament for most of the first half, but seemed to put things together a bit after the break, at least enough to generate a few decent chances in addition to their goal, a nice counterattack that came largely against the run of play. Mexico were probably the better side overall but never really seemed that threatening.
I didn't see France-Uruguay but I don't seem to have missed much. Eight years to the day that France were eliminated from the '02 World Cup without having scored a single goal, the two nations played another goalless draw, just as they did five days earlier in that Cup in a game that was probably the least exciting of its tournament.
More detailed posts will come in following days when I get to watch a bit more. I have to go to a wedding this weekend so you'll probably get two posts on Sunday, because I'm sure anyone is reading this.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Marked for Death
Blame Roman Abramovich. He took over Chelsea in June 2003, and at the end of the 2003-2004 campaign the club found itself in second place in the Premiership. The following year, they won the league. Manchester City's new owners likely had their sights set on this level of improvement when they took over in the summer of 2008 and rather shockingly added Robinho, but the club finished a distant 10th, worse even than the previous season under Sven-Goran Eriksson. This year, following an enormous spending spree on players like Gareth Barry, Carlos Tevez, Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Adebayor, the club sits in 6th, but a string of draws that kept City anchored just outside of the Champions League places likely sealed Mark Hughes' fate.
Of course, everyone seems to forget that in 2002-2003, Chelsea finished fourth. It's not like Abramovich led Fulham to a title in two seasons. For all the lip service that the owners believed in Mark Hughes and believed in City as a project, in the end they were scarcely more patient than Thaksin Shinawatra, who stated before the 2007-08 season that a top-ten finish would please him and then sacked Eriksson for finishing ninth and making Europe (if only via the Fair Play League). Hughes ended up with less than a season and a half, in spite of having City just a few points shy of the top four with a game in hand and into the semifinals of the Carling Cup.
Hughes was also quite popular with many of the players, particularly the British and Irish ones, with Shay Given and Hughes' countryman Craig Bellamy evidently leading a dressing-room revolt when they got the news. At the same time, he may not have been nearly as popular with other players - not least Robinho - and it's entirely possible that the owners felt Hughes simply did not have the stature to attract the major international stars they were hoping to bring to City. Various players linked with moves had laughed them off, some saying that City did not seem a serious club at the moment. Hiring Mancini, a major international manager with massive domestic success in Serie A, was probably seen as a step in that direction; reports of attempts to lure Guus Hiddink or Jose Mourinho fall under the same category.
And they might be right about this. There is little doubt that Hughes is a capable Premiership manager, but City do not wish to be Blackburn. The only British manager who seems to draw major international stars is Alex Ferguson, and even he couldn't hang onto Cristiano Ronaldo. On the other hand, maybe it's just the weather in England; most players, given a choice, seem to prefer Spain or Italy, in spite of the millions on offer in the Premiership.
Ultimately, whether or not this was a good idea will depend on Roberto Mancini (and, to perhaps not much less an extent, on Brian Kidd). If he leads Man City to a Carling Cup title and the top four, it will be a success - maybe Mark Hughes could still have done those things, but their achievement would make most Man City fans forgiving of his ouster. If City fall to United at the next Carling hurdle and end up in the Europa League or, even worse, out of Europe once more, it will have been an unmitigated disaster. Mancini or no, what is really needed to achieve these things is a serious shoring up of the defense, especially with Joleon Lescott now on the sidelines and Kolo Toure reportedly angling to find a way back to Spain. Drumming Richard Dunne out of the club in August is looking dumber by the day.
The best-case scenario is that Mancini can guide City into the top four, and the combination of Champions League football and an international manager will prove sufficiently enticing to the top talent City's owners want to bring into the side. The worst case is that Mancini proves no more successful and City become just another revolving-door for managers and players, with the fans never knowing who's coming and going from one month to the next.
I feel bad for Mark Hughes. Much like with Eriksson, and really with Stuart Pearce before him, I don't think he was fired for reasons that were all down to him. The defense needed strengthening; how much were their struggles really down to Hughes? How much difference will Mancini make without a big January buying spree that could have happened under Hughes anyway? Ultimately, Mancini needs to prove that he can lure international stars. If he's no more successful at that, it's unlikely that this move will make any difference, aside from fracturing the dressing room. And that would really just be a shame.
Of course, everyone seems to forget that in 2002-2003, Chelsea finished fourth. It's not like Abramovich led Fulham to a title in two seasons. For all the lip service that the owners believed in Mark Hughes and believed in City as a project, in the end they were scarcely more patient than Thaksin Shinawatra, who stated before the 2007-08 season that a top-ten finish would please him and then sacked Eriksson for finishing ninth and making Europe (if only via the Fair Play League). Hughes ended up with less than a season and a half, in spite of having City just a few points shy of the top four with a game in hand and into the semifinals of the Carling Cup.
Hughes was also quite popular with many of the players, particularly the British and Irish ones, with Shay Given and Hughes' countryman Craig Bellamy evidently leading a dressing-room revolt when they got the news. At the same time, he may not have been nearly as popular with other players - not least Robinho - and it's entirely possible that the owners felt Hughes simply did not have the stature to attract the major international stars they were hoping to bring to City. Various players linked with moves had laughed them off, some saying that City did not seem a serious club at the moment. Hiring Mancini, a major international manager with massive domestic success in Serie A, was probably seen as a step in that direction; reports of attempts to lure Guus Hiddink or Jose Mourinho fall under the same category.
And they might be right about this. There is little doubt that Hughes is a capable Premiership manager, but City do not wish to be Blackburn. The only British manager who seems to draw major international stars is Alex Ferguson, and even he couldn't hang onto Cristiano Ronaldo. On the other hand, maybe it's just the weather in England; most players, given a choice, seem to prefer Spain or Italy, in spite of the millions on offer in the Premiership.
Ultimately, whether or not this was a good idea will depend on Roberto Mancini (and, to perhaps not much less an extent, on Brian Kidd). If he leads Man City to a Carling Cup title and the top four, it will be a success - maybe Mark Hughes could still have done those things, but their achievement would make most Man City fans forgiving of his ouster. If City fall to United at the next Carling hurdle and end up in the Europa League or, even worse, out of Europe once more, it will have been an unmitigated disaster. Mancini or no, what is really needed to achieve these things is a serious shoring up of the defense, especially with Joleon Lescott now on the sidelines and Kolo Toure reportedly angling to find a way back to Spain. Drumming Richard Dunne out of the club in August is looking dumber by the day.
The best-case scenario is that Mancini can guide City into the top four, and the combination of Champions League football and an international manager will prove sufficiently enticing to the top talent City's owners want to bring into the side. The worst case is that Mancini proves no more successful and City become just another revolving-door for managers and players, with the fans never knowing who's coming and going from one month to the next.
I feel bad for Mark Hughes. Much like with Eriksson, and really with Stuart Pearce before him, I don't think he was fired for reasons that were all down to him. The defense needed strengthening; how much were their struggles really down to Hughes? How much difference will Mancini make without a big January buying spree that could have happened under Hughes anyway? Ultimately, Mancini needs to prove that he can lure international stars. If he's no more successful at that, it's unlikely that this move will make any difference, aside from fracturing the dressing room. And that would really just be a shame.
Friday, December 04, 2009
The 2010 Draw, and Predictions
Hey, it's only been a year and a half since my last post. But no one reads this for my opinions on Man City and it's only now that we're really approaching 2010 hard-core. So let's do this.
Group A
South Africa
Mexico
Uruguay
France
The official FIFA world rankings only go back to 1993, which means we can only look at the last four World Cups when analyzing this next stat, but barring a miracle leap, South Africa's FIFA ranking will be the lowest ever for a host nation. Even in May 1994 the USA were ranked the #23 team in the world; in May 2002 the Japanese and South Koreans were #32 and #40 respectively. France were 18th in 1998; Germany were 19th in 2006. South Africa? As of November 2009's rankings, they're 86th, just behind Haiti and just ahead of Qatar. They're also 17th in Africa; in qualifying (which they participated in because it doubled as qualifying for the African Cup of Nations), they were eliminated in the second round, losing twice to Nigeria as well as to noted non-power Sierra Leone (currently 141st in the world). Going on results alone, they wouldn't have made this Cup, their third ever, in a million years.
That's the prize that comes with being the host nation, of course, though Mexico, Uruguay and France might argue that they were rewarded instead. Certainly France have to consider themselves one of the luckiest teams in the draw; after making it into the field by the skin of their hands (see what I did there?), Les Bleus have drawn the only weak team from the seed pot and avoided all of their European compatriots.
Mexico and Uruguay are both top 20 teams in the latest rankings, so it's not all fun and games for France, and their recent World Cup history is a bit patchy - a loss at the final hurdle of qualifying to miss the '94 Cup, winners as hosts in '98, a horrible crashout without scoring a single goal in '02, a shocking run to the final game in '06. By that standard we should be due for another poor showing, and their qualifying struggle might indicate as much. Mexico are certainly no pushovers, making the last 16 in each of the last four World Cups (though failing to advance in the knockouts each time), and I like them to get out of the group here. As for who's joining them? Well, South Africa would make history if they became the first host nation not to make it out of the group stages (even if they are almost certainly the weakest host nation in history), and they did seem to acquit themselves at the Confederations Cup. That said, I can't really justify picking them to advance; sooner or later that host streak has to end, and it likely does so here. I'll say France advance, although Uruguay wouldn't surprise me.
Group B
Argentina
Nigeria
South Korea
Greece
Were South Korea not all the way down at #52 in the latest rankings, this might look something like a Group of Death (which would have made it arguably the third Cup in a row in which Argentina ended up there). But they are, and they aren't playing at home, so this doesn't seem like their Cup. No one seems quite sure what to expect out of Nigeria or Greece either, in spite of the latter being ranked 12th. Really, even Argentina are a bit of a mystery given their slog through CONMEBOL qualifying. Aside from Argentina not advancing, little out of this group would surprise me. Nigeria are playing on their home continent, and they made the Olympic finals in 2008 (although, as we all know, not every nation takes those wholly seriously), so I could see them making it out as well.
Group C
England
United States
Algeria
Slovenia
After getting drawn into a Group of Near-Death in 2006, the Americans seem to have lucked out here. England, while #9 in the world, were the lowest ranked of the seeds aside from South Africa. Ghana and Paraguay are the only teams in the CONMEBOL/CAF pot ranked lower than Algeria, and Slovenia are #33 in the world only after a bizarre 16-spot jump following their playoff defeat of Russia. Nevertheless, out of the 13 UEFA teams in the field, they're 12th in the rankings, ahead of only Slovakia (and that by a single point). It's not that these teams are going to be pushovers, but can you imagine if this group were England-USA-Ivory Coast-Portugal instead? That probably would have been the Group of Death.
You have to like the US' chances to advance regardless, simply because this World Cup isn't in Europe. Here's a fun fact: all-time, here are the Americans' records in World Cups hosted in Europe as opposed to those hosted everywhere else:
Europe (1934, 1990, 1998, 2006): 0-1-9, -16 GD
Elsewhere (1930, 1950, 1994, 2002): 6-2-7, -4 GD
So maybe they're not a juggernaut outside of Europe, but I think we can all agree that's a pretty significant difference. Add to that a group that isn't particularly strong, and I have to like the US' chances of advancing. England should also get out of the group barring a surprise.
Group D
Germany
Australia
Serbia
Ghana
Serbia (and Montenegro, at the time) were the surprise of 2006 qualifying, but in the actual tournament they wound up in the Group of Death and failed to pick up a single point. This time things seem a little more open. Ghana and Australia were both darlings of the '06 tournament, making the knockouts, but neither is dominant; Ghana, at #37, is one of the lowest-ranked nations in the field. Germany will almost certainly make it out of this group; beyond that, any of the other three is possible, though I would install Australia as the slight favorite.
Group E
Netherlands
Denmark
Japan
Cameroon
Cameroon became the first African nation to reach the quarterfinals of a World Cup, in 1990, but they've got just one win and no knockout appearances since. They're ranked 11th in the world right now, though, and in a group of only moderate difficulty on "home" soil, expectations will be high. The same can probably be said for the Dutch, #3 in the world and one of only two or three nations with a serious claim to the "best footballing nation never to win a World Cup" mantle. The Danes sit well back at #26, one of UEFA's weaker entrants by ranking, though they were 15th in the world this summer and beat Portugal in Lisbon en route to winning their qualifying group outright. Japan, currently languishing at 43rd in the world, seem unlikely to finish anywhere other than bottom of this group. Cameroon and the Netherlands are my picks to advance.
Group F
Italy
Paraguay
New Zealand
Slovakia
The reigning champs have been handed an almost insultingly easy draw. While Paraguay are making their fourth straight appearance and reached the knockouts in both 1998 and 2002, most of their key qualifying scalps (wins over Brazil and Argentina in particular) came at home. New Zealand might be the weakest team in the field; they're ranked #77, which isn't the outright worst, but when you add to that their play in Oceania, in which most nations are ranked below #150, they don't exactly get tested much. (To be fair, they did have to win a playoff to get here, but it came against Bahrain, hardly a powerhouse.) Only two years ago the Kiwis were ranked #156 themselves. They're a nice story but will almost certainly finish last. Slovakia are dead last among the UEFA teams in FIFA's rankings; the outcome of the group will probably be determined by their game with Paraguay. I like Italy and Paraguay to advance.
Group G
Brazil
North Korea
Ivory Coast
Portugal
If there is to be a Group of Death this year, this is probably it, though the presence of North Korea (at #84, the lowest-ranked team that played their way in) sticks out like a sore thumb. We're surely going to hear all kinds of talk about their shock win over Italy in 1966, and the 3-0 lead they had on Portugal before falling 5-3, but that was 44 years ago. This North Korea will almost certainly get worked like a speedbag by their more talented opponents. Here, too, the outcome of the group will probably come down to one game: Portugal-Ivory Coast. I have high hopes for the entertainment value of that game, though unfortunately the fact that it comes first on Portugal's schedule means that their third game versus Brazil will likely not be as good as it could be. I'll take the two Portuguese-speaking nations to advance here, though Ivory Coast certainly have a shot.
Group H
Spain
Switzerland
Honduras
Chile
Perhaps the most intriguing group. Spain are the best team in the world but have a long history of failure in the World Cup, lining up with the Dutch to lay claim to the "best footballing nation never to win a World Cup" title. While they regularly make the knockouts, only once (1950) have they made it past the quarterfinals. Now they're #1 in the FIFA rankings and the defending European champions; much more will be expected. Winning this group should be no problem; it's second place that will be hotly contested. Switzerland, Honduras and Chile are all relatively unknown teams on the larger world scale, but all might qualify for the title of "feistiest team in the 2010 World Cup." Chile are 17th in the world and Switzerland are 18th; Honduras are a distant 38th but were an exciting side during CONCACAF qualifying. Anyone could come second in this group, but I give the Swiss a slight edge based on their strong showing in 2006 and group win in qualifying thanks to a sweep of Greece (in spite of a somewhat embarrassing home loss to minnows Luxembourg).
Group A
South Africa
Mexico
Uruguay
France
The official FIFA world rankings only go back to 1993, which means we can only look at the last four World Cups when analyzing this next stat, but barring a miracle leap, South Africa's FIFA ranking will be the lowest ever for a host nation. Even in May 1994 the USA were ranked the #23 team in the world; in May 2002 the Japanese and South Koreans were #32 and #40 respectively. France were 18th in 1998; Germany were 19th in 2006. South Africa? As of November 2009's rankings, they're 86th, just behind Haiti and just ahead of Qatar. They're also 17th in Africa; in qualifying (which they participated in because it doubled as qualifying for the African Cup of Nations), they were eliminated in the second round, losing twice to Nigeria as well as to noted non-power Sierra Leone (currently 141st in the world). Going on results alone, they wouldn't have made this Cup, their third ever, in a million years.
That's the prize that comes with being the host nation, of course, though Mexico, Uruguay and France might argue that they were rewarded instead. Certainly France have to consider themselves one of the luckiest teams in the draw; after making it into the field by the skin of their hands (see what I did there?), Les Bleus have drawn the only weak team from the seed pot and avoided all of their European compatriots.
Mexico and Uruguay are both top 20 teams in the latest rankings, so it's not all fun and games for France, and their recent World Cup history is a bit patchy - a loss at the final hurdle of qualifying to miss the '94 Cup, winners as hosts in '98, a horrible crashout without scoring a single goal in '02, a shocking run to the final game in '06. By that standard we should be due for another poor showing, and their qualifying struggle might indicate as much. Mexico are certainly no pushovers, making the last 16 in each of the last four World Cups (though failing to advance in the knockouts each time), and I like them to get out of the group here. As for who's joining them? Well, South Africa would make history if they became the first host nation not to make it out of the group stages (even if they are almost certainly the weakest host nation in history), and they did seem to acquit themselves at the Confederations Cup. That said, I can't really justify picking them to advance; sooner or later that host streak has to end, and it likely does so here. I'll say France advance, although Uruguay wouldn't surprise me.
Group B
Argentina
Nigeria
South Korea
Greece
Were South Korea not all the way down at #52 in the latest rankings, this might look something like a Group of Death (which would have made it arguably the third Cup in a row in which Argentina ended up there). But they are, and they aren't playing at home, so this doesn't seem like their Cup. No one seems quite sure what to expect out of Nigeria or Greece either, in spite of the latter being ranked 12th. Really, even Argentina are a bit of a mystery given their slog through CONMEBOL qualifying. Aside from Argentina not advancing, little out of this group would surprise me. Nigeria are playing on their home continent, and they made the Olympic finals in 2008 (although, as we all know, not every nation takes those wholly seriously), so I could see them making it out as well.
Group C
England
United States
Algeria
Slovenia
After getting drawn into a Group of Near-Death in 2006, the Americans seem to have lucked out here. England, while #9 in the world, were the lowest ranked of the seeds aside from South Africa. Ghana and Paraguay are the only teams in the CONMEBOL/CAF pot ranked lower than Algeria, and Slovenia are #33 in the world only after a bizarre 16-spot jump following their playoff defeat of Russia. Nevertheless, out of the 13 UEFA teams in the field, they're 12th in the rankings, ahead of only Slovakia (and that by a single point). It's not that these teams are going to be pushovers, but can you imagine if this group were England-USA-Ivory Coast-Portugal instead? That probably would have been the Group of Death.
You have to like the US' chances to advance regardless, simply because this World Cup isn't in Europe. Here's a fun fact: all-time, here are the Americans' records in World Cups hosted in Europe as opposed to those hosted everywhere else:
Europe (1934, 1990, 1998, 2006): 0-1-9, -16 GD
Elsewhere (1930, 1950, 1994, 2002): 6-2-7, -4 GD
So maybe they're not a juggernaut outside of Europe, but I think we can all agree that's a pretty significant difference. Add to that a group that isn't particularly strong, and I have to like the US' chances of advancing. England should also get out of the group barring a surprise.
Group D
Germany
Australia
Serbia
Ghana
Serbia (and Montenegro, at the time) were the surprise of 2006 qualifying, but in the actual tournament they wound up in the Group of Death and failed to pick up a single point. This time things seem a little more open. Ghana and Australia were both darlings of the '06 tournament, making the knockouts, but neither is dominant; Ghana, at #37, is one of the lowest-ranked nations in the field. Germany will almost certainly make it out of this group; beyond that, any of the other three is possible, though I would install Australia as the slight favorite.
Group E
Netherlands
Denmark
Japan
Cameroon
Cameroon became the first African nation to reach the quarterfinals of a World Cup, in 1990, but they've got just one win and no knockout appearances since. They're ranked 11th in the world right now, though, and in a group of only moderate difficulty on "home" soil, expectations will be high. The same can probably be said for the Dutch, #3 in the world and one of only two or three nations with a serious claim to the "best footballing nation never to win a World Cup" mantle. The Danes sit well back at #26, one of UEFA's weaker entrants by ranking, though they were 15th in the world this summer and beat Portugal in Lisbon en route to winning their qualifying group outright. Japan, currently languishing at 43rd in the world, seem unlikely to finish anywhere other than bottom of this group. Cameroon and the Netherlands are my picks to advance.
Group F
Italy
Paraguay
New Zealand
Slovakia
The reigning champs have been handed an almost insultingly easy draw. While Paraguay are making their fourth straight appearance and reached the knockouts in both 1998 and 2002, most of their key qualifying scalps (wins over Brazil and Argentina in particular) came at home. New Zealand might be the weakest team in the field; they're ranked #77, which isn't the outright worst, but when you add to that their play in Oceania, in which most nations are ranked below #150, they don't exactly get tested much. (To be fair, they did have to win a playoff to get here, but it came against Bahrain, hardly a powerhouse.) Only two years ago the Kiwis were ranked #156 themselves. They're a nice story but will almost certainly finish last. Slovakia are dead last among the UEFA teams in FIFA's rankings; the outcome of the group will probably be determined by their game with Paraguay. I like Italy and Paraguay to advance.
Group G
Brazil
North Korea
Ivory Coast
Portugal
If there is to be a Group of Death this year, this is probably it, though the presence of North Korea (at #84, the lowest-ranked team that played their way in) sticks out like a sore thumb. We're surely going to hear all kinds of talk about their shock win over Italy in 1966, and the 3-0 lead they had on Portugal before falling 5-3, but that was 44 years ago. This North Korea will almost certainly get worked like a speedbag by their more talented opponents. Here, too, the outcome of the group will probably come down to one game: Portugal-Ivory Coast. I have high hopes for the entertainment value of that game, though unfortunately the fact that it comes first on Portugal's schedule means that their third game versus Brazil will likely not be as good as it could be. I'll take the two Portuguese-speaking nations to advance here, though Ivory Coast certainly have a shot.
Group H
Spain
Switzerland
Honduras
Chile
Perhaps the most intriguing group. Spain are the best team in the world but have a long history of failure in the World Cup, lining up with the Dutch to lay claim to the "best footballing nation never to win a World Cup" title. While they regularly make the knockouts, only once (1950) have they made it past the quarterfinals. Now they're #1 in the FIFA rankings and the defending European champions; much more will be expected. Winning this group should be no problem; it's second place that will be hotly contested. Switzerland, Honduras and Chile are all relatively unknown teams on the larger world scale, but all might qualify for the title of "feistiest team in the 2010 World Cup." Chile are 17th in the world and Switzerland are 18th; Honduras are a distant 38th but were an exciting side during CONCACAF qualifying. Anyone could come second in this group, but I give the Swiss a slight edge based on their strong showing in 2006 and group win in qualifying thanks to a sweep of Greece (in spite of a somewhat embarrassing home loss to minnows Luxembourg).
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Hughes the man
While I was away on vacation, the Eriksson dismissal became official. Shinawatra said that the second half fall was simply too much for him to take, and while I think that's a bit reactionary - is it really the manager's fault, or was it to a large degree a lack of depth? - I guess he does have a point. Between the critical choke against Fulham and the 8-1 loss at Boro, City suffered the two worst possible ways to lose (a late collapse and a total blowout) down the end of a season in which they were in desperate need of points to stay alive in the European chase.
I still wouldn't have fired Eriksson, but you could certainly do worse as a replacement than Mark Hughes, who made Blackburn a fairly legitimate team (and one with which City routinely had trouble) in the last few years, including taking them to the UEFA Cup a couple of times, a task he's now handed with City. I'll also be interested to see what players are coming in - the rumors have Thaksin extremely interested in making Eastlands into Brazil North, but I'm not sure whether Ronaldinho is really the kind of player who'd fit in at City, having spent the last year or so looking fairly undisciplined and out of form at Barcelona. Jo, maybe more so. Something about Man City the last few years has sapped the life out of every striker they've brought in (even though the midfield has seemed talented), with the possible exception of Martin Petrov. Jo has been linked to Arsenal and AC Milan in the past, so, you know, he might actually be good. Of course, you never know what to expect from players playing in England for the first time, but at least Jo has been playing in Russia, where the weather is worse if anything.
One thing I do wonder about Hughes - his name has been mentioned as the leading favorite to replace Sir Alex Ferguson when the latter retires from United, something which could happen in the next few years or even sooner. What happens if United win the league again next year and Ferguson decides to walk away - and United approach Hughes? Four managers in four years for City? Not exactly the way to establish your club as a perennial top-six challenger.
I still wouldn't have fired Eriksson, but you could certainly do worse as a replacement than Mark Hughes, who made Blackburn a fairly legitimate team (and one with which City routinely had trouble) in the last few years, including taking them to the UEFA Cup a couple of times, a task he's now handed with City. I'll also be interested to see what players are coming in - the rumors have Thaksin extremely interested in making Eastlands into Brazil North, but I'm not sure whether Ronaldinho is really the kind of player who'd fit in at City, having spent the last year or so looking fairly undisciplined and out of form at Barcelona. Jo, maybe more so. Something about Man City the last few years has sapped the life out of every striker they've brought in (even though the midfield has seemed talented), with the possible exception of Martin Petrov. Jo has been linked to Arsenal and AC Milan in the past, so, you know, he might actually be good. Of course, you never know what to expect from players playing in England for the first time, but at least Jo has been playing in Russia, where the weather is worse if anything.
One thing I do wonder about Hughes - his name has been mentioned as the leading favorite to replace Sir Alex Ferguson when the latter retires from United, something which could happen in the next few years or even sooner. What happens if United win the league again next year and Ferguson decides to walk away - and United approach Hughes? Four managers in four years for City? Not exactly the way to establish your club as a perennial top-six challenger.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)